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12:16 The wonderfully normal Bank of England – Commerzbank
Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based.

Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based. This is exactly what is meant by 'inflation,' and it is the task of the monetary authorities to control it. As a result, the pound rose, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. BoE might actively respond to unexpected inflationary developments"This mechanism works so well in the UK because everyone is convinced that the Bank of England (BoE) will actively respond to unexpected inflationary developments. Recent events, but also the communication of the 'old lady of Threadneedle Street,' have strengthened confidence in the BoE's responsiveness. Since the eve of the last BoE meeting, market expectations regarding the future BoE interest rate path have shifted significantly upward. Yesterday's inflation data justify this market view and the strength of the GBP that we have seen recently.""This is where the advantage of a monetary policy that has earned trust in its responsiveness through reliable work comes into play: because a strong pound (the third strongest G10 currency since that BoE meeting, surpassed only by the Scandinavian currencies!) dampens domestic inflation, the foreign exchange market is doing part of the BoE's job. So to speak. And so it is justified that a little bit of interest rate cut expectations are still priced in.""Of course, yesterday's market reaction also showed that the effect of the revision of interest rate expectations is slowly wearing off. Cable did gain ground yesterday, but this was more a USD story than GBP-driven. The strong inflation figures did not help against the euro or the G10 average. For me, this means that for the pound to continue to gain ground across the board in the coming days and weeks, something new will have to happen."

12:11 GBP/USD falls to near 1.3400 following mixed UK PMI data
GBP/USD is depreciating after the mixed S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data was released on Thursday. The pair has maintained its position near 1.3468, the highest since February 2022, reached on Wednesday, and is trading around 1.3410 during the European hours.

11:58 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%

11:57 GBP: EUR/GBP drop delayed – ING
April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/GBP can below 0.840 in the near term"Other key areas like restaurants, medical care, and rents are showing signs of disinflation. While rent is still propping up the overall figure, its impact is set to shrink next year. Our view is that services inflation will fall further this summer, and while levels remain high for the Bank of England, an August rate cut still looks on the cards.""Markets have scaled back easing bets only modestly, and an August move is still just about 50% priced in. As a consequence, there hasn’t been much support for the pound coming from the CPI release, and EUR/GBP is likely finding support from market instability borrowed from the US." "We still like the chances of EUR/GBP below 0.840, although calmer asset markets are likely a necessary condition."

11:53 New Zealand: Fiscally adrift – Standard Chartered
Government maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by FY29; but deficit path has widened materially. Growth forecasts were downgraded across the forecast horizon. Near-term issuance trimmed, but total borrowing over the forecast horizon revised up by NZD 4bn.

Government maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by FY29; but deficit path has widened materially. Growth forecasts were downgraded across the forecast horizon. Near-term issuance trimmed, but total borrowing over the forecast horizon revised up by NZD 4bn. The budget does little to shift the near-term monetary policy outlook, Standard Chartered's economists Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia report. Margins getting tighter"New Zealand’s Budget 2025 struck a tone of near-term restraint, cutting the operating allowance to NZD 1.3bn – the lowest in over a decade – while keeping capital spending steady at NZD 4bn. Despite this, a weaker growth backdrop and new tax incentives have widened the projected fiscal deficits over the next four years. The government maintained its target of returning to a surplus by FY29 (ending June 2029), although a deficit of NZD 12.1bn (2.6% of GDP) is still forecast for FY26 – around NZD 1.6bn wider than projected in the December 2024 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). We see the risk of further slippage beyond this forecast if growth underperforms or spending pressures re-emerge.""While bond issuance for FY25 and FY26 was trimmed by NZD 4bn, this was offset by increases in later years – including a NZD 6bn uplift in FY29. Overall, gross issuance over the four-year forecast is up NZD 4bn to NZD 175bn (42% of GDP). Despite near-term relief, the funding task remains sizeable as maturities from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ’s) Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme roll off and debt servicing costs rise.""On monetary policy, we believe Budget 2025 is unlikely to alter the RBNZ’s near-term path. For the RBNZ, we think the message is clear: while fiscal policy supports disinflation, monetary policy will remain the primary anchor, particularly as global risks and medium-term pressures persist."

11:48 EUR/USD briefly dips as Eurozone PMIs unexpectedly decline
EUR/USD faces selling pressure and falls to near 1.1310 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.

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The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May. The report showed that the Composite PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4 in April, suggesting that the overall business activity declined. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is seen as a contraction in business activities.According to the PMI report, activities in the services sector contracted unexpectedly for the first time since November 2024, while the Manufacturing PMI contracted at a slower-than-expected pace. Signs of business activity contraction are unfavorable for the Euro. Additionally, uncertainty over the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Vatican City has also weighed on the Euro. On Wednesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump ruled out hopes of a ceasefire after stating in a private conference call with European leaders that Russian leader Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. Diminishing hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine could keep the Euro on the backfoot.There is a notable shift in US President Trump’s stance on war in Ukraine from what he stated in a post on Truth.Social earlier this week, that both nations have agreed to immediate truce talks, and expressed confidence that both countries will focus on ending the war in Ukraine. However, Trump didn’t provide a timeframe for truce talks.Another reason behind the pressure on the Euro is the firm expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. ECB officials have signaled the need for further monetary policy expansion to offset downside risks to Eurozone inflation. "In order to be able to keep inflation at the target of 2%, [the ECB] may have to come below the natural rate in the range of 1.5% to 2%, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno said on Wednesday.On the global front, Bundesbank’s President Joachim Nagel has expressed confidence over progress in trade talks with the US, stating that Washington and Brussels have acknowledged that trade conflicts have no winners, on German Television at the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada, Reuters reported. "I also believe that the US side now understands some things better, and I am a little more confident than I perhaps was a few days ago,” Nagel said.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as Euro underperformsEUR/USD trades slightly lower on Thursday as the Euro (EUR) underperforms its peers after the release of weaker-than-expected PMI data for the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is also down, as fears of a widening fiscal crisis have raised concerns about the already high national debt. On Wednesday, the House Rules Committee, controlled by Republicans, approved President Donald Trump’s new tax bill and advanced it for a full House vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s tax-cut bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing concerns over large debt, which led to a sharp increase in borrowing costs for the administration.On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep arguing in favor of holding interest rates at their current level amid unusually elevated uncertainty over the US economic outlook due to President Trump's imposition of new economic policies.On Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon supported the Fed’s decision to maintain a restrictive interest rate guidance, warning of stagflation risks from geopolitics, deficits, and price pressures, Bloomberg reported. “The Fed is doing the right thing to wait and see before it decides on monetary policy,” Dimon said and added, "I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot."Meanwhile, investors await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for May, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1320EUR/USD oscillates inside Wednesday’s trading range around 1.1320 on Thursday. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1240.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:48 ECB’s Vujčić: Eurozone growth positive but low
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”Additional quotesI expect to get close to 2% target at the end of 2025.

I expect to reach the target in early 2026.Market reactionThese comments have little to no impact on the Euro, as EUR/USD remains 0.19% lower on the day near 1.1310, as of writing.

11:45 EUR: Another leg higher in EUR/USD may be inevitable – ING
European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. A move to 1.150 in EUR/USD seems to be premature"Markets might also be partly factoring in last week’s unexpected Reuters report that the European Central Bank has asked banks to stress test their USD funding needs amid concerns the Federal Reserve could restrict access to emergency USD swap lines. While this scenario appears somewhat unlikely, should the risk be deemed credible, it could prompt even faster diversification away from the dollar.""We generally deem c given the lack of hard evidence on the economic damage in the US from tariffs. To be sure, if the G7 summit fails to offer signs of trade de-escalation, and above all, Treasury markets remain under pressure, another leg higher in EUR/USD would be inevitable."

11:45 EUR/JPY declines below 162.00, Eurozone PMI declines unexpectedly
The EUR/JPY pair trades 0.5% lower near 162.00 during European trading hours on Thursday. Investors brace for more weakness in the pair as preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has surprisingly declined in May.

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Investors brace for more weakness in the pair as preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has surprisingly declined in May.The report showed that the Composite PMI declined to 49.4. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the business activity. Economists expected the Composite PMI to come in higher at 50.7 from 50.4 in April. The notable decline in the Composite PMI came from contraction in activities in the services sector. The Services PMI surprisingly declined to 48.9.According to the PMI report, the overall business activity in the Eurozone economy declined as Germany joined France in contraction territory.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board as mounting concerns over the United States' (US) fiscal imbalances have increased its safe-haven demand. Domestically, firm expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also kept the Yen on the frontfoot. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.04% -0.26% 0.04% -0.14% 0.22% 0.08% EUR -0.16% -0.12% -0.42% -0.12% -0.30% 0.06% -0.07% GBP -0.04% 0.12% -0.31% 0.00% -0.17% 0.17% 0.04% JPY 0.26% 0.42% 0.31% 0.29% 0.13% 0.46% 0.32% CAD -0.04% 0.12% -0.00% -0.29% -0.17% 0.17% 0.04% AUD 0.14% 0.30% 0.17% -0.13% 0.17% 0.36% 0.21% NZD -0.22% -0.06% -0.17% -0.46% -0.17% -0.36% -0.14% CHF -0.08% 0.07% -0.04% -0.32% -0.04% -0.21% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier this week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida expressed confidence that inflation in Japan will likely re-accelerate after a period of slowdown, a scenario that will keep hopes of interest rate hikes alive.On the global front, investors await trade talks between Tokyo and Washington, which are scheduled over the weekend. Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is scheduled to visit Washington for trade discussions. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:43 RBA’s Hauser: Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, “Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand.”

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI rebounds to 50.2 in May vs. 50 expected
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.

UK Services PMI recovered to 50.2 in May, beating expectations.Manufacturing PMI in the UK dropped to 45.1 in May.GBP/USD holds minor gains above 1.3400 after UK business PMIs.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.Meanwhile, the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index jumped to 50.2 in May versus April’s 49 while bettering the expected 50 figure.FX implicationsMixed UK PMIs fail to inspire the Pound Sterling, as GBP/USD adds 0.04% on the day at 1.3425, as of writing.

11:32 AUD/JPY falls below 92.50, further downside appears due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikes
AUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)

11:04 German IFO Business Climate Index climbs to 87.5 in May vs. 87.4 expected
The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 87.5 in May from 86.9 in April. The data came in slightly above the market forecast of 87.4.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)
Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4 in May vs. 49.3 expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in May, beating the 49.3 forecast.Bloc’s Services PMI dropped to 48.9 in May vs. 50.3 estimate.EUR/USD holds losses above 1.1300 after German, Eurozone PMI data. The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.
developing story ...

11:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)
Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to show modest US economic slowdown in May
S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global advanced April PMIs are expected to show a slight dip in the manufacturing sector.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September by 25 bps.EUR/USD keeps the trade in the area of three-year highs past 1.1500.S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.The report comprises three measures — the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI (a weighted blend of the two) — each calibrated so that readings above 50 denote expansion and those below 50 signal contraction. Published well ahead of many official statistics, these monthly snapshots assess everything from output and export trends to capacity utilization, employment and inventory levels, and are largely seen as reliable leading economic indicators.In April, the Composite PMI edged lower to 50.6 from 51.2 in March, pointing to a loss of growth momentum in the private sector’s economic activity. In this period, the Services PMI declined to 50.8 from 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 from 50.7. Assessing the survey’s findings, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that PMI data for April highlighted a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook. “At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise,” Williamson added. What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?Market expectations suggest that PMI readings in May will change a little. The Services PMI is forecast to hold steady at 50.8 and Manufacturing PMI is seen ticking down to 50.1 from 50.2. Previewing the PMI data, analysts at TD Securities said: “The flash PMIs for May might reflect some optimism in their responses following the recent trade-war détente between the US and China.”“Note that the survey is conducted during the two middle weeks of the month. With that said, while we are projecting an increase in the services index to 52.0, we look for a decline in the Manufacturing PMI to contraction territory,” analysts added. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Thu May 22, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 50.6 Source: S&P Global When will the March flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Thursday at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show a marginal expansion in the US private sector’s business activity.In case both PMIs come in above 52, the immediate market reaction could boost the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure if PMIs drop below 50 in May.The underlying details of the PMI surveys could drive the USD’s valuation if headline readings arrive close to market estimates. In case the publication hints at a strengthening input inflation, investors could see that as a sign pointing to a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy hold in the upcoming meetings, or a hawkish revision to the interest rate projections in June’s revised Summary of Projections. In this scenario, the USD is likely to outperform its rivals in the near term. On the flip side, the USD could struggle to find demand and help EUR/USD push higher if the survey highlights a significant reduction in the private sector’s payrolls.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shared a brief overview of EUR/USD’s short-term technical outlook:“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbs toward 60 after spending the previous week below 50, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD closed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average for the first time in two weeks on Tuesday.”“On the upside, 1.1500 (static level, end-point of the January-April uptrend) aligns as a strong resistance level before 1.1575 (April 21 high) and 1.1670 (static level from October 2021). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.1200 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the uptrend), 1.1120 (50-day SMA) and 1.1015-1.1000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, round level).” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:55 US Dollar Index stays above 99.50 ahead of PMI data, voting on Trump tax cut bill
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, holds gains after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 48.8 in May vs. 48.9 expected
The German manufacturing sector activity picked up and the services sector deepened its contraction in May, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)
Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May
Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May

10:26 Forex Today: Attention turns to May PMI data from major economies
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 22:

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The US economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and April Existing Home Sales data, and officials from major central banks will be delivering speeches later in the day. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.17% -1.02% -1.38% -0.79% -0.58% -0.72% -1.33% EUR 1.17% 0.13% -0.16% 0.45% 0.72% 0.52% -0.16% GBP 1.02% -0.13% -0.60% 0.32% 0.59% 0.39% -0.29% JPY 1.38% 0.16% 0.60% 0.61% 0.97% 0.88% 0.10% CAD 0.79% -0.45% -0.32% -0.61% 0.23% 0.07% -0.61% AUD 0.58% -0.72% -0.59% -0.97% -0.23% -0.20% -0.86% NZD 0.72% -0.52% -0.39% -0.88% -0.07% 0.20% -0.68% CHF 1.33% 0.16% 0.29% -0.10% 0.61% 0.86% 0.68% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). During the Asian trading hours on Thursday, the House Rules Committee approved US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill. A full house floor vote on the bill is expected following a debate later in the day. Meanwhile, US Treasury bond yields shot higher late Wednesday after the weak demand seen in the 20-year note auction. The benchmark 10-year US yield rose more than 2.5% on Wednesday and reached its highest level since February above 4.6%. After closing in the negative territory for three consecutive days, the US Dollar Index fluctuates in a tight channel above 99.50.EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1300 in the European morning on Thursday. Later in the session, the European Central Bank will release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. GBP/USD climbed to its highest level in more than three years at 1.3470 on Wednesday but erased a portion of its daily gains in the American trading hours. The pair fluctuates in a narrow band slightly above 1.3400 to start the European session.Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday that they did not discuss foreign exchange levels at the finance ministers' meeting. USD/JPY remains in a downtrend and trades in negative territory below 143.50.Gold gathered bullish momentum and rose above $3,300 on Wednesday. XAU/USD holds its ground and trades near $3,330 in the European morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told European leaders earlier in the week that that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May
France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)
France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)

10:07 USD/CHF extends downside to near 0.8250, US PMI data in focus
The USD/CHF pair extends the decline to around 0.8250 during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to US fiscal concerns. Traders will take more cues from the advanced US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May
France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.60 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.23.

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April

08:52 BoJ’s Noguchi: Recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have impact on our new bond taper plan
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have an impact on our new bond taper plan to be decided in June.”

08:43 FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1175 2.1b1.1315 1b1.1400 751mGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3260 778m1.3395 456mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.50 601mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8525 598mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6100 204m0.6700 286mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3700 659m1.4050 1.4b

08:40 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 162.35 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid the growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again this year.

08:39 EUR/GBP remains below 0.8450, moves little ahead of PMI data from both economies
EUR/GBP posts little losses after registering gains in the previous three consecutive days. The currency cross trades lower at around 0.8440 during Thursday’s Asian hours.

08:26 USD/CAD trades with negative bias around mid-1.3800s, just above two-week low
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3815-1.3810 region, or a two-week low, and trades with a negative bias for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.

07:50 NZD/USD keeps the red above 0.5900 after NZ budget, downside seems cushioned
The NZD/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 0.5965-0.5670 area, or a one-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD posts monthly highs above $32.50 due to safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises to near $32.60 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, gaining ground for the third successive session. Precious metals, including Silver, attract buyers amid rising safe-haven demand over growing fiscal concerns in the United States (US).

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,187.63 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,130.41 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 107,165.40 per tola from INR 106,495.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,187.63 10 Grams 91,874.77 Tola 107,165.40 Troy Ounce 285,766.50 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price buying remains unabated amid safe-haven demand, weaker USD The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives Rules Committee voted to advance President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, setting the stage for a vote on the House floor. The highly anticipated “One Big, Beautiful Bill” could add around $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the country’s already hefty debt pile. Furthermore, a crucial auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday saw soft demand, pointing to growing worries that the tax and spending bill will worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected. This comes after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from the top "Aaa" last Friday. The US Dollar has been trending lower on the back of US fiscal concerns. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year amid evidence of easing inflation and a dismal growth forecast continue to push the USD lower, lifting the non-yielding Gold price to a nearly two-week high on Thursday. Meanwhile, China accused the US of abusing export control measures and violating Geneva trade agreements after the US issued guidance warning companies not to use Huawei's Ascend AI chips. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ On the geopolitical front, Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip and block desperately needed food aid. Adding to this, Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning, which lends additional support to the safe-haven commodity. Traders now look to the release of flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health. The US economic docket also features the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, which might influence the USD. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the precious metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:16 Gold price hits two-week high as USD declines on deteriorating US fiscal outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday. Investors remain on edge following the US sovereign credit rating downgrade by Moody’s and growing worries about rising US deficit on the back of US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax bill. Moreover, renewed US-China trade tensions, along with geopolitical risks, hit the global risk sentiment and continue to benefit the safe-haven precious metal.Meanwhile, a poor response to the 20-year US bond auction reinforced the view that market participants are shying away from US assets. Apart from this, the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 amid easing inflationary pressures and a sluggish economic growth outlook contributes to the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias. This turns out to be another factor driving flows towards the non-yielding Gold price and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price buying remains unabated amid safe-haven demand, weaker USDThe Republican-controlled US House of Representatives Rules Committee voted to advance President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, setting the stage for a vote on the House floor. The highly anticipated “One Big, Beautiful Bill” could add around $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the country’s already hefty debt pile.Furthermore, a crucial auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday saw soft demand, pointing to growing worries that the tax and spending bill will worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected. This comes after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from the top "Aaa" last Friday.The US Dollar has been trending lower on the back of US fiscal concerns. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year amid evidence of easing inflation and a dismal growth forecast continue to push the USD lower, lifting the non-yielding Gold price to a nearly two-week high on Thursday.Meanwhile, China accused the US of abusing export control measures and violating Geneva trade agreements after the US issued guidance warning companies not to use Huawei's Ascend AI chips. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ On the geopolitical front, Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip and block desperately needed food aid. Adding to this, Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning, which lends additional support to the safe-haven commodity. Traders now look to the release of flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health. The US economic docket also features the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, which might influence the USD. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the precious metal. Gold price seems poised to reclaim the $3,400 markFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak. This comes on the back of this week's breakout through the $3,250-3,255 resistance zone and favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, a subsequent move towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,363-3,365 region, en route to the $3,400 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility.On the flip side, the $3,316-3,315 area, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,300 mark. Any further decline below the $3,285 area is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $3,255-3,250 hurdle-turned-support. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $3,200 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:58 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday “ the US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting.”

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday “ the US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting.”Additional commentsReaffirmed that forex should be determined by the market.Do not believe that there is any gap in understanding with the US.Finance Minister Kato agreed with Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets.Market reaction

06:47 EUR/USD hovers near 1.1350, two-week highs ahead of HCOB PMI for Eurozone
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1340, close to two-week highs during the Asian trading hours. The Euro (EUR) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session ahead of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone, scheduled to be released later in the day.

06:26 USD/INR softens ahead of Indian/US PMI releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Thursday. The strength in Asian peers, a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower crude oil prices provide some support to the Indian currency. Furthermore, a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India might contribute to the INR’s upside.

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The preliminary Indian HSBC PMI and US S&P PMI reports for May will be the spotlights later on Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Thursday. The strength in Asian peers, a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower crude oil prices provide some support to the Indian currency. Furthermore, a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India might contribute to the INR’s upside. Nonetheless, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will deliver a rate cut in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting might undermine the local currency. Investors will closely watch the preliminary reading of India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, which is due later on Thursday. On the US docket, the advanced S&P PMI for May, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales reports will be published. Indian Rupee strengthens as a softer US Dollar caps declineIndia’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that India and the US may finalise the first phase of the India-US trade deal before July.The RBI monthly bulletin released in May stated that the global growth outlook remains fragile despite the US having paused tariffs. The RBI added that heightened policy uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment weighed on the outlook.Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday that India is well-positioned to deal with the negative effects of US tariffs and global trade disruptions, as domestic growth drivers and low dependence on exports anchor the economy.House Speaker Mike Johnson said that Trump met with House Republicans on Tuesday and failed to convince his party's holdouts to back his sweeping tax bill. Republican hardliners continue to argue the bill does not sufficiently cut spending.Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated in speeches this week that the US central bank is unlikely to lower its key fed funds rate at its two meetings this summer. Markets have priced in nearly a 71% chance that the Fed would keep its interest rates steady through its next two meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee strengthens on the day. The USD/INR pair maintains a bearish tone on the daily timeframe, with the price remaining capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. This indicates the neutral momentum in the near term, suggesting that further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out. The low of May 19 at 85.34 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Any follow-through selling below this level could see a drop to the 85.00 psychological level, followed by 84.61, the low of May 12. On the other hand, the crucial resistance level to watch is the 100-day EMA at 85.60. A decisive break above the mentioned level could potentially lift the pair back up to 85.85, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:59 GBP/USD rises to near 1.3450 ahead of UK PMI data
GBP/USD trades higher for the fourth successive day with trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:40 Japanese Yen advances to fresh two-week highs against a weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) regained positive traction following an early Asian session slide in reaction to Japan's upbeat Machinery Orders data, which countered recession fears and boosted hopes for an economic recovery.

05:27 Trump told EU heads in private Putin isn’t ready to end war – WSJ
Citing three people familiar with the conversation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Tuesday that “On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning.”

Citing three people familiar with the conversation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Tuesday that “On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning.”Additional pointsTrump shifted from suggesting sanctions to proposing lower-level talks at the Vatican between Russia and Ukraine.Europeans sought to clarify Putin’s stance for Trump, underscoring their need to support Ukraine.

05:19 New Zealand boosts bond program by NZ$4 billion over four years
New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis presents the nation’s Budget on Thursday, with the key highlights noted below.

New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis presents the nation’s Budget on Thursday, with the key highlights noted below.NZ sees 2024/25 operating surplus before gains, losses NZ$-14.74 bln (HYEFU NZ$-17.32bln).NZ sees 2025/26 OBEGAL surplus/deficit NZ$-15.60 bln (HYEFU NZ$-14.10bln).NZ sees 2024/25 net debt 42.7% of GDP (HYEFU 45.1%).NZ 2024/25 cash balance NZ$-9.99 bln (HYEFU NZ$-16.61bln).NZ sees 2024/25 GDP -0.8% (HYEFU +0.5%).Govt does not forecast OBEGAL surplus in next five fiscal years.Trade tariffs to impact pace of economic recovery.NZ inflation forecast to remain within target band of 1% to 3% over next five years.NZ GDP forecast growing 2.9% in 2025/26, 3.0% in 2026/27.

04:55 WTI slumps to near $61.00, traders await fresh round of nuclear talks between US and Iran
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.10 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower on the report that a fresh round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran would take place later this week.

04:51 BoJ’s Noguchi: Japan’s economy is growing steadily
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the Japanese economy is growing steadily. Noguchi further stated that the central bank is likely to keep adjusting the policy rate, while carefully assessing whether underlying inflation would be stabilising around 2%.

04:49 Australian Dollar holds ground following release of S&P PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair maintains its position following the release of the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains stronger as the US Dollar weakens on Thursday.Australia’s Manufacturing PMI remains steady at 51.7 in May, meanwhile, Services PMI declines to 50.5.Fed officials noted that a decline in consumer and corporate confidence is attributed to US trade policy change.The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair maintains its position following the release of the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.Australia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 51.7 in May versus 51.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI declines to 50.5 in May from the previous reading of 51.0, while the Composite PMI eases to 50.6 in May versus 51.0 prior.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points on Tuesday. Moreover, RBA Governor Michele Bullock supported the central bank's rate cut decision. Bulock noted that curbing inflation is important and expressed that a rate cut was a proactive, confidence-boosting move that was suitable given the state of the economy. She also mentioned that the Board is prepared to take additional action if necessary, raising the prospect of future changes.Australian Dollar maintains position as US Dollar continues to weakenThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the fourth successive session and trading lower at around 99.50 at the time of writing.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly both voiced rising concerns about the US economy during a panel event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Despite the fact that important economic indicators are still strong, both officials noted a decline in consumer and corporate confidence and partially blamed the change in opinion on US trade policies.On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expanded on remarks he made the previous day. Bostic warned that the inconsistent and shifting tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration risk disrupting US trade logistics, which are heavily dependent on large-scale imports to satisfy domestic demand.The US Dollar struggles after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.Economic data released last week pointed to easing inflation, as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) signaled a deceleration in price pressures. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts in 2025, contributing to further weakness in the US Dollar. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have deepened concerns over an extended period of sluggish economic growth.On Wednesday, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ Chinese authorities are looking further into whether the United States is serious about correcting its erroneous practices.The PBoC announced a reduction in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was lowered from 3.10% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was reduced from 3.60% to 3.50%.The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump intends to implement tariffs at previously threatened levels on trading partners that do not engage in negotiations “in good faith.”The AUD was also affected by Australia's political unrest. Following the National Party's withdrawal from its collaboration with the Liberal Party, the opposition coalition disbanded. The ruling Labor Party, meanwhile, took advantage of the unrest and retook power with a more robust and expansive agenda.Australian Dollar remains within a confined range despite a bullish biasThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6440 on Thursday. The daily technical indicators reflect a bullish tone as the pair maintains its position above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the neutral 50 level, both supporting persistent upward momentum.The immediate resistance appears at the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A decisive break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the seven-month high at 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024.On the downside, the nine-day EMA of 0.6427 acts as an immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6367. Further depreciation would undermine the short- to medium-term bullish outlook, possibly opening the path toward the March 2020 low of 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% -0.02% -0.22% 0.00% 0.09% 0.23% -0.05% EUR 0.00% -0.01% -0.21% 0.00% 0.10% 0.24% -0.05% GBP 0.02% 0.01% -0.23% 0.02% 0.13% 0.24% -0.03% JPY 0.22% 0.21% 0.23% 0.23% 0.33% 0.43% 0.15% CAD -0.00% -0.00% -0.02% -0.23% 0.11% 0.23% -0.05% AUD -0.09% -0.10% -0.13% -0.33% -0.11% 0.13% -0.16% NZD -0.23% -0.24% -0.24% -0.43% -0.23% -0.13% -0.29% CHF 0.05% 0.05% 0.03% -0.15% 0.05% 0.16% 0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Wed May 21, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: 51.7 Source: S&P Global the

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1903 vs. 7.1937 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1903 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1937 and 7.2009 Reuters estimate.

03:43 USD/CAD extends the decline to near 1.3850 amid weaker US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to around 1.3855 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4

03:01 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q

03:00 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March
Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B

02:37 Japan’s Kato says unsustainable imbalance in some countries behind trade imbalance
US Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato discussed important issues pertaining to the US-Japan economic relationship, including global security and the ongoing bilateral trade discussions between the US and Japan.

02:19 NZD/USD weakens below 0.5950, budget bill concerns might cap its downside
The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5930 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the downside for the pair might be limited amid rising concerns over the US President Donald Trump administration's tax cut and spending bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.

02:12 EUR/USD rises for a third straight day as Greenback weakness takes hold
EUR/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, breaking through the 1.1300 technical barrier and climbing for a third straight session after market sentiment turned away from the US Dollar following a pummeling of US Treasury markets.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD broke above the 1.1300 handle on Wednesday.Markets soured on the US Dollar after Treasury yields rose and bond demand fell.PMI double-header on the cards for Thursday as business survey results land on both sides of the Pacific.EUR/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, breaking through the 1.1300 technical barrier and climbing for a third straight session after market sentiment turned away from the US Dollar following a pummeling of US Treasury markets. Treasury yields rose and demand for 20-year Treasury bonds fell in a mid-session bond auction, prompting a general pullout from US assets, including the Greenback, which is generally considered a safe haven.US 20-year Treasury yields rose above 5% on Wednesday, sparking a flight out of US capital assets. Even with the rise in yields, investors still turned apprehensive on Treasuries, with bid-to-cover ratios falling below their six-month averages. The US government is on pace to pass President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for the federal government’s tax and budget plans, which includes steep declines in critical services spending, and even steeper declines in federal tax receipts. The budget bill is broadly expected to add up to $4T to the US deficit over the next ten years. President Trump campaigned on reducing the deficit and eliminating US government debt.Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due on Thursday. Pan-European PMIs are expected to rise slightly across the board, while US PMIs are forecast to come mixed. European Services PMI aggregate survey results are expected to rise to 50.3 from 50.1, while the manufacturing segment is expected to improve to 49.3 from 49.0. On the US side, Manufacturing PMIs are expected to tick down to 50.1 from 50.2, while the Services component is seen holding flat at 50.8.EUR/USD price forecastBullish momentum continues to push EUR/USD higher following a technical bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1100. The pair has closed higher for all but two of the last seven consecutive trading sessions, and price action is tilted firmly to the bullish side as intraday price action looks for a foothold from 1.1300.Technical oscillators are nearly out of room to run, implying a technical reversal could be on the cards in the near-term. However, Fiber is still trading well north of its 200-day EMA near 1.0840.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:12 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.7 in May, Services PMI eases to 50.5
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.7 in May versus 51.7 prior, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

02:02 Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51
Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51

02:02 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51

01:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds near $33.50 as US debt fears fuels haven demand
Silver price extended its rally to three days on Wednesday, edging up 0.21% as the Greenback continued to weaken across the board. Moody’s downgrade to US sovereign debt and the vote of the US fiscal budget, keeps investors seeking safety in the precious metal.

00:22 US yields spike as 20-year auction flops, budget vote looms
US Treasury yields soared on Wednesday as a weaker-than-expected 20-year US bond auction ahead of the vote on the US budget in the US Congress. At the time of writing, the US 10-year T-note benchmark note surges 11 basis points at 4.601%.

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12:16 The wonderfully normal Bank of England – Commerzbank Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based.

11:58 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251% Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%

11:57 GBP: EUR/GBP drop delayed – ING April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:48 ECB’s Vujčić: Eurozone growth positive but low European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”

11:45 EUR: Another leg higher in EUR/USD may be inevitable – ING European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:43 RBA’s Hauser: Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, “Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand.”

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI rebounds to 50.2 in May vs. 50 expected The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.

11:32 AUD/JPY falls below 92.50, further downside appears due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikes AUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1) United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2) United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)

11:04 German IFO Business Climate Index climbs to 87.5 in May vs. 87.4 expected The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 87.5 in May from 86.9 in April. The data came in slightly above the market forecast of 87.4.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9) Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4 in May vs. 49.3 expected The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

11:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5) Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9) Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4) Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to show modest US economic slowdown in May S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.

10:55 US Dollar Index stays above 99.50 ahead of PMI data, voting on Trump tax cut bill The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, holds gains after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 48.8 in May vs. 48.9 expected The German manufacturing sector activity picked up and the services sector deepened its contraction in May, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2) Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May

10:26 Forex Today: Attention turns to May PMI data from major economies Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 22:

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4) France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.60 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.23.

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April

08:52 BoJ’s Noguchi: Recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have impact on our new bond taper plan Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have an impact on our new bond taper plan to be decided in June.”

08:43 FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:39 EUR/GBP remains below 0.8450, moves little ahead of PMI data from both economies EUR/GBP posts little losses after registering gains in the previous three consecutive days. The currency cross trades lower at around 0.8440 during Thursday’s Asian hours.

08:26 USD/CAD trades with negative bias around mid-1.3800s, just above two-week low The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3815-1.3810 region, or a two-week low, and trades with a negative bias for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.

07:50 NZD/USD keeps the red above 0.5900 after NZ budget, downside seems cushioned The NZD/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 0.5965-0.5670 area, or a one-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:16 Gold price hits two-week high as USD declines on deteriorating US fiscal outlook Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday.

06:58 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday “ the US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting.”

05:59 GBP/USD rises to near 1.3450 ahead of UK PMI data GBP/USD trades higher for the fourth successive day with trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:40 Japanese Yen advances to fresh two-week highs against a weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) regained positive traction following an early Asian session slide in reaction to Japan's upbeat Machinery Orders data, which countered recession fears and boosted hopes for an economic recovery.

05:19 New Zealand boosts bond program by NZ$4 billion over four years New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis presents the nation’s Budget on Thursday, with the key highlights noted below.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1903 vs. 7.1937 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1903 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1937 and 7.2009 Reuters estimate.

03:43 USD/CAD extends the decline to near 1.3850 amid weaker US Dollar The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to around 1.3855 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4

03:01 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q

03:00 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B

02:02 Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51 Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51

02:02 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51

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