2024 US Elections: The story so far

Contents

• The run-up to 2024 US Election: What's happened so far   

• Key Issues and Debates 

• What Happened Last Time: Trump vs. Biden 2020 

• Key Dates for the 2024 US Election 

• Why Traders Should Pay Attention 

• The Bottom Line 

 

The 2024 US election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political events of the decade. With significant implications for both domestic and global markets, the result of this election will resonate far beyond America's borders.  

As the race intensifies, traders worldwide are keeping an eye on developments, ready to adjust their strategies in response to the political climate.  

In this blog, we look at the election story so far, key issues at stake, and why this election is of particular interest to the global trading community. 

 

The run-up to 2024 US Election: What's happened so far 

The lead-up to the 2024 US election has been anything but uneventful. From legal troubles and concerns for President Biden’s health to an attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump, the political landscape is dynamic and unpredictable. 

Here’s a detailed look at the major events and developments in both the Democratic and Republican camps so far. 

 

Democratic Nominee – Kamala Harris  

After President Joe Biden dramatically dropped out of the race in July, Vice President Kamala Harris took his place as the Democratic nonimee.

Biden's age and concerns over his health sparked discussions within the party about potential alternatives, with Harris being the logical successor.

Harris brings a strong focus on addressing systemic inequalities, advocating for comprehensive criminal justice reform, and advancing social justice initiatives. Her commitment to infrastructure investments, climate action, and affordable healthcare underscores her drive to create a more sustainable and equitable society.

Additionally, Harris's unique background as the first female Vice President and a woman of color provides her with a distinct perspective that resonates with diverse communities across the nation.

 

Republican Nominee – Donald Trump 

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is still the frontrunner, despite being a polarising figure within the party, and facing multiple legal challenges, including a high-profile trial and several ongoing investigations by state authorities and the Justice Department alike.  

Trump has dominated the Republican primaries from the start, as most challengers ended their campaigns before a single vote was cast, and he quickly drove out the rest by winning all but two contests. 

 

Key Issues and Debates 

Several key issues are dominating the 2024 election debates: 

• Economic policy: With inflation concerns and economic recovery post-pandemic, both parties are focusing heavily on economic strategies. Democrats are emphasising social spending and infrastructure, while Republicans advocate for tax cuts and deregulation.

• Foreign policy: US-China relations, the war in Ukraine, and NATO alliances are central to the candidates' foreign policy platforms.

• Healthcare: Healthcare remains a critical issue, with debates over the future of Obamacare (Affordable Care Act) and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to divide voters.

• Climate change: Democrats are pushing for aggressive climate policies, including renewable energy investments and carbon regulations, while Republicans are focusing on energy independence and economic impacts of environmental regulations.

• Immigration: Immigration policy is a contentious topic, with Trump renewing his hardline stance or border security and Biden advocating for more comprehensive reform.

• Social issues: Issues like gun control, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and education are also at the forefront, reflecting the deep ideological divides within the American population. 

 

What Happened Last Time: Trump vs. Biden 2020  

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden emerged victorious against then-incumbent President Donald Trump. The election was marked by unprecedented voter turnout and significant controversy over mail-in ballots and election integrity.  

Trump's refusal to concede and the subsequent Capitol riot on 6 January 2021 were pivotal moments that have continued to influence American politics. 

 

2020 Election Highlights 

• Biden: 306 electoral votes, 81.2 million popular votes 
• Trump: 232 electoral votes, 74.2 million popular votes 
• Voter turnout: Record high at 66.3% 

 

How the markets reacted to the 2020 US Election  

 

Key Dates for the 2024 US Election 

• Republican National Convention: 15 – 18 July 2024 
• Democratic National Convention: 19 – 22 August 2024 
• Election Day: 5 November 2024 

 

Why Traders Should Pay Attention 

The lead-up and outcome of the US election has significant implications for global markets and traders.  

 

Market volatility 

Election periods typically bring heightened market volatility. Traders can expect significant swings in USD pairs, US stocks, and other financial instruments as the political landscape evolves. 

 

Economic policy impact 

The outcome will shape US economic policy, influencing everything from tax rates to regulatory environments. This, in turn, affects corporate earnings, investment strategies, and economic forecasts globally. 

 

Global economic policy 

The US plays a pivotal role in global economic policy. Changes in US leadership and policy directions can affect international trade agreements, geopolitical stability, and global economic trends. 

 

The bottom line 

As we move closer to the 2024 US election, the political landscape is set to have a profound influence on the markets.

For traders, staying informed about the latest developments, understanding the key issues, and expecting potential market reactions are essential strategies. Keeping up to date with news about the election can help traders not only take advantage of potential volatility and movements in the markets but manage their risk effectively too.

The stakes are high, and the ripple effects of this election will be felt worldwide. As the story continues to unfold, traders should remain vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of this political showdown at any time.