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21:16 Ontario PM Ford agrees to suspend energy levies on US after Lutnick agrees to trade talks
Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford agreed to suspend his announced export tariffs on Ontario-produced electricity bound for the US after US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick agreed to emergency trade talks with Canada.

21:03 US White House Press Secretary Leavitt: We're in a period of economic transition
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed the press from the White House on Tuesday, following up on President Donald Trump's declarations of setting additional tariffs on Canada, to begin as soon as Wednesday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed the press from the White House on Tuesday, following up on President Donald Trump's declarations of setting additional tariffs on Canada, to begin as soon as Wednesday. Press Secretary Leavitt's commentary covered a range of Trump's planned activities and statements, but fell short of declaring anything concrete. Press Sec Leavitt wrapped up with an attempted pivot to discussing Ukraine, where firm resolutions remain equally elusive, ending discussions on a US-inspired trade war with Canada by noting that comments from Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford hurt the Trump administration's feelings. Key highlights Trump will welcome NATO Secretary General on Thursday. Stock market numbers are a snapshot of a moment in time. We're in a period of economic transition. Trump will be viewing a Tesla. Trump has not yet spoken to Canada Designate PM Carney. Doug Ford's comments were egregious and insulting. Trump is determined to ensure the US depends on American electricity. There are continued conversations between the US and Canada on tariffs. Canada would be wise to not shut off electricity for Americans. News of Rubio and Waltz meeting with Ukrainians has been positive. Canada has always been an ally. Perhaps they are becoming a competitor now.

21:01 Forex Today: US inflation data gathers all the attention
There was no respite for the downside pressure in the Greenback on Tuesday, with the currency deflating to levels lasty seen in early October amid further effervescence around tariff and US recession concerns.

There was no respite for the downside pressure in the Greenback on Tuesday, with the currency deflating to levels lasty seen in early October amid further effervescence around tariff and US recession concerns.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 12: The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to new multi-month lows near 103.20 amid shrinking yields and steady speculation over the likelihood of a US slowdown. The release of the Inflation Rate will take centre stage, seconded by MBA Mortgage Applications and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. EUR/USD extended further its march north, reaching new four-month peaks well past the 1.0900 barrier. The ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel and Lane are due to speak amid an otherwise empty domestic calendar. GBP/USD resumed its uptrend and flirted with new highs near 1.2970 amid the generalised sell-off in the Greenback. Next on tap on the UK docket will be the RICS House Price Balance on March 13. USD/JPY hit fresh lows in the mid-146.00s before staging an acceptable rebound amid extra weakness in the US Dollar and declining US and Japanese yields. Japan’s Producer Prices will be at the centre of the debate seconded by the BSI Large Manufacturing index. AUD/USD managed to capitalise on the US Dollar’s decline, reclaiming the 0.6300 hurdle and beyond and reversing three straight daily retracements. Next on tap in Oz will be the final prints of Building Permits and Private House Approvals, seconded by the speech by the RBA’s Jones. WTI prices regained some ground and broke above the $67.00 mark per barrel following the increasing selling pressure in the Greenback. Concerns over the US economy and the weakness surrounding the Greenback lent support to Gold prices, sending them back above the $2,920 region per troy ounce. Silver prices rallied to three-week highs near the $33.00 mark per ounce, reversing three daily pullbacks in a row.

20:37 Canadian Dollar loses ground for a third straight day as trade war heats up
The Canadian Dollar roiled on Tuesday, falling roughly six-tenths of one percent against the Greenback at its lowest as markets weigh the latest evolution in US President Donald Trump’s self-styled trade war against Canada.

20:17 US Dollar extends losses amid fresh trade tensions
The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward spiral on Tuesday, with DXY hovering near 103.40 as trade tensions escalate.

20:08 Mexican Peso holds firm despite Trump’s new tariffs on Canada
The Mexican Peso holds firm against the US Dollar and fails to gain traction even though the latter refreshes year-to-date (YTD) lows against a basket of six currencies, revealed the US Dollar Index (DXY).

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The escalation of the trade war between the United States (US) and Canada keeps the market risk-averse with the Peso failing to rally. The USD/MXN trades at 20.33, down 0.08%. Earlier, US President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Canada by imposing additional 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports as retaliation for applying duties on electricity imported from Ontario to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The Mexican Peso was unfazed by the news, yet it remains trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.34. Mexico’s economic docket remained empty with traders bracing for the release of quarterly and annually Aggregate Demand figures for Q4 2024. In the US, job vacancies rose, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), amid uncertainty on tariffs and aggressive government spending cuts. Even though the data was supportive of the US Dollar, the DXY prolonged its fall to year-to-date (YTD) lows of 103.30, down 0.55%. This week, US inflation figures will shed some light on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do regarding monetary policy. As of writing, money market futures traders are pricing in 83.5 basis points of easing toward the year’s end. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso hovers around 20.30 Despite the recent uptick on headline and core prices, Mexico’s Consumer Confidence data and the ongoing disinflation process in Mexico suggest Banco de Mexico (Banxico) could cut interest rates at the upcoming March 27 meeting. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report revealed that vacancies increased in January from 7.508 million to 7.740 million, exceeding forecasts of 7.63 million. A Reuters poll showed that 70 out of 74 economists say the risk of recession has risen in the US, Canada and Mexico. In the boiler room, trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain front and center. If the countries could agree, it would pave the way for a recovery of the Mexican currency. Otherwise, further USD/MXN upside is seen as US tariffs could trigger a recession in Mexico. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso weakens as USD/MXN climbs past 20.30 The USD/MXN consolidated within the 20.20–20.50 range during the last three days with neither buyers nor sellers able to break the range. Momentum hints that further downside is seen in the near term, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the USD/MXN’s first support would be 20.20, followed by the 20.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 200-day SMA at 19.59. Conversely, if USD/MXN hurdles toward 20.50, the next resistance would be the March 4 swing high at 20.99 and the YTD peak of 21.28. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:05 United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.908% vs previous 4.3%
United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.908% vs previous 4.3%

18:42 Dow Jones Industrial Average drops further as trade war heats up
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed further weight on Tuesday, dropping nearly 700 points on the day, or 1.76% after United States (US) President Donald Trump vowed to heat up his own trade war with Canada.

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President Trump took to his Truth Social account early Tuesday, informing his social media followers that he’s instructed his Secretary of Commerce to impose an additional 25% tariff on all Canadian steel and aluminum exports to the US, bringing the new total to 50% on all Canadian metals. The new tariffs are, in theory, slated to go into effect on Wednesday morning. Donald Trump remains deeply unsatisfied with the conditions of US dairy trade with Canada as outlined in his own bespoke USMCA trade agreement that came out of NAFTA renegotiations that Trump demanded during his first term as US President. Under USMCA, Canada allows a certain amount of US dairy across its borders entirely tariff-free, then imposes steep trade fees to clamp down on dairy imports to prevent US economic dumping. President Trump appears to be entirely unsatisfied with the terms of his own bespoke trade agreement, declaring via social media that his steep Canadian metals tariffs won’t be rescinded until Canada arbitrarily chooses to violate the terms set out for it under the USMCA and drops all cap-trade tariffs on US dairy products entirely. US JOLTS Job Openings data came in slightly stronger than expected, helping to provide some stability for otherwise rattled markets. Job postings increased to 7.74M in January, climbing above the expected print of 7.63M and rising from December’s 7.508M, which was revised slightly lower from 7.6M. Dow Jones news Most of the securities listed on the Dow Jones are printing in the red on Tuesday as markets grapple with the latest iteration of Trump’s self-styled trade war with some of the US’s closest trading partners. Salesforce (CRM) rebounded 1.9% to $278 per share, and Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.7% to $109 per share as tech darlings pare recent losses amid the cooling AI tech rally. On the low side, Verizon (VZ) tumbled around 7% to $43 per share, falling after guidance from a Verizon Communications wireless executive warned that new customer additions would likely come in “soft” during the current quarter. Disney (DIS) fell 4.4% to $98.50 per share, and Apple (AAPL) also declined 3.5% to fall below $220 per share as trade war fears ramp up. Dow Jones price forecast Now that the seal is finally broken and the Dow Jones has pierced the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 key price handle for the first time in over two years, bearish momentum is continuing to drag price action even lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading at its lowest prices in nearly 26-weeks as the majority equity index tips over into bullish correction territory. The Dow Jones is down 8.4% from record highs set last November just north of 45,000 as the current bear run heats up. Still, bullish pressure is beginning to cook as technical oscillators pin even deeper into oversold territory, flashing warnings of a topside correction. A supply zone between the 41,000 and 40,000 major price handles could provide a convenient landing zone for bears before the Dow recovers its footing for a fresh push higher. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

17:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls reclaim momentum as pair nears November highs
The EUR/USD pair regained bullish traction on Tuesday after the European session, advancing past the 1.0900 zone and continuing its strong upward trend.

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0900 area after the European session, extending its recent rally.Following a brief pause on Monday, the pair surged by more than 0.70%, approaching its highest levels since November 2024.Technical indicators remain in overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion, while key resistance levels lie ahead.The EUR/USD pair regained bullish traction on Tuesday after the European session, advancing past the 1.0900 zone and continuing its strong upward trend. After stalling briefly on Monday, buyers re-entered the market, fueling a more than 0.70% rally. The pair now hovers near its highest levels since November 2024, with market momentum firmly favoring the bulls. From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed further into overbought territory, rising sharply to indicate strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print rising green bars, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. However, these overbought conditions suggest a possible correction could be on the horizon if buyers start to take profits. Looking at key levels, immediate resistance is now seen near the 1.0930 zone, a break of which could open the door toward the 1.0970-1.1000 range. On the downside, support is aligned near the 1.0850 region, followed by the 1.0800 psychological level, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned. EUR/USD daily chart

17:32 GBP/USD climbs above 1.2920 as trade war fears weaken USD
The Pound Sterling extended its gains versus the US Dollar on Tuesday as the latter continued to plunge, due controversial trade policies by US President Donald Trump, adding an additional 25% in aluminum and steel imports from Canada, as the latter apply duties on electricity imported to New York, Michigan and Minnesota.

17:03 Trump: Places additional 25% tariffs on Canada
The US President Donald Trump revealed on this Truth Social account that he is imposing an additional 25% tariff, to 50% on aluminum and steel imports from Canada to the US.

16:50 US JOLTS Job openings increased to 7.74 million in January
According to Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job openings totaled 7.74 million at the end of January.

16:21 EUR/USD to push forward towards 1.12 – Rabobank
Last week we revised up our EUR/USD forecasts significantly mostly on the back of the will of the German coalition-in-waiting to change the country’s debt brake and unleash a substantial amount of fiscal spending, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

Last week we revised up our EUR/USD forecasts significantly mostly on the back of the will of the German coalition-in-waiting to change the country’s debt brake and unleash a substantial amount of fiscal spending, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. Investors switch their focus to US growth risks "That said, we have been of the view that following the recent shift higher in EUR/USD there would be scope for pullbacks, or at least a period of consolidation. So far, there are no convincing signs of pullbacks which is suggestive of the strength of the buying momentum behind the EUR’s uptrend. Tomorrow’s release of the US CPI inflation data could be the next real test for EUR/USD bulls." "The market consensus suggests that the US inflation trend will ease slightly, though the Bloomberg economists’ survey suggests that there is some variation in this view. Even data in line with the median hints that the Fed is likely to be wary about cutting rates as much as the market is currently expecting." "That said, investors have clearly switched their focus to US growth risks. If the US inflation data are robust and the market chooses to overlook the implications for Fed policy, the momentum driving EUR/USD higher could find fresh incentive near-term. On balance we retain our new target of EUR/USD1.12."

16:18 USD/JPY surges to near 148.00 as Trump tariffs weigh on Japan’s economic outlook
The USD/JPY pair recovers strongly to near 148.00 in North American trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh five-month low of 146.50 earlier in the day.

16:16 Japan: BoJ to press pause on hikes – Standard Chartered
BoJ likely to keep rates unchanged in March to support financial stability and avoid premature tightening.

BoJ likely to keep rates unchanged in March to support financial stability and avoid premature tightening. Revised Q4 GDP indicates risks to a sustained recovery from weak domestic demand. Long-end JGBs have sold off sharply, likely on sentiment, higher Bund yields and end-FY seasonality. 10Y yield differentials have broken below the lows of September, signalling more USD/JPY downside, Standard Chartered's economists Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia note. Taking a breather "We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep rates unchanged on 19 March, primarily to support financial stability and avoid any premature tightening, which could weaken domestic spending. The central bank is likely to gradually hike rates starting Q2-2025, which would help address inflationary risks without undermining growth, in our view. Q4 GDP grew an annualised 2.2%, driven by exports, but domestic demand remained weak." "In January, industrial production contracted (-1.1% m/m), PMI remained below 50, and real wages fell (-1.8% y/y), limiting consumption. Core inflation excluding food and energy (2.5% y/y) has exceeded the BoJ’s target since last July, fuelled by a weak JPY and high energy prices." "Past instances show that rate hikes by the BoJ have led to economic slowdowns, notably in the 1990s and in 2007. We, therefore, expect the BoJ to hold rates in March before cautiously tightening in Q2-2025. A sudden hike could also unwind JPY carry trades, disrupting global markets. The BoJ will also look to manage external pressure from the US while safeguarding domestic economic resilience. Clear communication with financial markets will be crucial to prevent volatility."

16:14 GBP firmer but lags EUR gains – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer on the session, with the EUR’s gains still proving the GBP with its essential dynamism, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer on the session, with the EUR’s gains still proving the GBP with its essential dynamism, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP lags EUR gains driving a jump in EUR/GBP "The pound has lagged the jump in the EUR, however, resulting in a jump in EURGBP back above 0.84 to ate January levels. UK data reports remain few and far between. The British Retail Consortium’s February survey of retail activity reflected softer than expected sales last month, with non-food sales falling 0.1%." "GBP is still effectively in consolidation mode, holding within the consolidation range that formed late last week and held yesterday. Cable gains need to push on through the consolidation range ceiling (1.2948) to progress towards 1.30/1.31. Support is 1.2860."

16:12 EUR trading turns a little choppy – Scotiabank
Spot trading is turning a little choppy on the day as the Euro (EUR) probes the 1.09 area but further EUR gains look likely as investors focus on the massive loosening in Eurozone fiscal policy and the jump in yields that resulted and contrast that with lower yields and growth concerns in the US that is chipping away at the 'US exceptionalism' narrative, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Spot trading is turning a little choppy on the day as the Euro (EUR) probes the 1.09 area but further EUR gains look likely as investors focus on the massive loosening in Eurozone fiscal policy and the jump in yields that resulted and contrast that with lower yields and growth concerns in the US that is chipping away at the 'US exceptionalism' narrative, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR advance extends through 1.09 "European stocks continue to outperform US equities by a significant margin despite continued volatility across markets. In YTD terms, the performance split is massive—around 15% percentage points. Solid stock gains amid a massive loosening in European (German) fiscal policy suggest the outperformance may extend and extend the EUR a bit more of a lift." "New highs for spot—the EUR is close to regaining the peak reached around the US election at 1.0935 back in November—keeps the technical trend positive and the focus on the topside for spot. The 1.0957 point is the key technical level to focus on in the near term—it’s the 76.4% Fib retracement of the 1.12/1.01 drop and the final, major resistance point ahead of return to 1.12. Support is 1.0725 and 1.0795/00."

16:08 The CAD is a little firmer on the session – Scotiabank
Tariff concerns are keeping the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the defensive and the US Dollar (USD) trading well above its estimated fair value, according to our measure, at least, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Tariff concerns are keeping the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the defensive and the US Dollar (USD) trading well above its estimated fair value, according to our measure, at least, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD gains modestly but trades well below estimated FV "USD/CAD’s estimated equilibrium has eased to around 1.41 (1.4103 today) over the past few days, reflecting some narrowing in US/Canada spreads. Markets are fully priced for a BoC rate cut this week but US 2Y yields have fallen some 45bps over the past month as US slowdown concerns have mounted around tariff uncertainties and DOGE-inspired austerity." "The USD still looks overvalued relative to the tariff regime that is in place at the moment and that should—at the very least—limit USD/CAD’s ability to push higher." "USD/CAD is marginally softer on the session after peaking near 1.4475 in late trade yesterday (now resistance). Spot formed a bearish 'shooting star' candle on the 6-hour chart around that move and the subsequent losses in the USD 'confirm' the bearish turn. USD weakness may extend to 1.4355/60 in the short run."

16:05 USD slide resumes after brief pause – Scotiabank
After a brief pause yesterday as stocks slumped, the US Dollar (USD) slide is resuming this morning as US growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

After a brief pause yesterday as stocks slumped, the US Dollar (USD) slide is resuming this morning as US growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. US bond yields have edged fractionally lower, in contrast to mostly higher yields in Europe, keeping the shift in spreads running against the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD may be on the cusp of another, sharp leg lower "The NFIB Small-Business Optimism index fell slightly more than expected in February, the just-released data shows, with respondents citing uncertainty around President Trump’s policies as a factor. The economic outlook component saw its sharpest fall in nearly three years while more companies raised prices, or plan to do so in the coming months." "On the session so far, the USD is down against all majors except the CHF and JPY (amid signs that global stocks have steadied). European FX is generally firmer, with the EUR carving out another solid advance on the day. It’s another quiet day data-wise. There is a 3Y auction (13ET for the results). Later, Japan releases PPI data and the BSI activity surveys which may provide some guidance for trends in the BoJ’s tankan survey due at the end of the month." "Technically, the DXY’s renewed weakness today suggests another potentially significant leg lower is about to unfold for the index. The DXY managed to steady near to the 104 level yesterday but the failure to regain that point in a sustained way keeps the focus on the downside and a further 2-4% drop in the next few weeks."

16:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings above expectations (7.63M) in January: Actual (7.74M)
United States JOLTS Job Openings above expectations (7.63M) in January: Actual (7.74M)

15:49 AUD/USD gains to near 0.6300 amid weakness in US Dollar
The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near the key level of 0.6300 in Tuesday’s North American session.

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The Aussie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) faces significant selling pressures amid fears that the tariff agenda of United States (US) President Donald Trump will lead to economic turbulence in the near term. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh four-month low near 103.50. Investors expect Trump tariffs to accelerate price pressures as their impact will be borne by US importers. Such a scenario will diminish the purchasing power of households who have been already battling to high inflationary pressures. To get cues about the current status of US inflation, investors will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published on Wednesday. The US inflation report is expected to show that the headline CPI decelerated to 2.9% from 3% in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have grown at a slower pace of 3.2% compared to 3.3% seen earlier. In the Aussie region, Westpac Consumer Confidence has increased significantly to 4% in March from 0.1% in February, the highest level in four months. Consumer Confidence has increased due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cut decision on February 18. The RBA reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% but guided a cautious outlook as the battle against inflation is not over yet. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

14:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 5.7% in March 7 from previous 6.6%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 5.7% in March 7 from previous 6.6%

14:24 US Dollar hits a fresh four-month low on German spending deal optimism
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is eking out lows not seen since October 2024. The index trades above 103.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The Greenback faces

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The US Dollar Index heads to the lower range of 103.00 and could break below it. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is eking out lows not seen since October 2024. The index trades above 103.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The Greenback faces headwinds on early European comments from the German green coalition, who said to be back on track for an agreement on a German defense spending bill. This pushes the US Dollar (USD) lower in favor of the Euro (EUR). On the economic data front, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for January will catch most of the attention. Traders are already spooked by recession fears, so a further decline in job openings could add to that conviction and see further downside momentum for the DXY. The US NFIB Business Optimism Index for February already released fell to 100.7, missing the 101 estimate and further down from the previous 102.8 reading. Daily digest market movers: Some dots to connectIn the early European trading session, a headline was published that the German Green coalition leader said to be hopeful on a defense spending deal this week, Bloomberg reported. This news represents a 180-degree shift from the headline that triggered some US Dollar (USD) strength on Monday, where the Green Party was unwilling to support any defense spending deal. At 14:00, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for January will be published. Expectations are for an uptick to 7.75 million openings against the 7.6 million from December. Equities are trying to brush off the doom and gloom from Monday. European equities are higher while US futures are in positive territory. The CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 95.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. However, the chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting increase to 47.8% and to 89.9% at June’s meeting. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.20%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on Tuesday last week.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not a one-day eventThe US Dollar Index (DXY) faces more selling pressure on Tuesday as recession fears are not going away. Traders remain concerned about tariffs’ impact and uncertainty on the US economy. Seeing the performance in US equities year-to-date, there is not much reason to be happy and no reason to support a stronger Dollar in the current narrative. There is an upside risk at 104.00 for a firm rejection. If bulls can avoid that, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.03. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps. On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off again, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:01 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0%)
Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0%)

14:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2.2%) in January
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2.2%) in January

13:31 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades lower amid caution ahead of BoC monetary policy meeting
The USD/CAD pair declines to near 1.4400 in European trading hours on Tuesday after correcting from the four-day high of 1.4470 posted on Monday.

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The Loonie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms across the board amid fears that the United States (US) could face economic turbulence in the near term due to President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies. Donald Trump’s tariff agenda is expected to increase input costs for US business owners, which they will pass on to consumers. Such a scenario would result in a decline in households’ purchasing power, diminishing the overall demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 103.35, the lowest level seen in four months. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been underperforming for over a month as Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on Canada but has provided a one-month exemption on goods that come under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). On Wednesday, investors will focus on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decision. Analysts at Citi expect the BoC to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% as Trump tariffs have intensified fears of a recession. USD/CAD holds above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4200, suggesting that the overall trend is bullish. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Going forward, an upside move above the March 10 high of 1.4470 will open the door toward the psychological resistance of 1.4500 and the January 30 high of 1.4595. On the contrary, a breakdown below the February 14 low of 1.4151 by the pair would expose it to the December 9 low of 1.4094, followed by the December 6 low of 1.4020. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

12:32 S&P 500: Next potential supports are at 5520 and 5400/5370 – Société Générale
S&P 500 recently broke below the lower limit of its range since December confirming a short-term downtrend.

S&P 500 recently broke below the lower limit of its range since December confirming a short-term downtrend. It has also crossed below the 200-DMA first time since November 2023, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Risk of a larger decline is present "If the index fails to overcome the lower band of previous range at 5770pts, there could be risk of a larger decline. Next potential supports are located at 5520pts, the 23.6% retracement of the whole uptrend since 2022 and September low of 5400/5370pts."

12:28 DXY: Next potential supports are at 102.90/102.60 and 101.90 – Société Générale
The Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a steady downtrend after facing strong resistance near 110.15 in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

The Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a steady downtrend after facing strong resistance near 110.15 in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Signals of a meaningful bounce are not yet visible "It has recently given up the 200-DMA (105) and is drifting towards November low of 103.30. Daily MACD is within deep negative territory denoting a stretched down move; however, signals of a meaningful bounce are not yet visible. The MA at 105 could be first layer of resistance in case a brief rebound materializes." "Below 103.30, next potential supports are at projections of 102.90/102.60 and 101.90."

12:25 AUD/USD: Consolidation above recent lows – BBH
AUD/USD is consolidating above recent lows, BBH FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is consolidating above recent lows, BBH FX analysts report. RBA to pay particular attention to labor market development "Australia’s February NAB business survey was mixed and does not move the dial on near-term RBA rate expectations. Business conditions rose 1 point to 4 while business confidence fell 6 points to -1 largely reversing January’s improvement." "The employment sub-index edged down 1 point to 4 but remains above long-term average of around 3.0 indicative of encouraging labor market conditions. The RBA signaled it will pay particular attention to labor market development to guide future policy decision." "Cash rate futures continue to imply almost 75bps of easing in the next twelve months with the next 25bps cut priced-in for May."

12:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD advances to near $32.50 as USD Index dives on US economic concerns
Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps sharply to near $32.50 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:18 USD/CNH: Downward pressure remains intact – UOB Group
USD is likely to trade in a 7.2400/7.2700 range vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

USD is likely to trade in a 7.2400/7.2700 range vs Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, downward pressure remains intact; should USD break below 7.2260, the next level to watch is 7.2000, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 7.2260, the next level to watch is 7.2000 24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for USD to trade sideways yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading sideways, USD rose to a high of 7.2697, closing at 7.2637 (+0.23%). Despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in momentum, and instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.2400/7.2700 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (06 Mar, spot at 7.2440), we indicated that “the downward pressure remains intact, and should USD break below and hold below 7.2260, the next level to watch is 7.2000.” Since then, USD has not been able to make further headway on the downside. That said, we will continue to hold the same view for now, provided that the ‘strong resistance’ at 7.2800 (no change in level) is not breached."

12:15 USD/JPY: Upside risk to wages supports the increasing trend in private demand – BBH
USD/JPY is drifting lower on broad USD weakness, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY is drifting lower on broad USD weakness, BBH FX analysts report. USD broad weakness pushed USD/JPY down "Japan’s final Q4 real GDP print was revised 0.1pts lower to 0.6% q/q on weaker private demand activity. Private demand fell -0.3% q/q in Q4 compared to a preliminary estimate of -0.1%. The sharper decline was driven by residential investment which dropped -0.2% q/q from an initial read of 0.1%." "Household consumption was flat from an initial estimate of 0.1% while non-residential investment rose 0.6% q/q from an initial estimate of 0.5%. Going forward, upside risk to wage growth supports the moderate increasing trend in private demand."

12:13 Gold pops up whilst Greenback deepens losses again
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is popping back above the $2,900 round level and even trades above $2,910 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold flirts with a 1% surge on Tuesday, paring back initial losses for this week.Headlines on German defense spending possible deal hit the US Dollar and support Gold. Traders are bracing for the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is popping back above the $2,900 round level and even trades above $2,910 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The move comes in a domino effect originated by the headline from the German Green coalition leaders, who said this morning to have given the green light to a deal on defense spending. That boosted confidence in the Euro (EUR) and triggered a new leg lower in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which opened the door for Bullion to surge. Meanwhile, traders are still cautious after a tariff war is spiraling out of control outside the United States (US). Canada has hit several Chinese imports, which met with counter-tariffs from China on Canadian goods such as canola Oil. The demands from US President Donald Trump are being met for now as Canada and Mexico can see further easing on their own tariffication if they also impose levies on Chinese goods. Daily digest market movers: Thai Baht flyingUS President Donald Trump’s signals that the economy could first suffer as he reshapes trade policy with tariffs stoked concerns about a potential recession. The precious metal, a traditional haven asset, can face selling pressure during sudden market selloffs, Bloomberg reports. Thailand’s currency, Thai Bhat (THB), has received a boost this year from a rally in Gold prices. Strategists warn though that the rally will not be enough to protect the country from tariff risks. The THB is up around 1.2% against the US Dollar this year, more than double the gain of a broad gauge of Asian currencies. A key reason is Thailand’s role as a Gold-trading hub in the region, which boosted confidence in the currency, Bloomberg reports. The CME Fedwatch Tool sees a 95.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. However, the chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting increase to 47.8%. Technical Analysis: Opening a windowFor once, it is not a headline on tariffs which is boosting the precious metal. This time, it is a domino effect where a weaker US Dollar opens the door for Gold to move higher. There are not yet aspirations for a new all-time high, but it is good to see the initial weekly loss erased and Gold returning to flat on the week. Gold is back above the $2,900 round level and, from an intraday technical perspective, it is back above the daily Pivot Point at $2,895. At the time of writing, Gold is knocking on the door of the R1 resistance near $2,910. Once through there, the intraday R2 resistance at $2,933 comes into focus on the upside, converging with last week’s highs. On the downside, the firm support stands at $2,880, which has held Gold’s price on Monday and Tuesday. In case that level breaks, look at the S1 support around $2,873. A small leg lower could target $2,857, the convergence of the S2 support and the March 3 low. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:01 USD/JPY: The next technical target is at 146.05 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could continue to decline vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05.

US Dollar (USD) could continue to decline vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05. In the longer run, USD is expected to continue to decline; the next technical target is at 146.05, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is expected to continue to decline 24-HOUR VIEW: "USD fell to a low of 146.94 last Friday and then rebounded to close largely unchanged at 148.03 (+0.05). In early Asian trade yesterday, when USD was at 147.70, we indicated that 'slowing downward momentum suggests any decline is unlikely to reach 147.00 again.' We underestimated the momentum as USD breached both the support levels and plunged to 146.61. Today, USD could continue to decline, but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05. To sustain the momentum, USD must remain below 147.60 (there is another resistance at 147.15)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday, USD fell and exceeded our technical target at 147.00. Yesterday, 10 Mar, when USD was at 147.70, we highlighted the following: 'While further USD weakness is not ruled out, the 147.00 level is acting as a kind of ‘low water mark’ now, meaning USD would need remain below this level before further declines are likely.' USD then plummeted to 146.61, closing at 147.26 (-0.52%). Although USD did not close below 147.00, the sharp drop below 147.00 has led to an increase in momentum. From here, we continue to expect USD to weaken, with the next technical target at 146.05. We will maintain our view as long as 148.25 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 148.80 yesterday) is not breached."

12:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 100.7, below expectations (101) in February
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 100.7, below expectations (101) in February

11:57 EUR/USD holds strong above 1.0900 – BBH
EUR/USD is trading firmer above 1.0900. Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD coalition are in high-stakes negotiations with the Green party to get the draft debt package passed in the current parliament, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is trading firmer above 1.0900. Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD coalition are in high-stakes negotiations with the Green party to get the draft debt package passed in the current parliament, BBH FX analysts report. Coalition needs the support of the Green party for a constitutional amendment "Germany's new parliament is set to convene by March 25. As part of a counterproposal, the Greens want to raise the threshold for defense spending exemptions from debt rules to 1.5% of GDP compared to 1.0% in the current plan. The CDU/CSU and SPD coalition need the support of the Green party to have the required two-thirds majority for a constitutional amendment." "As a background, the German government could invest as much as €1 trillion over the next decade. The fiscal package introduced last week includes €500 billion for infrastructure spending and a special measure to amend the constitution to exempt defense spending above 1% of GDP from the constitutional debt brake." "To appreciate the magnitude of this proposal, Germany invested €1.5 trillion over two decades following the reunification of East and West Germany."

11:50 Spain 9-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.269% from previous 2.248%
Spain 9-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.269% from previous 2.248%

11:50 Spain 3-Month Letras Auction dipped from previous 2.431% to 2.359%
Spain 3-Month Letras Auction dipped from previous 2.431% to 2.359%

11:48 EUR/USD refreshes four-month high as US Dollar slumps on US slowdown fears
EUR/USD posts a fresh four-month high above 1.0900 in European trading hours on Tuesday.

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The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers amid escalating fears of an economic slowdown in the United States (US). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes the four-month low near 103.30. Investors have dumped the US Dollar lately amid caution that the US economy could face economic shocks in the near term due to President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. Market participants had been expecting Trump's policies to be inflationary and pro-growth in the long term but now see severe economic turbulence in the near term, assuming that US employers will bear the pressure of higher tariffs. Business owners are unlikely to bear the wholesome tariff burden and will pass on the impact to end consumers. Such a scenario would result in a sharp decline in the overall demand as higher prices would diminish the purchasing power of consumers. Deepening fears of Trump tariff-led slowdown have also led to an increase in market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in the May policy meeting. The likelihood for the Fed to cut interest rates in May has increased to 51% from 37% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. For more cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is expected to decelerate but remain above the Fed’s target of 2%. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an economic forum at the University of Chicago Booth School that the Fed policy is not on a “preset course,” and we can maintain “policy restraint for longer if inflation progress stalls”. In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the US JOLTS Job Openings data for January, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. Economists expect US employers to have posted 7.75 million new jobs, marginally higher than the 7.6 million seen in December. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD strengthens as Euro outperforms The strength in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its peers. The Euro advances in hopes that Franziska Brantner-led-German Green Party would support clearing the defense spending deal, which will be discussed on Thursday. Hopes for Greens to agree to stretch Germany’s borrowing limit accelerated after positive commentary from Franziska Brantner in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday during European hours. “Of course we are ready to negotiate,” the Green party’s co-head Franziska Brantner said and added, “The situation is dire in Ukraine and we really need Europe to speed up its own defense spending.” Earlier, Greens vowed to oppose restricting ‘debt reforms’. On Monday, Branter said that their party will not likely allow the next Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) co-leader Lars Klingbeil to “abuse a difficult European security situation”. The shared currency had been performing strongly for almost two weeks as an increase in Germany’s spending capability by widening “the debt brake” would stimulate the economy, which had been fractured and contracted in the last two years. Additionally, German spending plans have also forced traders to reassess bets supporting the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates two times more by the summer. The ECB has already cut its borrowing rates twice this year, and traders had fully priced in two more interest rate cuts amid firm confidence that the Eurozone inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2% this year and fears of a slowdown due to potential US tariffs. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs above 1.0900 EUR/USD jumps above 1.0900 on Tuesday. The major currency pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 last week. The long-term outlook of the major currency pair is bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0640. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 75.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:46 NZD/USD: Unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to edge lower vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to edge lower vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660. In the longer run, there has been no further increase in upward momentum; a break of 0.5660 would mean that the recovery is not reaching 0.5775, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. No further increase in upward momentum 24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted a slight increase in downward momentum yesterday. However, we indicated that 'this is likely to lead to a lower range of 0.5685/0.5730 instead of a sustained decline.' Our view did not turn out as NZD traded between 0.5691 and 0.5742. There has been a slight increase in downward momentum. Today, NZD is likely to edge lower, but it is unlikely to break the strong support ’level at 0.5660 (there is another support level at 0.5680). On the upside, resistance levels are at 0.5715 and 0.5730." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (06 Mar, spot at 0.5720), we highlighted that the 'current price movements are likely part of a recovery phase that could reach 0.5775.' NZD subsequently rose to 0.5760 and then pulled back. Yesterday (10 Mar, spot at 0.5710), we indicated that 'There has been no further increase in momentum and should NZD break below 0.5660 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that 0.5775 is out of reach this time round. There is no change in our view."

11:32 ECB’s Rehn: Forecasts, indicators of core inflation suggest that inflation will align with 2% target
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that “forecasts and indicators of core inflation suggest that inflation will align with 2% target.” “US tariffs could cut global output by more than 0.5% this year and the next,” Rehn added.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that “forecasts and indicators of core inflation suggest that inflation will align with 2% target.” “US tariffs could cut global output by more than 0.5% this year and the next,” Rehn added.

11:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 SEK: Some dovish risks after hawkish repricing – ING
The Riksbank’s Executive Board testifies before parliament this morning, and that can bring about some market-moving headlines.

The Riksbank’s Executive Board testifies before parliament this morning, and that can bring about some market-moving headlines. Markets have heavily shifted on the hawkish side of the spectrum and now expect the Bank to be done with easing, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/SEK remains incidentally quite cheap in short term "A key driver of this shift was the set of hot inflation figures for February, but we suspect markets may be underestimating both the volatility of CPI data and the impact of US tariffs. The risks are skewed to the dovish side – and to the downside for SEK – ahead of today’s parliamentary testimony." "EUR/SEK remains incidentally quite cheap in short-term valuation terms and signs of instability in EU sentiment can trigger a rebound above 11.0 this week. We still favour a stabilisation in the 11.0-11.20 range in the next two quarters."

11:25 EUR/USD: US cyclical growth narrative becomes an increasingly key driver – Danske Bank
EUR/USD remains in the low-1.08-1.09 range in a relatively quiet start to the week, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

EUR/USD remains in the low-1.08-1.09 range in a relatively quiet start to the week, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report. Further upside risk in EUR/USD "Despite declining US yields amid US growth concerns, the broad USD remained well-supported during the US session on risk-off sentiment. In Germany, reports suggest the Greens may withhold support for the debt package in parliament, despite its alignment with their election platform. We still expect them to back it eventually." "While much of the EUR-optimism appears priced in, confirmation of the debt package or a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine could provide another boost. Today, focus will be on January JOLTS job openings, offering insight into the US labour market. In RtM USD this week, we analyse the potential implications of a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord." "While such an event could carry significant consequences for the USD, we see it as unlikely. We maintain a tactical bias toward further upside risk in EUR/USD, with the US cyclical growth narrative becoming an increasingly key driver."

11:13 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds position above 0.5700 near 50-day EMA support
The NZD/USD pair holds gains after recovering daily losses, trading around 0.5710 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

11:09 AUD/USD: Under mild downward pressure and can test 0.6250 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure and could test 0.6250 vs US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure and could test 0.6250 vs US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.6215 and 0.6355, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view 24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the drop in AUD to 0.6283 last Friday, we pointed out yesterday that 'The decline lacks momentum, and the current price movements appear to be part of a range trading phase, most likely between 0.6280 and 0.6330.' Our view was incorrect, as after testing the top of our expected range (high of 0.6331), AUD fell sharply to a low of 0.6265. Further declines are not ruled out, but given that momentum is not strong, any weakness is likely limited to a test of 0.6250. The major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view. Resistance is at 0.6295; a breach of 0.6320 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After expecting AUD to recover since late last week, we indicated yesterday (10 Mar, spot at 0.6305) that 'The buildup in momentum is slowing, and a breach of 0.6265 (‘strong support’ level) would suggest AUD is likely to trade in a range instead of recovering.' During the NY session, AUD fell to a low of 0.6265. While our ‘strong support’ level has not been clearly breached, upward momentum has largely faded. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.6215 and 0.6355."

10:57 USD: Investor worries on US grow – ING
The week has started with more risk off, with the S&P500 losing more than 2.5% on Monday.

The week has started with more risk off, with the S&P500 losing more than 2.5% on Monday. This time, the US equity slump was not isolated and European equities also suffered. As a result, the dollar hung on to its haven status better than when US-EU equities were diverging, and we saw some textbook risk off trading in FX: JPY, USD, EUR and CHF gaining against high-beta and commodity currencies, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Balance of risks for the coming weeks has shifted to the upside "It remains hard to pick a bottom in the US sentiment slump and the ramifications for US equities. Markets are questioning both elevated valuations and the broader US investment/macro environment, and while data can stir near-term sentiment, further loss of confidence may need to be tempered by the US administration itself." "Indeed, scattered calls for a US recession in the first quarter – even if probably overblown – aren’t helping. Today’s JOLTS job opening figures will be watched very carefully. The Fed’s focus on the jobs market means that there will be high sensitivity for short-dated USD swaps to today’s figures. Expectations are for job openings to have flattened in January, although greater focus may be on the layoff figures. We’ll also watch closely the quits rate, which is a good leading indicator of wage growth." "Our view is that the dollar is embedding quite a lot of negatives at the moment and the c. Nevertheless, in this jittery market environment, we are not ready to pick the bottom in the dollar before key data events have passed."

10:56 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears turn cautious as focus shifts to US inflation figures
The USD/JPY pair prolongs its recent well-established downtrend and drops to the lowest level since early October, around mid-146.00s during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday.

USD/JPY drops to a fresh multi-month low and is pressured by a combination of factors.BoJ rate hike bets and the risk-off mood underpin the JPY despite weaker Japan Q4 GDP.Dovish Fed expectations keep the USD depressed and further exert pressure on the pair.The USD/JPY pair prolongs its recent well-established downtrend and drops to the lowest level since early October, around mid-146.00s during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday. Concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariffs and a potential global trade war continue to weigh on investors' sentiment. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which, along with hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, underpins the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, the underlying bearish tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD) exerts additional downward pressure on the currency pair. Traders now seem convinced that the BoJ will hike interest rates again amid the broadening inflation in Japan and hopes that bumper wage hikes seen last year will continue this year. In fact, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled last week that the central bank was likely to raise interest rates at a pace in line with dominant views among market players and economists. Moreover, a sluggish demand at an auction of five-year debt, amid the view that rates will keep going up, lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) to its highest level since October 2008 at the start of the current week. This, to a larger extent, offsets the downward revision of Japan's GDP print, which showed that the economic growth slowed to 2.2% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter. This was lower than the initial estimate of a 2.8% rise, though it does little to dent demand for the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, languishes near its lowest level since November amid concerns about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US, which might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs multiple times this year. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and the resultant narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential favors the JPY bulls. Traders, however, might opt to wait for this week's release of the latest US inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) could produce short-term opportunities later during the North American session on Tuesday. USD/JPY daily chart Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown below the 148.70-148.60 horizontal support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains close to oversold territory and makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for further losses. Nevertheless, the broader setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. Hence, any meaningful recovery beyond the daily swing high, around the 147.40 region, could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 148.00 round figure. This, in turn, should cap the USD/JPY pair near the aforementioned support breakpoint, now turned strong barrier near the 148.60-148.70 area. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering rally towards the 149.00 mark en route to the 149.70-149.75 region and the 150.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the 146.55-146.50 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall further towards the 146.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could eventually drag spot prices to the 145.00 psychological mark with some intermediate support near the 145.40-145.35 zone.

10:52 GBP/USD: Upward momentum is slowing – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.2845 and 1.2930.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.2845 and 1.2930. In the longer run, upward momentum is slowing; a breach of 1.2830 would mean that the 1.2975 target is out of reach this time around, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 1.2830, the 1.2975 target is out of reach 24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, GBP rose to a high of 1.2945. Yesterday, Monday, when GBP was at 1.2930, we highlighted the following: 'Although there has been no clear increase in upward momentum, there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.2975 before the risk of a pullback increases. A sustained break above 1.2975 appears unlikely. On the downside, should GBP break below 1.2870 (minor support at 1.2900), it would suggest that it has moved into a range trading phase.' However, GBP rose less than expected, pulling from 1.2946 to 1.2862. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.2845 and 1.2930." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (07 Mar, spot at 1.2890), we highlighted that “the outlook for GBP remains positive” and 'the next technical target is at 1.2975.' Yesterday, Monday, GBP rose slightly above last week’s high of 1.2943 and then pulled back to close lower by 0.33% at 1.2879. Upward momentum is slowing, and a breach of 1.2830 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that 1.2975 is out of reach this time around."

10:38 EUR: German parliamentary hurdles not bothering the euro – ING
Germany’s Chancellor-to-be, Friedrich Merz, is facing obstacles to his plan to push through constitutional reforms to the debt brake before 25 March, when the new parliament is seated.

Germany’s Chancellor-to-be, Friedrich Merz, is facing obstacles to his plan to push through constitutional reforms to the debt brake before 25 March, when the new parliament is seated. Yesterday, the Green party – needed for the 2/3 majority – announced it would oppose the defence spending plan and requested greater environmental guarantees, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. An exploration above 1.090 may be on the cards "The euro dropped on the headline but quickly bounced back when it was reported that the Greens remain open to talks and CDU officials indicated optimism towards an agreement. The FX market continues to price in a best-case scenario for the euro, with the spending plan going ahead." "The eurozone calendar is light this week so developments in German politics and Ukraine-Russia peace talks will remain quite central. Still, EUR/USD should mostly be stirred by news coming from the US. As a secondary driver, ECB members are starting to deliver their post-meeting remarks. Yesterday, hawk Joachim Nagel said the ECB is not moving on 'autopilot' on cuts and it is hard to speculate on April’s move. We’ll hear from dovish-leaning Olli Rehn today and a plethora of other Governing Council members later this week." "We retain a preference for lower EUR/USD, but we may not be at the peak just yet as US domestic risks linger and the euro’s fundamentals have improved. An exploration above 1.090 may be on the cards, but 1.070 remains the most reasonable target for a month ahead, in our view."

10:37 EUR/GBP advances to near 0.8450 as EU moves to increase defense spending
EUR/GBP continues its winning streak that began on March 3, trading around 0.8440 during the European hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP extends its winning streak as the European Union considers boosting defense spending through joint borrowing and EU funds.Germany’s Green Party may negotiate a defense spending agreement with the expected ruling coalition, led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz.The Pound Sterling found support after BoE’s Mann dismissed the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing.EUR/GBP continues its winning streak that began on March 3, trading around 0.8440 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross continues to strengthen as the European Union (EU) explores ways to bolster defense spending through joint borrowing, EU funds, and an expanded role for the European Investment Bank (EIB), with key decisions expected by June. Germany’s Green Party is open to negotiations and aims to reach an agreement by the end of the week in its dispute over defense spending with the country’s likely next ruling coalition, led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. “Of course, we are ready to negotiate,” said Green Party co-leader Franziska Brantner in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday. Earlier, German leaders agreed to relax the borrowing limit, known as the “debt brake,” and establish a €500 billion infrastructure fund to boost defense spending and drive economic growth. Meanwhile, Italy is set to propose a European guarantee scheme that could unlock up to €200 billion ($216.48 billion) in investments for the defense and aerospace industries, according to Reuters. These large-scale economic stimulus measures have prompted traders to scale back expectations of two additional interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, as the potential inflationary impact could limit the scope for further easing. However, the upside for the EUR/GBP cross may be capped as the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains supported by last week’s cautious remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann. She dismissed the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing, citing rising global economic volatility. Before Mann’s comments, four BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, had advocated for a measured approach to reducing monetary policy restrictiveness, emphasizing that inflation persistence is unlikely to ease “on its own accord.” German economy FAQs What is the effect of the German Economy on the Euro? The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets. What is the political role of Germany within the Eurozone? Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members. What are German Bunds? Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity. What are German Bund Yields? German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices. What is the Bundesbank? The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

10:31 EUR/USD: Chance of reaching 1.0945 can decrease quickly – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade sideways between 1.0800 and 1.0880 vs US Dollar (USD).

Euro (EUR) is likely to trade sideways between 1.0800 and 1.0880 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR must push higher soon, or the chance of it reaching 1.0945 will decrease quickly, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 1.0720, rally can take a breather 24-HOUR VIEW: "After EUR rose to a high of 1.0888 last Friday, we indicated yesterday that 'Despite the rise, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum.' We indicated that 'instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely to trade sideways between 1.0800 and 1.0890.' EUR subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (1.0804/1.0874), closing unchanged at 1.0832. There has been no increase in either upward or downward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to trade sideways today, most likely between 1.0800 and 1.0880." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We shifted our view to positive early last week. Tracking the subsequent sharp rally, we indicated last Friday (07 Mar, spot at 1.0790) that “while the uptrend remains intact, at this stage, it is unclear for now if EUR can reach 1.0945.” We continue to hold the same view, but upward momentum is showing signs of slowing, and EUR must push higher soon, or the chance of it reaching 1.0945 will decrease quickly. On the downside, a breach of 1.0720 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.0690) would suggest that the sharp rally is ready to take a breather."

10:30 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.

10:08 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US inflation data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns sideways after a strong rally in over a month around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Tuesday.

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The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles above the four-month low of 103.45 ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data as it will influence market speculation over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Year-on-year headline inflation is estimated to have grown by 2.9%, slower than 3% in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is expected to have decelerated to 3.2% from the prior release of 3.3%. Lately, traders have raised bets supporting the Fed to start reducing interest rates in May amid fears of US President Donald Trump's tariff agenda-led slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood for the Fed to cut interest rates in May has increased to 51% from 37% a day ago. However, a slew of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, has been guiding a “wait and see” approach amid a lack of clarity on President Donald Trump’s tariff and taxation policies. On Friday, Jerome Powell said, “Uncertainty around Trump administration policies and their economic effects remains high, and the net effect of trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulation policy is what matters for the economy and the monetary policy.” In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for January, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.75 million new jobs, slightly higher than the 7.6 million seen in December. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks higher against its peers The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Tuesday as traders become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. Traders are confident about the BoE maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer amid strong wage growth in the United Kingdom (UK), which fuels inflation in the services sector. Last week, four BoE policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, guided before the Parliamentary Treasury Committee a gradual path for “unwinding monetary policy restrictiveness” as the inflation persistence is less likely to fade “on its own accord.” On the contrary, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Catherine Mann argues in favor of a swift monetary expansion approach due to “substantial volatility” coming from financial markets, especially from “cross-border spillovers”. This week, investors will focus on the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for January, which will be released on Friday. The UK economy is estimated to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.1%, compared to 0.4% in December. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling sees more upside above 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.2930 The Pound Sterling gathers strength to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement plotted from the late September high to mid-January low around 1.2930 on Tuesday. The long-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.2692. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum. Looking down, the 50% Fibo retracement at 1.2767 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.2608 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the psychological 1.3000 level will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:56 WTI rises toward $66.00, gains seem limited amid tariff concerns, economic slowdown fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher on Tuesday, trading around $65.90 per barrel during early European hours after experiencing losses in the previous session.

09:24 Forex Today: Recession fears continue to dominate markets
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 11: Growing fears over an economic downturn in the US and its potential activity on the global economic outlook triggered a selloff in major equity indexes at the start of the week.

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On Tuesday, the US economic calendar will feature NFIB Business Optimism Index for February and JOLTS Job Openings data for January. Meanwhile, investors will keep a close eye on political headlines and the action in stock markets. On Monday, Wall Street's main indexes opened in negative territory and continued to push lower, as US President Donald Trump acknowledged over the weekend that they will be in a "period of transition," when asked whether his policy changes could potentially cause a recession. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.8%, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% and the Down Jones Industrial Average declined 2.08% on the first trading day of the week. In the meantime, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose about 20% on the day and reached its highest level since early August. In the European morning on Tuesday, US stock index futures trade marginally higher. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -3.63% -1.61% -1.56% -0.56% -0.91% -1.35% -1.89% EUR 3.63% 2.10% 2.14% 3.19% 2.83% 2.37% 1.80% GBP 1.61% -2.10% 0.06% 1.06% 0.72% 0.27% -0.28% JPY 1.56% -2.14% -0.06% 1.00% 0.65% 0.19% -0.35% CAD 0.56% -3.19% -1.06% -1.00% -0.35% -0.78% -1.34% AUD 0.91% -2.83% -0.72% -0.65% 0.35% -0.44% -1.00% NZD 1.35% -2.37% -0.27% -0.19% 0.78% 0.44% -0.55% CHF 1.89% -1.80% 0.28% 0.35% 1.34% 1.00% 0.55% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US Dollar (USD) Index closed virtually unchanged on Monday as the risk-averse market atmosphere helped the USD stay resilient against its rivals. Falling US Treasury bond yields, however, made it difficult for the USD to gather strength. After losing 2% on Monday, the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield stays in the red below 4.2% early Tuesday and the USD Index edges lower below 104.00. EUR/USD struggled to build on the previous week's gains and closed flat on Monday. The pair gains traction in the European morning and trades above 1.0850. GBP/USD registered small losses on Monday but managed to stabilize near 1.2900 early Tuesday. The data from Japan showed in the Asian session that the Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, down from the 2.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that the Japanese economy is expected to recover moderately, though policymakers remain cautious about external risks. After losing about 0.5% on Monday, USD/JPY trades marginally lower on the day near 147.00 on Tuesday.Gold failed to benefit from falling US T-bond yields and fell more than 0.5% on Monday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $2,900 in the European morning. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:09 BoJ: Financial institutions have sufficient capacity to absorb losses
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said in a statement on Tuesday that “financial institutions have sufficient capacity to absorb losses.” Additional takeaways Smooth functioning of financial intermediation has been maintained even amid global changes in financial and economic conditions.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said in a statement on Tuesday that “financial institutions have sufficient capacity to absorb losses.” Additional takeawaysSmooth functioning of financial intermediation has been maintained even amid global changes in financial and economic conditions. Major financial institutions have strengthened the profitability of their domestic deposit-taking and lending activities, taking into account rising Yen interest rates. Regional financial institutions have improved the profitability of their domestic deposit-taking and lending activities due to rising yen interest rates. Some financial institutions faced challenges in estimating the impact of interest rate hikes on their profitability. Many financial institutions expected credit costs to remain more or less flat, though some recorded large credit losses related to financing for global business activities. With regard to risk management, there were some cases where financial institutions had problems in assessing borrowers' financial and funding conditions.

09:01 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains in play below 190.00
The GBP/JPY cross drifts higher to 189.85 during the early European session on Tuesday.

08:08 FX option expiries for Mar 11 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0625 1.3b 1.0635 801m 1.0750 972m 1.0885 1.5b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2750 428m USD/JPY: USD amounts 145.25 1b 148.70 740m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0..8985 425m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6275 932m 0.6300 843m 0.6385 2.7b USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4265 768m 1.4470 697m 1.4570 690m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5645 652m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8335 413m 0.8425 474m

08:01 USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8800 amid tariff worries
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8800 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:38 USD/CAD remains below 1.4450 amid recession fears in the United States
USD/CAD holds losses after two days of gains, trading around 1.4440 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.8% in February
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.8% in February

07:29 US Dollar Index (DXY) hangs near multi-month low, seems vulnerable above mid-103.00s
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

06:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rises above 1.0850 while remaining in overbought territory
The EUR/USD pair gains ground for the third successive session, trading around 1.0860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

06:45 AUD/JPY softens below 92.50 on risk-off sentiment
The AUD/JPY trades in negative territory to around cross 92.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

06:42 Ukraine launches record drone attacks on Moscow
Hours ahead of the US-Ukraine Summit on minerals and peace deal, Ukraine launched record drone attacks on Russia’s capital, Moscow.

Hours ahead of the US-Ukraine Summit on minerals and peace deal, Ukraine launched record drone attacks on Russia’s capital, Moscow. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that Russian air defence units destroyed at least 11 Ukrainian drones flying towards the capital. “The drones were downed over the Ramenskoye and Domodedovo districts of the Moscow region. Both districts lie about 40 km (25 miles) to 50 km (30 miles) south and southeast of the Kremlin,” he added. Russia's aviation watchdog said that flights were suspended at the Zhukovo and Domodedovo airports following these attacks.

06:40 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,136.41 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR -0.03 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 94,901.45 per tola from INR 94,612.61 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,136.41 10 Grams 81,347.34 Tola 94,901.45 Troy Ounce 253,060.20 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold price retreats amid falling US yields The US 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped nearly nine basis points to 4.218% as traders eye the Fed’s interest rate cuts. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, edge down five-and-a-half basis points to 1.906%, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to lower rates. Powell added that getting inflation to 2% would be bumpy and that the central bank doesn’t need to overreact to one or two readings. Powell said the Fed is well-positioned regarding monetary policy. The New York Fed Consumer Sentiment Survey revealed that inflation expectations for one year in February increased from 3% to 3.1%. For the three and five-year periods, they remained unchanged at 3%. Americans expect price increases in gas, rent and food. The latest US jobs report for February was mixed, with the economy adding over 150K people to the workforce, but the Unemployment Rate rose by 4.1%. Nevertheless, the data shows that the labor market remains solid. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continues to purchase Gold, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The PBoC increased its holdings by 10 tonnes in the first two months of 2025. However, the largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which increased its reserve by 29 tonnes, its largest purchase since June 2019, when it bought 95 tonnes. Money market traders had priced in 80 basis points of easing in 2025, up from 74 bps last Friday, via data from Prime Market Terminal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:38 Gold price recovers part of Monday’s slide amid trade war fears, sustained USD selling
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's downfall to a one-week low.

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The uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy continues to weigh on investors' sentiment. This is evident from the prevalent risk-off mood, which, along with geopolitical risks, drives flows toward the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, expectations that a tariff-driven slowdown in US growth might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates multiple times this year keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level since November. This, in turn, is seen as another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold price. However, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so warrants caution for bulls ahead of the US inflation figures this week. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to be underpinned by rising trade tensions and bearish USD Investors continue to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid concerns about US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, assisting the Gold price to rebound from a one-week trough touched on Monday. In fact, Trump's 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports go into effect on Wednesday. Furthermore, the Trump administration is preparing for other levies planned for April 2. Markets remain worried about a potential US recession on the back of Trump's protectionist policies. Adding to this, signs of a weakening US labor market fuel speculations that the Federal Reserve would resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and the US Dollar close to a multi-month low, further lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's meeting with Trump at the Oval Office on February 28 ended in disaster, leading to the US suspending all military aid to Ukraine. Hence, investors brace for more geopolitical action at a meeting between US officials and their Ukrainian counterparts starting today. This, in turn, could play a key role in influencing the XAU/USD pair's price action. Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US. The focus, however, will remain on the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. This will drive the USD and determine the near-term trajectory for the precious metal. Gold price bears need to wait for some follow-through selling below the $2,880 support before placing fresh bets From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown and close below the $2,900 round figure, or the lower end of a short-term trading range, could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. That said, mixed oscillators on the daily chart make it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $2,880 region, or the one-week low, before positioning for further losses. The subsequent downfall could drag the Gold price to the $2,860 intermediate support en route to the late February swing low, around the $2,833-2,832 region, and the $2,800 mark. On the flip side, any further move up beyond the $2,900 round figure is likely to face some resistance near the $2,922-2,924 area. A sustained strength beyond the said barrier could lift the Gold price beyond the $2,934 resistance, towards retesting the record high, around the $2,956 region touched on February 24. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:29 US-China trade talks stuck at lower levels – Bloomberg
Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, that talks between the US and China on trade and other issues are in a deadlock.

05:52 Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 127.2 to 126.4 in February
Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 127.2 to 126.4 in February

05:48 NZD/USD remains below 0.5700 as deflationary pressures deepen in China
NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5690 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD declines as the New Zealand Dollar comes under pressure from deepening deflationary concerns in China.The NZD weakened amid escalating global trade tensions after China’s retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products took effect on Monday.US growth concerns grew after President Donald Trump described it as being in a "transition period," signaling a potential slowdown.NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5690 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to lose ground as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to deflationary pressures deepened in China, highlighted by the steepest fall in consumer prices in 13 months in February and the 29th straight month of drop in factory-gate prices. Given China’s status as New Zealand’s largest trading partner, these developments have weighed on market sentiment. Additionally, the NZD faced challenges as rising global trade tensions dampened investors’ risk appetite. China's retaliatory tariffs of up to 15% on certain US agricultural products went into effect on Monday, in response to last week's US tariff increase from 10% to 20% on Chinese imports. However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid concerns that tariff policy uncertainty could push the US economy into recession. US President Donald Trump characterized the economy as being in a "transition period," hinting at a potential slowdown. Investors took his remarks as an early signal of possible economic turbulence in the near future. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured markets that the central bank sees no immediate need to adjust monetary policy despite rising uncertainties. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this sentiment, noting that increasing business uncertainty could dampen demand but does not justify an interest rate change. With the Federal Reserve entering its blackout period ahead of the March 19 meeting, central bank c New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens. ommentary will be limited this week. Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday for further insights into inflation trends.

04:57 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds from multi-day low, climbs back above $32.00
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses an Asian session dip to the $31.85-$31.80 region, or a four-day low, and climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour.

04:44 USD/INR gathers strength on concerns over US tariffs, global trade war
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Tuesday, pressured by strong US Dollar (USD) demand by importers.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee weakens in Tuesday’s Asian session.Persistent US dollar demand and unabated outflow of foreign funds weigh on the INR. Indian and US CPI inflation reports will take center stage on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Tuesday, pressured by strong US Dollar (USD) demand by importers. Maturities in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market also exert some selling pressure on the local currency that has been hit by foreign fund sales of local equities since late September. The uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy might impact emerging market currencies like the INR.

Nonetheless, any significant depreciation of the local currency might be limited due to the foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Furthermore, a decline in crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

In the absence of top-tier economic data releases from the United States and India on Tuesday, the USD/INR pair will be driven by the Greenback. The Indian and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports for February will be the highlights on Wednesday. Indian Rupee edges lower amid portfolio outflows and global factors "The rupee weakened because of an increase in dollar demand from oil companies, as Indian companies have started buying oil from the US," a trader at a private bank said. Foreign investors have withdrawn almost $15 billion from Indian shares so far this year, putting outflows on track to surpass the record $17 billion registered in 2022. The selloff has wiped out $1.3 trillion from India’s market value. Trump declined on Sunday to predict whether the US could face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions on Mexico, Canada and China. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in weaker than the expectation, rising by 151K in February versus 125K prior (revised from 143K). Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the US central bank can remain patient in adjusting its benchmark interest rate, citing uncertainty around the potential impact of Trump's policies. Traders are now pricing in 75 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, LSEG data showed, with a rate cut fully priced in for June. USD/INR retains its bullish bias in the longer term The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The bullish bias of the USD/INR pair remains intact, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The path of least resistance is to the upside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 60.0.

The first upside target for USD/INR emerges at 87.53, the high of February 28. Potential bullish candlesticks above the mentioned level could see a rally to an all-time high near 88.00, en route to 88.50.

In the bearish event, the initial support level is located at 86.86, the low of March 6. Any follow-through selling could attract some selling pressure to 86.48, the low of February 21, followed by 86.14, the low of January 27. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:43 GBP/USD maintains position near 1.2900 as concerns over US economic growth persist
The GBP/USD pair recovers recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.2890 during Asian hours on Tuesday.

04:34 Japanese Yen refreshes multi-month top against USD despite weaker Japan Q4 GDP
The Japanese Yen (JPY) climbed to a fresh multi-month top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday despite the downward revision of Japan's Q4 GDP print, which complicates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plan for a further rate hike.

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A downward revision of Japan’s Q4 GDP does little to dent the JPY bullish sentiment.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations support prospects for a further USD/JPY decline.The Japanese Yen (JPY) climbed to a fresh multi-month top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday despite the downward revision of Japan's Q4 GDP print, which complicates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plan for a further rate hike. The recent sharp narrowing of the yield differential between Japan and other countries turns out to be a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the JPY. Apart from this, the risk-off mood further underpins the safe-haven JPY. The JPY bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unaffected by concerns that US President Donald Trump could impose fresh tariffs on Japan. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains depressed near a multi-month low amid rising bets that a tariff-driven slowdown in US growth might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs multiple times this year. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside and supports prospects for further losses. Japanese Yen continues to draw support from divergent BoJ-Fed expectations, risk-off mood The Cabinet Office’s revised data released this Tuesday showed that Japan’s economic growth slowed to 2.2% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, lower than the initial estimate of 2.8% rise. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economy expanded by 0.6% as compared with a 0.7% growth in preliminary data released last month. The data reaffirms market bets that the Bank of Japan will keep the policy rate steady at its next policy meeting on March 18-19. That said, traders are pricing in the possibility of another BoJ rate hike as soon as May amid concerns about broadening inflation in Japan and hopes that bumper wage hikes seen last year will continue this year. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled last week that the central bank was likely to raise interest rates at a pace in line with dominant views among financial markets and economists. This had been a key factor behind the recent surge in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to its highest level since October 2008 set on Monday. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa highlighted the importance of exchange rates moving in accordance with economic fundamentals while reaffirming that monetary policy decisions rest with the BoJ. Separately, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that higher long-term interest rates could have wide-ranging effects on the economy. Meanwhile, Japan Trade Minister Yoji Muto said that he would continue discussing tariffs with the US and did not confirm that Japan is exempt from steel tariffs. US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports go into effect on Wednesday. Furthermore, there are other levies planned for April 2. The US Dollar languishes near its lowest level since November amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will start its rate-cutting cycle sooner amid signs of a weakening US labor market. This, along with the uncertainty over Trump's trade policies and their impact on the US economic growth, backs the case for further monetary easing. Traders now look forward to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the latest US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and determine the near-term trajectory for the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY needs to consolidate before the next leg down as daily RSI remains near oversold zone From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains on the verge of breaking into the oversold territory and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension of a two-month-old downtrend. However, any attempted recovery beyond the 147.25-147.30 immediate hurdle is likely to attract fresh sellers ahead of the 148.00 round figure. This is followed by the 148.60-148.70 strong horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance, which should now act as a key pivotal point and cap the USD/JPY pair. On the flip side, the Asian session swing low, around the 146.55-146.50 area, could offer some support, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the slide towards the 146.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 145.25 intermediate support en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Japan’s economic activity. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 10, 2025 23:50 Frequency: QuarterlyActual: 2.2%Consensus: -Previous: 2.8%Source: Japanese Cabinet Office

03:36 Australian Dollar holds losses despite a stronger Westpac Consumer Confidence
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains under pressure despite a release of stronger economic data on Tuesday.Westpac Consumer Confidence climbed 4% to 95.9 in March, up from 92.2 in February, reaching its highest level in three years.The US Dollar struggles as concerns grow that tariff policy uncertainty could push the US economy into a recession.The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday. Despite a stronger Westpac Consumer Confidence reading—rising 4% to 95.9 in March from 92.2 in February, marking its highest level in three years—the AUD/USD pair continues to struggle. The uptick in sentiment was driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut in February and easing cost-of-living pressures. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield declined to around 4.39% as escalating global trade tensions dampened investor risk appetite. China's retaliatory tariffs on select United States (US) agricultural products took effect on Monday, following Washington’s recent tariff hike from 10% to 20% on Chinese imports. Given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner, these developments have weighed on market sentiment. Traders remain focused on the RBA’s policy outlook, especially after last week’s strong economic data tempered expectations of further rate cuts. Economic growth exceeded forecasts, marking its first acceleration in over a year. Additionally, the latest RBA Meeting Minutes signaled a cautious approach to monetary policy, clarifying that February’s rate cut does not imply a commitment to ongoing easing. Australian Dollar faces challenges amid escalating global trade tensions The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, is remaining subdued for the sixth consecutive day, hovering around 103.80 at the time of writing. Concerns over tariff policy uncertainty potentially pushing the US economy into recession have weighed on the Greenback. Weaker-than-expected US job data for February reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with multiple rate cuts this year. According to LSEG data, traders are now pricing in a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June cut fully anticipated. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000. January’s job growth was also revised downward to 125,000 from the previously reported 143,000. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated late Sunday that increasing uncertainty among businesses could weaken demand in the US economy but does not warrant a change in interest rates. Daly noted that business leaders in her district are expressing growing concerns about the economy and policy, which research indicates could dampen demand. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that the 25% tariffs, imposed by President Donald Trump in February, on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on Wednesday, are unlikely to be postponed, according to Bloomberg. While US steelmakers have urged Trump to maintain the tariffs, businesses reliant on these materials may face increased costs. President Trump stated on Sunday that he anticipates a positive outcome from the US discussions with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. Trump also mentioned that his administration has considered lifting an intelligence pause on Ukraine, is evaluating various aspects of tariffs on Russia, and is not worried about military exercises involving Russia, China, and Iran, according to Reuters. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks on Friday reassured markets that the central bank sees no immediate need to adjust monetary policy, despite mounting economic uncertainties. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that global trade uncertainty is at a 50-year high. Hauser warned that uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump's tariffs could prompt businesses and households to delay planning and investment, potentially weighing on economic growth. China announced on Saturday that it will impose a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, along with a 25% levy on aquatic products and pork from Canada. The move comes as retaliation against tariffs introduced by Canada in October, escalating trade tensions. This marks a new front in a broader trade conflict driven by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The tariffs are set to take effect on March 20. China’s Consumer Price Index fell by 0.7% year-over-year in February, exceeding market expectations of a 0.5% decline and reversing the 0.5% increase recorded in the previous month. This marks the first instance of consumer deflation since January 2024, driven by weakening seasonal demand after the Spring Festival in late January. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation stood at -0.2% in February, down from January’s 0.7% and softer than the expected -0.1%. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar falls to near 0.6250 as bearish momentum strengthens The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6260 on Tuesday, with technical analysis of the daily chart showing the pair slipping below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weakening short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, indicating a shift toward a bearish bias. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could navigate the region around the five-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. The nine-day EMA at 0.6288 serves as the immediate resistance for the AUD/USD pair, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6305. A break above this level could strengthen short-term momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward the three-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% 0.01% -0.25% -0.00% 0.21% 0.30% -0.31% EUR 0.08% 0.10% -0.16% 0.09% 0.30% 0.39% -0.23% GBP -0.01% -0.10% -0.25% -0.02% 0.20% 0.28% -0.31% JPY 0.25% 0.16% 0.25% 0.23% 0.45% 0.53% -0.06% CAD 0.00% -0.09% 0.02% -0.23% 0.21% 0.30% -0.30% AUD -0.21% -0.30% -0.20% -0.45% -0.21% 0.10% -0.51% NZD -0.30% -0.39% -0.28% -0.53% -0.30% -0.10% -0.60% CHF 0.31% 0.23% 0.31% 0.06% 0.30% 0.51% 0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Westpac Consumer Confidence The Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year, expectations about the one-year and five-year economic conditions and views about current buying conditions for major household items. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 10, 2025 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 4%Consensus: -Previous: 0.1%Source: University of Melbourne

03:17 Japan’s Kato: Higher long-term rates could have wide-ranging effects on economy
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Tuesday that higher long-term interest rates could have wide-ranging effects on the economy, underscoring the need for careful monitoring of financial conditions.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1741 vs. 7.1733 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1741 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1733 and 7.2597 Reuters estimates.

03:00 WTI tumbles below $65.50 on demand concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.45 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:48 Japan’s Akazawa: FX should move stably, reflecting fundamentals
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that the Japanese economy is expected to recover moderately, though policymakers remain cautious about external risks.

02:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence fell from previous 4 to -1 in February
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence fell from previous 4 to -1 in February

02:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 4 in February from previous 3
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 4 in February from previous 3

02:25 Italy pushes for €200 billion defence plan using EU guarantees - Reuters
Italy plans to propose to its European guarantee scheme that could potentially trigger investments worth up to 200 billion euros ($216.48 billion) in the defence and aerospace industries, per Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter.

02:16 Japan’s Muto to continue discussing tariffs with the US
Japan Trade Minister Yoji Muto said early Tuesday that he will continue discussing tariffs with the United States.

01:55 Japan’s GDP grows 0.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, missing the preliminary estimate
The Japanese economy witnessed a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the quarter to December of 2024, missing the preliminary reading of 0.7%, the final reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Tuesday.

01:52 Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)
Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)

01:51 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 1.2% (February) vs previous 1.3%
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 1.2% (February) vs previous 1.3%

01:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.6%, below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q
Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.6%, below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q

01:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized declined to 2.2% in 4Q from previous 2.8%
Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized declined to 2.2% in 4Q from previous 2.8%

01:44 EUR/USD freezes in place near multi-month highs
EUR/USD cycled in familiar territory on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on a notable quiet note as Fiber traders gear up for a US-data-heavy data docket on the cards for this week.

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Equities roiled on Monday, falling nearly across the board as investors pull back in the face of rising recession fears, but Fiber traders have battened down the hatches as they await key US inflation figures this week before solidifying their bets.Forex Today: Attention shifts to Japanese GDP and US jobs dataEuropean economic data is strictly mid-tier or lower this week, as markets pivot to face a wide spread of key US releases. JOLTS Jobs Openings kick things off on Tuesday, which are forecast to rise slightly to 7.75M in January from the previous 7.6M. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation follows up on Tuesday, and investors are hoping for a continued easing in inflation pressures after a surprise uptick in inflation metrics at the start of 2025 blindsided markets. Investors have been betting on easing inflation to keep pushing the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward more rate cuts, despite ongoing talking points from policymakers increasingly tipping their hats to wobbly US trade policies increasingly hampering forecasting abilities. Median market forecasts expect a slight cooling in headline and core CPI numbers. Headline CPI inflation in February is expected to ease to 0.3% MoM from 0.5%, while core monthly CPI is expected to tick down to a matching 0.3% from 0.4%. Annualized CPI is similarly expected to drop slightly to 2.9% YoY from 3.0%, while core CPI for the year ended in February is forecast t tick down to 3.2% from 3.3%. On-and-off tariffs weigh on investor sentiment Markets continue to feel bearish pressure due to President Donald Trump’s clumsy tariff threats, which his administration keeps revisiting. The White House is attempting to impose significant tariffs on the US's closest trading partners to generate revenue that can counterbalance the large deficits arising from Trump’s proposed tax cuts. However, implementation is challenging, as the most vocal opponents of Trump’s tariff plans are largely US consumers and businesses that face heightened spending and operational costs due to retaliatory tariffs affecting crucial US industries and sectors. President Trump faced down questions about a possible recession in the US economy, waving the subject off and branding an economic downturn as a “transition” period during a weekend interview with Fox News that was held from broadcast until early Monday. Donald Trump eventually capitulated on his own words, acknowledging that the US could be in for a ‘rough patch’. President Trump and his staff pulled double-duty on Monday attempting to rebrand the recent upswing in inflation and broad-market risk aversion as the fault of the previous Biden administration, rather than a direct result of the US’ wobbly approach to enacting tariffs on key US trading partners. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD got stuck in the muck on Monday, mulching chart paper near the 1.0850 region as Fiber’s recent bull run looks set to end. EUR/USD easily pierced through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last week, soaring through the key moving average near 1.0630. Fiber climbed 5.1%, or 528 pips, bottom-to-top from the last swing low at 1.0360, but bullish momentum looks set to take a pause. Technical oscillators are pinned in overbought territory, implying EUR/USD could be primed for a fresh push to the low side. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 4% (March) vs 0.1%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 4% (March) vs 0.1%

01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at 0.8% below forecasts (3.6%) in January
Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at 0.8% below forecasts (3.6%) in January

01:12 USD/CAD holds below 1.4450 ahead of BoC rate decision
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses around 1.4435, snapping the two-day winning streak during the late American session on Monday.

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The probable US economic slowdown and ongoing selloff on Wall Street drag the Greenback lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The weaker-than-expected US February job data suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) remained on track to cut interest rates multiple times this year. Traders are now pricing in 75 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, LSEG data showed, with a rate cut fully priced in for June.

Investors will closely watch the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday for fresh impetus. Investors hope for another cooldown in headline CPI inflation, which accelerated in January.

On the other hand, the BoC is anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut at its March meeting on Wednesday while it waits to see how long the dispute with Canada’s largest trading partner lasts. CIBC analysts expect the Canadian central bank to cut 25 bps on Wednesday, lowering its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with more cuts to follow this year if trade uncertainty persists. The rising bets of further BoC rate reductions could undermine the CAD and help limit the pair’s losses.

Meanwhile, a decline in crude oil prices amid tariff uncertainty and rising output from OPEC+ producers might exert some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

01:01 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Extends decline towards 147.00
The USD/JPY stumbles for the second consecutive day as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to gather strength due to safe-haven demand.

00:03 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears test key support as downside risks grow
The NZD/USD pair extended its decline on Monday ahead of the Asian session, slipping toward the 0.5700 zone as sellers maintained control.

NZD/USD was seen trading near the 0.5700 area ahead of the Asian session, marking its second consecutive daily decline.Buyers face a key test at the 20-day SMA near 0.5960, as a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure.Technical indicators signal increasing downside risks, with the 100-day SMA approaching a bearish crossover with the 20-day SMA.The NZD/USD pair extended its decline on Monday ahead of the Asian session, slipping toward the 0.5700 zone as sellers maintained control. The pair has now fallen for two straight sessions, with buyers struggling to defend the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level that has acted as key support in recent weeks. The inability to hold above this area could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the pair to additional losses. Technical indicators reflect a growing bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory but is declining sharply, indicating fading bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is neutral, signaling a weakening trend with limited upside potential. More importantly, the 100-day SMA is edging closer to the 20-day SMA, hinting at a potential bearish crossover that could further weigh on the pair. Looking at key technical levels, immediate support is seen at the 20-day SMA around 0.5960. A break below this level would expose the 0.5650 region, followed by stronger support near 0.5600. On the upside, resistance stands at the 0.5750 level, with a stronger barrier at 0.5800. NZD/USD daily chart

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21:01 Forex Today: US inflation data gathers all the attention There was no respite for the downside pressure in the Greenback on Tuesday, with the currency deflating to levels lasty seen in early October amid further effervescence around tariff and US recession concerns.

20:17 US Dollar extends losses amid fresh trade tensions The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward spiral on Tuesday, with DXY hovering near 103.40 as trade tensions escalate.

20:08 Mexican Peso holds firm despite Trump’s new tariffs on Canada The Mexican Peso holds firm against the US Dollar and fails to gain traction even though the latter refreshes year-to-date (YTD) lows against a basket of six currencies, revealed the US Dollar Index (DXY).

19:05 United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.908% vs previous 4.3% United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.908% vs previous 4.3%

18:42 Dow Jones Industrial Average drops further as trade war heats up The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed further weight on Tuesday, dropping nearly 700 points on the day, or 1.76% after United States (US) President Donald Trump vowed to heat up his own trade war with Canada.

17:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls reclaim momentum as pair nears November highs The EUR/USD pair regained bullish traction on Tuesday after the European session, advancing past the 1.0900 zone and continuing its strong upward trend.

17:03 Trump: Places additional 25% tariffs on Canada The US President Donald Trump revealed on this Truth Social account that he is imposing an additional 25% tariff, to 50% on aluminum and steel imports from Canada to the US.

16:50 US JOLTS Job openings increased to 7.74 million in January According to Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job openings totaled 7.74 million at the end of January.

16:18 USD/JPY surges to near 148.00 as Trump tariffs weigh on Japan’s economic outlook The USD/JPY pair recovers strongly to near 148.00 in North American trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh five-month low of 146.50 earlier in the day.

16:16 Japan: BoJ to press pause on hikes – Standard Chartered BoJ likely to keep rates unchanged in March to support financial stability and avoid premature tightening.

16:14 GBP firmer but lags EUR gains – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer on the session, with the EUR’s gains still proving the GBP with its essential dynamism, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:08 The CAD is a little firmer on the session – Scotiabank Tariff concerns are keeping the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the defensive and the US Dollar (USD) trading well above its estimated fair value, according to our measure, at least, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:05 USD slide resumes after brief pause – Scotiabank After a brief pause yesterday as stocks slumped, the US Dollar (USD) slide is resuming this morning as US growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

16:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings above expectations (7.63M) in January: Actual (7.74M) United States JOLTS Job Openings above expectations (7.63M) in January: Actual (7.74M)

15:49 AUD/USD gains to near 0.6300 amid weakness in US Dollar The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near the key level of 0.6300 in Tuesday’s North American session.

14:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 5.7% in March 7 from previous 6.6% United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 5.7% in March 7 from previous 6.6%

14:01 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0%) Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0%)

14:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2.2%) in January Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.4%, below expectations (2.2%) in January

13:31 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades lower amid caution ahead of BoC monetary policy meeting The USD/CAD pair declines to near 1.4400 in European trading hours on Tuesday after correcting from the four-day high of 1.4470 posted on Monday.

12:32 S&P 500: Next potential supports are at 5520 and 5400/5370 – Société Générale S&P 500 recently broke below the lower limit of its range since December confirming a short-term downtrend.

12:28 DXY: Next potential supports are at 102.90/102.60 and 101.90 – Société Générale The Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a steady downtrend after facing strong resistance near 110.15 in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:25 AUD/USD: Consolidation above recent lows – BBH AUD/USD is consolidating above recent lows, BBH FX analysts report.

12:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD advances to near $32.50 as USD Index dives on US economic concerns Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps sharply to near $32.50 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:18 USD/CNH: Downward pressure remains intact – UOB Group USD is likely to trade in a 7.2400/7.2700 range vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

12:15 USD/JPY: Upside risk to wages supports the increasing trend in private demand – BBH USD/JPY is drifting lower on broad USD weakness, BBH FX analysts report.

12:13 Gold pops up whilst Greenback deepens losses again Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is popping back above the $2,900 round level and even trades above $2,910 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

12:01 USD/JPY: The next technical target is at 146.05 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could continue to decline vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05.

12:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 100.7, below expectations (101) in February United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 100.7, below expectations (101) in February

11:57 EUR/USD holds strong above 1.0900 – BBH EUR/USD is trading firmer above 1.0900. Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD coalition are in high-stakes negotiations with the Green party to get the draft debt package passed in the current parliament, BBH FX analysts report.

11:50 Spain 9-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.269% from previous 2.248% Spain 9-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.269% from previous 2.248%

11:50 Spain 3-Month Letras Auction dipped from previous 2.431% to 2.359% Spain 3-Month Letras Auction dipped from previous 2.431% to 2.359%

11:48 EUR/USD refreshes four-month high as US Dollar slumps on US slowdown fears EUR/USD posts a fresh four-month high above 1.0900 in European trading hours on Tuesday.

11:46 NZD/USD: Unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660 – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to edge lower vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to break the strong support level at 0.5660.

11:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 SEK: Some dovish risks after hawkish repricing – ING The Riksbank’s Executive Board testifies before parliament this morning, and that can bring about some market-moving headlines.

11:25 EUR/USD: US cyclical growth narrative becomes an increasingly key driver – Danske Bank EUR/USD remains in the low-1.08-1.09 range in a relatively quiet start to the week, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

11:13 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds position above 0.5700 near 50-day EMA support The NZD/USD pair holds gains after recovering daily losses, trading around 0.5710 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

11:09 AUD/USD: Under mild downward pressure and can test 0.6250 – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure and could test 0.6250 vs US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view.

10:57 USD: Investor worries on US grow – ING The week has started with more risk off, with the S&P500 losing more than 2.5% on Monday.

10:56 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears turn cautious as focus shifts to US inflation figures The USD/JPY pair prolongs its recent well-established downtrend and drops to the lowest level since early October, around mid-146.00s during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday.

10:52 GBP/USD: Upward momentum is slowing – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.2845 and 1.2930.

10:38 EUR: German parliamentary hurdles not bothering the euro – ING Germany’s Chancellor-to-be, Friedrich Merz, is facing obstacles to his plan to push through constitutional reforms to the debt brake before 25 March, when the new parliament is seated.

10:37 EUR/GBP advances to near 0.8450 as EU moves to increase defense spending EUR/GBP continues its winning streak that began on March 3, trading around 0.8440 during the European hours on Tuesday.

10:31 EUR/USD: Chance of reaching 1.0945 can decrease quickly – UOB Group Euro (EUR) is likely to trade sideways between 1.0800 and 1.0880 vs US Dollar (USD).

10:30 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.

10:08 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US inflation data The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns sideways after a strong rally in over a month around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Tuesday.

09:56 WTI rises toward $66.00, gains seem limited amid tariff concerns, economic slowdown fears West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher on Tuesday, trading around $65.90 per barrel during early European hours after experiencing losses in the previous session.

09:24 Forex Today: Recession fears continue to dominate markets Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 11: Growing fears over an economic downturn in the US and its potential activity on the global economic outlook triggered a selloff in major equity indexes at the start of the week.

09:01 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains in play below 190.00 The GBP/JPY cross drifts higher to 189.85 during the early European session on Tuesday.

08:08 FX option expiries for Mar 11 NY cut FX option expiries for Mar 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:01 USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8800 amid tariff worries The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8800 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:38 USD/CAD remains below 1.4450 amid recession fears in the United States USD/CAD holds losses after two days of gains, trading around 1.4440 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.8% in February Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.8% in February

07:29 US Dollar Index (DXY) hangs near multi-month low, seems vulnerable above mid-103.00s The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

06:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rises above 1.0850 while remaining in overbought territory The EUR/USD pair gains ground for the third successive session, trading around 1.0860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

06:45 AUD/JPY softens below 92.50 on risk-off sentiment The AUD/JPY trades in negative territory to around cross 92.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

06:42 Ukraine launches record drone attacks on Moscow Hours ahead of the US-Ukraine Summit on minerals and peace deal, Ukraine launched record drone attacks on Russia’s capital, Moscow.

06:40 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:38 Gold price recovers part of Monday’s slide amid trade war fears, sustained USD selling Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's downfall to a one-week low.

06:29 US-China trade talks stuck at lower levels – Bloomberg Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, that talks between the US and China on trade and other issues are in a deadlock.

05:52 Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 127.2 to 126.4 in February Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 127.2 to 126.4 in February

05:48 NZD/USD remains below 0.5700 as deflationary pressures deepen in China NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5690 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

04:57 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds from multi-day low, climbs back above $32.00 Silver (XAG/USD) reverses an Asian session dip to the $31.85-$31.80 region, or a four-day low, and climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour.

04:44 USD/INR gathers strength on concerns over US tariffs, global trade war The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Tuesday, pressured by strong US Dollar (USD) demand by importers.

04:43 GBP/USD maintains position near 1.2900 as concerns over US economic growth persist The GBP/USD pair recovers recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.2890 during Asian hours on Tuesday.

03:36 Australian Dollar holds losses despite a stronger Westpac Consumer Confidence The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1741 vs. 7.1733 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1741 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1733 and 7.2597 Reuters estimates.

03:00 WTI tumbles below $65.50 on demand concerns West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.45 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:48 Japan’s Akazawa: FX should move stably, reflecting fundamentals Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that the Japanese economy is expected to recover moderately, though policymakers remain cautious about external risks.

02:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence fell from previous 4 to -1 in February Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence fell from previous 4 to -1 in February

02:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 4 in February from previous 3 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 4 in February from previous 3

02:16 Japan’s Muto to continue discussing tariffs with the US Japan Trade Minister Yoji Muto said early Tuesday that he will continue discussing tariffs with the United States.

01:55 Japan’s GDP grows 0.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, missing the preliminary estimate The Japanese economy witnessed a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the quarter to December of 2024, missing the preliminary reading of 0.7%, the final reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Tuesday.

01:52 Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%) Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)

01:51 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 1.2% (February) vs previous 1.3% Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 1.2% (February) vs previous 1.3%

01:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.6%, below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.6%, below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q

01:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized declined to 2.2% in 4Q from previous 2.8% Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized declined to 2.2% in 4Q from previous 2.8%

01:44 EUR/USD freezes in place near multi-month highs EUR/USD cycled in familiar territory on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on a notable quiet note as Fiber traders gear up for a US-data-heavy data docket on the cards for this week.

01:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 4% (March) vs 0.1% Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 4% (March) vs 0.1%