ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
13:44 NZD/USD: Expected to trade in a range between 0.5895 and 0.5930 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.5895 and 0.5930 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.5895 and 0.5930 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low. Odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD rose to a high of 0.5929 last Friday. Yesterday, Monday, when NZD was at 0.5910, we stated that 'although there is scope for NZD to rise further today, overbought conditions indicate that any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.5885/0.5935.' However, NZD traded between 0.5901 and 0.5929 before closing at 0.5908. The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect range trading today, most likely between 0.5895 and 0.5930." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (31 Jul, spot at 0.5905), we expected NZD to 'decline further to 0.5885, potentially reaching 0.5845.' After NZD dropped to a low of 0.5857 last Friday and then rebounded, we indicated yesterday (04 Aug, spot at 0.5910) that 'while our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5960 has not been breached yet, the slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low.' NZD subsequently traded in a quiet manner before closing at 0.5908 (-0.19%). Our view remains unchanged, but we are lowering the ‘strong resistance’ level to 0.5945 from 0.5960."
13:35 Oil prices under pressure after weak US data – Commerzbank
Oil prices fell by another 2% yesterday after already dropping significantly on Friday. Brent traded at just $68 per barrel at times. That is around $4 less than last Thursday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Oil prices fell by another 2% yesterday after already dropping significantly on Friday. Brent traded at just $68 per barrel at times. That is around $4 less than last Thursday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Oil prices are likely to rise again"The decision by the eight OPEC+ countries to increase Oil production by almost 550,000 barrels per day also in September had been expected in advance. However, statements made by OPEC+ representatives may have caused uncertainty. According to these statements, production could be increased further under certain conditions, even though current OPEC decisions do not allow for any further production increases until the end of 2026." "However, the recent weak US economic data is likely to have been more important, as it has reignited concerns about demand in the world's largest Oil-consuming country. In addition, market participants are likely to shift their focus increasingly to the oversupply looming in the autumn. The possible loss of Oil supplies from Russia is likely to prevent a further decline in prices. US President Trump is threatening to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian Oil if a ceasefire is not reached in Ukraine by the end of the week." "Overnight, Trump stepped up pressure on India, one of the most important buyers of Russian Oil. The market may believe that Trump will back down, as he did recently with copper tariffs. If he does not and the tariffs actually come into force, c. The further development of Oil prices therefore depends largely on Trump's decision, which is difficult to predict."
13:22 AUD/USD falls slightly as US Dollar trades steadily ahead of US Services PMI
The AUD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.6450 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair ticks down as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground, following the soft United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)-driven sell-off.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:22 USD/CNH firms near resistance as China’s stock index rebounds amid weak growth outlook – BBH
USD/CNH is firmer just under key resistance at 7.2000 and China’s stock index extended its rebound, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/CNH is firmer just under key resistance at 7.2000 and China’s stock index extended its rebound, BBH FX analysts report. USD/CNH firms near resistance as China’s stock index rebounds"China’s S&P Global Services PMI rose to a 14-month high at 52.6 in July vs. 50.6 in June driven by higher new business. In contrast, China’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - released last week - dropped to 49.5 in July vs. 50.4 in June, dragging the S&P Global China Composite PMI down to a two-month low at 50.8 vs. 51.3 in June.""China’s growth outlook remains soggy. China must shift its growth model toward one in which domestic consumption plays a greater role. However, three major structural constraints prevent any meaningful effort to increase the role consumption plays in China’s economy: low household income levels, high precautionary savings, and high levels of household debt." "As such, China will continue to lean heavily on infrastructure to hit its growth target. This is good for commodity prices but bad for China’s long-term economic health."
13:21 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range between 0.6455 and 0.6495 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range between 0.6455 and 0.6495. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a breach of 0.6520 would indicate that AUD is not breaking below 0.6405, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range between 0.6455 and 0.6495. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a breach of 0.6520 would indicate that AUD is not breaking below 0.6405, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum is slowing24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated the following after last Friday’s price movements: 'The price movements did not result in any significant increase in upward momentum. Rather than continuing to rise, AUD is more likely to trade sideways today, probably between 0.6430 and 0.6495.' Our view of sideways trading was not wrong, although AUD traded within a much narrower range than expected (0.6460/0.6489). The price action still appears to be part of a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6455 and 0.6495." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The following from our update yesterday (04 Aug, spot at 0.6465) is still valid: 'Last Thursday (31 Jul, spot at 0.6445), we indicated that AUD 'could potentially break below 0.6405 and test June’s low, near 0.6375.' We also indicated that 'to maintain the momentum buildup, AUD must hold below 0.6520 (‘strong resistance’ level).' After dropping to a low of 0.6419 on Friday, AUD rose sharply, reaching a high of 0.6493. Downward momentum is slowing, a breach of 0.6520 would indicate AUD is not breaking below 0.6405."
13:16 AUD/USD holds steady above 100-day average as mixed household spending data emerges – BBH
AUD/USD is holding above its 100-day moving average (0.6430), BBH FX analysts report.
AUD/USD is holding above its 100-day moving average (0.6430), BBH FX analysts report. AUD/USD steady above 100-day average amid mixed spending data"Australia June household spending report was mixed. On a current price basis, household spending rose less than expected by 0.5% m/m (consensus: 0.8%) vs. 1.0% in May driven entirely by spending on goods (1.3% m/m). Spending on services fell -0.5% m/m. In volume terms, household spending increased 0.7% q/q in Q2 vs. 0.5% in Q1 suggesting momentum in household consumption growth is picking up.""The RBA is poised to resume easing at its next August 12 meeting. RBA cash rate futures more than fully price-in a 25bps cut to 3.60%. Overall, RBA/Fed policy expectations still favor AUD/USD, with market pricing 80bps of RBA cuts vs. 110bps for the Fed."
13:14 Trump's poison pill on Swiss National Day – Commerzbank
Market participants with ties to Switzerland were probably not too pleased when the US administration announced new tariffs for a large number of countries at the end of last week: alongside Brazil, which will now have to pay significantly higher tariffs for political reason, Switzerland is the only
Market participants with ties to Switzerland were probably not too pleased when the US administration announced new tariffs for a large number of countries at the end of last week: alongside Brazil, which will now have to pay significantly higher tariffs for political reason, Switzerland is the only country to face significant tariff increases compared with Liberation Day. Rather than the 31% announced at the beginning of April, 39% will now be payable from the end of the week. This comes despite reports a few weeks ago that the deal was ready to be signed by Donald Trump. The fact that the announcement was made on Swiss National Day, or rather on the night before, added to the sour taste left in people's mouths, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Switzerland unlikely to respond with countermeasures"Since this new escalation, the blame game has begun in Swiss politics. Did the Swiss government misjudge the negotiations with the US and miscalculate with its offer? While the officials were not wrong to say that an agreement had been reached on most of the negotiations, as my colleague Volkmar emphasised a few weeks ago, unless there is agreement on all points, no deal will be reached, even if 95% agreement has been reached. Reports of an intense telephone conversation between the Swiss and US presidents on Thursday evening suggest that the US president expected an even better offer. The fact that Switzerland has already made a better offer per capita than other countries did not seem to matter. Trump probably sees Switzerland as extremely wealthy and considers the current account deficit to be so significant that he still expects more. The Swiss have probably hesitated to make an unrealistic offer, as other countries have done.""This is the worst-case scenario for Switzerland. In recent weeks, most of the major trading partners of the US have reached a deal thanks to enormous concessions that will keep tariffs at around 15%. Over the weekend, the US administration indicated that the tariffs are now final and that, while further negotiations are possible, they are unlikely to result in significant changes. This may be a new negotiating tactic, but since Switzerland is now one of the few remaining trading partners with higher tariffs, it does not make things any easier. It is extremely unlikely that Switzerland will respond with countermeasures. Instead, officials will probably improve their offer significantly, as reports yesterday of an agreement in the Swiss Federal Council suggest.""One thing should also be clear, however: there were very few scenarios in which the Swiss franc would have suffered from the escalations coming out of the White House. With such a poor negotiating position, however, it seems that we have now reached one of those scenarios. If the government manages to reach a deal in the near future, EUR/CHF should stabilise at our forecast of 0.93. However, if negotiations continue to escalate, the franc is likely to come under further pressure. For the time being, therefore, the risks for the franc are asymmetrically distributed."
13:05 USD/CAD is attempting to return above 1.3800 with weak Oil prices hurting the Loonie
The US Dollar is trimming losses on Tuesday, as the dust from the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report settles.
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The US Dollar appreciates moderately alongside higher US Treasury yields. The pair is testing levels above the 1.3800 mark, after bouncing at 1.3760 lows on Friday, still, well below last week’s highs, at 1.3880.Soft US data and dovish Fed rhetoric are limiting the USD’s recoveryUS data released on Monday showed a 4.8% contraction in Factory Orders in June, driven by a sharp decline in aircraft purchases. The final figures are slightly better than the 4.9% drop forecast by market analysts, yet a significant reversal from May’s 8.3% growthAlso on Monday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that the central bank should not wait too long to lower interest rates in light of the softening labour market. These comments contributed to feed hopes of Fed cuts in September, and put additional weight on the US Dollar’s recovery.Later today, the focus will be on the US Services activity data, which is expected to reveal some expansion in July, to offset the weak figures shown by the manufacturing sector.The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, is struggling amid lower Oil Prices. WTI Crude, Canada’s main export, has depreciated by about $5 in less than one week. The OPEC+ approved a further hike of 547,000 barrels per day over the weekend, heightening concerns of an oversupply, considering the soft global economic outlook. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The US Dollar appreciates moderately alongside higher US Treasury yields. The pair is testing levels above the 1.3800 mark, after bouncing at 1.3760 lows on Friday, still, well below last week’s highs, at 1.3880.Soft US data and dovish Fed rhetoric are limiting the USD’s recoveryUS data released on Monday showed a 4.8% contraction in Factory Orders in June, driven by a sharp decline in aircraft purchases. The final figures are slightly better than the 4.9% drop forecast by market analysts, yet a significant reversal from May’s 8.3% growthAlso on Monday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that the central bank should not wait too long to lower interest rates in light of the softening labour market. These comments contributed to feed hopes of Fed cuts in September, and put additional weight on the US Dollar’s recovery.Later today, the focus will be on the US Services activity data, which is expected to reveal some expansion in July, to offset the weak figures shown by the manufacturing sector.The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, is struggling amid lower Oil Prices. WTI Crude, Canada’s main export, has depreciated by about $5 in less than one week. The OPEC+ approved a further hike of 547,000 barrels per day over the weekend, heightening concerns of an oversupply, considering the soft global economic outlook. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
12:55 BoJ minutes reveal low bar for rate hikes amid trade deal progress – BBH
Japanese Yen (JPY) and JGBs ignored the Bank of Japan Minutes of the June 16-17 policy meeting, BBH FX analysts report.
Japanese Yen (JPY) and JGBs ignored the Bank of Japan Minutes of the June 16-17 policy meeting, BBH FX analysts report. BoJ minutes suggest limited JPY upside despite rate hike prospects"At that meeting, the BOJ unanimously decided to leave the policy rate at 0.50% and unveiled a plan to slow the pace of JGB purchases." "Interestingly, the Minutes showed that 'A few members expressed the view that…the Bank would likely move on from its current wait-and-see approach and consider resuming the process of policy interest rate hikes, if trade friction was expected to progress without escalation.' On July 23, the US and Japan struck a trade deal, suggesting the bar for a BOJ rate hike later this year is low.""The swaps market price-in 50% odds of a 25bps rate increase by year-end and a total of about 50bps of rate hikes to 1.00% over the next two years. The BOJ is unlikely to raise the policy rate by more than is currently priced-in, limiting JPY upside. One reason is that Japan CPI less food & energy has held below 2% for over a year and the economy shows little sign of gaining real momentum."
12:53 USD: Spanner in the works – Commerzbank
The US labor market report for July has thrown a spanner in the works, dashing my speculation that the Fed might not cut interest rates in September after all. Now it looks more likely than ever.
The US labor market report for July has thrown a spanner in the works, dashing my speculation that the Fed might not cut interest rates in September after all. Now it looks more likely than ever. Between now and the next Fed meeting on September 17, there is still one labor market report and two inflation reports to come. Of course, anything can happen – especially on the inflation front if the tariffs finally come into force this week. However, it is unlikely that the next labor market report will be surprisingly good, and it is also doubtful that the tariffs will have a significant impact on inflation so soon after they come into force. This would make the arguments in favor of an interest rate cut in September overwhelming, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Downside risks for the dollar clearly dominate at present"To make matters worse, US President Trump continues to massively erode confidence in the decisions of the US administration. If a labor market figure doesn't fit, the head of the BLS is simply fired. Of course, one can always argue about the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data. But such actions tend to smack of “if it doesn't fit, make it fit” and further undermine the credibility of statistics and data sets. I would just like to recall similar incidents in Turkey in the past.""In addition, the personnel changes in the Board of Governors could now shift more quickly in favor of a more dovish Fed, in line with Trump's demands, after Ms. Kugler announced her early retirement. One more vote on the board does not necessarily mean an immediate interest rate cut, as there are a total of seven board members and five regional central bank presidents who are eligible to vote. Nevertheless, with the nomination of a suitably loyal candidate – especially in view of the latest labor market data, see above – the Fed is likely to become more inclined to cut interest rates. Or there could be internal power struggles within the FOMC, which the market would certainly view critically.""All in all, therefore, these are not good news but rather bitter pills for the dollar, especially if other macroeconomic data also deteriorates noticeably and the arguments in favor of interest rate cuts become stronger. The only hope for a possible correction then remains the US stock markets. If they collapse, Trump could take countermeasures to calm investors' heated tempers, at least partially and for a short time. However, the downside risks for the dollar clearly dominate at present."
12:36 United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 4.635% to 4.522%
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 4.635% to 4.522%
12:34 USD: Risk-on mood and US data weigh on USD dynamics – BBH
US Dollar (USD) is hovering at the top-end of the range carved-out since Friday’s post-NFP low. US stocks are powering forward and dragging global equity markets higher. **Expectations of looser Fed policy and resilient global economic activity are fueling the stock market rally**.
US Dollar (USD) is hovering at the top-end of the range carved-out since Friday’s post-NFP low. US stocks are powering forward and dragging global equity markets higher. **Expectations of looser Fed policy and resilient global economic activity are fueling the stock market rally**. This risk-on backdrop should act as a headwind for USD, especially against cyclical-sensitive currencies, BBH FX analysts report. Risk-on sentiment and US data pressure USD outlook"We see no strong dollar bias in today’s US data release. The US merchandise trade deficit (8:30am New York, 1:30pm London) is seen narrowing to -$61.0bn vs. -$71.5bn in May reflecting a decline in imports. It’s worth noting that goods imports collapsed -35.3% q/q in Q2, making trade the main contributor to GDP growth.""The ISM Services index (10:00am New York, 3:00pm London) is expected to improve to a two-month high at 51.5 in July vs. 50.8 in June. Importantly, the Prices Paid subindex is seen easing 1 point to 66.5 in July but remain indicative of upside risk to inflation, complicating the Fed’s path toward policy easing.""We also get a fresh update of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model later today. As of August 1, the model estimates Q3 annualized growth at 2.1%, down from 2.3% on July 31."
12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $37.47 per troy ounce, up 0.13% from the $37.43 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 29.69% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 37.47 1 Gram 1.20
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.82 on Tuesday, down from 90.15 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.82 on Tuesday, down from 90.15 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:29 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.3260 and 1.3330 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3260 and 1.3330 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, the likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.3140 has diminished considerably, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3260 and 1.3330 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, the likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.3140 has diminished considerably, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.3140 has diminished24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected GBP to 'trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320' yesterday. The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. GBP traded in a range of 1.3255/1.3331, closing largely unchanged at 1.3287 (+0.07%). The price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, GBP could continue to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3260 and 1.3330." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We previously indicated 1.3140 as the technical target for our negative outlook. Last Friday, GBP dropped to 1.3143 and then rebounded. Yesterday, Monday (04 Aug, spot at 1.3275), we highlighted the following: 'The price action has resulted in a sharp slowdown in downward momentum. The likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.3140 has diminished considerably, but only a breach of 1.3355 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the GBP weakness from early last week (as annotated in the chart below) has stabilised.' There is no change in our view."
12:25 USD/JPY: Bias to sell rallies on a daily chart – OCBC
USD/JPY consolidated, after trading sharply lower post-NFP. Pair was last at 147.55 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD/JPY consolidated, after trading sharply lower post-NFP. Pair was last at 147.55 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Near term consolidation on the day"Carry trade allure is now reduced as softer US data builds the case for Fed to resume rate cut cycle soon while BoJ is likely to continue to hike rate in due course." "To some extent, political uncertainty (referring to PM Ishiba’s political career/ LDP leadership) and credit rating concerns (dependent on fiscal health) can be supportive of the pair, but 'sell USD' momentum and narrowing UST-JGB yield differentials can also counter." "Daily momentum shows tentative signs of turning mild bearish though decline in RSI moderated. Near term consolidation; bias still to sell rallies. Support here at 147.10/40 levels (21 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 145.70/90 levels (50, 100 DMAs). Resistance at 149.40/50 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 151 levels (recent high)."
12:19 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.945% from previous 1.9%
Spain 12-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.945% from previous 1.9%
12:19 Spain 6-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.932% from previous 1.872%
Spain 6-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.932% from previous 1.872%
12:11 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Treads water above 170.00, near five-week lows
EUR/JPY attempts to halt its two-day losing streak, trading around 170.20 during the European hours on Tuesday. The bearish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross remains within the descending channel pattern.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY may depreciate toward a five-week low at 169.72.The 14-day RSI remains below 50, indicating a prevailing bearish bias.The nine-day EMA at 171.17 may act as the initial barrier.EUR/JPY attempts to halt its two-day losing streak, trading around 170.20 during the European hours on Tuesday. The bearish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross remains within the descending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, suggesting that bearish bias prevails. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find immediate support at the psychological level of 170.00, followed by the five-week low at 169.72, which was recorded on July 31, followed by the 50-day EMA at 169.27. A break below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and prompt the currency cross to test the two-month low at 168.46, aligned with the lower boundary of the descending channel.The primary barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 171.17, followed by the descending channel’s upper boundary around 171.80. A breach above this crucial resistance zone could improve the short-term price momentum and support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around 173.90, the highest since July 2024, recorded on July 28, 2025.EUR/JPY: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.32% 0.02% 0.30% 0.21% 0.28% 0.45% 0.44% EUR -0.32% -0.31% 0.00% -0.10% -0.12% 0.07% 0.12% GBP -0.02% 0.31% 0.27% 0.21% 0.20% 0.38% 0.31% JPY -0.30% 0.00% -0.27% -0.06% 0.07% 0.14% 0.13% CAD -0.21% 0.10% -0.21% 0.06% 0.01% 0.17% 0.10% AUD -0.28% 0.12% -0.20% -0.07% -0.01% 0.22% 0.12% NZD -0.45% -0.07% -0.38% -0.14% -0.17% -0.22% -0.00% CHF -0.44% -0.12% -0.31% -0.13% -0.10% -0.12% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in June
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in June
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (0.5%) in June: Actual (0.6%)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (0.5%) in June: Actual (0.6%)
11:59 Dollar consolidates amid India sanctions and BRICS trade concerns – ING
The dollar is consolidating after Friday's heavy losses. And the greater market interest in the short term is President Trump's newfound focus on India.
The dollar is consolidating after Friday's heavy losses. And the greater market interest in the short term is President Trump's newfound focus on India. Here, the threat of secondary sanctions became more real yesterday as Washington squarely turned its attention to India's purchases of Russian crude oil - a substantial 1.7 million barrels per day. Whether the threat of secondary sanctions on India's financing of Russia is the core goal remains to be seen. Or indeed, this move may be increased US leverage on India to open up its domestic economy to agricultural imports or commitments to buy US energy instead. Either way, India and its currency, the rupee, are under pressure, and speculation will build as to whether the Reserve Bank of India wants to protect the 88 level in USD/INR. This year, the RBI has been allowing more flexibility in the rupee and inflation is lower than usual, questioning how committed the RBI will be to the defence of 88.00, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY rally stalls in the 99.00/99.25"Also in the firing line currently is Brazil. US tariffs are currently set at 50% as the US accuses Brazil of human rights abuses in the pursuit of former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian institutions are not backing down and instead yesterday placed Bolsonaro under house arrest. President Lula will address the nation tomorrow as to how his government his handling this pressure from Washington. Clearly, there is scope for escalation here - US tariffs to 100%? - yet the Brazilian real is performing quite well. Here, the global interest in the carry trade continues and the near 15% implied yields of the Brazilian real remain attractive. South Africa's rand is also performing pretty well, despite the 30% US tariffs. Here, the local central bank's unilateral move to pursue a lower (3%) inflation target is being welcomed by flows into the local bond market.""Perhaps the most dominant question here regarding the pressure on the BRICS country grouping is whether the US-China trade detente lasts. The market assumes it does, but we do have another deadline coming up on 12 August. An early extension of the currently benign trading conditions would very much be welcomed by the market. If not and the US does ratchet up pressure on China again, then it would look like President Trump was opening up a new campaign on the BRICs nations after all.""Back to the dollar, we heard from Federal Reserve non-voter Mary Daly last night that she thinks the risks are now skewed to more than two Fed cuts this year. Around 60bp of Fed easing is currently priced. More importantly, we'll hear from Fed voters, Susan Collins and Lisa Cook, tomorrow. For today, the US focus is on the ISM services figure for July. A mild improvement is expected and could give the dollar a nudge higher. However, we suspect that any DXY rally stalls in the 99.00/99.25 - i.e a shallow correction after Friday's drop."
11:54 CHF/JPY: Sell on rallies – OCBC
CHF/JPY fell sharply from above 185-levels last Fri to trade a low of 182.70 low this morning. Cross was last at 182.00 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
CHF/JPY fell sharply from above 185-levels last Fri to trade a low of 182.70 low this morning. Cross was last at 182.00 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. SNB-BoJ policy divergence can push the cross to the downside"The triggers were downside surprise to US payrolls, which saw JPY strengthened while the unexpectedly high 39% tariff rate on Swiss imports to US weighed on CHF. The divergence saw the cross fell sharply. Swiss government has indicated that it will pursue discussions with US, if necessary, beyond the 7 Aug deadline. Potentially, lawmakers are looking at options including the purchase of US LNG or further investments by Swiss companies in the US." "US is one of Switzerland’s top export markets for chocolates, watches, pharmaceuticals and Swiss is the 6th largest investor in US. Should the tariff go into effect, Swiss economic growth may be impacted, and inflation may ease, leading to higher likelihood of SNB lowering the rate into negative (SNB policy rate is already at zero). Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell." "Support at 181.30 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high), 180.80 (50 DMA) and 178.30 (38.2% fibo). Resistance at 183.20, 184.40 (21 DMA). We look for opportunities on rally to fade into. The 12% run-up this year may also provide an opportunity to enter short, from a risk-reward perspective. SNB-BoJ policy divergence play could return, and this can underpin the direction of travel to the downside."
11:54 AUD/JPY hovers above 95.00 with markets anticipating further RBA easing
The Australian Dollar remains trapped within a tight range above 95.00 against the Japanese Yen.
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The RBA meets next week and is expected to ease its monetary policy further amid the uncertain global trade outlook, with Trump’s tariffs coming into effect this week. Recent data show that Australian inflation has moderated further, which gives more leeway to the bank to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.
In Japan, the minutes of the latest BoJ meeting revealed that the bank remains committed to tightening its monetary policy further if the bank’s economic forecasts are confirmed. The Yen appreciated across the board following the release of the minutes.Technical analysis: Double top above 97.00From a technical perspective, a double top at the 97.30-97.45 area in late July suggests that the pair’s bullish trend from early April’s low has come to an end, and bears are taking control.
The confirmation below the confluence of the DT’s neckline and the ascending trendline, at the 96.00 area is giving hopes for sellers while the pair remains pinned near the 95.00 support area. Further down, the next targets are the July 7 low, at 94.25 and the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement, at 93.00.
On the upside, the mentioned support, at 95.90 (Jul 30, 31 lows) will probably act as a resistance ahead of the reverse trendline, now at 96.30. Above here, the bearish view would be cancelled and the focus would be shifted back to 97.30-97.45 July 15, 16 and 28 highs. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
The RBA meets next week and is expected to ease its monetary policy further amid the uncertain global trade outlook, with Trump’s tariffs coming into effect this week. Recent data show that Australian inflation has moderated further, which gives more leeway to the bank to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.
In Japan, the minutes of the latest BoJ meeting revealed that the bank remains committed to tightening its monetary policy further if the bank’s economic forecasts are confirmed. The Yen appreciated across the board following the release of the minutes.Technical analysis: Double top above 97.00From a technical perspective, a double top at the 97.30-97.45 area in late July suggests that the pair’s bullish trend from early April’s low has come to an end, and bears are taking control.
The confirmation below the confluence of the DT’s neckline and the ascending trendline, at the 96.00 area is giving hopes for sellers while the pair remains pinned near the 95.00 support area. Further down, the next targets are the July 7 low, at 94.25 and the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement, at 93.00.
On the upside, the mentioned support, at 95.90 (Jul 30, 31 lows) will probably act as a resistance ahead of the reverse trendline, now at 96.30. Above here, the bearish view would be cancelled and the focus would be shifted back to 97.30-97.45 July 15, 16 and 28 highs. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
11:51 CHF: Praying for a last minute deal – ING
Switzerland is very much preoccupied with the 39% US tariffs due to come into force later this week. The Swiss government is already discussing short-time worker compensation in the event of layoffs - clearly preparing for the worst, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Switzerland is very much preoccupied with the 39% US tariffs due to come into force later this week. The Swiss government is already discussing short-time worker compensation in the event of layoffs - clearly preparing for the worst, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/CHF may be headed back to the 0.9450 area"Having been offered for large parts of the year, EUR/CHF is now starting to turn higher. What if the US closed its doors to Swiss exports and Swiss FX earnings fell markedly? We can see why the Swiss franc is softening up, and the uncertainty makes a stronger case for the Swiss National Bank to take rates into negative territory later this year." "Yet we suspect we haven't heard the last word on this deal and would not be surprised if some pharma-related deal (lower drug prices in the US?) or Swiss commitments to purchase relatively expensive US energy result in a lower tariff rate eventually.""Until that deal is cut, however, EUR/CHF could be headed back to the 0.9450 area."
11:45 DXY: Range-bound on the day – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight as markets await data and Fedspeaks this week. DXY was last at 99.01, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight as markets await data and Fedspeaks this week. DXY was last at 99.01, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Some consolidation expected in the interim"Soft labour market report has already swung the probability of Fed cut in Sep to 95% (vs. 40% as of 31 July). Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading but decline in RSI moderated." "Some consolidation expected in the interim. Support at 98.30 (21, 50 DMAs), 97.20 levels. Resistance at 100 (100 DMA), 100.50 levels. Focus this week on ISM services data (Tuesday); initial jobless claims (Thursday) and Fedspeaks."
11:38 USD/CHF moves above 0.8100 as US Dollar strengthens ahead of ISM PMI release
USD/CHF continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around 0.8110 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) advances ahead of the release of US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due later in the day.
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The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) advances ahead of the release of US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due later in the day.Risk aversion increased after US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned on Monday. This has increased concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence, as President Donald Trump now has an earlier-than-expected opportunity to shape the central bank's direction. Trump may nominate a replacement potentially more aligned with his calls for lower rates.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce its interest rates in September, following weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook. Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly highlighted plenty of reasons to start looking at interest rate cuts. However, prevailing uncertainty makes it difficult for Fed officials to step into rate trimming too quickly. We can't wait to be certain there is no inflation persistence, need to make a call based on what's most likely, Daly added.The USD/CHF pair also gained ground as the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles amid growing concerns about the impact of US tariffs on Swiss exports. On August 1, the Trump administration announced a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, an increase from the 31% rate introduced in April, taking effect on August 7. The higher tariffs are likely to deepen disinflationary pressures in Switzerland. Meanwhile, inflation edged up slightly in July, rising to 0.2% year-on-year, above the forecast of 0.1%. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
11:36 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in range between 1.1435 and 1.1660 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1435 and 1.1660 against US Dollar (USD), UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1435 and 1.1660 against US Dollar (USD), UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to the surge in EUR last Friday, we highlighted yesterday that 'although the sharp rally appears to be excessive, there is a chance for EUR to test 1.1625.' Our view did not materialise, as EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1547 and 1.1596, closing slightly lower at 1.1570 (-0.12%). While the underlying tone remains slightly firm, instead of a sustained advance, EUR is more likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1550/1.1605." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (04 Aug, spot at 1.1580), we revised our view to neutral. We pointed that 'despite the strong surge in EUR last Friday, it is too early to expect a further sustained rise.' We expected EUR to 'trade in a range between 1.1435 and 1.1660.' There is no change in our view."
11:30 EUR: Consolidation in quiet conditions – ING
EUR/USD looks quite comfortable near the 1.1550 level and, in the absence of market drivers, may hang around that level for a while, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD looks quite comfortable near the 1.1550 level and, in the absence of market drivers, may hang around that level for a while, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Buyers may return in the 1.1500/1520 area"We imagine buyers would return in the 1.1500/1520 area should the US data weigh on EUR/USD today. The only eurozone data today is June PPI - expected at 0.6% year-on-year. This serves as a reminder that the European Central Bank is more concerned with inflation undershooting than overshooting its targets. As a house, ING still pencils in an ECB rate cut in September - which is clearly a bold call."
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (51) in July: Actual (51.5)
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (51) in July: Actual (51.5)
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.2) in July: Actual (51.8)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.2) in July: Actual (51.8)
11:15 EUR/GBP extends losses below 0.8700 with BoE interest rates coming into view
The Euro trades lower for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, exploring levels sub-0.8700 as the Pound trims some losses, with investors shifting their gaze to the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, due next Thursday.
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The possibility of leaving rates unchanged seems remote but is not completely discarded. Such an outcome would send the Sterling rallying.The Euro, on the other hand, remains moderately weak, weighed down by a lopsided trade deal with the US and signs of deterioration in the bloc’s leading economies. The final Eurozone Services PMI has been revised lower to a 51.0 reading from the preliminary estimations of 51.2. Later on the day, S&P Global will release the final reading of the UK Services PMI. Preliminary estimations pointed to a slowdown to 51.2 from the previous month’s 52.8 reading. Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 08:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51 Consensus: 51.2 Previous: 51.2 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 08:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 51.2 Previous: 51.2 Source: S&P Global
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11:11 Forex Today: Markets quiet down ahead of mid-tier US data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 5:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 5:Following the wild fluctuations seen toward the end of the previous week, markets stabilized on Monday. Major currency pairs trade in relatively tight ranges early Tuesday as investors await the next catalyst. Later in the session, June Goods Trade Balance and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July will be featured in the US economic calendar. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.40% 0.10% 0.09% 0.06% 0.33% 0.33% 0.55% EUR -0.40% -0.26% -0.31% -0.34% -0.21% -0.09% 0.13% GBP -0.10% 0.26% -0.02% -0.09% 0.05% 0.17% 0.39% JPY -0.09% 0.31% 0.02% -0.02% 0.11% 0.24% 0.64% CAD -0.06% 0.34% 0.09% 0.02% 0.12% 0.27% 0.47% AUD -0.33% 0.21% -0.05% -0.11% -0.12% 0.13% 0.34% NZD -0.33% 0.09% -0.17% -0.24% -0.27% -0.13% 0.20% CHF -0.55% -0.13% -0.39% -0.64% -0.47% -0.34% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) Index held its ground on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. The index clings to small daily gains in the European session on Tuesday and stays slightly below 99.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after Wall Street's main indexes rose more than 1% on Monday.US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he will raise the tariff rate on Indian imports "substantially," saying that India buys massive amounts of Russian oil and sells it on the open market for "big profits." The Indian Rupee came under heavy selling pressure following these remarks and the USD/INR pair rose about 0.8% on Monday before hitting a new all-time high at around 88.25 early Tuesday. According to Reuters, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold USD's via state-run banks to limit the Indian Rupee's losses. As of writing, USD/INR was trading marginally lower on the day near 88.00.During the Asian trading hours, the data from China showed that the Caixin Services PMI improved to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 50.2. AUD/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 0.6450 in the early European session.EUR/USD edges slightly lower after posting small losses on Monday and fluctuates below 1.1550. Eurostat will release Producer Price Index data for June later in the session. The EU announced on Monday that it will delay its planned retaliatory tariffs against the United States’ tariffs for six months, which were set to take effect on Thursday. GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3300 on Tuesday. The UK Debt Management Office will hold a 10-year bond auction. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions.USD/JPY fluctuates in a narrow channel near 147.50 after failing to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday.Gold struggled to gather bullish momentum on Monday and posted small gains. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $3,370 early Tuesday. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51 below forecasts (51.2) in July
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51 below forecasts (51.2) in July
11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (51) in July: Actual (50.9)
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (51) in July: Actual (50.9)
11:00 ISM Services PMI Preview: US services sector expected to expand in July
On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will unveil its July Services PMI, and analysts expect it to edge up to 51.5 from June’s 50.8. That would mark a second straight month of growth in the services sector — a sign of its resilience and a boost to confidence in the wider US economy.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US ISM Services PMI is seen improving a tad in July. The US services sector is expected to remain within expansionary territory.Investors continue to favour approximately two rate cuts from the Fed this year.On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will unveil its July Services PMI, and analysts expect it to edge up to 51.5 from June’s 50.8. That would mark a second straight month of growth in the services sector — a sign of its resilience and a boost to confidence in the wider US economy.That said, not all readings were uniformly strong in the previous month. The ISM Employment Index slipped back into contraction territory at 47.2, while the New Orders Index rebounded to 51.3, signalling firmer demand for services. On the cost front, the Prices Paid Index inched down to 67.5 from 68.7, a reminder that price pressure remains persistent.What to expect from the ISM Services PMI report?Inflation in the US is still running hotter than the Fed’s 2.0% goal, keeping policymakers on edge—especially as the full impact of recent tariffs on the broader economy is yet to play out.Last week’s PCE report underlined the point: headline inflation climbed to 2.6% from a year earlier in June (up from May’s 2.4% and above most forecasts), while core PCE—stripping out food and energy—remained stubbornly steady at 2.8%.In that light, an ISM Services PMI reading that simply meets expectations is unlikely to budge the US Dollar: it would reinforce the sense of a still-resilient economy despite persistent price pressure. But if the services sector were to soften more sharply than anticipated, it could unsettle markets and prompt investors to lighten up on the Greenback amid worries about a loss of economic momentum.When will the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD?The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday at 14:00 GMT.According to Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, “The resurgence of the selling process could initially drag EUR/USD to its monthly floor at 1.1391 (August 1), which comes just ahead of the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.1369. The loss of the latter could put a potential move to the weekly trough at 1.1210 (May 29) back on the radar.”On the other hand, periods of strength could spur the market to challenge the weekly high at 1.1788 (July 24) before reaching the 2025 ceiling of 1.1830 (July 1). Once this region is cleared, the pair could embark on a probable move to the 1.2000 milestone,” Piovano adds.Finally, Piovano suggests that, “while above the 200-day SMA of 1.0944, the pair’s constructive outlook should remain unchanged.” Economic Indicator ISM Services Employment Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector, taking into account expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. The ISM Services Employment Index represents business sentiment regarding labor market conditions and is considered a strong Non-Farm Payrolls leading indicator. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 14:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 47.2 Consensus: - Previous: 50.7 Source: Institute for Supply Management GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.1) in July
Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.1) in July
10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (50.3) in July: Actual (50.6)
Germany HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (50.3) in July: Actual (50.6)
10:50 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (49.7) in July
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (49.7) in July
10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (49.6) in July: Actual (48.6)
France HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (49.6) in July: Actual (48.6)
10:46 US Dollar Index maintains position near 99.00 ahead of ISM PMI data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground for the second successive day and trading around 98.80 during the European hours on Tuesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in July: Actual (52.3)
Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in July: Actual (52.3)
10:42 Pound Sterling flattens as investors shift focus to upcoming BoE monetary policy decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly flat against its major peers on Tuesday as investors shift their focus to the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday.
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This would be the fifth interest rate cut by the United Kingdom (UK) central bank in its current monetary expansion cycle, which started in August 2024.Market participants will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference to get cues about the likely monetary policy action by the central bank in the remainder of the year. In the June monetary policy announcement, the BoE guided a “gradual and cautious” monetary policy expansion.A slowdown in labor demand and an increase in inflationary pressures have led to rising fears of stagflation in the UK economy.Lately, labor market indicators have signaled that firms are reluctant to increase their workforces due to an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that both headline and core inflation rose faster than expected.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling consolidatesThe Pound Sterling oscillates in a tight range around 1.3280 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates, while the US Dollar trades broadly stable ahead of the United States (US) revised S&P Global PMI data and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published during North American trading hours.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, stabilizes around 98.80 after a sharp decline on Friday.Economists expect the ISM Services PMI to come in at 51.5, higher than the 50.8 reading seen in June, suggesting that the service sector activity grew at a faster pace. Investors will closely monitor the data as the services sector accounts for around two-thirds of the US economy.Meanwhile, the outlook of the US Dollar has become uncertain as traders have raised bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the September meeting has increased to 92.2% from 41.2% seen on Thursday, a day before the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.On Friday, the NFP report showed signs of a sharp slowdown in hiring levels and an increase in the Unemployment Rate.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wobbles around 1.3300The Pound Sterling trades quietly below 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The outlook of the pair remains bearish as the breakdown of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern holds and the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes downwards to near 1.3395. The neckline of the H&S pattern is plotted around 1.3360.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, indicating that the bearish momentum is intact.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 30 high near 1.3385 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:38 NZD/USD slides further below 0.5900 as the US Dollar picks up from lows
The New Zealand Dollar has shrugged off the positive services activity data from China released earlier on Tuesday and extends its reversal from Monday’s highs at 0.5930 to levels below 0.5900.
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The New Zealand Dollar has shrugged off the positive services activity data from China released earlier on Tuesday and extends its reversal from Monday’s highs at 0.5930 to levels below 0.5900. The US Dollar is picking up but remains trapped within recent ranges with US Serviceson focus, while, in New Zealand, the highlight will be the Q2 employment raport
Earlier on Tuesday, the Caixinn Purchasing Managers Index for July revealed that ¡ services activity accelerated at its fastest rate in more than one year in July. The index increased to 52.6 from the previous month’s 50.6 reading, beating market expectations of a moderate slowdown to 50.4.
The report pointed to the positive impact from new businesses and the increase in external demand, which had been contracting during the previous two months, as the main reasons for July’s upbeat figures.Positive data from China fails to support the KiwiThe figures, however, failed to provide any significant support to the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi remains on its back for the second consecutive day, as the US Dollar appreciates across the board, with the dust from Friday’s US NFP report settling.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of the most traded currencies, appreciates for the second day in a row, with US Treasury yields picking up from post-NFP lows.
The pair is testing an intra-day support area at 0.5890, with investors awaiting US Services activity data, which is expected to show some improvement, while in New Zealand, the Employment report, due later on the day, might provide some insight into the RBNZ’s policy plans. Economic Indicator Caixin Services PMI The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at both private-sector and state-owned companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 01:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.6 Consensus: 50.2 Previous: 50.6 Source: IHS Markit Economic Indicator Employment Change The Employment Change, released by Statistics New Zealand, is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. A higher reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a lower reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 22:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: -0.1% Previous: 0.1% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? Statistics New Zealand releases employment data on a quarterly basis. The statistics shed a light on New Zealand’s labor market, including unemployment and employment rates, demand for labor and changes in wages and salaries. These employment indicators tend to have an impact on the country’s inflation and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, eventually affecting the NZD. A better-than-expected print could turn out to be NZD bullish. Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the percentage of unemployed workers in the total civilian labor force. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market and weakness in the New Zealand economy. Generally, a decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while an increase is seen as negative bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 22:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 5.3% Previous: 5.1% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? Statistics New Zealand releases employment data on a quarterly basis. The statistics shed a light on New Zealand’s labor market, including unemployment and employment rates, demand for labor and changes in wages and salaries. These employment indicators tend to have an impact on the country’s inflation and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, eventually affecting the NZD. A better-than-expected print could turn out to be NZD bullish.
The New Zealand Dollar has shrugged off the positive services activity data from China released earlier on Tuesday and extends its reversal from Monday’s highs at 0.5930 to levels below 0.5900. The US Dollar is picking up but remains trapped within recent ranges with US Serviceson focus, while, in New Zealand, the highlight will be the Q2 employment raport
Earlier on Tuesday, the Caixinn Purchasing Managers Index for July revealed that ¡ services activity accelerated at its fastest rate in more than one year in July. The index increased to 52.6 from the previous month’s 50.6 reading, beating market expectations of a moderate slowdown to 50.4.
The report pointed to the positive impact from new businesses and the increase in external demand, which had been contracting during the previous two months, as the main reasons for July’s upbeat figures.Positive data from China fails to support the KiwiThe figures, however, failed to provide any significant support to the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi remains on its back for the second consecutive day, as the US Dollar appreciates across the board, with the dust from Friday’s US NFP report settling.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of the most traded currencies, appreciates for the second day in a row, with US Treasury yields picking up from post-NFP lows.
The pair is testing an intra-day support area at 0.5890, with investors awaiting US Services activity data, which is expected to show some improvement, while in New Zealand, the Employment report, due later on the day, might provide some insight into the RBNZ’s policy plans. Economic Indicator Caixin Services PMI The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at both private-sector and state-owned companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 01:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.6 Consensus: 50.2 Previous: 50.6 Source: IHS Markit Economic Indicator Employment Change The Employment Change, released by Statistics New Zealand, is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. A higher reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a lower reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 22:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: -0.1% Previous: 0.1% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? Statistics New Zealand releases employment data on a quarterly basis. The statistics shed a light on New Zealand’s labor market, including unemployment and employment rates, demand for labor and changes in wages and salaries. These employment indicators tend to have an impact on the country’s inflation and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, eventually affecting the NZD. A better-than-expected print could turn out to be NZD bullish. Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the percentage of unemployed workers in the total civilian labor force. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market and weakness in the New Zealand economy. Generally, a decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while an increase is seen as negative bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 22:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 5.3% Previous: 5.1% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? Statistics New Zealand releases employment data on a quarterly basis. The statistics shed a light on New Zealand’s labor market, including unemployment and employment rates, demand for labor and changes in wages and salaries. These employment indicators tend to have an impact on the country’s inflation and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, eventually affecting the NZD. A better-than-expected print could turn out to be NZD bullish.
10:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains further to near $37.50 as Fed rate cut in September looks likely
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its recovery move to near $37.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as traders have raised bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September meeting.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price demonstrates strength amid accelerating bets supporting Fed’s interest rate cuts in September.Cooling US labor demand has prompted Fed dovish bets.Investors await the US Services PMI data for July.Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its recovery move to near $37.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as traders have raised bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September meeting.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates in the September meeting has increased to 92.2% from 80% seen on Friday, after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, and 41.2% on Thursday.Theoretically, lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.The US NFP report showed signs of weak labor demand at the time when the global economy is grappling with trade uncertainty due to the introduction of new tariff policy by US President Donald Trump.The data was in contradiction to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary that the labor market is broadly stable in the press conference, following the interest rate decision on Wednesday.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stable ahead of the US revised S&P Global and the ISM Services PMI data for July, which will be published during the North American session. The ISM Services PMI is seen at 51.5, higher from 50.8 in June.Silver technical analysisSilver price extends two-day recovery to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $37.50 on Tuesday.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates around 50.00, suggesting that the asset lacks momentum.Looking down, the June 24 low of $35.28 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 30 high near $38.25 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:16 Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 55.1, above forecasts (52.5) in July
Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 55.1, above forecasts (52.5) in July
10:12 Dow Jones futures surge over potential for Fed rate cut, await US ISM PMI data
Dow Jones futures appreciate ahead of the US market opening on Tuesday, trading around 44,380, up by 0.17%, during early European hours. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures surge by 0.25% to 6,370, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.33% to trade above 23,300.
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Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures surge by 0.25% to 6,370, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.33% to trade above 23,300. US ISM PMI data will be eyed later in the North American session.US stock index futures appreciate due to the rising likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut in September, following weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 91.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month.However, traders are expected to closely monitor US President Donald Trump as he moves to nominate a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned on Monday. The new appointee may be more aligned with Trump's push for lower interest rates.In future markets, Palantir jumped more than 4% after the AI software company surpassed second-quarter earnings expectations and raised its outlook, driven by strong demand for its AI platform. However, Hims & Hers Health tumbled around 13% after falling short of revenue estimates for the second quarter. Investors now await earnings reports on Tuesday from key names such as AMD, Pfizer, Snap, Rivian, and Yum! Brands.On Monday’s regular market, Wall Street rebounded from last week’s pullback, with the Dow climbing 1.34%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite surging 1.95% as traders digested the latest round of corporate earnings. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
10:05 GBP/JPY attracts some buyers to above 195.50 despite rising BoJ rate hike bets
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 195.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid risk-on sentiment and political uncertainty in Japan.
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BoJ members saw scope to hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, June minutes showed.The BoE is expected to cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday.The GBP/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 195.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid risk-on sentiment and political uncertainty in Japan. Traders await the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday for fresh impetus.According to the minutes of the June Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting released on Tuesday, some policymakers saw scope to resume interest rate increases once trade friction caused by US tariffs eased. The minutes emphasized that most BoJ members supported keeping interest rates unchanged for the time being amid heightened uncertainty over US trade tariffs. Hawkish June BoJ meeting Minutes reaffirmed rate hike bets and might provide some support to the JPY. However, domestic political instability might cap the upside for JPY after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in the July 20 polls.The BoE is widely anticipated to cut its key interest rate to 4.0% from 4.25% on Thursday amid rising unemployment in the UK economy and the hit to global trade from US tariffs. Financial markets have priced in more than 80% odds of BoE rate cuts at the August meeting and are penciling in a further quarter-point reduction before the end of the year. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
10:04 WTI consolidates around mid-$65.00s, just above one-week low set on Monday
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the sideways consolidative price move heading into the European session on Tuesday and remain close to a one-week low touched the previous day.
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WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) increased to 2.3% in June from previous 1.7%
Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) increased to 2.3% in June from previous 1.7%
09:45 France Budget Balance down to €-100.4B in June from previous €-93.97B
France Budget Balance down to €-100.4B in June from previous €-93.97B
09:45 France Industrial Output (MoM) above expectations (0.8%) in June: Actual (3.8%)
France Industrial Output (MoM) above expectations (0.8%) in June: Actual (3.8%)
09:35 USD/CAD remains below 1.3800 due to subdued Oil prices, US ISM Services PMI eyed
USD/CAD holds ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair moves little as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid weaker crude Oil prices.
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The pair moves little as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid weaker crude Oil prices. Market participants will likely observe the US ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data later in the North American session.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady after a three-day losing streak, hovering around $65.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices may further depreciate amid mounting concerns over a potential supply glut after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September.The USD/CAD pair remains steady as traders adopt caution as the market sentiment turns cautious over rising concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned on Monday. This event has provided US President Donald Trump an earlier-than-anticipated opportunity to influence the central bank. Trump may nominate a replacement potentially more aligned with his calls for lower rates.However, the upside of the US Dollar (USD) could be limited amid rising odds of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, following weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 91.6% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
09:03 Crude Oil price today: WTI price neutral at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is neutral on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.66 per barrel, not far from its Monday close at $65.66.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is neutral on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.66 per barrel, not far from its Monday close at $65.66.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), however, advances from its previous close at $68.52 to trade at $68.55. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:03 EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Crucial upside barrier emerges near 1.6000
The EUR/CAD cross loses ground to around 1.5925 during the early European session on Tuesday. A rebound in crude oil prices lifts the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a headwind for the cross.
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The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.6000; the first support level to watch is 1.5888.The EUR/CAD cross loses ground to around 1.5925 during the early European session on Tuesday. A rebound in crude oil prices lifts the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a headwind for the cross. Investors will keep an eye on the Composite and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports from Germany and the Eurozone for July, which are due later on Tuesday. Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/CAD remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. This suggests the neutral momentum in the near term. On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the cross emerges at the 1.6000 psychological level. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for the next resistance level at 1.6100, representing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and a round mark. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is 1.6125, the high of July 28. In the bearish case, the initial support level for the EUR/CAD is seen at 1.5888, the low of July 17. Any follow-through selling below the mentioned level could drag the cross toward 1.5810, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of this level could see a drop to 1.5720, the 100-day EMA. EUR/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
09:01 FX option expiries for Aug 5 NY cut
FX option expiries for Aug 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Aug 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1425 1.8b1.1500 1.6b1.1525 1.1b1.1550 2.5b1.1585 1.2b1.1600 2.2b1.1700 1.3bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3390 953m1.3600 852mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.50 661m146.00 611m149.50 742mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6465 626m0.6480 603m0.6500 645m0.6550 1.2b0.6600 1.2bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3850 621mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8670 714m0.8700 597m
09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI: 48.6 (July) vs previous 49.2
Russia S&P Global Services PMI: 48.6 (July) vs previous 49.2
08:14 EUR/GBP ticks down to near 0.8700, BoE policy takes centre stage
The EUR/GBP pair edges lower to near the round level of 0.8700 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. The pair faces a slight selling pressure, while investors shift their focus to the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday.
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The pair faces a slight selling pressure, while investors shift their focus to the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday.Traders have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the BoE, a move that will put borrowing rates lower to 4%. In the last policy meeting, the BoE held interest rates steady and guided a “gradual and careful” monetary expansion approach.Investors will pay close attention to the BoE’s monetary policy guidance for the remainder of the year at a time when the United Kingdom (UK) labor demand is facing the heat of an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes and inflationary pressures remain elevated.Analysts at eToro have warned that the British currency could fall on the back foot as the BoE faces a “tricky mix of weak growth combined with high inflation, or stagflation”. Contrary to market expectations, analysts have stated that the BoE should keep “interest rates on hold” until “core inflation eases”.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) faces a slight selling pressure as Eurozone Sentix Investors' Confidence Index tumbled to a three-month low of -3.7 in August, from the 4.5 reading in the previous month, against market expectations of further improvement to an 8.0 reading. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Aug 07, 2025 11:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4% Previous: 4.25% Source: Bank of England
08:09 USD/CHF strengthens to near 0.8100 amid US-Swiss trade tensions
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.8090 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) softens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump hit Switzerland with a shock 39% export tariff.
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Swiss goods face a 39% US import tariff from August 7, weighing on the Swiss Franc.Soft US NFP report fueled speculations that the Fed will resume rate cuts in September. The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.8090 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) softens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump hit Switzerland with a shock 39% export tariff. However, rising September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets might cap the upside for the pair. The US July ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. Trump will impose a 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland, one of the highest levies globally, which threatens to leave the country’s key exports reeling. The Swiss government said on Monday that the country is ready to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington. It is unclear if Switzerland and the US will strike a trade agreement ahead of the deadline. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF) and creates a tailwind for the pair. Friday's weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report pointed to a cooling labor market and fueled speculations that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly an 84% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly said on Monday that, given mounting evidence that the US job market is softening and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time is nearing for interest rate reductions. The downbeat US job data and dovish remarks from the Fed officials could undermine the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:01 India HSBC Services PMI above forecasts (60) in July: Actual (60.5)
India HSBC Services PMI above forecasts (60) in July: Actual (60.5)
08:00 Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.3% in June from previous 1.4%
Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.3% in June from previous 1.4%
08:00 Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1.2% in June from previous 1%
Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1.2% in June from previous 1%
08:00 India HSBC Composite PMI up to 61.1 in July from previous 60.7
India HSBC Composite PMI up to 61.1 in July from previous 60.7
07:46 EUR/JPY falls to near 170.00 as BoJ Meeting Minutes signal potential for rate hikes
EUR/JPY remains subdued for the third successive session, trading around 170.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
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The currency cross continues to face challenges as the Japanese Yen (JPY) receives support after minutes from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) June meeting indicated that many members expect the central bank to continue raising the policy rate if the economy, prices move in line with its forecast.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members said inflation is somewhat overshooting the forecast, but must scrutinize economic developments due to downside risk to growth from the United States (US) tariff policy. A few members highlighted that uncertainty remains high, but downward pressure on Japan’s economy from US tariff policy may not be as strong as projected in the Bank of Japan’s previous meeting.Japanese Economy Minister and chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday that he will push the United States (US) to give an order to take the auto tariff into effect as soon as possible. "One of the purposes of the US visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement," Akazawa added.However, the EUR/JPY cross may further appreciate as the Euro (EUR) could receive support from the prevailing cautious sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook. Traders expect the ECB to hold rates steady as the Eurozone annual inflation held at 2.0% in July, slightly above the 1.9% forecast. Meanwhile, traders adopt caution amid the imposition of 15% US tariffs on goods imported from the European Union (EU).Market participants will likely observe the HCOB Composite and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone and Germany later in the day. The PMI report may offer fresh understanding of economic activity and potential future trends in the Eurozone. Economic Indicator BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility. Generally speaking, if the BoJ minutes show a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Mon Aug 04, 2025 23:50 Frequency: Irregular Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Bank of Japan
07:38 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears await acceptance below 95.00; 200-day SMA breakdown in play
The AUD/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and languishes near the 95.00 psychological mark, close to a nearly four-week low touched the previous day. Moreover, the technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
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07:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,519.12 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 9,524.89 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 111,029.40 per tola from INR 111,096.50 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,519.12 10 Grams 95,191.45 Tola 111,029.40 Troy Ounce 296,073.90
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls have the upper hand as September Fed rate cut bets could cap the USD
Traders ramped up their bets for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the release of the latest US jobs data, which pointed to a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September.
The US Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Monday that Factory Orders plunged 4.8% in June following an upwardly revised 8.3% rise in the previous month. This adds to concerns about the state of the US economy amid US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and supports the Gold price.
Trump signed an executive order last Thursday raising tariffs on dozens of countries, ranging from 10% to 41%, that go into effect on August 7. The Trump administration said that the universal tariff will remain at 10% for countries with which the US has a trade surplus, while nations with which the US has a trade deficit face a 15% floor.
China and the US – the world's two largest economic giants – are yet to agree on a trade deal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that any extension of the 90-day tariff truce, which is set to expire later this month, would be up to Trump. This keeps investors on edge and could benefit the safe-haven commodity.
The US Dollar attracts some buyers and, for now, seems to have stalled the post-NFP downfall from an over one-month peak. This is holding back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets and caps the upside. Traders now look to the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:36 USD/INR opens gap up as Trump threatens higher tariffs on India again
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a gap-down note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sending the USD/INR pair to its all-time high of around 88.25. The Indian currency faces intense selling pressure as trade tensions between India and the United States (US) have escalated.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee opens sharply lower against the US Dollar as Trump threatens higher tariffs on imports from India again.India responded strongly to Trump's tariff threats, stating that the nation will take all measures to protect its national interest.Investors expect the RBI to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a gap-down note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sending the USD/INR pair to its all-time high of around 88.25. The Indian currency faces intense selling pressure as trade tensions between India and the United States (US) have escalated.On Monday, US President Donald Trump threatened, through a post on Truth.Social, India again with higher tariffs for buying Oil from Russia, a move that has been interpreted as funding Moscow to continue the war with Ukraine."India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine," Trump wrote. He further added, "Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”Last week, US President Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from India along with an unspecified duty for buying Russian Oil, citing that their tariffs are too high.In response to Trump’s tariff threats, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that the targeting of India is “unjustified and unreasonable”, Reuters reported. To support their response, the agency released a six-point statement sheet on Monday, which also stated that India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its “national interests and economic security”.According to India’s response sheet, Washington praised New Delhi for buying Russian Oil as the act brought stability in the global energy market.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee weakens against US Dollar due to multiple headwindsApart from US-India trade tensions, the continuous outflow of foreign funds from Indian equity markets, and uncertainty surrounding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday have also weighed heavily on the Indian Rupee.In two trading sessions of August, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold Rs. 5,932.91 crores worth of Indian equity cumulatively. The outflow of significant foreign funds from an economy often leads to depreciation of its currency.On Wednesday, the RBI is almost certain to leave its Repo Rate unchanged at 5.5%. In June, the Indian central bank surprisingly reduced the Repo Rate by 50 basis points (bps), citing that they have front-loaded interest rate cuts to boost economic growth. As the RBI is expected to maintain the status quo, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy guidance for the remainder of the year.Cooling inflationary pressures, US-India trade tensions, and the upcoming festive season point to the need for further monetary policy expansion in the near term. In June, the Retail inflation grew moderately by 2.1% on year, the lowest level seen in almost six years.In the US, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its monetary expansion cycle in the September meeting, which it paused in December, have capped the upside in the US Dollar.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the September meeting has increased to 92.2% from 41.2% seen on Thursday, a day before the release of the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data for July.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles near Friday’s low around 98.60.In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US revised S&P Global and ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published during North American trading hours.Technical Analysis: USD/INR reclaims all-time highs around 88.25USD/INR revisits all-time highs around 88.25 at open on Tuesday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 86.92.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting strong bullish momentum.Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the February 10 high around 88.15 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:23 Gold price bulls seem reluctant amid modest USD strength; downside seems cushioned
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below a nearly two-week high touched the previous day.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Gold price remains below a one-week high amid mixed fundamental cues.A modest USD strength and a positive risk tone cap the safe-haven commodity.Rising September Fed rate cut bets should act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD pair.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below a nearly two-week high touched the previous day. Friday's weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) pointed to a cooling labor market and fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and turns out to be a key factor lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week imposing tariffs on several trading partners that go into effect on August 7. Adding to this, the uncertainty over the fate of China's trade relations with the US further benefits the safe-haven Gold price. However, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying acts as a headwind for the precious metal. Moreover, the upbeat market mood contributes to keeping a lid on the commodity and warrants caution for bulls. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls have the upper hand as September Fed rate cut bets could cap the USDTraders ramped up their bets for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the release of the latest US jobs data, which pointed to a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September. The US Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Monday that Factory Orders plunged 4.8% in June following an upwardly revised 8.3% rise in the previous month. This adds to concerns about the state of the US economy amid US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and supports the Gold price. Trump signed an executive order last Thursday raising tariffs on dozens of countries, ranging from 10% to 41%, that go into effect on August 7. The Trump administration said that the universal tariff will remain at 10% for countries with which the US has a trade surplus, while nations with which the US has a trade deficit face a 15% floor. China and the US – the world's two largest economic giants – are yet to agree on a trade deal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that any extension of the 90-day tariff truce, which is set to expire later this month, would be up to Trump. This keeps investors on edge and could benefit the safe-haven commodity. The US Dollar attracts some buyers and, for now, seems to have stalled the post-NFP downfall from an over one-month peak. This is holding back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets and caps the upside. Traders now look to the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session. Gold price is more likely to attract dip-buyers and find decent support near the 200-SMA on H4, around the $3,350 areaFrom a technical perspective, Friday's breakout through the $3,335 horizontal barrier and a subsequent strength beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, oscillators on daily/4-hour charts have been gaining positive traction and back the case for an extension of a multi-day-old uptrend. Hence, any further slide below the $3,366-3,365 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,350-3,349 region. The latter represents the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,325-3,322 intermediate support en route to the $3,300 mark.On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the $3,385 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,400 round figure. Some follow-through buying should allow the Gold price to climb further towards the next relevant hurdle around the $3,434-3,435 area. The positive momentum could extend further and eventually lift the XAU/USD towards the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.14% 0.05% 0.06% 0.10% 0.26% 0.34% 0.27% EUR -0.14% -0.09% -0.07% -0.03% 0.04% 0.13% 0.13% GBP -0.05% 0.09% -0.02% 0.05% 0.13% 0.22% 0.10% JPY -0.06% 0.07% 0.02% 0.04% 0.28% 0.26% 0.20% CAD -0.10% 0.03% -0.05% -0.04% 0.11% 0.16% 0.04% AUD -0.26% -0.04% -0.13% -0.28% -0.11% 0.13% -0.03% NZD -0.34% -0.13% -0.22% -0.26% -0.16% -0.13% -0.05% CHF -0.27% -0.13% -0.10% -0.20% -0.04% 0.03% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:07 Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (4.8%) in 2Q: Actual (5.12%)
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (4.8%) in 2Q: Actual (5.12%)
07:07 Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 4.04% above expectations (3.7%) in 2Q
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 4.04% above expectations (3.7%) in 2Q
07:06 GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3250 as investors brace for US ISM Services PMI release
The GBP/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3280 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Nonetheless, rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Cable.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:43 EUR/USD inches lower to near 1.1550 ahead of HCOB PMI data from Eurozone, Germany
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1560 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground following traders’ caution, driven by the latest global trade developments and shifting expectations for monetary policy.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:10 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $37.50 amid growing odds of Fed rate cut
Silver price (XAG/USD) moves little after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around $37.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price may attract buying interest amid rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September.CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in a 91.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that while there are several reasons to begin considering rate cuts.Silver price (XAG/USD) moves little after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around $37.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-interest-bearing Silver may attract buyers amid growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 91.6% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, driven by weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook.Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly said late Monday that although there are plenty of reasons to start looking at interest rate cuts, there remains plenty of uncertainty, making it difficult for Fed officials to step into rate trimming too quickly. We can't wait to be certain there is no inflation persistence, need to make a call based on what's most likely, Daly added.Moreover, the demand of the safe-haven Silver may further appreciate due to rising concerns overthe Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler has given an unexpected resignation, which has provided US President Donald Trump an earlier-than-anticipated opportunity to influence the central bank. This situation allows Trump to nominate a replacement potentially more aligned with his calls for lower rates.Silver price may find support amid rising trade uncertainties, as Trump's latest round of tariffs on exports from numerous trading partners is scheduled to take effect on August 7. Additionally, traders will closely watch the US ISM Services PMI due later on Tuesday, with expectations for an uptick to 51.5 in July from 50.8 previously. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:32 Japanese Yen surrenders intraday gains; USD/JPY retakes 147.00 amid modest USD uptick
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touched a nearly two-week high against its American counterpart following the release of the June Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting Minutes, which reaffirmed bets for an imminent interest rate hike by the year-end.
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Adding to this, an upward revision of Japan's Services PMI turns out to be another factor that provided a modest lift to the JPY during the Asian session on Tuesday. The JPY, however, struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid concerns that domestic political uncertainty and signs of cooling inflation in Japan could complicate the BoJ's policy normalization path.Adding to this, the upbeat market mood contributes to capping the safe-haven JPY. This, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, assists the USD/JPY pair to rebound around 35-40 pips from the daily trough and climb back above the 147.00 mark in the last hour. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a greater chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. This marks a significant divergence from hawkish BoJ expectations and should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY. Moreover, rising Fed rate cut bets should cap the USD and the currency pair.Japanese Yen is underpinned by reviving BoJ rate hike bets; positive risk tone caps further gainsThe Bank of Japan, in the Minutes of the June meeting released this Tuesday, reiterated that it will hike interest rates further if growth and inflation continue to advance in line with its estimates. The minutes also revealed that most BoJ members supported keeping interest rates unchanged for the time being amid heightened uncertainty over US trade tariffs.The S&P Global Japan Services PMI rose to 53.6 in July 2025, slightly above the flash estimate of 53.5 and up from 51.7 in the previous month, marking the fourth straight month of expansion and the fastest pace since February. Moreover, the composite PMI rose slightly to 51.6 last month, marking the strongest overall business activity growth since February.The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in the July 20 polls fueled concerns about Japan's fiscal health amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This suggests that prospects for BoJ rate hikes could be delayed further. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week downplayed inflation risks and signaled continued policy patience.Asian equity markets take cues from the overnight sharp rebound on Wall Street and scale higher during the Asian session on Tuesday. This, in turn, undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets and contributes to capping the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, on the other hand, gains some positive traction and further offers some support to the USD/JPY pair.Any meaningful USD appreciation seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. The bets were lifted by Friday's weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which pointed to a cooling labor market. Moreover, concerns about the Fed's independence warrant caution for the USD bulls.US President Donald Trump ordered the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics hours after the dismal employment details. Moreover, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned from her position on the central bank’s board. This comes amid relentless political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs and should keep a lid on the USD.Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool implies over 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September and around 65 basis points of easing by the end of this year. This keeps US Treasury bond yields depressed and weighs on the USD, which, in turn, might act as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair and warrant some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery.Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Services PMI for a fresh impetus later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY shows some resilience below the 50% retracement level; upside potential seems limitedFrom a technical perspective, spot prices showed some resilience below the 50% retracement level of the rally from the July swing low, and the subsequent move back above the 147.00 mark warrants caution for the USD/JPY bears. Meanwhile, neutral oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any further recovery is more likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 147.35 area ahead of the 147.75 region, or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 148.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the USD/JPY pair has formed a near-term bottom and shift the bias in favor of bullish traders.On the flip side, the 50% retracement level, around the 146.85 region, now seems to act as an immediate support. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the 146.60 area, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 146.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further and eventually drag spot prices to the 145.85 zone, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:11 NZD/USD remains weak near 0.5900 despite upbeat Chinese Services PMI data
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5900 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) despite the upbeat Chinese economic data.
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China’s Caixin Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 52.6 in July, stronger than expected. The US ISM Services PMI for July will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5900 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) despite the upbeat Chinese economic data. The attention will shift to the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will be published later on Tuesday.Data released by Caixin on Tuesday showed that China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly climbed to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 50.2. However, the upbeat Chinese data fails to boost the China-proxy Kiwi as traders remain focused on the trade negotiations between the USA and China. US Treasury Secretary Beseent said that an extension of the trade truce between the world's two leading economies is "likely," but markets remain cautious ahead of the August 12 deadline. Any signs of escalating trade tensions between the US and China could exert some selling pressure on the NZD, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. On the USD’s front, the weaker-than-expected US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), along with the unexpected resignation by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler, might weigh on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair. Fed funds futures traders ramped up bets on rate cuts after the downbeat US economic data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly an 84% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the September meeting. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:11 Australian Dollar remains subdued despite stronger China Services PMI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground for the second successive day despite the release of improved S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data on Tuesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains under pressure despite improved domestic S&P PMI data.China's Caixin Services PMI rose to 52.6 in July, against the expected 50.2.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's resignation has given Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to influence the direction of the central bank.The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground for the second successive day despite the release of improved S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains steady, driven by the latest global trade developments and shifting expectations for monetary policy.The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI climbed to 53.8 in July from 51.6 in June, signaling a tenth consecutive monthly rise in business activity and the strongest expansion in private sector activity since April 2022. Meanwhile, Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 54.1 in July from 51.8 in June, marking the highest level since March 2024.China's Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index unexpectedly jumped to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. The market forecast was for a 50.2 print in the reported period.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut next week, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.60%. The case for easing has grown stronger as core inflation slowed to 2.7% in June, well within the RBA’s 2–3% target, along with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth.Australian Dollar struggles as US Dollar steadies ahead of ISM Services PMIThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the second successive day and trading around 98.80 at the time of writing. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will take center stage later in the North American session.US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler has given an unexpected resignation, which has provided US President Donald Trump an earlier-than-anticipated opportunity to influence the central bank. This development has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence.The Trump administration dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after the weaker-than-expected jobs report. This action could be a broader strategy to undermine the credibility of official inflation data, with potential implications for markets and Fed policy debates.Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 73,000 in July, compared to a 14,000 increase (revised from 147,000) seen in June. This figure came in weaker than the market expectation of 110,000. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, as expected.President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%, set to go into effect on August 1, on US imports from dozens of countries and foreign locations, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, that failed to reach the trade deals deadline, per Reuters.The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5% at its July meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a post-policy conference that the US central bank has "made no decisions" about a potential policy change in September, and it may take a bit to assess the effect of tariffs on consumer prices.The US and China were unable to reach an agreement on extending the 90-day tariff pause during their latest round of talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The current pause is set to expire on August 12, with the final decision resting in the hands of US President Donald Trump. In the meantime, US tariffs have been lowered from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs have been reduced from 125% to 10%.TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.9% month-over-month in July, following June’s modest 0.1% rise and marking the sharpest rise since December 2023. Meanwhile, the annual inflation gauge remained consistent at a 2.4% increase. The monthly increase adds to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) concerns amid continued uncertainty in supply chains and consumer demand.Australia was spared from the latest United States (US) tariff hikes, indicating that President Donald Trump had left the 10% baseline tariffs on Australian goods unchanged. Moreover, a weaker United States (US) jobs report prompted market reaction to price in two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).Australian Dollar remains subdued near 0.6450 amid a persistent bearish biasThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6470 on Tuesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a bearish bias, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding below the 50 level. The pair is also positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weakening short-term momentum.On the downside, the primary support appears at the two-month low of 0.6419, which was recorded on August 1. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to test a three-month low at 0.6372, recorded on June 23.The AUD/USD pair could approach the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6485, aligned with the 50-day EMA of 0.6494. A break above these levels could strengthen the short- and medium-term price momentum and support the pair to explore the region around the nine-month high at 0.6625.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% -0.02% -0.06% 0.00% 0.13% 0.18% 0.17% EUR -0.07% -0.10% -0.12% -0.05% -0.02% 0.04% 0.10% GBP 0.02% 0.10% -0.06% 0.04% 0.08% 0.14% 0.07% JPY 0.06% 0.12% 0.06% 0.07% 0.27% 0.22% 0.22% CAD -0.01% 0.05% -0.04% -0.07% 0.07% 0.09% 0.03% AUD -0.13% 0.02% -0.08% -0.27% -0.07% 0.09% -0.00% NZD -0.18% -0.04% -0.14% -0.22% -0.09% -0.09% 0.00% CHF -0.17% -0.10% -0.07% -0.22% -0.03% 0.00% -0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Caixin Services PMI The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at both private-sector and state-owned companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Tue Aug 05, 2025 01:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.6 Consensus: 50.2 Previous: 50.6 Source: IHS Markit
04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI unexpectedly jumps to 52.6 in July vs. 50.2 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly leaped to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Tuesday.
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China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly leaped to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Tuesday.The market forecast was for a 50.2 print in the reported period.AUD/USD reaction to China’s Services PMIThe Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD), shrugs off the upbeat data, with AUD/USD keeping its range near 0.6470, up 0.12% on the day as of writing. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:45 China Caixin Services PMI above expectations (50.2) in July: Actual (52.6)
China Caixin Services PMI above expectations (50.2) in July: Actual (52.6)
04:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -1% (July) vs previous 1.8%
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -1% (July) vs previous 1.8%
04:26 US Dollar Index softens to below 99.00, US ISM Services PMI data in focus
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a negative note around 98.70 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1366 vs. 7.1395 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1366 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1395 and 7.1667 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1366 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1395 and 7.1667 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:06 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous -2.3% to -1.8% in July
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous -2.3% to -1.8% in July
03:58 Japan's Akazawa says will focus on timing of presidential order on car tariff
Japanese Economy Minister and chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday that he will push the United States (US) to give an order to take the auto tariff into effect as soon as possible.
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Japanese Economy Minister and chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday that he will push the United States (US) to give an order to take the auto tariff into effect as soon as possible.Key quotesTo push U.S. to give order to take auto tariff to take effect as soon as possible.
One of purposes of U.S. visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement. Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.10% lower on the day to trade at 146.95. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
One of purposes of U.S. visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement. Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.10% lower on the day to trade at 146.95. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 53.6 in July from previous 53.5
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 53.6 in July from previous 53.5
03:21 WTI posts modest losses near $65.50 amid oversupply concerns, Russia uncertainty
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.65 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday.
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OPEC+ agreed to hike output by 547,000 barrels per day for September.Traders await the API weekly crude oil stock report later on Tuesday for fresh impetus. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.65 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI trades with mild losses after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) approved another significant production increase in September. OPEC+ met virtually on Sunday, agreeing to boost oil production by 547K barrels per day (bps) for September as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia. The group began increasing output in April with a modest hike of 138K bpd, followed by larger-than-expected rises of 411K bpd in May, June, and July, 548K bpd in August, and now 547K bpd for September.The threat of secondary sanctions on Russian crude might help limit the WTI’s losses. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Oil traders will closely monitor the development surrounding the agreement between Washington and Moscow. However, the impact of any potential measures remains uncertain. “The oil market is still assigning a low probability to anything meaningful from the White House as it relates to Russian oil exports,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James.Oil traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report, which is due later on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil stockpiles report will be released. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:01 BoJ Minutes say will continue raising policy rate if economy, prices move in line forecast
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Tuesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the June meeting.
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Tuesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the June meeting. Key quotesMany members said inflation somewhat overshooting forecast but must scrutinise economic developments due to downside risk to growth from US tariff policy.
One member said must support economy with current rate level as underlying inflation likely to stagnate temporarily.
Another member said now is period where we must scrutinise impact of BOJ’s January rate hike on economy, prices.
Members shared view BOJ expected to continue raising policy rate if economy, prices move in line with its forecast.
A few members said BOJ will likely consider resuming rate hikes once there are prospects trade woes stabilise.
One member said rate hike phase may be on pause for time being, but BOJ must respond nimbly, resume rate hike depending on U.S. policy development.
One member said BOJ may need to ‘decisively’ adjust degree of monetary support even during period of uncertainty as inflation is moving above expectations.One member said appropriate to keep policy rate at current level for time being as it will take more time to have more clarity on corporate profits, Japan-US trade talks outcome.MOF representative said hopes BOJ takes appropriate, flexible response as needed with due consideration to bond market stability, in tapering its bond buying.One member said the recent sharp rises in super-long yields in major economies warrants attention.A few members said expansionary fiscal policies, loose-monetary policies sought by some countries could moderate pace of slowdown in global economy.Market reaction to the BoJ Minutes At the time of writing, USD/JPY was down 0.29% on the day at 146.65. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
One member said must support economy with current rate level as underlying inflation likely to stagnate temporarily.
Another member said now is period where we must scrutinise impact of BOJ’s January rate hike on economy, prices.
Members shared view BOJ expected to continue raising policy rate if economy, prices move in line with its forecast.
A few members said BOJ will likely consider resuming rate hikes once there are prospects trade woes stabilise.
One member said rate hike phase may be on pause for time being, but BOJ must respond nimbly, resume rate hike depending on U.S. policy development.
One member said BOJ may need to ‘decisively’ adjust degree of monetary support even during period of uncertainty as inflation is moving above expectations.One member said appropriate to keep policy rate at current level for time being as it will take more time to have more clarity on corporate profits, Japan-US trade talks outcome.MOF representative said hopes BOJ takes appropriate, flexible response as needed with due consideration to bond market stability, in tapering its bond buying.One member said the recent sharp rises in super-long yields in major economies warrants attention.A few members said expansionary fiscal policies, loose-monetary policies sought by some countries could moderate pace of slowdown in global economy.Market reaction to the BoJ Minutes At the time of writing, USD/JPY was down 0.29% on the day at 146.65. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:48 GBP/USD looks upwards ahead of looming BoE rate cut
GBP/USD pumped the brakes on Monday, holding steady near the 1.3300 handle after a sharp rebound brought on by fresh Greenback weakness thanks to an unexpected softening in US labor data late last week.
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GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:31 EU will delay retaliation against US tariffs for six months - CNBC
The European Union (EU) announced on Monday that it will delay its planned retaliatory tariffs against the United States’ tariffs for six months, which were set to take effect on Thursday, CNBC reported late Monday.
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The European Union (EU) announced on Monday that it will delay its planned retaliatory tariffs against the United States’ tariffs for six months, which were set to take effect on Thursday, CNBC reported late Monday. Additional takeawaysFollowing weeks of trade talks, the EU has agreed to a six-month suspension of its countermeasures in a move seen as a concession to ease transatlantic trade tensions.
An EU trade spokesperson said the 27 July agreement aimed to restore stability and predictability for businesses and citizens.
The formal pause is expected to take effect on Tuesday, as both sides work toward finalizing a joint statement on trade.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.10% on the day at 1.1585. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
An EU trade spokesperson said the 27 July agreement aimed to restore stability and predictability for businesses and citizens.
The formal pause is expected to take effect on Tuesday, as both sides work toward finalizing a joint statement on trade.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.10% on the day at 1.1585. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
02:08 USD/CAD trades with mild losses below 1.3800 ahead of US ISM Services PMI data
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3775 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Weaker-than-expected US July employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve Governor weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
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Lower crude oil prices might weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the downside for the pair. The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3775 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Weaker-than-expected US July employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve Governor weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will take center stage later on Tuesday. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday missed the estimates, with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rising by 73,000 in July, versus a 14,000 increase (revised from 147,000) in the prior month. This reading came in worse than the estimations of 110,000. Additionally, the US Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, as expected. The readings prompted investors to ramp up bets of imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which undermine the Greenback. An unexpected resignation by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler also opened the door for US President Donald Trump to make an imprint on the US central bank much earlier than expected. The developments raise concern over the Fed’s independence and contribute to the USD’s downside.On the other hand, a decline in crude oil prices might drag the commodity-linked Loonie lower and create a tailwind for the pair. Oil prices edge lower after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) announced plans to boost oil production by 547K barrels per day (bps) for September. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:00 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI up to 53.8 in July from previous 53.6
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI up to 53.8 in July from previous 53.6
02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) registered at 2.1%, below expectations (2.13%) in July
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) registered at 2.1%, below expectations (2.13%) in July
02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) below expectations (0.22%) in July: Actual (0.2%)
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) below expectations (0.22%) in July: Actual (0.2%)
02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.1 above expectations (53.8) in July
Australia S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.1 above expectations (53.8) in July
01:59 EUR/USD flatlines after Friday’s surge as Fed dovish bets build, Eurozone sentiment sours
The EUR/USD stagnates during Monday’s session, virtually unchanged, after Friday’s rally of over 1.52% following a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, which triggered a ramp-up of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting.
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The pair trades near Friday’s closing price.The Euro failed to rally, even though some developments pressured the US Dollar. The latest employment report witnessed a revision of the May and June figures, which were sharply revised downward , triggering the firing of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) head.That data, along with a weak ISM Manufacturing PMI reading, triggered a reaction by investors who seem confident that the Fed might ease policy at least by 59 basis points (bps) to support the economy.Today’s data revealed that Factory Orders in June plummeted as expected, ahead of a light calendar that will feature the announcement of the ISM Services PMI, Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment data, and Fed speakers.Across the pond, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index tumbled in August to -3.7, following July’s 4.5, according to the latest survey. The Current Situation sub-component declined in August compared to July. The survey noted that “The tariff agreement is proving to be a real mood killer.”EU to suspend trade countermeasures on the US for six months as part of the US/EU trade agreement.The odds for a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed at the September meeting are at 90%, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains steady amid economic slowdown fearsOther developments during the last week witnessed the firing of the BLS head and the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, effective on August 8, which opens the door for President Donald Trump to nominate a “dovish” leaning Governor that could be nominated for the Fed’s top job.Factory Orders fell sharply by 4.8% MoM in June, matching expectations but marking a steep reversal from May’s 8.2% surge. A slump in commercial aircraft orders largely drove the decline. Broader manufacturing activity remains under pressure, as tariffs continue to elevate input costs and constrain production.Also, the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted last week, resuming its downward trend for the second consecutive month. July Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.7 in July, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 61.8, according to the University of Michigan survey.Wall Street extended its losses amidst fears of an economic slowdown in the US. July Nonfarm Payroll figures were expected to be weaker compared to June’s, but the revision of the previous two months drove the EUR/USD higher. May and June figures were revised down by 258K.Alongside this, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that manufacturing activity contracted. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment in June deteriorated, ending a bad day of economic reports for the US economy.Technical outlook: EUR/USD upside clears above 1.1600, with bulls eyeing 1.1650The EURUSD remains set to consolidate if buyers fail to clear 1.1600. Momentum remains bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but is aimed toward its neutral line, an indication that bulls are stepping in.A breach of 1.1600 would expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1630, followed by 1.1650 and the 1.1700 mark. On the flipside, a drop below the 50-day SMA at 1.1576 clears the way to 1.1550, subsequently followed by the 1.1500 figure. The next area of interest would be August’s low of 1.1391. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:27 Australian Dollar holds steady heading into Tuesday
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held steady on Monday, holding onto last week’s late gains against the US Dollar (USD). AUD/USD kept a tight grip on the 0.6470 region, keeping the pair locked in against the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
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AUD/USD kept a tight grip on the 0.6470 region, keeping the pair locked in against the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A much-needed moment of Greenback selling helped to snap the Aussie’s six-day losing streak, and traders are now pivoting to watching for trade headlines.Australia’s Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation gauge hit a 20-month high in July, rising 0.9% MoM, its highest single-month increase since December 2023. Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.9% last week, dragging Q1 inflation metrics below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target band and locking in an interest rate cut at the upcoming interest rate decision on August 12.Australian markets remain exposed to fallout from the Trump administration’s whiplash tariff policies, keeping general risk appetite underbid in the Australian quarters. Australia is opening up its consumer market to beef imports from Canada for the first time since 2003, dealing a potential blow to US President Donald Trump’s claims that the US will be exporting huge amounts of American beef to the Australian markets as a result of his strong-arm tariff policies targeting Australia.Data-light week puts trade headlines in the front seatThe Australian data docket is a mid-tier affair this week. Australian Trade Balance figures for June are due on Thursday and are expected to show a jump from $ 2.238B to $ 3.25B MoM; however, the figure is too backdated for investors to do anything about.Before that, the latest Chinese Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July will print early Tuesday. Knock-on effects for the Australian Dollar could surface as data watchers wait for signs that the Trump administration’s tariff plans for China could have knock-on effects on the Australian economy. July’s Caixin Chinese Services PMI is expected to tick down to 50.2 from 50.6.Australia abandons Musk’s Tesla as home battery system rebates kick inEV superstar Tesla (TSLA) has been backsliding in global sales consistently in 2025, and the Tesla fall-off has now spread to the home battery market. Tesla’s global share in the sales of home batteries for power storage has shrunken from 20% to just 5% in seven months. The “brand destruction” by Elon Musk is incredibly poorly timed: Australian government rebates for home battery systems are kicking in this year, and Australia is on pace to sell as many batteries in the first ten weeks of the rebate program as were sold in the entirety of 2024.According to a report by Australian market research firm Roy Morgan, Tesla and Elon Musk’s adjacent companies have slipped into the top 10 least-trusted companies in Australia, joining Chinese discount goods supergiant Temu, Musk’s X/Twitter, and Meta/Facebook as some of the least trustworthy companies in the Australian market.AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:00 South Korea FX Reserves increased to 411.33B in July from previous 410.2B
South Korea FX Reserves increased to 411.33B in July from previous 410.2B
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