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22:21 Dow Jones Industrial Average hesitates on Thursday after key earnings misses
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled on Thursday, consolidating just below the 45,000 handle as earnings blunders drag down key overweighted stocks listed on the Dow Jones.

21:57 WTI Crude rallies despite Chevron’s return to Venezuela shifting supply outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is attempting a breakout as traders weigh conflicting signals from supply and demand.

21:54 New Zealand Dollar eases from two-week high as RBNZ flags growth risks, Trump-Fed meeting eyed
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eases slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier in the day. The move snaps a two-day winning streak for the Kiwi as the Greenback finds stability following a volatile start to the week.

NZD/USD retreats from two-week high, snaps a two-day winning streak as US Dollar steadies.US Manufacturing PMI dips into contraction, while Services and Composite readings improve.RBNZ’s Conway warns tariffs are a “negative demand shock,” underscoring the central bank’s dovish monetary policy outlook.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eases slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier in the day. The move snaps a two-day winning streak for the Kiwi as the Greenback finds stability following a volatile start to the week. Trade optimism continues to underpin broader market sentiment, limiting the downside for risk-sensitive currencies, such as the NZD.The NZD/USD pair is ticking lower, hovering around 0.6040 at the time of writing after rising to a two-week high of 0.6059 earlier in the session. The intraday pullback reflects mild profit-taking, with gains capped by expectations of further policy easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid soft inflation and global trade uncertainty.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is stabilizing near a two-week low. The US Dollar is drawing modest support from stronger-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims and a mixed set of PMI data. While the manufacturing sector slipped deeper into contraction, the services sector surprised to the upside. The divergence between weak manufacturing activity and robust services growth helped lift the Composite PMI, suggesting that overall private sector activity remains on a firm footing. The data offered the US Dollar some near-term relief following a turbulent week, though policy and political uncertainty continue to cap gains.At the time of writing, the index is consolidating around 97.30 as investors brace for heightened political drama ahead of US President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to the Federal Reserve (Fed) at 20:00 GMT. The visit comes as the Fed enters its blackout period ahead of next week’s policy decision, intensifying concerns over political interference and the central bank’s independence.Back in New Zealand, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway delivered a cautious yet forward-leaning assessment of the country’s economic outlook in a speech on Thursday, highlighting that global trade tensions, particularly US tariffs, pose a downside risk to New Zealand’s inflation and growth trajectory. Conway noted that while some might expect tariffs to stoke inflation, in New Zealand’s case, they are more likely to act as a “negative demand shock” that softens price pressure. “In contrast to the US, where tariffs might temporarily lift prices, here in New Zealand, the more dominant effect is a weakening of global demand and lower import costs,” he said, adding that “this combination points to reduced medium-term inflation risks.”Conway also highlighted that ongoing trade uncertainty is “weighing heavily on business investment decisions and household spending intentions,” creating domestic headwinds. He reaffirmed the RBNZ’s readiness to ease policy further if inflation trends lower, stating the central bank has “ample room to cut the Official Cash Rate should conditions warrant it.” While inflation remains within the 1%-3% target band, Conway cautioned that “the economy is likely to operate below potential through mid-2026” unless global conditions improve. His remarks reinforce the RBNZ’s dovish bias with trade-driven disinflation and economic slack likely to keep further rate cuts on the table.

21:43 Forex Today: UK Retail Sales take centre stage alongside German business morale
The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and print decent gains on Thursday, always amid mixed results from the US docket, advancing US yields across the board, and recent progress on the trade front.

The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and print decent gains on Thursday, always amid mixed results from the US docket, advancing US yields across the board, and recent progress on the trade front.Here's what to watch on Friday, July 25:The US Dollar Index (DXY) set aside four daily retracements in a row and advanced modestly to the 97.50 zone as investors continued to gauge the recent encouraging developments from the trade front. A light US calendar will only feature Durable Goods Orders.EUR/USD treaded water around 1.1770 following the ECB’s steady hand and humble gains in the Greenback. Germany’s IFO Business Climate will take centre stage, seconded by the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and M3 Money Supply figures.GBP/USD saw its weekly rebound curtailed, revisiting the boundaries of the key 1.3500 zone after hitting new two-week highs around 1.3590 in early trade. The GfK Consumer Confidence is due, seconded by Car Production readings and Retail Sales.USD/JPY traded on a positive foot, briefly dipping below the 146.00 support to rebound to the proximity of 147.00 amid a firm performance. The Tokyo Inflation Rate will be released, seconded by weekly Fpreign Bond Investment prints and the final Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes.AUD/USD rose further north of the 0.6600 milestone, hitting new yearly highs, although that bull run fizzled out as the session drew to a close. Next on tap Down Under will be the release of the Inflation Rate on July 30.WTI prices bounced to four-day highs past the $66.00 mark per barrel following the improved sentiment on the trade front as well as the unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories.Gold remained on the defensive for the second day in a row amid further optimism surrounding trade developments and extra gains in US yields across the spectrum. Silver prices halted their upside momentum, easing from Wednesday’s tops near $39.50 per ounce.

20:44 Canadian Dollar snaps winning streak as US Dollar pares losses
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faltered on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak and giving back ground to the US Dollar (USD).

19:56 Australian Dollar trades near 2025 high as risk sentiment, resilient data boosts gains
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pulling back after hitting an eight-month high against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The pair reached a session high of 0.6625 before easing to trade near 0.6596 at the time of writing.

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The pair reached a session high of 0.6625 before easing to trade near 0.6596 at the time of writing. The retreat follows a strong rally driven by upbeat economic data and improving global risk sentiment. As the pair approached key resistance, profit-taking and fading momentum triggered the pullback.The rally was fueled by signs of economic resilience in Australia. The preliminary Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on Wednesday, rose to 53.6 in July, the highest in over two years. The index tracks activity in services and manufacturing, showing broad-based expansion. Strong domestic demand and a rebound in industrial output supported the result. The data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).AUD/USD rises on strong domestic data, steady RBA outlook, and shifting US Dollar dynamicsReinforcing this outlook, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that while rates remain on hold at 3.85%, Australia’s interest rate cycle may prove shallower than in other advanced economies. Her balanced message underscored the central bank’s commitment to reducing inflation without undermining employment, thereby strengthening investor confidence in the AUD’s fundamental backdrop.Her balanced message emphasized the need for inflation control without significantly harming the labor market, thereby bolstering confidence in the currency's long-term fundamentals.US data released Thursday also reflected economic resiliency. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 217,000, below forecasts, suggesting that the labour market remains robust. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 54.6, the fastest pace in over a year, despite a disappointing Manufacturing PMI reading. While US economic data remains robust, the US Dollar has shown signs of fatigue amid growing political scrutiny of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing expectations that rates will be lowered this year.This environment has narrowed the interest rate differential with the AUD, making it more attractive to investors seeking returns.Externally, global risk sentiment has improved, particularly as concerns around major trade disputes have eased.AUD/USD bulls take a breather as triangle resistance caps gains at YTD highAUD/USD is retreating after failing to hold above the key resistance zone near 0.6600–0.6625. This area includes the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern and marks the highest level since November 2024. The pullback suggests hesitation from buyers as momentum slows.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased slightly, now hovering around 59, showing that while bullish momentum remains, it's losing steam. A break below immediate support at 0.6550, a prior breakout level and near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-April decline, could open the way to 0.6500, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (SMA) and lower channel support converge.On the upside, a decisive close above 0.6625 would confirm a breakout from the rising wedge and could trigger a move toward the next resistance at 0.6722, the November 2024 high. Until then, consolidation or a deeper pullback remains possible if risk appetite softens.Technically, AUD/USD is trading within a rising channel and recently bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6550, maintaining a bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 59, indicating strong buying interest without overbought conditions. Additionally, the presence of a Golden Cross — where the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA — continues to support a bullish medium-term outlook.Key levels to monitor include resistance at 0.6600, which coincides with a psychological and structural barrier, and a higher target at 0.6722, the November 2024 high. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6550, with further backing from the 50-day EMA and the lower boundary of the rising channel near 0.6498. A decisive break above 0.6600 would open the door for a move toward 0.6722, while failure to hold above support could trigger a deeper pullback. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

19:22 Sources suggest ECB policymakers lean toward rate hold as tariff risks cloud outlook
Sources revealed that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expect to keep rates unchanged, unless they see a deterioration in growth and inflation resumes its downward path, as two sources told Reuters.

19:09 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD eases as risk-on mood caps safe-haven flows
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower on Thursday after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.53 on Wednesday, as improving global trade sentiment boosted risk appetite and dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets like precious metals.

18:35 United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 4.23% to 4.245%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 4.23% to 4.245%

18:29 GBP/USD retreats from 1.3600 on strong US jobs data
The GBP/USD rally stalls as the Greenback stages a recovery, pushing the pair down over 0.24% after registering three straight days of gains that fell short of cracking the 1.3600 figure.

18:01 United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell from previous 5 to -3 in July
United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell from previous 5 to -3 in July

17:53 UK autumn budget to test Reeves' fiscal resolve – Standard Chartered
Limited options ahead of UK’s autumn budget given tight borrowing headroom and political pressures. Government likely wants to wait for accurate OBR estimates as well as economic and political developments before committing to fiscal plans.

Limited options ahead of UK’s autumn budget given tight borrowing headroom and political pressures. Government likely wants to wait for accurate OBR estimates as well as economic and political developments before committing to fiscal plans. Tax hikes seem likely as spending cuts are unpopular and Reeves has committed to narrow fiscal rules, Standard Chartered's economists report. Budget tight, optics tighter"The UK’s autumn budget – to be presented by Chancellor Reeves likely in either October or November – will be very closely watched. The government needs to shore up extremely narrow fiscal headroom, under pressure from skittish Gilt markets in a particularly tough economic and political environment. GDP growth contractions in April and May and higher borrowing costs have squeezed headroom; meanwhile, NATO commitments on defence and U-turns on planned spending cuts significantly limit fiscal-tightening opportunities.""Prime Minister Starmer recently quashed market rumours that Chancellor Reeves may be replaced in the near future, expressing confidence that she will remain in post “into the next election and for many years after”. If this is the case, Reeves’ role in the autumn will be to restore fiscal headroom – which looks on track to be negative – by adopting some combination of tax hikes, spending cuts, or fiscal rule changes. Given the unpopularity of significant spending cuts both among the public and Labour backbenchers, as well as Reeves’ unwavering commitment to meeting the fiscal rules she set out last October, tax rises appear highly likely.""The government explicitly ruled out hiking key taxes (including income tax, VAT, national insurance and corporation tax) in its 2024 manifesto but has recently walked back its once-forceful tone in favour of leaving as many options available as possible ahead of the autumn budget. We think that the government has yet to decide its fiscal path and will keep a watchful eye on UK economic indicators, as well as the OBR’s assessments of how far it might deviate from its fiscal targets, to inform its eventual decision."

17:38 Canadian Dollar eases against US Dollar after weak Retail Sales and mixed US PMI data
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback finds its footing after a volatile start to the week.

17:31 EUR/GBP rises as ECB holds rates steady, Eurozone PMIs stabilize, UK services falter
EUR/GBP is edging higher on Thursday as traders digest economic data from both regions and a measured tone from the European Central Bank (ECB).At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.8685, holding just below key resistance at 0.8738, as attention turns to diverging growth signals and c

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (28B) in July 18: Actual (23B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (28B) in July 18: Actual (23B)

17:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.65M) in June: Actual (0.627M)
United States New Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.65M) in June: Actual (0.627M)

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (52.5) in July
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (52.5) in July

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (53) in July: Actual (55.2)
United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (53) in July: Actual (55.2)

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 52.9 to 54.6 in July
United States S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 52.9 to 54.6 in July

16:28 Lagarde speech: If trade tensions resolved in short order, it would clear some uncertainty
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:26 EUR/USD little changed as ECB keeps interest rate steady, Lagarde highlights trade risks
The Euro (EUR) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.

16:17 Lagarde speech: Disinflationary or inflationary impact of tariffs can not yet be determined
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:09 Lagarde speech: We don't target exchange rate, we monitor
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $683.7B vs previous $685.3B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $683.7B vs previous $685.3B

15:57 Lagarde speech: Higher tariffs and stronger Euro to make it harder for firms to invest
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:41 US: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 217K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 217K for the week ending July 19.

15:40 US Dollar pauses after falling to two-week low amid trade optimism
The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather on Thursday after sliding to a two-week low on Wednesday as renewed optimism around global trade deals boosted market sentiment.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar steadies after a sharp midweek drop, with DXY holding above the key 97.00 support.Trade optimism lifts risk appetite following bilateral tariff deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines.US President Donald Trump to visit the Federal Reserve at 20:00 GMT, intensifying political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather on Thursday after sliding to a two-week low on Wednesday as renewed optimism around global trade deals boosted market sentiment. A breakthrough agreement between the US and Japan, along with hopes of a similar deal between Washington and Brussels, increased risk appetite and reduced safe-haven demand. Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence also weighed on sentiment. However, a mild technical correction following the recent sell-off is helping the Greenback stabilize.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is recovering modestly. At the time of writing, the index is trading around the 97.40 mark during Thursday's European trading hours, attempting to claw back some ground after a sharp midweek decline.On Wednesday, reports indicated that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) were making progress toward a trade agreement that could mirror the recently announced US-Japan deal. Diplomats said the agreement would set a 15% baseline tariff on most EU exports to the US, with exemptions for key sectors such as aircraft and medical devices. This marks a significant shift from earlier tensions, when the US threatened to impose tariffs as high as 30% on certain European exports. Still, strategic safeguards remain in place as Brussels prepares a €90-100 billion retaliatory tariff package targeting US goods if talks fail to succeed. With the August 1 deadline approaching and negotiations still underway, the market views this progress as a potential de-escalation in ongoing trade tensions.The US economic docket this Thursday will feature preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Initial Jobless Claims data, as S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are set for release at 13:45 GMT, followed by Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT. The market forecasts a stable manufacturing PMI of around 52.5 and a modest uptick in services to approximately 53. Analysts say strong PMI readings could reinforce expectations that the Fed will pause interest rate cuts, offering support to the US Dollar, while softer results might increase speculation of a more dovish Fed stance.Market movers: Global markets climb as tariff talks advance and Trump eyes the FedOn Wednesday, US President Donald Trump doubled down on his hardline trade stance, stating that future tariffs on US trading partners would range between 15% and 50%, depending on whether countries grant reciprocal market access. He made it clear that tariff cuts would only be offered to those who open up their markets to American goods and services. The comments followed a string of recently announced bilateral deals, including new 19% tariff agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines. The US president described both deals as “fair and historic,” signaling that more agreements could follow, potentially with the EU and India, ahead of the August 1 deadline.The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury held steady near 4.39% on Thursday, after rising in the previous session. This stability comes amid strong foreign investor demand, particularly from private overseas holders who collectively hold over $5 trillion in US debt, helping to anchor yields despite rising US fiscal deficits, inflation uncertainty and growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.Global stock markets moved higher across the board. The Nikkei 225 Index rallied 1.59% to close at 41,826 while the broader Topix Index jumped 1.75% to 2,978 on Thursday, while European indices also rallied, with the STOXX 50 climbing nearly 1% and the broader STOXX 600 advancing 0.6%. US stock futures turned positive, supported by upbeat trade headlines and anticipation ahead of major tech earnings releases.US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters at 20:00 GMT on Thursday, intensifying political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. The visit comes amid Trump’s continued criticism of high interest rates and scrutiny over the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project. Markets are watching closely, as the rare presidential appearance at the central bank raises fresh concerns about Fed independence and could stir volatility in the US Dollar and Bond markets.The European Central Bank left its Deposit Rate Facility unchanged at 2.00% on Thursday, in line with expectations, following seven straight cuts. According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the central bank will "follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining appropriate monetary policy stance," adding that the environment "remains exceptionally uncertain, especially because of trade disputes". Despite headline inflation stabilizing around the ECB’s 2% target, policymakers left the door open for a potential rate cut in September, contingent on evolving trade developments and economic data.Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings released Thursday highlighted diverging global trends. The Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.0, an 11-month high, while the UK’s slipped to 51.0, signaling a slowdown. In Asia, Australia posted a strong composite reading of 53.6, its best in over a year, driven by resilient service sector performance. Japan’s manufacturing fell into contraction at 48.8, offset by a stable services sector.Technical analysis: US Dollar Index retests falling wedge pattern, eyes on 97.00 supportThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of stabilization on Thursday after extending its recent slide from near four-week highs, with the index hovering around the 97.38 mark. Price action has slowed after breaking below a key support, now turned resistance, near 97.80-98.00, which closely aligns with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pullback remains contained above the psychological 97.00 handle, where the index has found some intraday support. The level also coincides with the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern that was decisively broken to the upside last week. This area is now serving as a retest zone and could offer short-term footing as traders reassess the broader trend.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding around 42.68, indicating a bearish bias but not yet oversold. This suggests there’s still room for further downside, though the pace of the decline appears to be slowing. The RSI has been trending lower since the rejection from the 99.00 psychological zone and now is attempting to flatten, hinting at possible consolidation or even a corrective bounce if support at 97.00 holds.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the 97.80-98.00 zone, which previously served as a key support level. A sustained move above this zone is needed to ease downside pressure and shift short-term momentum in favor of buyers. On the downside, if the 97.00 handle fails to hold, it would confirm a break below the wedge retest zone and expose the index to a deeper pullback toward 96.50, followed by the over three-year low near 96.30 marked on July 1. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.27% 0.32% 0.15% 0.14% -0.16% 0.00% 0.36% EUR -0.27% 0.07% -0.12% -0.11% -0.42% -0.26% 0.09% GBP -0.32% -0.07% -0.16% -0.18% -0.49% -0.33% 0.03% JPY -0.15% 0.12% 0.16% -0.02% -0.32% -0.21% 0.07% CAD -0.14% 0.11% 0.18% 0.02% -0.27% -0.15% 0.21% AUD 0.16% 0.42% 0.49% 0.32% 0.27% 0.15% 0.52% NZD -0.00% 0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.15% -0.15% 0.36% CHF -0.36% -0.09% -0.03% -0.07% -0.21% -0.52% -0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

15:31 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -0.3% in May from previous 3.4%
Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -0.3% in May from previous 3.4%

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.96M) in July 11: Actual (1.955M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.96M) in July 11: Actual (1.955M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 217K, below expectations (227K) in July 18
United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 217K, below expectations (227K) in July 18

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 224.5K (July 18) vs previous 229.5K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 224.5K (July 18) vs previous 229.5K

15:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in May
Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in May
Canada Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in May

15:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from previous -0.28 to -0.1 in June
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from previous -0.28 to -0.1 in June

15:19 Gold falls as risk appetite grows on prospects of a EU-US trade deal
Gold is extending losses for a second straight session on Thursday, pressured by a shift toward risk-on sentiment and a firmer US Dollar.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold awaits key US data as traders weigh economic performance and Fed outlook.Improved risk sentiment on EU-US trade progress puts pressure on Gold.XAU/USD loses grip on breakout, $3,372 turns into resistance ahead of key data.Gold is extending losses for a second straight session on Thursday, pressured by a shift toward risk-on sentiment and a firmer US Dollar.At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering above $3,360, retreating from recent highs near $3,457 on renewed hopes of an EU-US trade deal ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.Improved risk sentiment on EU-US trade progress pressures GoldSpeaking at an AI summit on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump commented on tariffs and trade. While Trump reiterated that countries would have a “simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” he also stated that negotiations with the EU were “serious”.But risk appetite improved when Trump announced that, “If they agree to open up the union to American businesses, then we will let them pay a lower tariff.”German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also echoed optimism ahead of meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron in Brussels on Wednesday. Merz told reporters that, “We are hearing at this very moment that decisions may be forthcoming... We are meeting at a time that could not have been better.”The remarks hint at a more strategic and structured approach to trade, which has boosted investor optimism about the possibility of a deal. However, the European Union is still negotiating for key concessions, reportedly pushing for a baseline tariff of 15%. They are also seeking greater clarity on how sector-specific tariffs, such as those on pharmaceuticals, autos and semiconductors, would be applied. These sectors are considered critical to the EU economy, and Brussels is seeking assurances that they won’t face disproportionate penalties under any new US tariff regime.Gold daily digest market movers: Jobless Claims, PMIs, and Fed expectationsGold prices on Thursday may also react to a slate of fresh US economic data, which could influence interest rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the Gold Market.At 12:30 GMT, the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims figures will be released, offering insight into labor market conditions. This will be followed at 13:45 GMT by preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July, key forward-looking indicators of business activity. Finally, at 14:00 GMT, New Home Sales data for June will provide an update on the US housing market and whether pressures from high mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand.Jobless claims have surprised to the downside in recent weeks, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer. This trend supports US Treasury yields and the Greenback, both headwinds for non-yielding assets like Gold.This week, Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 227,000, slightly higher than the prior 221,000, potentially signaling early signs of labor market softness. However, confirmation through broader data would be needed to shift Fed expectations meaningfully.On the PMI front, Manufacturing is forecast to rise to 52.5 (from 52), while Services is seen at 53 (from 52.9), suggesting growing business confidence and economic momentum.The market is increasingly weighing the potential for a more stable global trade environment, which, coupled with resilient US economic data and the possibility of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates, may shift investor preference toward risk assets and US yields over Gold.Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers may boost dovish sentiment, supporting bullion.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD loses grip on breakout, $3,372 turns into resistance ahead of key dataGold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,363, extending losses after failing to hold gains above the key $3,400 level. The recent move has pushed the price below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-to-high move, which currently provides resistance at $3,372.This breakdown puts the spotlight on support at $3,338, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and prior triangle resistance intersect. A sustained move below this level would weaken the bullish structure and open the door toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,292, followed by $3,228 (50% Fibo level), both marking deeper correction zones.On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $3,372 to shift short-term momentum back toward $3,400 and then $3,457, the recent swing high. A close above those levels would revive prospects for a move toward the April record high near $3,500.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 continues to signal neutral momentum, suggesting Gold is consolidating ahead of critical macro data. Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.15%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.15%)

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.15% below forecasts (0.27%) in July
Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.15% below forecasts (0.27%) in July

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.15%, below expectations (0.21%) in July
Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.15%, below expectations (0.21%) in July

14:42 RBNZ’s Conway: Global uncertainty may ease inflation – BBH
NZD/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains around 0.6050. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway maintained a dovish tone, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains around 0.6050. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway maintained a dovish tone, BBH FX analysts report. Scope for further OCR cuts"Conway warned that 'Global tariffs and economic uncertainty are likely to mean less inflation pressures in New Zealand and a pullback in business investment and household spending.' Importantly, Conway reaffirmed the bank’s view that it 'sees scope to lower the OCR further if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected'.""In our view, the RBNZ has one more cut in the pipeline. New Zealand inflation is within the target band and the policy rate is close to the RBNZ mid-point estimate of the neutral range between 2% and 4%. The swaps market price-in 86% probability of a 25bps RBNZ rate cut at the August 20 meeting." "Over the next 12 months, the swaps market price-in 40bps of easing and the policy rate to bottom between 2.75% and 3.00%. Bottom line: there is room for New Zealand rate expectations to adjust higher in favor of NZD."

14:42 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slumps to near $3,360, fails to break triangle on upside
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades almost 0.7% lower around $3,360 during the European trading session on Thursday.

14:40 USD/CAD remains depressed near 1.3600 ahead of US PMI, Jobless Claims data
The US Dollar is ticking higher against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday and has risen above 1.3600, although it remains close to one-year lows at the 1.3540 area, driven by risk-on markets, following the release of US preliminary PMIs and weekly Jobless Claims data.

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The US Dollar remains weighed near lows on risk-on markets.Investors are celebrating an imminent trade deal with the E,U which would bring more clarity to the global trade outlook.Later today, US PMIs and Jobless Claims, and Canada’s Retail Sales will provide further fundamental guidance.The US Dollar is ticking higher against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday and has risen above 1.3600, although it remains close to one-year lows at the 1.3540 area, driven by risk-on markets, following the release of US preliminary PMIs and weekly Jobless Claims data.
News of advances in a EU-US trade deal, which would include 15% tariffs and exemptions for automobiles, medical equipment, and alcohol, has boosted the market mood in Asia and Europe, keeping the safe-haven US Dollar on the defensive.

This news follows a trade deal with Japan and another with the Philippines and Indonesia on Wednesday, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent has announced a new round of talks with China for next week. Hopes that the worst of trade tariffs can be averted are boosting investors’ appetite for risk.US PMIs and Jobless Claims data in the spotlightIn the calendar today, US preliminary PMIs are expected to show that business economic activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors expanded in July, highlighting a strong economic momentum, yet with Jobless Claims increasing.Later today, President Trump is expected to visit the Federal Reserve amid a fierce campaign against Chairman Powell and only a few days ahead of July’s meeting. It is unclear whether the President will meet Powell, but there is the feeling that he will be increasing pressure on the bank to cut rates further.

In Canada, the focus will be on May’s Retail Sales figures, which are expected to have contracted, with the core reading, excluding automobiles, is falling for the third consecutive month. These numbers hint at further BoC monetary easing, and are unlikely to provide any significant support to the Loonie. Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 52.5 Previous: 52 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.9 Consensus: 53.1 Previous: 53.1 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) The Retail Sales ex Auto data, released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, measures the total value of goods sold by retailers in Canada excluding the key sector of motor vehicles and parts. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: -0.3% Previous: -0.3% Source: Statistics Canada

14:40 USD/JPY: Markets eye stronger services PMI into July 31 BoJ – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD), having faded its early Asian session gains driven by the release of a mixed set of PMI’s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD), having faded its early Asian session gains driven by the release of a mixed set of PMI’s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. JPY flat on the daily chart"Markets clearly celebrated the data with a specific focus on the surprise in services (53.5 vs. 51.7 prev.) as they ignored the weaker manufacturing (48.8 vs. 50.1 prev.) print. "The data should provide additional confidence to policymakers at the BoJ as they look to resume their policy tightening following the successful conclusion of US/Japan trade talks and the passing of last weekend’s upper house election. Interest rate differentials are offering the JPY support, as we note a continued narrowing in US-Japan spreads." "We look to near-term strength in the JPY as we approach the July 31 BoJ meeting. For USD/JPY, we look to near-term weakness and a decline toward the lower end of the recent range, at 142.00."

14:37 AUD/USD hits 11-month high on improved risk sentiment and robust PMI data – BBH
AUD/USD broke higher through key resistance level at 0.6600, reaching its highest level since August 2024.

AUD/USD broke higher through key resistance level at 0.6600, reaching its highest level since August 2024. Improved financial market risk sentiment from easing trade tensions, rising iron ore prices, and faster Australian private sector growth momentum underpin the rally in AUD, BBH FX analysts report. PMIs boost Aussie"Australia’s composite PMI increased to 53.6 vs. 51.6 in June, the highest since April 2022. The improvement was broad-based with faster service sector growth and a renewed expansion in manufacturing production.""Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stuck to the bank’s guidance for 'a measured and gradual approach' to monetary policy easing. Bullock brushed off Australia’s weak June labor force report noting that 'leading indicators are not pointing to further significant increases in the unemployment rate in the near term.' Bullock also warned that 'the monthly CPI Indicator data, which are volatile, suggest that the fall in trimmed mean inflation over Q2, due next week may not be quite as much as we forecast back in May.' The RBA forecasts trimmed inflation of 2.6% y/y in Q2 vs. 2.9% in Q1.""The RBA looks set to resume easing on August 12. RBA cash rate futures continue to fully price-in a 25bps cut in August and 75bps of total easing in the next 12 months."

14:34 GBP is underperforming due to PMI disappointment – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of CHF, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of CHF, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets focus on BoE "Disappointing preliminary PMI’s are weighing on the pound, specifically the softer services PMI (51.2 vs. 52.9 exp. & 52.8 prev.) as the manufacturing release offered a modest surprise (48.2 vs. 48.0 exp. & 47.7 prev.). The CBI sentiment figures were in line with expectations and market participants will be looking to Friday’s retail sales as the highlight of the week." "None of these data releases are likely to change the BoE’s thinking ahead of the August 7 policy decision, where the central bank is set to deliver a widely expected hold. The outlook remains dovish, with markets roughly pricing one additional 25bpt cut by year end." "The multi-month bull trend once again looks to be faltering. The RSI is close to neutral at 50 and the latest pullback has found near-term support around the 50 day MA (1.3529). We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3500 support and 1.3580 resistance."

14:31 USD/JPY rebounds above 146.00 as Japan's PMI steadies – BBH
USD/JPY recovered above 146.00 after testing a two-week low yesterday around 145.86, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY recovered above 146.00 after testing a two-week low yesterday around 145.86, BBH FX analysts report. BoJ rate hike odds limited"Japan private sector growth traction held steady in July. The composite PMI printed at 51.5 for as second consecutive month in July. The increase in service sector activity (53.5 in July vs. 51.7 in June) was offset by a contraction in manufacturing output (48.8 in July vs. 50.1 in June).""Japan’s swaps market still price-in 80% odds of a 25bps Bank of Japan rate hike to 0.75% in December. In the next two years, markets imply just 50bps of rate increases. In our view, the BOJ’s cautious normalization cycle limits JPY upside."

14:29 EUR: All eyes on ECB meeting – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Thursday’s NA session and the 8:15am ET ECB policy decision (followed by the 8:45am ET press conference), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Thursday’s NA session and the 8:15am ET ECB policy decision (followed by the 8:45am ET press conference), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. EUR is trading soft on the day"The preliminary PMI’s offered little in terms of the broader narrative, as the manufacturing PMI met expectations with a 49.8 print while services offered a marginal surprise at 51.2. The ECB is widely expected to deliver a hold and strike a neutral tone in terms of the rate outlook." "On trade, Wednesday’s news of a looming US/EU agreement (imposing 15% tariffs on US imports from the EU) helped push the EUR to a fresh local high however the common currency has yet to fully retrace its pullback from the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. The multi-month trend is bullish with a sequence of higher lows and higher highs since February." "The RSI is around 60, allowing momentum to confirm the trend. We continue to highlight the importance of trend support at the 50 day MA (1.1546) and see limited resistance between the current levels and the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800."

14:27 CAD slips, fails to benefit from pro-risk mood – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly lower on the session, unable to find any lift today from the bid for its FX commodity cousins or global stocks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly lower on the session, unable to find any lift today from the bid for its FX commodity cousins or global stocks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Retail Sales expected to drop"While our CAD fair value estimate continues to point to a modest undervaluation (today’s estimated equilibrium sits at a fractionally lower 1.3535), the CAD may struggle to progress in the short run absent a broader tun lower in the USD. Canadian Retail Sales are expected to fall 1.0% in May, in line with the preliminary decline reported with the April data." "Looking forward, seasonal trends are also poised to turn somewhat less favourable for the CAD over the late summer period. That trend coincides with (and may be somewhat contingent on) equity markets typically experiencing more volatility over the period, however." "USD/CAD’s rebound from the upper 1.35 zone yesterday may mark the low point for funds in the short run. Short-term price signals are USD-bullish after an outside range higher formed yesterday morning. Broader trend dynamics remain USD-bearish though so it may be a case of USD/CAD pushing higher briefly before the downtrend resumes. Look for USD resistance at 1.3650/75."

14:24 USD steadies but undertone remains bearish – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session but its performance is more mixed against the G10 currencies and it slipped to its lowest since November against the CNY in overnight trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall on the session but its performance is more mixed against the G10 currencies and it slipped to its lowest since November against the CNY in overnight trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD decline stabilizes but headwinds from tariffs"Risk sentiment is positive as progress is made on trade deals, despite criticism that the US/Japan trade agreement will do little to alter trade dynamics given the relief granted to Japanese automakers. Meanwhile, the average effective tariff facing US consumers remains elevated (around 20%) which will underpin worries about inflation gains in the short run and the potential constraint on consumer activity that tariffs may cause. The AUD and NZD are leading gains among the G10 currencies on the back of the pro-risk mood while dollar/Europe trades firmer on the day so far." "The rebound in the USD may be temporary. While tariffs are likely to deliver a one-off increase in the price level, investors are clearly concerned that inflation risks becoming more entrenched, the more so perhaps amid the continued criticism of Fed policy by President Trump and pressure for lower interest rates. The 2Y US inflation swap has edged a little lower today but remains above 3% while futures continue to reflect around 100bps of Fed rates cuts over the next 12 months. We remain negative on the outlook for the USD in the medium term and think that the gains seen through the first half of July have likely run their course." "The technical bear trend remains intact and trend dynamics are strengthening again after the early July consolidation. Event risk is a little higher today than earlier this week. The ECB policy decision is not expected to result in any policy adjustment but attention will be paid to how President Lagarde characterizes the outlook. US weekly Initial Claims are expected to edge up modestly, keeping Continuing Claims somewhat elevated. US July PMI data may reflect relatively resilient activity but price and employment sub-components will be of interest."

14:07 GBP: UK composite PMI drops to 2-month low as services sector slows
Pound Sterling (GBP) is underperforming most major currencies, BBH's FX analysts report.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is underperforming most major currencies, BBH's FX analysts report.Inflation limits BoE easing"The UK composite PMI fell more than expected to a 2-month low at 51.0 (consensus: 51.8) vs. 52.0 in June driven by an unexpected slowdown in services sector activity. The services PMI dropped to a 2-month low at 51.2 (consensus: 52.9) vs. 52.8 in June, while the manufacturing PMI improved to a 6-month high at 48.2 (consensus: 48.0) vs. 47.7 in June.""Meanwhile, prices charged by private sector businesses increased at a robust pace in July, with the rate of inflation picking up for the first time since April. Sticky underlying inflation suggests the Bank of England has limited room to dial-up easing to support growth. The swaps market price-in 95% odds of a 25bps cut to 4.00% at the August 7 meeting and a total of 75bps of easing over the next 12 months.""The unfavorable UK macro backdrop of sluggish growth and elevated price pressure spells trouble for GBP, especially versus EUR."

14:03 Dow Jones futures dip despite the upbeat mood on the latest US trade deals
Wall Street futures anticipate a mixed opening on Thursday, as the enthusiasm about trade deals wears off. Dow Jones futures are trading 0.30% lower at the time of writing, while S&P 500 Index futures trade 0.10% higher and the Nasdaq Index advances 0.3%, pointing to new record highs.

14:03 USD/CNH: 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now – UOB Group
Risk for US Dollar (USD) remains on the downside against Chinese Yuan (CNH); the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, USD view is negative; it could drop to 7.1295, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Risk for US Dollar (USD) remains on the downside against Chinese Yuan (CNH); the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now. In the longer run, USD view is negative; it could drop to 7.1295, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD view is negative24-HOUR VIEW: "We detected 'a soft underlying tone' yesterday. We indicated that 'this is likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1635/7.1800 rather than a sustained decline.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. USD plunged and not only broke below 7.1635 but also the major support level at 7.1550. Given the strong downward momentum, the risk for USD remains on the downside. However, the significant support level at 7.1295 is probably out of reach for now (there is another support level at 7.1400). To sustain the strong downward momentum, USD must hold below 7.1630 (minor resistance is at 7.1560)."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held the same view since last Monday (14 Jul, spot at 7.1730), wherein USD 'is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920.' After trading in a relatively quiet manner for several days, USD plummeted and closed at 7.1514 yesterday, down by 0.25%. There has been a sharp increase in downward momentum, and we are revising our USD view to negative, anticipating a drop to 7.1295. We will maintain our view provided that USD remains below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 7.1730."

13:59 EUR steady ahead of ECB meeting – BBH
EUR/USD pared back some of yesterday’s gains but is holding above 1.1700, BBH's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD pared back some of yesterday’s gains but is holding above 1.1700, BBH's FX analysts report.Lagarde’s guidance in focus as ECB holds"The ECB is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. With no new ECB economic projections released at this meeting, President Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting press conference will be key for policy insights.""In our view, the bar for more ECB interest rate cuts is high which is EUR supportive. First, Eurozone services inflation still has some distance to travel to make sure that inflation stabilizes at the target on a sustainable basis.""Second, the Eurozone July PMI suggests private sector economic activity is slowly picking up pace. The composite PMI rose more than expected to an 11-month high at 51.0 (consensus: 50.7) vs. 50.6 in June driven by faster services sector growth momentum (51.2 vs. 50.5 in June) and a slower contraction in manufacturing activity (49.8 vs. 49.5 in June)."

13:46 EU spokesperson: Negotiated outcome with US is within reach
The European Union (EU) continues to engage intensively with the United States (US) on tariffs and focuses on finding a negotiated outcome, a European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday, per Reuters.

13:29 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range of 145.95/146.95 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 145.95/146.95 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 145.95/146.95 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Rapid increase in momentum indicates USD can weaken24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped sharply on Tuesday. Yesterday (Wednesday), when USD was at 146.60, we stated that 'strong downward momentum suggests further USD weakness.' However, we pointed out that 'due to the oversold conditions, any decline might not be able to break the major support at 145.75.' USD declined less than expected, dropping to a low of 146.09 before settling at 146.49 (-0.10%). Today, USD is likely to trade in a range, but the residual downward momentum suggests a lower range of 145.90/146.90."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following the sharp decline in USD earlier this week, we highlighted the following yesterday (24 Jul, spot at 146.60): 'The rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could weaken to 145.75. If it breaks clearly below this level, the next level to watch is 144.95. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 148.00.' We maintain our but we are lowering the ‘strong resistance’ level from 148.00 to 147.60."

13:23 USD finds support amid trade deal hopes – BBH
USD bounces after a string of losses, the MSCI All Country World Index surged to a record high, and global bond yields are drifting higher, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD bounces after a string of losses, the MSCI All Country World Index surged to a record high, and global bond yields are drifting higher, BBH's FX analysts report.Global stocks hit record as tariff talks advance"Trade deal optimism has turbocharged risk assets. Yesterday, the media reported the US was closing in on an agreement with the EU that would set a 15% tariff for most products. This would be down from the threatened 30% levy if both sides fail to reach an agreement by August 1.""USD can find additional near-term support if the US July S&P Global PMI points to faster private sector growth momentum (9:45am New York, 2:45pm London). The composite PMI is projected at 52.8 vs. 52.9 in June, services is expected at 53.0 vs. 52.9 in June, and manufacturing is seen at 52.7 vs. 52.9 in June. Nonetheless, the year-to-date USD downtrend is intact in our view."

13:22 USD/JPY claws back losses as US Dollar gains ground
The USD/JPY pair recovers its early losses and flattens around 146.50 during the European trading session on Thursday.

13:19 NZD/USD: May test 0.6060 before leveling off – UOB Group
As long as New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds above 0.6015 against US Dollar (USD), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. In the longer run, NZD could continue to rise; the next level to watch is 0.6080, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

As long as New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds above 0.6015 against US Dollar (USD), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. In the longer run, NZD could continue to rise; the next level to watch is 0.6080, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD is set to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not expect NZD to soar to a high of 0.6047 (we were expecting consolidation). The sharp rise appears excessive, but as long as NZD holds above 0.6015 (minor support is at 0.6030), it may test 0.6060 before leveling off. Based on the current overbought momentum, any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6080.1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We pointed out yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 0.5990) that 'upward momentum is increasing.' However, we highlighted that NZD 'must first close above 0.6010 before a move to 0.6040 can be expected.' We did not expect NZD to quickly soar and surpass 0.6040 (high of 0.6047). NZD could continue to rise, and the next level to watch is 0.6080. On the downside, if NZD breaks below 0.5985, it would mean that it is not advancing further."

13:00 AUD/USD maintains uptrend above 50-DMA – Societe Generale
AUD/USD remains supported above its 50-DMA, with positive momentum pointing to further upside toward 0.6685 and beyond. Short-term support holds near 0.6500, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD remains supported above its 50-DMA, with positive momentum pointing to further upside toward 0.6685 and beyond. Short-term support holds near 0.6500, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. AUD eyes next targets at 0.6685 and 0.6720"AUD/USD reclaimed the 50-DMA in April resulting in a steady up move. Recent pullbacks have found support around this MA highlighting prevalence of upward momentum. This is also denoted by the daily MACD, which remains anchored within positive territory." "The pair looks poised to continue its up move. The next objectives are located at 0.6685 and projections of 0.6720/0.6765. The MA at 0.6500 is a short-term support."

13:00 AUD/USD eases trims gains but remains near YTD highs above 0.6600
The Aussie is pulling back from the eight-month highs at 0.6625 hit earlier today, as the US Dollar pares some losses, but remains above 0.6600, consolidating gains after having rallied about 2% over the last five days.The trade deal between the US and Japan and hopes of an immediate agreement with

12:58 AUD/USD: Any advance may not reach 0.6625. – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise against US Dollar (USD); deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise against US Dollar (USD); deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD advance to 0.6625, potentially reaching 0.6645, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD advance24-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6550 yesterday, we noted that 'momentum is increasing, albeit not by much.' While we expected AUD to 'edge higher,' we were of the view that 'any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6575.' Our directional call was correct, but we did not expect the sudden upward acceleration as AUD soared above 0.6575 and broke a significant resistance at 0.6595 (high of 0.6603). While AUD could continue to rise today, deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above 0.6565, with minor support at 0.6585."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 0.6550), we highlighted that 'there has been a slight increase in upward momentum.' We added, AUD 'could edge higher toward 0.6575.' We pointed out that 'to maintain the momentum, AUD must hold above 0.6505.' However, instead of edging higher, AUD surged and reached a high of 0.6603. The rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further advance to 0.6625, potentially reaching 0.6645. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 0.6530 instead of 0.6505."

12:52 EUR/USD eyes resistance at 1.1830 – Societe Generale
EUR/USD is recovering after finding support near 1.1555, but the pair faces a key test at 1.1830. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a period of consolidation, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is recovering after finding support near 1.1555, but the pair faces a key test at 1.1830. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a period of consolidation, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Euro rebounds, but momentum remains fragile"EUR/USD breached the multi-month ascending trend line earlier this month however the downward momentum has failed to regain. The pair has carved out an interim trough at 1.1555, which is now also the 50-DMA." "A gradual rebound has materialized after this test. EUR/USD is inching towards recent pivot high of 1.1830. It will be interesting to see if it can establish beyond this hurdle. Inability to cross 1.1830 could result in a consolidation phase. The low achieved earlier in July at 1.1555 is key support."

12:46 GBP/USD: Likely to test 1.3610 before leveling off – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3610 before leveling off; the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened.

Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3610 before leveling off; the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened. In the longer run, outlook for GBP remains positive, but the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Outlook for GBP remains positive24-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to the strong advance in GBP early this week, we highlighted yesterday that 'the sharp rise over the past couple of days appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to advance, GBP is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.3475 and 1.3535.' Our view of consolidation was incorrect, as GBP continued to rise, reaching a high of 1.3585. The advance still appears to be overextended, but upward momentum is not showing signs of easing just yet. Today, GBP could test 1.3610 before leveling off. The next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened. To sustain the overbought momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3530, with minor support at 1.3555."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (22 Jul, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that GBP 'is likely to trade in a range between 1.3415 and 1.3535.' After GBP rose to a high of 1.3434, we pointed out yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 1.3520) that 'a clear break above 1.3535 would indicate that GBP could rise to 1.3575.' We did not expect the rapid build-up in momentum, as GBP not only rose above 1.3535, but also 1.3575 (high has been 1.3585). Although the outlook for GBP remains positive, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.3610. Overall, only a breach of 1.3490 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3455 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased."

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:22 EUR/USD: Likely to edge above 1.1795 – UOB Group
While negative divergence is forming, Euro (EUR) could edge above 1.1795 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now.

While negative divergence is forming, Euro (EUR) could edge above 1.1795 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, price action indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Price action indicates further EUR strength24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose sharply and reached a high of 1.1760 two days ago before easing. In the early Asian session yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1740, we held the view that 'while there is potential for EUR to rise above 1.1765 today, overbought conditions suggest it might not beable to hold above this level.' We added, 'the next resistance at 1.1795 is unlikely to come under threat.' We also pointed out that 'to sustain the overbought momentum, EUR must hold above 1.1700, with minor support at 1.1720.' After dipping to a low of 1.1709 in the early NY session, EUR rose to a high of 1.1775 before closing at 1.1770, up by 0.14%. While negative divergence is starting to form, EUR could edge above the 1.1795 level before a pullback can be expected. Given the negative divergence, the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now. On the downside, the two support levels to watch are 1.1755 and 1.1735."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 1.1740) still stands. As highlighted, the recent price action 'indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795.' Looking ahead, a clear break above 1.1795 will shift the focus to 1.1830. Overall, only a breach of 1.1690 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1655 yesterday) would indicate that EUR is not strengthening further."

12:16 TRY: Rate cuts to resume today – Commerzbank
Expectations have intensified for the Turkish central bank (CBT) to resume cutting interest rates today: with analyst forecasts for a cut between 250bp and 350bp (majority expectation for 250bp).

Expectations have intensified for the Turkish central bank (CBT) to resume cutting interest rates today: with analyst forecasts for a cut between 250bp and 350bp (majority expectation for 250bp). This prospect already became clear during the last rate meeting: CBT kept the rate unchanged then, but made subtle changes to its language and communication which made it clear that the central bank was gearing to cut rates soon – reference to the potential for monetary tightening was removed from the statement, and replaced with statements that the CB would utilise all tools in case the inflation outlook were to worsen later, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.Lira is likely to keep depreciating faster"The rationale which CBT will repeat today in defence of rate cuts is that inflation has been moderating steadily. We, ourselves, do not find recent inflation or balance of payments developments too convincing: we dismiss apparent trends based on year-on-year price changes; seasonally-adjusted month-on-month CPI increase still annualises to nearly 30%, which is incompatible with CBT’s end-2025 inflation forecast. If one were to trust the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) cost of living data more than the official CPI, then inflation is running even faster.""Furthermore, several fundamental factors are currently pro-inflationary, including recent upward adjustment to wholesale natural gas tariffs by the state energy company, the higher oil price now (compared with April-May), and around 26% running rate of lira depreciation. Last but not least, there may have been some improvement in capital inflow recently, but that was a rebound from the low of March-April, and also boosted by primary issuance. Net FX reserves, excluding swaps, fell in June by a steep 9.5% to their lowest level since August 2024 – in other words, capital flows remain volatile and confidence has not yet been fully restored.""Given these complexities, and despite the optical improvement in year-on-year inflation, we believe the credibility of the policy framework necessitates a more cautious approach than aggressive early rate cuts. The lira is likely to keep depreciating faster, particularly if CBT were to make complacent assessments about inflation and proceed with significant rate reductions over the coming quarter."

12:11 TRY: Restart of cutting cycle is here – Commerzbank
The Turkish central bank is likely to return to the cutting cycle today after tightening conditions in March and April. We expect a 250bp cut to 43.50% in line with market surveys. However, expectations are tilted towards a larger rate cut.

The Turkish central bank is likely to return to the cutting cycle today after tightening conditions in March and April. We expect a 250bp cut to 43.50% in line with market surveys. However, expectations are tilted towards a larger rate cut. At the same time, the CBT usually follows market expectations and likes to stay on the hawkish side to maintain TRY stability. Therefore, 250bp seems the safest to restart the cutting cycle that began late last year, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.USD/TRY continues its gradual upward trajectory "Although inflation expectations continue to decline gradually and inflation has seen some slowdown in recent months, the overall picture is not ideal for the central bank. The economy is visibly slowing down but inflation expectations for the end of this year remain well above the CBT forecast, close to 30%, which is also our forecast (29%). So today we will be closely monitoring the size of the rate cut, as it will reveal the central bank's willingness to consider further cuts. Additionally, the forward guidance provided will offer more insights. We expect another 250bp rate cuts this year with 35% by year-end.""USD/TRY continues its gradual upward trajectory with the recent break of the 40.00 level, and not much will change here in the near term in our view, with 43.00 at the end of this year. The central bank has been allowing less carry for long TRY investors in recent months but at the same time seems to have FX fully under control, reducing the chance of any sudden USD/TRY moves to the upside. The market has also priced in more rate cuts and OIS and FX implieds have essentially returned to almost pre-March levels, making pricing less attractive here. Overall, TRY still offers a reliable source of safe carry, but the returns have understandably diminished as the CBT moves to normalise conditions."

12:03 USD/CHF climbs toward 0.7950 as Swiss Franc weakens due to diminished safe-haven demand
USD/CHF edges higher for the second successive day, trading around 0.7940 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:49 EUR/GBP hits session highs at 0.8680 on upbeat Eurozone PMIs, trade deal hopes
The Euro is posting moderate gains on Thursday, after bouncing from 0.8640 on Wednesday, but remains trapped within the weekly range, with investors awaiting details of a widely expected trade deal with the US, and the outcome of the European Central Bank’s meeting.News reporting that Eurozone and U

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News reporting that Eurozone and US negotiators might be close to a trade deal has provided some support to the Euro earlier on Thursday. European Commission officials revealed that the agreement would include 15% tariffs on Eurozone imports, with exemptions for automobiles, medical devices, and alcoholic beverages.Eurozone preliminary PMIs for July beat expectationsIn the meantime, data from the Eurozone has been mixed, with Preliminary PMIs showing stronger-than-expected business activity, mainly in the services sector, yet the German GfK Consumer Confidence survey confirms the soft momentum of the bloc’s major economy.In the UK, on the contrary, Preliminary PMI data have disappointed, with the services sector’s growth slowing down against expectations, while manufacturing activity improved but well within contraction levels.
bank’s
The highlight today is the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, but the market will be analysing President Lagarde’s speech for clues about the bank’s near-term policy. Economic Indicator HCOB Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 49.8 Consensus: 49.8 Previous: 49.5 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: 50.8 Previous: 50.5 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:30 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 48.2 Consensus: 48 Previous: 47.7 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:30 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: 53 Previous: 52.8 Source: S&P Global

11:33 UK Preliminary Services PMI unexpectedly drops to 51.2 in July vs. 53 expected
Junko Koeda recently argued for the need to monitor second-round effects from rising rice costs. Another board member, Hajime Takata, said this month the BOJ must resume rate hikes after a temporary pause as Japan was on the cusp of achieving the bank's 2% target.

Junko Koeda recently argued for the need to monitor second-round effects from rising rice costs. Another board member, Hajime Takata, said this month the BOJ must resume rate hikes after a temporary pause as Japan was on the cusp of achieving the bank's 2% target."If upward inflation risks heighten, the BOJ may need to act decisively as a guardian of price stability," its hawkish policymaker Naoki Tamura said late last month.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in July: Actual (48.2)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in July: Actual (48.2)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 below forecasts (53) in July
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 below forecasts (53) in July

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51.9) in July: Actual (51)
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51.9) in July: Actual (51)

11:22 EUR/JPY holds losses near 172.00, moves little following Eurozone PMI data
EUR/JPY loses ground after halting its five-day winning streak, trading around 172.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains subdued despite the release of improved HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Eurozone.

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The currency cross remains subdued despite the release of improved HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Eurozone.The preliminary HCOB Composite PMI climbed to 50.0 in July, from the previous 50.6 reading and surpassing the expected 50.8. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, from 49.5 reported in June, matching the market consensus of 49.8. The Services PMI advanced to 51.2 from 50.5 prior, coming above the expected 50.8 reading.The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index came in at 50.3 in July, against 50.4 in June and 50.7 expected. The index was at its lowest level in two months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 from June’s 49.0, though missing the market forecast of 49.4. The measure hit a 36-month high. Services PMI grew to 50.1 from 49.7 prior, against the expected 50.0 reading.Moreover, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey fell to -21.5 for August from -20.3 prior reading. The print missed market consensus of -19.2, marking the lowest reading since April. The decline highlighted rising consumer pessimism driven by economic uncertainty, including worries about US tariffs on European goods.The EUR/JPY cross also depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground due to optimism surrounding the new United States (US)-Japan trade deal. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Economic Indicator HCOB Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 08:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51 Consensus: 50.8 Previous: 50.6 Source: S&P Global

11:20 USD: Looking cheap – ING
The dollar didn’t suffer in the first half of July from trade tensions re-escalating. And it is equally finding no benefit from positive trade deal news.

The dollar didn’t suffer in the first half of July from trade tensions re-escalating. And it is equally finding no benefit from positive trade deal news. As a potential blockbuster deal with the EU may be announced in the coming days after yesterday’s US-Japan agreement, the dollar impact may also prove to be mostly neutral, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Markets still price in 16bp of easing for September"If the greenback is indeed due a short-term recovery (we still think it is), then that will need to be triggered by data rather than tariff news, in line with the recent rise in most USD crosses’ sensitivity to short-term rate differentials.""But this week has been quiet on data, and that has seemingly allowed some rebuilding of USD shorts. Today’s calendar is more crowded, with focus on new home sales (yesterday’s existing home sales came in soft), S&P Global PMIs and above all jobless claims. Initial claims have been on a five-week downward trend and continuing claims have plateaued since mid-June. With only eight days until the US jobs report, another strong print today can drive NFP expectations a bit higher. The whisper number is currently 110k.""Markets still price in 16bp of easing for September, which is the contract where we see the greatest potential for a hawkish repricing driving some dollar recovery."

11:18 CHF: No letter yet, but threat of tariffs on pharmaceutical products – Commerzbank
Amidst all the discussions about potential trade deals with the US (see yesterday's article on Japan and today's article on the EU), one important point has been overlooked. Switzerland has not yet received a letter threatening tariffs from 1 August.

Amidst all the discussions about potential trade deals with the US (see yesterday's article on Japan and today's article on the EU), one important point has been overlooked. Switzerland has not yet received a letter threatening tariffs from 1 August. This is certainly a positive sign for Switzerland. After all, Trump announced that the remaining countries would probably face tariffs of around 15%, and he announced a 31% tariff on Swiss products at the beginning of April. This is also consistent with statements made by Swiss officials a few weeks ago who emphasised that a trade deal with the US was ready for Trump to sign, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Swiss franc is likely to trend sideways"Firstly, it is unclear whether Switzerland will receive a letter at all. The White House spokeswoman recently emphasised that letters could still be sent if the talks fail. Secondly, it is unclear why Trump has not yet signed the deal with Switzerland. It is possible that the focus was initially on Japan, India and the EU, with Switzerland being overlooked. This would be a positive development if it means that Switzerland will receive a lower tariff than was announced at the beginning of April. However, it would be a bad sign if the tariffs were only postponed, with a letter similar to those sent to most other countries ultimately announcing similar tariffs.""Added to this is the threat of tariffs on pharmaceutical products. These account for a large proportion of US imports from Switzerland. Initially, the majority of these were exempt from reciprocal tariffs at the beginning of April due to the extensive list of exemptions in Annex 2 of the Executive Order on reciprocal tariffs. However, this is only a postponement, and Trump has repeatedly emphasised that he intends to impose sectoral tariffs on pharmaceutical products. Most recently, he mentioned a rate of 200%. While the rate is unlikely to remain this high, a sectoral tariff is still likely.""A possible trade deal between Switzerland and the US is likely to include sectoral tariffs on pharmaceutical products. One possibility would be a 15% tariff on all Swiss imports to the US plus a low double-digit tariff on Swiss pharmaceutical products, depending on what Switzerland can offer the US. Compared with the tariffs threatened to date, this would be a positive sign for Switzerland. From this perspective, it is therefore entirely understandable that the Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, in line with our forecast. However, all market participants should be aware that the tariffs will still have a negative impact on the Swiss real economy. We therefore revised our growth forecast downwards last week, partly due to weaker recent figures. Until the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs subsides, the Swiss franc is likely to trend sideways."

11:15 JPY: Lots of positives in the price – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.A return to 148.0 remains achievable over the next few day"The US-Japan trade deal is seemingly reinforcing market expectations on a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of the year, which is now 20bp priced in, up from 16bp earlier this week and a 10bp low earlier in July.""While our BoJ call has been generally more hawkish than pricing, it seems to us markets are underestimating the risks of a new prime minister potentially favouring a more cautious approach to rate hikes.""The yen may have used up its short-term bullish ammunition with the post-election “sell the fact” effect and the US-Japan trade deal, and we expect a rebuilding of USD/JPY longs around current levels ahead of potential political turmoil and lingering debt concerns. A return to 148.0 remains achievable over the next few days."

11:13 EU talks with the US pick up speed – Commerzbank
Following the announcement of the deal with Japan, it seems that negotiations with the EU are also gathering momentum. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary stated that the Japan deal was not a blueprint for the EU, as the latter had not yet presented any such 'innovative' ideas.

Following the announcement of the deal with Japan, it seems that negotiations with the EU are also gathering momentum. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary stated that the Japan deal was not a blueprint for the EU, as the latter had not yet presented any such 'innovative' ideas. Reports in the days leading up to this announcement were not particularly promising either, emphasising Trump's increasingly hardened stance and the EU's preparations for counter-tariffs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. ECB meeting is unlikely to be particularly exciting"Reports emerged that the EU and the US were moving closer together, suggesting that a deal on 15% tariffs on most EU exports to the US was possible — close to the lower limit that Trump reiterated last night. The reports suggested that EU countries could accept such a deal, with attempts being made to include important car exports. After all the turmoil of recent months, such a deal would certainly bode well for the euro, which is why we saw EUR/USD move back towards 1.18 yesterday.""Ultimately, Donald Trump must agree to the deal. He may impose the tariffs announced in the letter on 1 August, he may agree to the deal, or he may do something completely different. It should not be forgotten that the EU is one of the US president's favourite bogeymen, and that a deal such as the one currently being discussed would not be too bad for the EU — at least compared to the other scenarios discussed in recent months. Therefore, we could be in for some exciting twists and turns in the coming days until a deal is finally announced.""Amidst the trade talks, the ECB is holding its regular meeting today. However, the meeting is unlikely to be particularly exciting. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and no new forecasts will be published. Things are likely to become more interesting regarding the September meeting. Our economists continue to assume that the ECB will deliver its final interest rate cut for the time being then, although the market is still undecided on this. Nevertheless, given the ongoing trade negotiations and the fact that the interest rate cut cycle is coming to an end, the ECB President is unlikely to reveal her hand at today's press conference. Therefore, the talks with the US are likely to be more relevant for the euro in the short term."

11:08 EUR: Will the ECB comment on the euro? – ING
The ECB announces monetary policy today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Trade and the euro’s strength are the two hot topics in Frankfurt today.

The ECB announces monetary policy today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Trade and the euro’s strength are the two hot topics in Frankfurt today. A few reports suggest that a US-EU deal is imminent and should follow the Japanese blueprint announced yesterday, so 15% tariffs on EU exports, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Modest downside risks for the euro"If the ECB is feeling confident that a trade deal is coming, the risks of a dovish surprise are indeed lower. However, the currency discussion remains a wildcard that poses downside risks for the euro. A few members have been unusually vocal about the euro’s strength, and there is a chance some FX comments can make their way into today’s communication. After all, the ECB has been focused on the theme of inflation undershooting, and a strong domestic currency does contribute to that. It remains to be seen whether the ECB feels currency remarks might hinder US-EU trade relations, considering Trump’s sensitivity to FX manipulation themes.""In terms of guidance, don’t expect anything new from the ECB, which should limit the market impact of today's meeting. Policymakers have reiterated that monetary policy is in a 'good place' given subdued inflation, but the Governing Council is probably happy with markets pricing in just one cut by year-end.""We think there are still some modest downside risks for the euro today, but if the ECB steers away from commenting on the euro’s strength, keeps guidance unchanged, and markets feel even less chance of a September move, EUR/USD could break above 1.180."

11:02 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI edges higher to 49.8 in July as expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the services sector expanded in July, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (49.8) in July
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (49.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.8) in July
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.8) in July
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.8) in July: Actual (51)
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.8) in July: Actual (51)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs set to show ongoing US economic strength in July
S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global flash PMIs for July are seen improving further, suggesting the US economy continued to expand.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep its interest rates unchanged at the end of the month.EUR/USD manages to regain some pace and flirts with the 1.1700 area.S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), each calibrated such that numbers above 50 indicate growth and readings below that threshold indicate contraction. These monthly snapshots, released far ahead of many official figures, analyse everything from production and export patterns to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels, offering some of the earliest signs of the economy's direction.The Composite PMI ticked down marginally to 52.9 in June from 53.0 the previous month. According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "The US service sector reported a welcome combination of sustained growth and increased hiring in June but also reported elevated price pressures, all of which could add to pressure on policymakers to remain cautious with regard to any further loosening of monetary policy."What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?Investors anticipate a little increase in July's flash Manufacturing PMI from 52.0 to 52.5, while the Services PMI is projected to rise from 52.9 to 53.0.Although a minor decline may not scare markets, any resilience – or rebound – above the 50-point level might alleviate lingering economic fears, particularly if service sector momentum remains strong.Investors will focus on the PMIs' granular inflation and employment measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that inflation is projected to accelerate in reaction to US tariffs, causing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a cautious tone. Despite some Fed officials suggesting a quarter-point rate decrease as early as later this month, the market consensus expects the Fed to stay on the sidelines.A significant upside surprise in the services PMI, along with a strong print from the manufacturing gauge, would likely bolster the US Dollar by confirming the idea of a healthy economy, hence supporting the Fed's conservative attitude.In contrast, evidence of easing pricing pressures and weak private sector hiring might reignite prospects for more monetary easing, weighing on the US Dollar.When will the July flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity extending the gain of momentum observed in the last readings.Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, warns that the continuation of the ongoing recovery of the EUR/USD pair could see it challenge its yearly peak of 1.1830 (July 1), ahead of the September 2021 high at 1.1909 (September 3), and the critical milestone at 1.2000.Alternatively, Piovano notes that the resurgence of the selling pressure should meet initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1556 (July 17), prior to the interim 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1491, and the weekly base of 1.1445 (June 19).“While above the 200-day SMA at 1.0910, the pair’s bullish stance should remain unchanged,” Piovano adds. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.9 Consensus: 52.8 Previous: 52.8 Source: S&P Global

10:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD downside attempts remain contained above $38.75
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as the risk-on mood weighs on demand for the safe-haven precious metals, but the pair has a significant support at the $38.75 area (July 22 lows), which is keeping the bullish structure in place so far.News that the EU is

10:48 Pound Sterling trades lower ahead of flash UK-US PMI data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major peers on Thursday ahead of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 08:30 GMT.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling faces selling pressure against its peers, with investors awaiting the preliminary UK-US PMI data for July.Hopes of US-EU trade deal have improved demand for risk-perceived assets.The Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady next week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major peers on Thursday ahead of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 08:30 GMT.Economists expect the Composite PMI to come in at 51.9 against 52.0 in June, suggesting that the overall business activity continued to expand, but at a moderate pace.Investors will closely monitor the hiring trend by the private sector as latest labor market data has demonstrated signs of slowdown due to an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes. Additionally, the trend in the export order will be a major concern for investors, given trade uncertainty ahead of the United States’ (US) tariff deadline on August 1.In the North American session, all eyes will be on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for July. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity grew at a faster pace. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% 0.12% -0.15% 0.12% -0.18% -0.01% 0.09% EUR -0.10% 0.04% -0.26% 0.04% -0.27% -0.10% -0.00% GBP -0.12% -0.04% -0.28% 0.00% -0.31% -0.13% -0.04% JPY 0.15% 0.26% 0.28% 0.27% -0.05% 0.08% 0.09% CAD -0.12% -0.04% -0.01% -0.27% -0.28% -0.14% -0.06% AUD 0.18% 0.27% 0.31% 0.05% 0.28% 0.17% 0.28% NZD 0.00% 0.10% 0.13% -0.08% 0.14% -0.17% 0.09% CHF -0.09% 0.00% 0.04% -0.09% 0.06% -0.28% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US DollarThe Pound Sterling trades firmly near the two-week high around 1.3580 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European session at the time of writing. The GBP/USD pair strengthens on continuous US Dollar underperformance, following a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near a fresh week low of almost three weeks around 97.00.The appeal of riskier assets, such as the Pound Sterling, improves on hopes that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will finalize a trade agreement ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. An EU-US deal confirmation would diminish fears of damage to the global trade flow.Investors turn increasingly confident on US-EU trade agreement after a report from the Financial Times (FT) mentioned on Wednesday that economies on both sides of the Atlantic could finalize a pact, which would be similar to the tariff deal that took place between the US and Japan that announced on Tuesday. This means that Washington has offered a reduction in the baseline tariff and automobile levy to 15%.The FT report also signaled that EU officials are in a hurry to close a deal to avert a damaging trade war. Given that Japan and the EU exports a significant number of automobiles to the US, lower tariffs on cars from Tokyo would have increased competitiveness of Japanese automakers.On the domestic front, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will keenly watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary on the monetary policy guidance amidst fears that tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump could accelerate inflationary pressures.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling returns above 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling holds onto gains near 1.3580 against the US Dollar on Thursday, the highest level seen in two weeks. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish as it has returned above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3526.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns above 50.00, suggesting a strong buying interest at lower levels.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 1 high around 1.3790 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:46 GBP/JPY slumps to near 198.30 as Japanese Yen gains on US-Japan trade agreement
The GBP/JPY pair trades 0.3% down to near 198.30 during the European trading session on Thursday.

10:33 US Dollar Index remains steady above 97.00 ahead of Purchasing Managers Index data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous four successive days and trading around 97.20 during European hours on Thursday.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 49.2 in July vs. 49.4 expected
The German manufacturing sector contraction eased in July while the services sector returned to expansion, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.7) in July
Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.7) in July

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.4) in July: Actual (49.2)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.4) in July: Actual (49.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50) in July: Actual (50.1)
Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50) in July: Actual (50.1)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (48.4) in July
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (48.4) in July

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (49.6) in July
France HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (49.6) in July

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 49.6 above expectations (49.3) in July
France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 49.6 above expectations (49.3) in July

10:11 WTI rises above $65.50 on US trade optimism
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.75 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

10:02 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 ahead of US PMI data
NZD/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 0.6050 during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey below forecasts (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (10.29%)
Spain Unemployment Survey below forecasts (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (10.29%)

10:00 European Central Bank set to keep interest rates unchanged amid US-EU trade uncertainty
The European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to leave its key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting, after having reduced rates at each of its last seven meetings. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is expected to hold key rates for the first time in over a year on Thursday.The Eurozone inflation rate has hit the ECB’s 2% target as the US-EU trade deal uncertainty lingers.The EUR/USD pair could experience intense volatility following the ECB policy announcements.The European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to leave its key interest rates unchanged after its July policy meeting, after having reduced rates at each of its last seven meetings. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.The interest rate decision will be followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 GMT.The ECB policy announcements will likely have a significant impact on the EUR/USD performance, as the Euro (EUR) is expected to experience intense volatility following the decision and during President Lagarde’s press conference.What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?With a no-rate-change decision widely priced in, the focus will be on the ECB’s policy statement for any hints on whether the central bank will resume its interest rate-cutting cycle later this year amid uncertainty over the potential impact of higher United States (US) tariffs on the Eurozone economy and a stronger Euro.The primary reason behind the ECB’s likely pause is the bloc’s inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), returning to the bank’s target of 2% in June.Though the closely watched services inflation edged up slightly to 3.3% in June, after cooling in May to 3.2%, the gauge was still down from a 4% reading in April.Additionally, mounting tensions over the likelihood of a trade agreement between the US and the European Union (EU) by the August 1 deadline could persuade the ECB to remain in a wait-and-see mode on Thursday.Citing some officials from the European Commission, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday that the EU and US are closing in on a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, while waiving duties on some items.The central bank will look to seek more clarity on the trade scenario before considering any changes to its interest rate trajectory.Another factor that the ECB could consider when determining its path forward on interest rates is the appreciation of the EUR so far this year, which has been helped by a sustained downtrend in the US Dollar (USD).US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies and repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence have been the key catalysts behind the USD downtrend.The narrative that a stronger EUR could bring down imported inflation, in turn, raising the odds of inflation undershooting the ECB's target, could lead the bank to resume rate cuts later in the year.Therefore, prudence on the rate cut path seems like the optimal decision for the central bank in July, with markets seeing a rate cut at the September meeting.How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?Heading into the ECB showdown, the EUR/USD pair is building on its recovery from three-week troughs of 1.1556. Will the turnaround sustain?If the ECB Monetary Policy Statement or President Lagarde hints that the disinflationary trend remains intact, despite the tariff impact, it could revive expectations of rate cuts by the year-end. In this scenario, EUR/USD could resume its correction from multi-year highs.On the other hand, EUR/USD could recover further ground if the ECB acknowledges potential upside risks to inflation and Lagarde sticks to the bank’s ‘data-dependent’ approach to assess the tariff impact.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:“EUR/USD recaptured the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1709 on Tuesday, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds firm near 63, signalling mild bullish momentum and suggesting that more upside remains in the offing for the main currency pair.”“On the upside, the immediate resistance aligns at the multi-year highs of 1.1830 set in early July, above which the 1.1900 round level could be tested. The June 25, 2021, high of 1.1975 will be next on buyers’ radars. Conversely, the weekly low of 1.1615 will offer initial support, below which the 50-day SMA at 1.1535 will come into play. The line in the sand for EUR/USD buyers is located at the 1.1500 mark,” Dhwani added. Related news July ECB cheat sheet: Currency heatwave US–EU close to tariff deal mirroring Japan pact – Financial Times EUR/USD extends the rally above 1.1750 ahead of ECB rate decision Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 24, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: European Central Bank

09:46 France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (96) in July
France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (96) in July

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 96.5 above expectations (96) in July
France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 96.5 above expectations (96) in July

09:41 Japan's Akazawa: There is no difference in understanding on trade deal with US
Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Thursday that the trade deal between Japan and the United States (US) is in line with the country's interests. Akazawa added that he had no discussion with US officials about how to implement the deal yet

09:16 EUR/GBP gathers strength to above 0.8650, all eyes on ECB rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8670 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by optimism surrounding the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) trade deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday.

09:12 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.24 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $65.28.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.02 after its previous daily close at $68.06.

09:09 Forex Today: ECB policy announcements, PMI data to lift market volatility
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 24:

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Additionally, the economic calendar will feature preliminary July Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.19% -1.13% -1.27% -0.83% -1.54% -1.35% -1.10% EUR 1.19% 0.14% -0.05% 0.34% -0.40% -0.35% 0.05% GBP 1.13% -0.14% -0.40% 0.25% -0.50% -0.26% 0.11% JPY 1.27% 0.05% 0.40% 0.46% -0.23% -0.13% 0.35% CAD 0.83% -0.34% -0.25% -0.46% -0.65% -0.52% -0.31% AUD 1.54% 0.40% 0.50% 0.23% 0.65% 0.13% 0.59% NZD 1.35% 0.35% 0.26% 0.13% 0.52% -0.13% 0.38% CHF 1.10% -0.05% -0.11% -0.35% 0.31% -0.59% -0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). As markets cheered the news of the US-Japan trade deal, risk flows dominated the market action on Wednesday. Wall Street's main indexes registered strong daily gains and the US Dollar (USD) Index closed in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day. Early Thursday, US stock index futures trade mixed and the USD Index holds steady above 97.00. The White House said late Wednesday that US President Donald Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday.During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia showed that the S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 53.6 in July from 51.6 in June, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector's business activity at an accelerating pace. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that a measured and a gradual approach to monetary easing is appropriate. After rising more than 0.7% on Wednesday, AUD/USD preserves its bullish momentum early Thursday and trades at its highest level since November above 0.6600.Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined to 48.8 in July and came in below the market expectation of 50.2. On a positive note, Jibun Bank Services PMI rose to 53.5 from 51.7 in this period. USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 146.00 in the European morning, losing more than 0.3% on the day.The ECB is widely anticipated to leave key rates unchanged after the July meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the policy outlook in a pres conference starting at 12:45 GMT. EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1750 after registering moderate gains on Wednesday. Related news Lagarde could strike more dovish tone in ECB meeting tomorrow ECB bank lending survey shows no material impact of higher uncertainty EUR steady ahead of ECB and PMI’s – Scotiabank GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3550 after closing the previous three days decisively higher.USD/CAD fluctuates in a tight channel at around 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday and loses about 1% on a weekly basis. Later in the day, Statistics Canada will release Retail Sales data for May.Gold struggled to find demand and staged a deep correction on Wednesday as risk flows dominated the markets. XAU/USD continues to stretch lower after losing more than 1% on Wednesday and trades below $3,380. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -21.5 below forecasts (-19.2) in August
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -21.5 below forecasts (-19.2) in August

08:52 China’s President Xi: Current challenges facing EU do not come from China
Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday that the current challenges facing the European Union (EU) do not come from China, adding that he hopes that the bloc will keep trade and investment markets open, according to Xinhua.

08:20 USD/CAD Price Forecast: A downside move to near 1.3400 seems warranted
The USD/CAD pair clings to losses near an almost three-week low around 1.3600 during the Asian trading session on Thursday.

08:10 USD/INR corrects as Indian Rupee snaps five-day losing streak
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a five-day losing streak.

08:10 EUR/USD extends the rally above 1.1750 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/USD pair extends its upside to around 1.1775 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid hope for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) trade deal.

08:04 FX option expiries for Jul 24 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jul 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1550 1.3b1.1620 1.5b1.1625 2.7b1.1630 1.7b1.1650 1.1b1.1665 1.2b1.1700 3.4b1.1760 1.2b1.1800 1.4b1.1950 1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.20 890m145.50 948m147.00 1.4b147.50 2.2bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.7925 550m0.8025 617mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6500 512m0.6600 1b0.6650 517mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3785 676mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.6010 599m0.6050 636mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8700 552m

08:00 India HSBC Composite PMI: 60.7 (July) vs previous 61
India HSBC Composite PMI: 60.7 (July) vs previous 61

08:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 59.2 (July) vs 58.4
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 59.2 (July) vs 58.4

08:00 India HSBC Services PMI: 59.8 (July) vs previous 60.4
India HSBC Services PMI: 59.8 (July) vs previous 60.4

07:53 USD/CHF consolidates above 0.7900 as a weaker USD offsets receding safe-haven demand
The USD/CHF pair enters a bearish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Thursday and oscillates in a range around the 0.7920 area, close to a three-week low touched the previous day.

07:42 GBP/USD rises to near 1.3600 due to risk-on mood, UK PMI data eyed
GBP/USD remains steady after four days of gains, trading around 1.3580 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,388.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 9,396.91 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 109,507.50 per tola from INR 109,603.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,388.78 10 Grams 93,886.73 Tola 109,507.50 Troy Ounce 292,024.10 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand on trade optimism US President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. Furthermore, reports that the US and the European Union are heading towards a 15% trade deal boost investors' confidence and weigh on the safe-haven Gold price for the second straight day on Thursday. The markets do not expect an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in July despite Trump's continuous push for lower borrowing costs. In fact, Trump has been attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell personally over his stance on holding rates and repeatedly calling for the central bank chief's resignation. Moreover, Fed Governor Chris Waller and Trump appointee Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have advocated a rate reduction as soon as the next policy meeting on July 30. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a two-and-a-half-week low and could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs, which would provide a fresh insight into the global economic health and influence the safe-haven commodity. Apart from this, the crucial European Central Bank policy decision might infuse some volatility in the markets and drive the XAU/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales data, which, in turn, would drive the USD and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive traders. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:21 AUD/JPY weakens to near 96.50 on optimism over trade deal
The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 96.60 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains weak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) despite the hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers.

07:21 Gold price remains depressed below $3,400 amid trade optimism; downside seems limited
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to extend the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since June 16.

07:15 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades around 172.00 after breaking below nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 171.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

06:58 RBA's Bullock: Monthly job numbers pop up and down
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preserving its independence in challenging times. Bullock added that monthly job numbers pop up and down, and the board would have made the same rate decision.

06:10 RBA’s Bullock: Measured, gradual approach to monetary policy easing is appropriate
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking at the Anika Foundation in Sydney on Thursday, with audience questions expected.

06:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $39.00 due to trade deals optimism
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $39.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of Silver struggles due to weakened safe-haven demand, driven by the optimism over further trade deals between the US and key partners.

05:34 Japanese Yen rallies to two-week top against USD amid trade optimism
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day and advances to a nearly three-week peak during the Asian session on Thursday.

05:23 US Dollar Index extends downside to near 97.00 as traders assess new trade deal
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends the decline to around 97.15, the lowest since July 7, during the Asian trading hours on Thursday.

05:18 Australian Dollar extends winning streak following improved PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The AUD/USD pair is reaching fresh eight-month highs above 0.6600 following the release of Australia's preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar has reached a fresh eight-month high of 0.6613 on Thursday.S&P Australia’s Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July, marking the highest level since April 2022.US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that a nominee for the next Fed Chair could be announced in December or January.The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The AUD/USD pair is reaching fresh eight-month highs above 0.6600 following the release of Australia's preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The focus shifts toward the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor's speech.Judo Bank and S&P Global showed that Australia’s Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July versus 51.6 prior, reaching the highest level since April 2022 and marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.Australian Services PMI climbed to 53.8 in July from the previous reading of 51.8, reaching its fastest pace in 16 months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior. New orders for manufactured goods rebounded, driving the strongest overall growth in new business in more than three years.The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair also receives support from improving market sentiment, driven by the latest trade developments. The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US.Australian Dollar gains ground as US Dollar declines amid risk-on moodThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is continuing to lose ground and trading around 97.10 at the time of writing. Investors will likely observe the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later on Thursday.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that the nominee could come from current board members or the heads of the district banks, according to Bloomberg.US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Additionally, talks between the United States (US) and China are gaining momentum ahead of the August 12 deadline.President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. As part of the agreement, Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to key American products.Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna has formally accused the Fed Chair Powell of committing perjury on two separate occasions, both stemming from discussions about the Fed's long-scheduled renovations to its head offices in Washington, DC.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates would eventually settle at 3% or higher, exceeding the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated unequivocally in a televised interview, “That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in. Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they’re going to start paying the tariffs on August 1.”The latest Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes indicated that the board agreed further rate cuts were warranted over time, with attention centered on timing and extent of easing. The majority believed it was best to await confirmation of an inflation slowdown before easing. Most members felt cutting rates three times in four meetings would not be "cautious and gradual.”Westpac reports that its Leading Index continues to reflect weakening momentum. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index eased to 0.03% in June, down from 0.11% in May. The slowdown is primarily driven by softer commodity prices, waning sentiment, and reduced hours worked.Australian Dollar rises above 0.6600 to mark fresh eight-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6610 on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggested a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is active. Additionally, the pair has also moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the psychological level of 0.6650, followed by the ascending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6680.The AUD/USD pair could find its primary support at nine-day EMA at 0.6558. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.6503. Further declines would weaken the medium-term price momentum and drive the pair to approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6480, followed by the three-week low at 0.6454, which was recorded on July 17.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.03% -0.39% 0.05% -0.12% -0.12% -0.09% EUR 0.04% 0.02% -0.36% 0.09% -0.07% -0.08% -0.04% GBP 0.03% -0.02% -0.40% 0.08% -0.09% -0.10% -0.07% JPY 0.39% 0.36% 0.40% 0.46% 0.27% 0.22% 0.18% CAD -0.05% -0.09% -0.08% -0.46% -0.14% -0.18% -0.15% AUD 0.12% 0.07% 0.09% -0.27% 0.14% -0.01% 0.03% NZD 0.12% 0.08% 0.10% -0.22% 0.18% 0.00% 0.03% CHF 0.09% 0.04% 0.07% -0.18% 0.15% -0.03% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Wed Jul 23, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 53.6 Consensus: - Previous: 51.6 Source: S&P Global

04:52 RBNZ’s Conway: Full impacts of tariffs uncertain, constantly monitoring data
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that tariffs will mean a weaker global economy and weaker demand and the country will constantly monitor data.

04:20 NZD/USD gathers strength to above 0.6050 on trade optimism
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.6055 during the early Asian session on Thursday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. Traders will keep an eye on the prospects of US-China trade deals that could improve the global economic outlook.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1385 vs. 7.1414 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1385 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1414.

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from previous 51.7 to 53.5 in July
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from previous 51.7 to 53.5 in July

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50.2) in July: Actual (48.8)
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50.2) in July: Actual (48.8)

03:27 US Treasury Sec. Bessent says new Fed Chair nominee is likely to be announced in December or January
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the announcement of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee is expected to occur in December or January next year, per Bloomberg.

03:16 WTI trades with mild gains above $65.00 on market optimism
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.30 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI posts modest gains as a new US trade deal boosts market optimism.

03:06 GBP/USD continues to climb as trade deal hopes fuel Greenback declines
GBP/USD climbed on Wednesday, posting strong gains for a third straight day and clawing back toward the 1.3600 handle.

02:31 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI improves to 51.6 in July, Services PMI rises to 53.8
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

02:26 USD/CAD flat lines near 1.3600, traders brace for US PMI/ Canadian Retail Sales data
The USD/CAD pair holds steady near 1.3600 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, positive sentiment from a new US trade deal could improve the global economic outlook and lift the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

02:02 South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 2Q
South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 2Q

02:02 South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q
South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q

02:01 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.6 to 51.6 in July
Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.6 to 51.6 in July

02:00 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 53.6 in July from previous 51.6
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 53.6 in July from previous 51.6

02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.8 to 53.8 in July
Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.8 to 53.8 in July

01:48 EUR/USD rises as US–EU deal hopes offset trade jitters ahead of ECB's decision
The EUR/USD advanced during the North American session, up 0.16%, as rumors had grown that the United States and the European Union (EU) are about to sign a deal, similar to the one inked between Washington and Tokyo on Tuesday.

01:40 South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI fell from previous 70 to 68 in August
South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI fell from previous 70 to 68 in August

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22:21 Dow Jones Industrial Average hesitates on Thursday after key earnings misses The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled on Thursday, consolidating just below the 45,000 handle as earnings blunders drag down key overweighted stocks listed on the Dow Jones.

21:57 WTI Crude rallies despite Chevron’s return to Venezuela shifting supply outlook West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is attempting a breakout as traders weigh conflicting signals from supply and demand.

21:43 Forex Today: UK Retail Sales take centre stage alongside German business morale The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and print decent gains on Thursday, always amid mixed results from the US docket, advancing US yields across the board, and recent progress on the trade front.

20:44 Canadian Dollar snaps winning streak as US Dollar pares losses The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faltered on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak and giving back ground to the US Dollar (USD).

19:22 Sources suggest ECB policymakers lean toward rate hold as tariff risks cloud outlook Sources revealed that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expect to keep rates unchanged, unless they see a deterioration in growth and inflation resumes its downward path, as two sources told Reuters.

18:35 United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 4.23% to 4.245% United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 4.23% to 4.245%

18:29 GBP/USD retreats from 1.3600 on strong US jobs data The GBP/USD rally stalls as the Greenback stages a recovery, pushing the pair down over 0.24% after registering three straight days of gains that fell short of cracking the 1.3600 figure.

18:01 United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell from previous 5 to -3 in July United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell from previous 5 to -3 in July

17:38 Canadian Dollar eases against US Dollar after weak Retail Sales and mixed US PMI data The Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback finds its footing after a volatile start to the week.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (28B) in July 18: Actual (23B) United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (28B) in July 18: Actual (23B)

17:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.65M) in June: Actual (0.627M) United States New Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.65M) in June: Actual (0.627M)

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (52.5) in July United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (52.5) in July

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (53) in July: Actual (55.2) United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (53) in July: Actual (55.2)

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 52.9 to 54.6 in July United States S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 52.9 to 54.6 in July

16:28 Lagarde speech: If trade tensions resolved in short order, it would clear some uncertainty Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:26 EUR/USD little changed as ECB keeps interest rate steady, Lagarde highlights trade risks The Euro (EUR) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.

16:17 Lagarde speech: Disinflationary or inflationary impact of tariffs can not yet be determined Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:09 Lagarde speech: We don't target exchange rate, we monitor Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $683.7B vs previous $685.3B Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $683.7B vs previous $685.3B

15:57 Lagarde speech: Higher tariffs and stronger Euro to make it harder for firms to invest Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:41 US: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 217K last week According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 217K for the week ending July 19.

15:40 US Dollar pauses after falling to two-week low amid trade optimism The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather on Thursday after sliding to a two-week low on Wednesday as renewed optimism around global trade deals boosted market sentiment.

15:31 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -0.3% in May from previous 3.4% Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -0.3% in May from previous 3.4%

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.96M) in July 11: Actual (1.955M) United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.96M) in July 11: Actual (1.955M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 217K, below expectations (227K) in July 18 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 217K, below expectations (227K) in July 18

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 224.5K (July 18) vs previous 229.5K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 224.5K (July 18) vs previous 229.5K

15:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in May Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in May

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in May Canada Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in May

15:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from previous -0.28 to -0.1 in June United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from previous -0.28 to -0.1 in June

15:19 Gold falls as risk appetite grows on prospects of a EU-US trade deal Gold is extending losses for a second straight session on Thursday, pressured by a shift toward risk-on sentiment and a firmer US Dollar.

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%) Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.15%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.15%)

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.15% below forecasts (0.27%) in July Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.15% below forecasts (0.27%) in July

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.15%, below expectations (0.21%) in July Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.15%, below expectations (0.21%) in July

14:42 RBNZ’s Conway: Global uncertainty may ease inflation – BBH NZD/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains around 0.6050. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway maintained a dovish tone, BBH FX analysts report.

14:42 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slumps to near $3,360, fails to break triangle on upside Gold price (XAU/USD) trades almost 0.7% lower around $3,360 during the European trading session on Thursday.

14:37 AUD/USD hits 11-month high on improved risk sentiment and robust PMI data – BBH AUD/USD broke higher through key resistance level at 0.6600, reaching its highest level since August 2024.

14:34 GBP is underperforming due to PMI disappointment – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of CHF, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

14:31 USD/JPY rebounds above 146.00 as Japan's PMI steadies – BBH USD/JPY recovered above 146.00 after testing a two-week low yesterday around 145.86, BBH FX analysts report.

14:27 CAD slips, fails to benefit from pro-risk mood – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly lower on the session, unable to find any lift today from the bid for its FX commodity cousins or global stocks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

14:07 GBP: UK composite PMI drops to 2-month low as services sector slows Pound Sterling (GBP) is underperforming most major currencies, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:59 EUR steady ahead of ECB meeting – BBH EUR/USD pared back some of yesterday’s gains but is holding above 1.1700, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:46 EU spokesperson: Negotiated outcome with US is within reach The European Union (EU) continues to engage intensively with the United States (US) on tariffs and focuses on finding a negotiated outcome, a European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday, per Reuters.

13:23 USD finds support amid trade deal hopes – BBH USD bounces after a string of losses, the MSCI All Country World Index surged to a record high, and global bond yields are drifting higher, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:22 USD/JPY claws back losses as US Dollar gains ground The USD/JPY pair recovers its early losses and flattens around 146.50 during the European trading session on Thursday.

13:00 AUD/USD maintains uptrend above 50-DMA – Societe Generale AUD/USD remains supported above its 50-DMA, with positive momentum pointing to further upside toward 0.6685 and beyond. Short-term support holds near 0.6500, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:58 AUD/USD: Any advance may not reach 0.6625. – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise against US Dollar (USD); deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may not reach 0.6625.

12:52 EUR/USD eyes resistance at 1.1830 – Societe Generale EUR/USD is recovering after finding support near 1.1555, but the pair faces a key test at 1.1830. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a period of consolidation, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:46 GBP/USD: Likely to test 1.3610 before leveling off – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) could test 1.3610 before leveling off; the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to be threatened.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:22 EUR/USD: Likely to edge above 1.1795 – UOB Group While negative divergence is forming, Euro (EUR) could edge above 1.1795 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1830 is likely out of reach for now.

12:16 TRY: Rate cuts to resume today – Commerzbank Expectations have intensified for the Turkish central bank (CBT) to resume cutting interest rates today: with analyst forecasts for a cut between 250bp and 350bp (majority expectation for 250bp).

12:03 USD/CHF climbs toward 0.7950 as Swiss Franc weakens due to diminished safe-haven demand USD/CHF edges higher for the second successive day, trading around 0.7940 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in July: Actual (48.2) United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in July: Actual (48.2)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 below forecasts (53) in July United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 below forecasts (53) in July

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51.9) in July: Actual (51) United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51.9) in July: Actual (51)

11:20 USD: Looking cheap – ING The dollar didn’t suffer in the first half of July from trade tensions re-escalating. And it is equally finding no benefit from positive trade deal news.

11:15 JPY: Lots of positives in the price – ING The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:08 EUR: Will the ECB comment on the euro? – ING The ECB announces monetary policy today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Trade and the euro’s strength are the two hot topics in Frankfurt today.

11:02 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI edges higher to 49.8 in July as expected The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the services sector expanded in July, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (49.8) in July Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (49.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.8) in July Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.8) in July Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.8) in July

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.8) in July: Actual (51) Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.8) in July: Actual (51)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs set to show ongoing US economic strength in July S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.

10:48 Pound Sterling trades lower ahead of flash UK-US PMI data The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major peers on Thursday ahead of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 08:30 GMT.

10:46 GBP/JPY slumps to near 198.30 as Japanese Yen gains on US-Japan trade agreement The GBP/JPY pair trades 0.3% down to near 198.30 during the European trading session on Thursday.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 49.2 in July vs. 49.4 expected The German manufacturing sector contraction eased in July while the services sector returned to expansion, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.7) in July Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.7) in July

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.4) in July: Actual (49.2) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.4) in July: Actual (49.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50) in July: Actual (50.1) Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50) in July: Actual (50.1)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (48.4) in July France HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (48.4) in July

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (49.6) in July France HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (49.6) in July

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 49.6 above expectations (49.3) in July France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 49.6 above expectations (49.3) in July

10:11 WTI rises above $65.50 on US trade optimism West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.75 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

10:02 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 ahead of US PMI data NZD/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 0.6050 during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey below forecasts (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (10.29%) Spain Unemployment Survey below forecasts (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (10.29%)

09:46 France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (96) in July France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (96) in July

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 96.5 above expectations (96) in July France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 96.5 above expectations (96) in July