Week Ahead: Big Week For Oil Markets…

Fasten your seatbelts because the next few days could be wild for oil markets.

The global commodity may be injected with fresh volatility due to not only the OPEC+ meeting but developments revolving around European Union sanctions on Russian oil. Other factors like geopolitical risks, economic data and overall sentiment may play an important role in shaping the global commodities outlook for the rest of 2022.

Before we tackle what to expect from oil as December gets in full swing, here are the scheduled economic data releases/events in the coming week:

Sunday, 4 December  

• OIL: OPEC+ virtual meeting   

Monday, 5 December  

• CNH: China Caixin services PMI
• OIL: EU ban on Russian crude  
• EUR: S&P Global PMI, Eurozone retail sales, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• USD: US factory orders, durable goods, ISM services index

Tuesday, 6 December

• AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision   
• EUR: Germany factory orders, S&P Global PMI
• USD: US trade data

Wednesday, 7 December

• EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
• CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
• OIL: EIA crude oil inventory report
• USD: MBA mortgage applications

Thursday, 8 December

• JPY: Japan GDP
• EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• USD: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 9 December

• CNH: China Inflation, PPI, money supply
• USD: US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
• FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches

Oil prices nosedived in November as concerns that a rebound in Covid-19 cases in China would hit demand. Rising US stock pilled rubbed salt into the wound with Brent shedding almost 10% last month. Nevertheless, both Crude and Brent are still up roughly 10% year-to-date and could be supported by the key risk events and data releases over the next few days.

Over the weekend, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Co. including Russia are expected to leave production unchanged after the group changed its meeting to an online format. This move comes after the cartel agreed in early October to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November despite calls from the United States to pump more oil. The decision to leave production unchanged is based on the growing uncertainty over China’s demand outlook and the looming price cap on Russian crude exports. However, any unexpected decisions could result in explosive volatility in oil markets.

It's all about the upcoming sanctions on Russian oil which are expected to start on Monday 5th December. Back in June, the EU agreed to ban the purchase of Russian crude in an attempt to limit its earnings – ultimately impacting Moscow’s budget. According to Bloomberg, the EU is closing in a deal to cap Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel before the Monday deadline. Should this deal go through, it could have uncertain effects on the price of oil as concerns over lost supply through the price cap clash with fears over a gloomy demand outlook. Whatever the outcome on Sunday and Monday, it will most likely set the tone for oil as 2022 slowly comes to an end.

Looking at the technical picture, Brent remains under pressure on the daily charts with prices respecting a bearish channel. Should prices push back below $87 this could encourage a decline back toward $82.50 and $80.00. Alternatively, a strong breakout above $90.00 may open the doors towards $95.00 – a level above the 100-day SMA.

OPEC+ Russia WTI Brent cartel