ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
03:33 Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.2 % MoM in February vs. 0.3% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a rise of 0.3% in January, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday.
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Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a rise of 0.3% in January, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday.
The reading came in below the market expectations of 0.3%. Market reaction to Australia’s Retail Sales data At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.10% on the day at 0.6241. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The reading came in below the market expectations of 0.3%. Market reaction to Australia’s Retail Sales data At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.10% on the day at 0.6241. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (March) vs previous 49.9
South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (March) vs previous 49.9
03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4, above expectations (48.3) in March
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4, above expectations (48.3) in March
03:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February
03:02 Iran warns will respond swiftly, decisively, to act of aggression or attack by US, Israel
Iran's U.N. Ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, wrote in a letter that Tehran "strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests,” per Reuters.
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Iran's U.N. Ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, wrote in a letter that Tehran "strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests,” per Reuters.
This action came after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. Market reaction At the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.07% lower on the day to trade at $3,120. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
This action came after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. Market reaction At the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.07% lower on the day to trade at $3,120. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing fell from previous 51.9 to 51.6 in March
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing fell from previous 51.9 to 51.6 in March
03:00 South Korea Trade Balance registered at $4.99B, below expectations ($6.1B) in March
South Korea Trade Balance registered at $4.99B, below expectations ($6.1B) in March
03:00 EUR/USD holds steady ahead of this week’s tariff showdown
EUR/USD flubbed a bullish run at the 1.0850 level on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on decidedly tepid footing.
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European inflation figures will be updated this week, with preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation slated for a Wednesday release. Not much change is expected on the pan-EU inflation front, with price pressures remaining stubbornly stable but delivering few surprises in 2025.
On the American side, a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due later this week. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap, with buyers unable to take a firm leg higher, but short pressure too limited to push Fiber price action back under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle.
EUR/USD snapped a near-term losing streak, pushing technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern remains unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:55 Japan's Large Manufacturing Index eases to 12.0 in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 – Tankan survey
Business confidence at large manufacturers in Japan eases in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday.
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Business confidence at large manufacturers in Japan eases in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday.
The headline large Manufacturers' Sentiment Index came in at 12.0 in Q1 from the previous reading of 14.0, in line with the market consensus.
Further details unveil that the large Manufacturing Outlook for the first quarter arrived at 12.0 versus 13.0 prior. This figure came in stronger than the 9.0 expected. Market reaction to Japan’s Tankan survey At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was unchanged on the day at 149.98. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The headline large Manufacturers' Sentiment Index came in at 12.0 in Q1 from the previous reading of 14.0, in line with the market consensus.
Further details unveil that the large Manufacturing Outlook for the first quarter arrived at 12.0 versus 13.0 prior. This figure came in stronger than the 9.0 expected. Market reaction to Japan’s Tankan survey At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was unchanged on the day at 149.98. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:51 GBP/USD treads water as markets await tariff blowback
GBP/USD churned chart paper in familiar territory on Monday, grinding out a familiar congestion zone as investors brace for the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
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The specific details of the Trump administration’s tariff plans for this week remain fuzzy and elusive, but prominent tariff threats remain “reciprocal” tariffs on every country that have their own import tariffs on US goods, regardless of the economic context. Further retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the European Union are also expected, with additional flat tariffs proposed on Copper and automobiles across the board.
The release schedule on the UK side of the economic data docket remains light this week, but a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due later this week. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD has chalked in a firm consolidation phase just below the 1.3000 handle. Pound traders remain unwilling to push bids any higher, and Greenback flows are also dominating most of the marketscape. However, Cable short pressure also remains limited.
Bullish trendlines remain intact from January’s deep swing low at the 1.2100 price level, and momentum remains in favor of bidders as price action churns on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling?
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook registered at 28, below expectations (29) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook registered at 28, below expectations (29) in 1Q
02:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at 12, above expectations (9) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at 12, above expectations (9) in 1Q
02:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (12) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (12) in 1Q
02:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index came in at 35, above forecasts (33) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index came in at 35, above forecasts (33) in 1Q
02:50 Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell from previous 11.3% to 3.1% in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell from previous 11.3% to 3.1% in 1Q
02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in February
Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in February
02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.24, below expectations (1.26) in February
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.24, below expectations (1.26) in February
02:20 US President Donald Trump says reciprocal tariffs will start with all countries
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that his reciprocal tariffs plan will target all other countries when they are unveiled Wednesday, adding more uncertainty to the much-anticipated trade policy just days before its implementation.
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US President Donald Trump said late Monday that his reciprocal tariffs plan will target all other countries when they are unveiled Wednesday, adding more uncertainty to the much-anticipated trade policy just days before its implementation.
Trump pushed back on the possibility that the fresh tariffs will target just the top 10 or 15 trade partners that have their own import duties on US goods. Market reaction At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.01% on the day at 104.19. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Trump pushed back on the possibility that the fresh tariffs will target just the top 10 or 15 trade partners that have their own import duties on US goods. Market reaction At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.01% on the day at 104.19. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
02:02 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.4% (March) vs -0.7%
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.4% (March) vs -0.7%
02:02 USD/CAD strengthens to near 1.4400 amid rising risk aversion
The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.4390 during the late American session on Monday.
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US President Donald Trump said that his reciprocal tariff plan will target all other countries when it comes up on Wednesday, adding uncertainty to the much-anticipated trade policy just days before its implementation. Trump denied that the additional tariffs will target just the top 10 or 15 trade partners that have their own import duties on US goods.
The Loonie remains under selling pressure since Trump last week signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and pledged harsher punishment on the EU and Canada if they join forces against the US. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the US, including oil and autos.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked CAD in the near term and create a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
US President Donald Trump said that his reciprocal tariff plan will target all other countries when it comes up on Wednesday, adding uncertainty to the much-anticipated trade policy just days before its implementation. Trump denied that the additional tariffs will target just the top 10 or 15 trade partners that have their own import duties on US goods.
The Loonie remains under selling pressure since Trump last week signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and pledged harsher punishment on the EU and Canada if they join forces against the US. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the US, including oil and autos.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked CAD in the near term and create a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
01:47 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Stalls below 200-day SMA as bulls struggle for momentum
The GBP/JPY begins Tuesday’s Asian session mostly unchanged, trading at 193.63, below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 193.91, as it consolidates on top and below of the latter.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY consolidates in tight 192.70–193.98 range, hovering just below 200-day SMA at 193.91.Bullish bias intact above Kumo, but buyers must clear 194.00 and 195.71 to resume upward trajectory.A drop below 192.89/193.00 could expose 191.81 Kijun-sen and 50-day SMA at 191.63.The GBP/JPY begins Tuesday’s Asian session mostly unchanged, trading at 193.63, below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 193.91, as it consolidates on top and below of the latter. The cross pair remains steady within the 192.70 – 193.98 range, with buyers unable to extend its gains.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY is neutral to upward biased, with buyers' lack of strength to push prices above the 200-day SMA, so they would shift the bias to bullish. Even though price action is above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), bulls must clear 194.00 alongside the March 28 peak of 195.71, so the uptrend could resume.
Key resistance levels lie above the latter, like 196.00 and the January 7 daily high of 198.24. On the flip side, if GBP/JPY tumbles below the confluence of the top of the Kumo and the 100-day SMA around 192.89/193.00, this could exacerbate a retest of 191.81, where the Kijun-sen lies, followed by the 50-day SMA at 191.63.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.07% -0.02% -0.06% 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% -0.03% EUR 0.07% -0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.05% 0.08% -0.01% GBP 0.02% 0.00% -0.04% 0.03% 0.04% 0.08% -0.01% JPY 0.06% 0.00% 0.04% 0.08% 0.08% 0.10% 0.03% CAD -0.01% -0.04% -0.03% -0.08% 0.00% 0.05% -0.05% AUD -0.03% -0.05% -0.04% -0.08% -0.01% 0.03% -0.06% NZD -0.08% -0.08% -0.08% -0.10% -0.05% -0.03% -0.09% CHF 0.03% 0.00% 0.01% -0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.09%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
01:03 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 52.6 to 52.1 in March
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 52.6 to 52.1 in March
00:45 RBA set to hold interest rate as markets await Bullock’s speech for clues on next policy steps
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is having its monetary policy meeting and will announce its decision early on Tuesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold in March.RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments could trigger some market reactions.The Australian Dollar is weak ahead of the announcement amid ruling risk aversion.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is having its monetary policy meeting and will announce its decision early on Tuesday. The RBA is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10% following the interest cut delivered in February.
Back then, the central bank announced a 25 basis points (bps) trim, the first one since late in 2020. The new decision will be announced at 03:30 GMT, and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 04:30 GMT.
RBA to hold, eyes on Governor Bullock’s clue on interest rate
The RBA had maintained the OCR at multi-year highs for longer than any other central bank, however, tepid economic growth took its toll on policymakers, which finally delivered in February.
“The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy has been restrictive and will remain so after this reduction in the cash rate. Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and there are signs that disinflation might be occurring a little more quickly than earlier expected. There are nevertheless risks on both sides,” the February statement reads.
Even further, policymakers added: “The forecasts published today suggest that, if monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall, and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range. In removing a little of the policy restrictiveness in its decision today, the board acknowledges that progress has been made but is cautious about the outlook.”
Subtly, officials suggested they would have a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. With that in mind, market players anticipated no movements in March, moreover considering the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will not be released until the end of April. Policymakers will likely wait for the growth update and additional inflation data before deciding on the next movement.
It is worth remembering that the Australian economy grew 1.3% in the final quarter of 2024, slightly better than the 1.2% anticipated by market participants. Exports supported broad-based growth, which, anyway, was considered “modest” by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Meanwhile, headline inflation dropped to a three-year low of 2.4% in the three months to December, according to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while underlying inflation shrank to a three-year low of 3.2%. The figures made it easy for the RBA to deliver a rate cut. Still, the next quarterly inflation report will be out in roughly a month, giving RBA policymakers another reason to delay modifying rates until May.
With no changes expected in the OCR, the focus will be on Governor Michele Bullock’s words and any hint she may offer about the future of monetary policy. Whereas the Board discussed rate cuts or not would give a picture of how concerned officials are. The more dovish the perspective, the more chances of an interest rate trim in the foreseeable future.
How will the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision impact AUD/USD?
Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is under strong selling pressure, with the AUD/USD pair approaching the 0.6200 mark and trading at its lowest since March 4. The ongoing slump has little to do with Australia and is purely linked to market panic amid United States (US) tariffs. President Donald Trump is set to launch his “Liberation Day,” that is, massive reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, while threatening to add more levies on US imports. Financial markets fear this will take its toll on global growth.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair is bearish ahead of the announcement, and the odds that the RBA can trigger a recovery seem limited. The anticipated on-hold decision, the most likely outcome, and the fact that the Board will wait for more data, anticipate that the decision could be a non-event. Tariff-related concerns are expected to keep overshadowing macro announcements.”
“Indeed, a surprise announcement, such as an unexpected rate cut or hike, could result in crazy volatility around the AUD/USD,” Bednarik adds, although clarifying that both are quite unlikely scenarios.
Finally, Bednarik notes: “From a technical point of view, the risk skews to the downside, given that the AUD/USD pair daily chart shows it develops below all its moving averages, while the downward momentum remains strong. Below the 0.6200 mark, the next relevant support is the March monthly low at 0.6186, followed by the 0.6130 price zone. Resistance, on the other hand, comes at around 0.6300, followed by the recent highs in the 0.6330 region.”
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Economic Indicator
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 01, 2025 03:30 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.1%Previous: 4.1%Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
00:35 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi extends losses toward mid-0.5600s as bearish tone prevails
NZD/USD extended its decline on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, slipping to the mid-0.5600s and pressing into the lower half of the recent range.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5670 zone ahead of the Asian session, slipping further within Monday's intraday range.The bearish bias strengthens as the pair breaks below key averages while technical indicators remain broadly negative.Support lies below recent lows, while resistance aligns near the 0.5700–0.5710 congestion area.NZD/USD extended its decline on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, slipping to the mid-0.5600s and pressing into the lower half of the recent range. The pair remains under pressure as technical indicators flash bearish cues, with sellers gaining the upper hand after a failed attempt to consolidate around the 0.5730 zone.
Daily chart
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a fresh sell bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 42.7 is gradually moving lower. The Awesome Oscillator echoes a similar neutral tone, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction in the short term.
From a trend perspective, selling pressure is confirmed by key moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57347, 100-day SMA at 0.57269, and the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.59120 all slope downward, reinforcing a bearish structure. Additional short-term signals from the 10-day EMA at 0.57267 and 10-day SMA at 0.57449 also support the downside outlook.
On the downside, the next line of support may emerge below 0.5670, with previous swing lows and psychological barriers likely to be tested. Resistance remains capped near 0.5700, followed by 0.57050 and 0.57084. A break above these could ease short-term pressure, but the broader structure remains tilted to the downside unless buyers reclaim ground above the 20 and 100-day SMAs.
00:32 Canadian Dollar extends declines as tariff pressures weigh on Loonie markets
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) headed lower on Monday, kicking off the new trading week by shedding half of a percent against the US Dollar (USD) as the Trump administration’s April 2 deadline for sweeping tariffs looms ahead.
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The Trump team still intends to carry through with a wide swath of targeted and “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, which will include retaliatory tariffs on any country that has its own import restrictions on US goods, as well as targeted sector tariffs on automobiles, as well as Canadian goods and materials from the European Union.
Daily digest market movers: Markets jostle for position ahead of tariff deadline The Canadian Dollar slipped on Monday, falling 0.5% against the Greenback as market flow jitters underpin positioning. Tariff concerns are quickly taking center stage, crimping investor sentiment. The Trump administration is poised to kick in several tariff packages, many of which will be cumulative and drastically impact both US consumers and US trading partners. Key labor data is due at the end of the week from both Canada and the US. Canadian labor figures and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) prints this week will serve as “bellwether” datapoints for pre- and post-tariff analysis.
Canadian Dollar price forecast: Loonie extends backslide as tariffs loom
The Canadian Dollar lost further ground to kick off the new trading week, falling against the US Dollar and kicking the USD/CAD chart back toward the 1.4400 handle. Despite the Loonie’s fresh-found weakness in the face of tariff pressures, USD/CAD remains in incredibly familiar territory.
USD/CAD has cycled within a choppy range for nearly four months. The Loonie remains trapped in congestion against the Greenback, and even near-term choppiness from geopolitical factors leaves USD/CAD in an environment where technical patterns still lend themselves to trading consolidation patterns.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
00:14 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish pressure builds as pair slips below 94.00 zone
The AUD/JPY pair drifted lower on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, trading around the 93.80 zone and extending its decline toward the bottom of its intraday range.
AUD/JPY trades near the 93.80 area ahead of the Asian session, posting losses within the lower end of its daily range.The pair is flashing bearish signals despite a buy reading from the MACD, with momentum indicators and moving averages skewing negative.Support lies near 93.78, while resistance appears around the 94.05–94.27 zone.The AUD/JPY pair drifted lower on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, trading around the 93.80 zone and extending its decline toward the bottom of its intraday range. The pair remains under mild pressure as market sentiment turns cautious. Technical indicators and trend signals are increasingly skewed to the downside, even though some momentum readings offer mixed signals.
Daily chart
Looking at trend indicators, all key moving averages reinforce selling pressure. The 20-day SMA at 94.05, 100-day SMA at 96.76, and 200-day SMA at 98.63 are all tilted downward, with shorter-term averages like the 10-day EMA (94.33) and SMA (94.43) also pointing south. These align with the broader bearish technical tone for the pair.
Immediate support can be found at 93.78, with further downside targets near 93.05. On the upside, resistance levels are stacked at 93.92, 94.05, and 94.26. Unless the pair reclaims ground above these zones, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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