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08:53 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish below 1.4000
The USD/CAD pair remains weak near 1.3965 during the early European session on Friday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid persistent concerns over the global and US economies.
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
08:41 FX option expiries for Apr 11 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Apr 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0900 1.7b1.0950 1.3b1.1000 3.8b1.1665 540mGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2850 808mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.00 701m145.95 905m149.00 557mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6100 1.2b0.6155 761m0.6300 699mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3935 600m1.4045 2.4b1.4275 515m
08:03 NZD/USD holds positive ground above 0.5750 amid US-China trade war worries
The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.5770 after reaching the daily high of 0.5800 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness amid persistent economic concerns due to escalating tariff tensions.
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The Trump administration hit China with new tariffs of 145%. RBNZ retains considerable room to cut interest rates further.The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.5770 after reaching the daily high of 0.5800 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness amid persistent economic concerns due to escalating tariff tensions.On Wednesday, Trump reversed course as he announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China. Trump said early Thursday that China faced a tariff rate of 145%, clarifying that China also faced a 20% pre-existing levy over fentanyl. Concerns over Trump’s threat of tariffs that have stoked fears of a global recession and trade wars undermine the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair. On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its April meeting on Wednesday amid a steady decline in inflation and weakening domestic economic conditions. Analysts anticipate the RBNZ to deliver a deeper 50 bps cut, with markets factoring in the possibility of up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the near term. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
07:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position near $31.50 due to rising trade tensions
Silver (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the third straight session, trading around $31.30 during Friday’s Asian session. The precious metal is gaining traction as the US Dollar weakens, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dipping to around 100.20 at the time of writing.
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The precious metal is gaining traction as the US Dollar weakens, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dipping to around 100.20 at the time of writing.Investor demand for safe-haven assets like Silver is also being fueled by escalating US-China trade tensions. On Thursday, the US announced a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese imports—raising them to 145% with a new 125% levy on top of an existing 20% duty. This move overshadowed US President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on higher tariffs for other countries, intensifying concerns over potential economic fallout from the US-China standoff.Adding to Silver’s appeal, US inflation data came in softer than expected. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation falling to 2.4% year-over-year—below the expected 2.6% and down from 2.8% in February. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 2.8%, also below estimates. On a monthly basis, headline CPI declined 0.1%, while core CPI inched up 0.1%. This has led markets to price in potential Fed rate cuts starting in June, with the possibility of a full percentage point reduction by year-end.Meanwhile, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes suggested broad concern among policymakers over the challenge of balancing inflation risks with slowing economic growth. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warned that unexpected trade measures could spur job losses and inflation, potentially forcing the Fed into a defensive stance. Weekly jobless claims also ticked up slightly to 223,000. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
06:59 EUR/USD appreciates to near 1.1350 as the EU suspends tariffs on US imports
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading near 1.1350 during Friday’s Asian session. The Euro (EUR) strengthened after the European Union (EU) announced a 90-day pause on new 25% tariffs on the United States (US), aiming to create space for trade negotiations.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:32 US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Committed to exploding the economy
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took to the social media platform X to say that “the Golden Age is coming. We are committed to protecting our interest, engaging in global negotiations and exploding our economy.”
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US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took to the social media platform X to say that “the Golden Age is coming. We are committed to protecting our interest, engaging in global negotiations and exploding our economy.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index loses 1% on the day to trade near 100.00, as of writing, unable to get any inspiration from the above comments.
Related news Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD record rally appears unabated on trade and Fed jitters US President Donald Trump warns tariffs, sanctions on Mexico over water treaty - Reuters US Dollar losses further ground as tensions with China rise
Related news Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD record rally appears unabated on trade and Fed jitters US President Donald Trump warns tariffs, sanctions on Mexico over water treaty - Reuters US Dollar losses further ground as tensions with China rise
06:26 GBP/USD rises to near 1.3050 as US Dollar remains tepid ahead of PPI data
GBP/USD is on track for its fourth consecutive daily gain, trading near 1.3030 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar loses ground amid lingering concerns over both the global and US economies.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:15 USD/INR weakens amid escalating trade war tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Friday. US President Donald Trump's move to temporarily lower tariffs on many countries provides some support to the local currency.
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Softer US Dollar and falling oil prices underpin the INR. The US March PPI and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will be the highlights later on Friday. The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Friday. US President Donald Trump's move to temporarily lower tariffs on many countries provides some support to the local currency. Additionally, a decline in crude oil prices contributes to the INR’s upside as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the Indian currency value.However, reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets could strengthen the US Dollar (USD). Investors anticipate the US central bank will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably reduce its policy rate by a full percentage point by the end of the year.India’s Industrial Output and Manufacturing Output data are due later on Friday. On the US docket, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be published. Also, the Fed’s Alberto Musalem and John Williams are set to speak. Indian Rupee rebounds amid a weaker US DollarThe Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to cut the policy Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.00% at its April meeting on Wednesday.US President Donald Trump let stand a 10% blanket levy on all imports announced last week and set a 90-day pause on additional US tariffs during which the White House will negotiate the higher tariffs. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation declined to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.8% in February, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 2.6%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.8% YoY in March versus 3.1% prior and came in below the estimation of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined 0.1%, while the core CPI rose 0.1%.Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Thursday that large trade tariffs now being pursued by the Trump administration will almost certainly drive inflation higher and depress growth in the near term. Collins sees steady monetary policy amid uncertainty. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted high levels of uncertainty amid very aggressive trade tariffs and argued for a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy. Goolsbee added that if the economy gets back on track, rate cuts would still be possible. USD/INR maintains a bullish bias, consolidation is likely in the near termThe Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The uptrend of the USD/INR pair remains intact, with the price being above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term. The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at 86.61, the high of April 10. Extended gains could see a rally to the 87.00 psychological level. A decisive break above the mentioned level could pave the way to 87.53, the high of February 28.In the bearish event, the key support level for the pair is located in the 86.00-85.90 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and round figure. The next contention level to watch is 85.48, the low of March 24, followed by 85.00. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:33 WTI falls below $59.50 due to escalating US-China tensions, OPEC+ supply boost
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price fell for a second straight session, trading around $59.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday. The decline comes amid rising US-China trade tensions, which are clouding the demand outlook.
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The decline comes amid rising US-China trade tensions, which are clouding the demand outlook.On Thursday, the US announced that tariffs on Chinese imports had surged to 145%, with a new 125% levy added on top of an existing 20% duty. This move overshadowed US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariff hikes for most other countries and heightened concerns about fuel demand from China, the world's largest Oil importer.A prolonged US-China trade dispute threatens to dampen global trade, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth—developments that would also curb Oil consumption in both nations, which are the world’s top energy consumers.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its global economic growth and Oil demand forecasts, warning that tariffs could significantly impact Oil prices. The agency now expects global Oil demand to grow by just 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from its previous forecast of 1.2 million bpd, reaching about 103.6 million bpd. For 2026, demand growth is now estimated at 1 million bpd, also below prior expectations.The EIA also revised down its oil price outlook for this year and next, citing increased uncertainty from weaker global growth and a potential rise in supply. Further weighing on prices, the OPEC+ alliance, including Russia, plans to raise output by 411,000 bpd in May, fueling concerns of a market surplus.Meanwhile, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iranian Oil networks, including a China-based storage facility, just days ahead of planned US-Iran talks. At the same time, the Keystone pipeline remains shut following a spill in North Dakota, with no timeline for reopening—posing additional supply risks. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:32 PBOC: Discussed impact of US tariffs in the ASEAN meeting
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) released a statement on Friday, citing that China's deputy central bank governor attended the ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea finance and central bank deputies meeting on April 8 and 9.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) released a statement on Friday, citing that China's deputy central bank governor attended the ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea finance and central bank deputies meeting on April 8 and 9.Key takeawaysMeeting discussed impact of US tariffs on global and regional macroeconomic situation.Meeting held to exchange views on economic situation and regional financial cooperation.Will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support the smooth operation of financial markets, and consolidate the continued recovery of the economy.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index holds its recovery above 100.00 following these headlines, still down 0.74% on a daily basis. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
04:48 USD/JPY tumbles to near 143.50 amid tariff worries
The USD/JPY pair extends its downside to around 143.55 during the Asian trading hours on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD).
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An escalating trade war and uncertainty boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the Japanese Yen. The hawkish stance of the BoJ contributes to the JPY’s upside. The USD/JPY pair extends its downside to around 143.55 during the Asian trading hours on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy and the concerns over the global economic slowdown encourage investors to safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY). US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would temporarily lower duties on dozens of countries but ramped up the tariff on China to 125% from 104%. The looming threat of both global and US recession, driven by aggressive trade policies and uncertainty over future measures, drags the Greenback lower. Traders anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably lower its policy rate by a full percentage point by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, derivatives markets now imply a 44% possibility that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on May 6-7, up from 14% a week ago.Meanwhile, the hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) marks a big divergence in comparison to the prospects for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, provides some support to the JPY and acts as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Friday that foreign exchange rates should be set by markets, adding that excess FX volatility negatively impacts the Japanese economy. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:41 Australian Dollar extends gains despite increased risk sentiment
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the third successive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. However, the upside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the White House confirmed that the cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar may face headwinds as White House confirmed that US tariffs on Chinese goods have climbed to 145%.The AUD received a boost following reports that Australia is set to restart trade negotiations with the European Union.The US Dollar remains under pressure, weighed down by ongoing concerns about global and domestic economic outlooks.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the third successive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. However, the upside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the White House confirmed that the cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%. The announcement heightened tensions in the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, raising concerns for Australia given its strong trade ties with China.The AUD found support on Thursday from reports that Australia is preparing to resume trade negotiations with the European Union (EU). Moreover, The Wall Street Journal reported that China also held talks with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic, expressing interest in strengthening trade, investment, and industrial cooperation with the bloc.China also raised tariffs on 84% of American imports and added six US firms—including defense and aerospace companies like Shield AI and Sierra Nevada—to its trade blacklist. It also introduced export controls on several American companies, such as American Photonics and BRINC Drones.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles due to persistent economic concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower around 100.30 at the time of writing. The DXY continues to slide amid persistent concerns surrounding both the global and US economic outlooks. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming release of the US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, both due later on Friday.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.In a move aimed at easing trade tensions, President Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners, lowering rates to 10% to create space for continued negotiations. “The 90-day pause is an encouraging sign that negotiations with most countries have been productive,” said Mark Hackett of Nationwide. “It also injects some much-needed stability into a market rattled by uncertainty.”Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting suggested that policymakers are nearly unanimous in recognizing the dual challenge of rising inflation and slowing growth, cautioning that the Federal Reserve faces “difficult tradeoffs” in the months ahead.China’s CPI declined 0.1% year-over-year in March, following a 0.7% drop in February and falling short of expectations for a 0.1% increase. Monthly, CPI dropped 0.4%, worse than the previous month’s 0.2% decline and the forecasted figure. China’s PPI also contracted more sharply than expected, falling 2.5% annually in March versus a 2.2% drop in February and a projected 2.3% decline. In Australia, subdued business and consumer sentiment has strengthened expectations of a dovish tilt from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets are now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, beginning in May, with additional reductions likely in July and August.Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar rises toward 0.6250 near 50-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6230 on Friday, with daily chart indicators showing a slight bullish tilt as the pair trades above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just below the 50 mark, indicating that bearish pressure hasn’t fully faded.Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA, currently at 0.6176. A decisive break below this level could undermine short-term bullish momentum and open the door for a move toward the 0.5914 zone—its lowest point since March 2020—followed by the key psychological support at 0.5900.To the upside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day EMA, around 0.6262. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for a stronger recovery, potentially pushing the AUD/USD pair toward the four-month high of 0.6408.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.92% -0.31% -0.56% -0.29% -0.14% -0.63% -0.43% EUR 0.92% 0.59% 0.28% 0.60% 0.77% 0.26% 0.47% GBP 0.31% -0.59% -0.26% 0.02% 0.18% -0.35% -0.12% JPY 0.56% -0.28% 0.26% 0.27% 0.46% 0.00% 0.23% CAD 0.29% -0.60% -0.02% -0.27% 0.14% -0.34% -0.13% AUD 0.14% -0.77% -0.18% -0.46% -0.14% -0.50% -0.29% NZD 0.63% -0.26% 0.35% -0.01% 0.34% 0.50% 0.22% CHF 0.43% -0.47% 0.12% -0.23% 0.13% 0.29% -0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:41 USD/CAD extends downside below 1.3950 on weaker US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair extends the decline to around 1.3920 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Loonie amid persistent concerns over the global and US economies.
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The economic uncertainty and rising bets of Fed rate cuts drag the US Dollar lower. The US CPI inflation eased to 2.4% in March, softer than expected. The USD/CAD pair extends the decline to around 1.3920 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Loonie amid persistent concerns over the global and US economies. Traders brace for the US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is due later on Friday. US President Donald Trump let stand a 10% blanket levy on all imports announced last week and set a 90-day pause on additional US tariffs during which the White House will negotiate the higher tariffs. This encouraged investors to reallocate capital back into Canada, supporting the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the USD. Additionally, the Greenback loses traction as US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation declined to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.8% in February, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 2.6%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.8% YoY in March versus 3.1% prior and came in below the estimation of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined 0.1%, while the core CPI rose 0.1%.Following the data, traders anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably reduce its policy rate by a full percentage point by the end of the year.Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie and help limit the pair’s losses. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:58 Japan’s Kato: Excess FX volatility negatively impacts the economy
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Friday that foreign exchange rates should be set by markets, adding that excess FX volatility negatively impacts the Japanese economy.
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Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Friday that foreign exchange rates should be set by markets, adding that excess FX volatility negatively impacts the Japanese economy.Key quotesForex rates should be set by markets.
Excess FX volatility negatively impacts the economy.
Have agreed with the US to continue closely communicating on Forex at a minister level.
Will continue to exchange views with G7 countries.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.48% lower on the day to trade at 143.75. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Excess FX volatility negatively impacts the economy.
Have agreed with the US to continue closely communicating on Forex at a minister level.
Will continue to exchange views with G7 countries.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.48% lower on the day to trade at 143.75. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:51 EC President von der Leyen: EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said early Friday that the European Union (EU) is ready to use its most powerful trade measures and may impose levies on US digital companies if negotiations with US President Donald Trump fail to end his tariff war against Europe, per Financial Tim
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said early Friday that the European Union (EU) is ready to use its most powerful trade measures and may impose levies on US digital companies if negotiations with US President Donald Trump fail to end his tariff war against Europe, per Financial Times. Key quotesWe are developing retaliatory measures.
There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory.
An example is you could put a levy on the advertising revenues of digital services.
It’s a turning point with the United States without any question
We will never go back anymore to the status quo.
There are no winners in this, only losers.
Today we see the cost of chaos . . . the costs of the uncertainty that we are experiencing today will be heavy.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.24% higher on the day to trade at 1.1230. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory.
An example is you could put a levy on the advertising revenues of digital services.
It’s a turning point with the United States without any question
We will never go back anymore to the status quo.
There are no winners in this, only losers.
Today we see the cost of chaos . . . the costs of the uncertainty that we are experiencing today will be heavy.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.24% higher on the day to trade at 1.1230. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:51 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 0.8% (March) vs previous 1.2%
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 0.8% (March) vs previous 1.2%
02:43 EUR/USD surges higher as tariff walk-back eases tensions further
EUR/USD roared into its highest bids in nearly two years on Thursday, breaching and closing above the 1.1200 handle for the first time in 21 months.
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Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:39 US President Donald Trump warns tariffs, sanctions on Mexico over water treaty - Reuters
Reuters reported early Friday that US President Donald Trump is likely to retaliate on trade if Mexico doesn't deliver water to the United States.
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Reuters reported early Friday that US President Donald Trump is likely to retaliate on trade if Mexico doesn't deliver water to the United States. Mexican officials are preparing to increase the amount of water they send to the US due to concerns that Trump may bring an 81-year-old water treaty dispute into trade negotiations. Under a 1944 treaty, Mexico must deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the US from the Rio Grande every five years. However, Mexico has sent less than 30% of the required water, according to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission. Mexico claimed that a historic drought caused by climate change makes it difficult to meet water treaty obligations. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair is trading 0.23% higher on the day to trade at 20.60. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
02:10 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to record high near $3,200 on US-China tariff war
The Gold price (XAU/USD) surges to near an all-time high around $3,190 during the early Asian session on Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China provide some support to the precious metal, a traditional safe haven asset.
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An escalation of the US-China trade underpins the Gold price. Pared-back Fed rate cut bets might help limit the XAU/USD’s losses. The Gold price (XAU/USD) surges to near an all-time high around $3,190 during the early Asian session on Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China provide some support to the precious metal, a traditional safe haven asset. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday revealed that US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, but inflation risks are tilted to the upside after US President Donald Trump doubled down on China tariffs. The US CPI inflation eased to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.8% in February. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.6%.The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.8% YoY in March, compared to a rise of 3.1% seen in February and came in below the consensus of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined 0.1%, while the core CPI rose 0.1%. Trump said on Wednesday he would temporarily lower duties on dozens of countries. However, Trump also raised tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately, after Beijing announced plans to retaliate with 84% duties. The worries over the global economy and the renewed trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies keep investors in safe-haven assets, supporting the Gold price. On the other hand, pared-back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets that can strengthen the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Traders are now expecting the Fed will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably reduce its policy rate by a full percentage point by the end of the year. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:54 GBP/USD lurches higher as risk aversion abates
GBP/USD took another bullish step higher on Thursday, bolstered by a broad-base weakening in Greenback demand after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled even faster than expected.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD took a leg higher on Thursday but still remains capped below 1.3000.Tariff tensions have eased for the time being, but market conditions still aren’t great.A reversal in Greenback flows across the board has bolstered the broader market.GBP/USD took another bullish step higher on Thursday, bolstered by a broad-base weakening in Greenback demand after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled even faster than expected. Coupled with a general easing in risk-off flows following the Trump administration’s constant carousel of on-again, off-again tariffs, Greenback strength across the board has been receding, giving Cable an opportunity to rebound from recent losses.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in well below expectations in March. Core CPI eased to 2.8% YoY, reaching a four-year low after stubbornly holding above 3.0% for nearly eight months. Headline CPI inflation also eased to 2.4% YoY, and investment markets will be devastated if tariffs undo years’ worth of work by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to bring inflation to heel.This week will wrap up with University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey results on Friday. The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to contract yet again in April as consumers continue to buckle under the weight of the Trump administration’s tariff and trade “strategy”, and is expected to sink to a nearly three-year low of 54.5. Consumer Inflation Expectations are also on the cards for Friday. UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations last clocked in at 5% and 4.1%, respectively.GBP/USD price forecastA third straight day of gains has pushed Cable into the high side, though the pair remains trapped just below the key 1.3000 price handle. The Pound Sterling rallied 1.3% against the Greenback, and GBP/USD is up nearly 2.2% from the last swing low into the 1.2700 handle.Price action caught a technical bounce off of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but the next immediate challenge for bulls will be an inflection point at the 1.3100 region.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI dipped from previous 53.9 to 53.2 in March
New Zealand Business NZ PMI dipped from previous 53.9 to 53.2 in March
00:54 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish momentum continues as pair trades near 90.00 zone ahead of Asia
The AUD/JPY pair extended its downside during Thursday’s session, retreating toward the 90.00 area as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the pair. Price action is unfolding within a range defined by 88.914 and 91.110, with sellers maintaining control as the session heads into Asia.
AUD/JPY trades near the 90.00 zone after slipping ahead of the Asian sessionBearish momentum reinforced by a sell signal from MACD and downward pressure from key moving averagesSupport rests in the 88.00s, while resistance emerges around the 91.00 area
The AUD/JPY pair extended its downside during Thursday’s session, retreating toward the 90.00 area as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the pair. Price action is unfolding within a range defined by 88.914 and 91.110, with sellers maintaining control as the session heads into Asia.Technical indicators largely confirm the prevailing downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 40.228, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issues a clear sell signal. Complementing this outlook, the 10-period Momentum at -5.120 also flashes a bearish bias, although the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral at -4.170.From a moving averages standpoint, the 20-day SMA at 92.968, the 100-day SMA at 95.969, and the 200-day SMA at 97.994 all point downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish structure. Shorter-term indicators also follow suit, with the 10-day EMA at 90.990 and 10-day SMA at 91.380 both signaling sell.Daily chart
The AUD/JPY pair extended its downside during Thursday’s session, retreating toward the 90.00 area as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the pair. Price action is unfolding within a range defined by 88.914 and 91.110, with sellers maintaining control as the session heads into Asia.Technical indicators largely confirm the prevailing downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 40.228, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issues a clear sell signal. Complementing this outlook, the 10-period Momentum at -5.120 also flashes a bearish bias, although the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral at -4.170.From a moving averages standpoint, the 20-day SMA at 92.968, the 100-day SMA at 95.969, and the 200-day SMA at 97.994 all point downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish structure. Shorter-term indicators also follow suit, with the 10-day EMA at 90.990 and 10-day SMA at 91.380 both signaling sell.Daily chart
00:13 Canadian Dollar catches bullish ride on tariff concerns
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rose to four-year highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, bolstered by a general weakening in Greenback demand.
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
00:03 Fed's Collins: Tariffs could push core inflation well above 3% this year
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins joined the ever-growing stream of Fed policymakers standing up and flashing loud warning signs that ongoing uncertainty at the hand of the Trump administration's constantly waffling tariff policy stance will continue to weigh on the Fed's
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins joined the ever-growing stream of Fed policymakers standing up and flashing loud warning signs that ongoing uncertainty at the hand of the Trump administration's constantly waffling tariff policy stance will continue to weigh on the Fed's ability to adjust policy rates.Key highlightsRenewed price pressures could delay rate cuts.
The Fed may yet find space to lower rates this year.
Tariffs could push core inflation well above 3% this year.
Tariffs will drive up inflation, and slow growth levels.
Fed policy choices difficult, beset by trade-offs.
We must keep inflation expectations stable.
Monetary policy needs to be nimble in an uncertain environment.
I expect inflation pressures to wane over the longer run.
High uncertainty is clouding the economic outlook.
Rate policy well positioned, holding steady for now seems best.
Tighter financial conditions may restrain activity.
Fed policy is still positioned to lower inflation pressures.
I see upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
Financial markets performing well, continue to be liquid.
The Fed may yet find space to lower rates this year.
Tariffs could push core inflation well above 3% this year.
Tariffs will drive up inflation, and slow growth levels.
Fed policy choices difficult, beset by trade-offs.
We must keep inflation expectations stable.
Monetary policy needs to be nimble in an uncertain environment.
I expect inflation pressures to wane over the longer run.
High uncertainty is clouding the economic outlook.
Rate policy well positioned, holding steady for now seems best.
Tighter financial conditions may restrain activity.
Fed policy is still positioned to lower inflation pressures.
I see upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
Financial markets performing well, continue to be liquid.
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