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22:14 Gold soars to $3,682 record as Fed week sparks easing bets
Gold prices on Monday rallied past the previous record high of $3,674, hitting $3,682 and poised to challenge the $3,700 level in the near term. Traders are setting up for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)monetary policy meeting on September 16-17.

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Traders are setting up for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)monetary policy meeting on September 16-17. Expectations for a rate cut are high, therefore, US Treasury yields tumbled on Monday. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,681, up by over 1%.Bullion rallies over 1% with traders eyeing September 16–17 Fed cutIt's Federal Reserve (Fed) week once again, and Gold prices are reflecting a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle amid a scenario of mixed data. Inflation remains high, but the revision of payrolls last Tuesday, revealing that job gains between April 2024 and March 2025 were overstated by 911K, triggered fears of deterioration in the labor market.Hence, last week’s data and the sudden pivot by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium in late August, opened the door to a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Despite this, there is a minority that projects a 50 bps reduction.Alongside the decision, Fed officials will unveil its latest economic projections and the infamous “dot plot,” in which the board depicts the fed funds rate path moving forward.In the meantime, Bullion prices have rallied to a new all-time high, underpinned by the fall in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, which sits near one-week lows.Ahead this week, the docket will feature US Retail Sales on Tuesday before the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday.Daily digest market movers: Gold rallies as US yields tumbleThe US Senate is poised to vote on Dr. Stephen Miran, President Trump's nominee to the Federal Reserve, on Monday. If confirmed, this will allow him to join this week’s policy meeting.US President Donald Trump posted on this social network that the Fed should cut “bigger than he (Powell) had in mind.”Last week’s University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment poll showed that Americans are growing pessimistic about the economy, as the Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from 58.2 to 55.4. Inflation expectations for one year were unchanged at 4.8%, while for five years they rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in all three remaining meetings this year, meaning that the fed funds rate will reach the 3.50%-3.75% range.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.33% at 97.29.US Treasury yields are surging, with the 10-year Treasury note up three and a half basis points (bps) to 4.034%. US real yields — calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the nominal yield — rose nearly four basis points to 1.674% at the time of writing.Technical outlook: Gold price eyes $3,700The Gold price uptrend resumed on Monday with the non-yielding metal reaching a new all-time high of $3,682, before retreating somewhat below $3,680. Despite this, the yellow metal remains poised to test higher prices, but momentum in the short term opens the way for a pullback.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought signals, suggesting limited room for further upside in the near term.If Gold drops below the September 9 high of $3,674, the next stop would be $3,650, followed by the September 11 low of $3,613. If those two levels are taken, $3,600 would be up for grabs. On the flip side, if XAU/USD clears $3,682, the next resistance level would be $3,700. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:40 Silver Price Forecast: Bulls extend control as Silver trades at multi-year highs
Silver (XAG/USD) continues its rally on Monday, building on last week’s strong momentum to notch a fourth consecutive daily gain.

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The white metal is supported by a broadly weak US Dollar (USD) and retreating US Treasury yields as traders brace for a pivotal Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut is fully priced in, but the real focus lies on how dovish the forward outlook will be.At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $42.65, up nearly 1% on the day and marking its strongest level since 6 September 2011. The weaker Greenback makes precious metals more attractive for non-USD holders, while falling real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like silver. Broader safe-haven demand and firm industrial consumption trends add to the supportive backdrop.From a technical perspective, Silver remains firmly bullish, with price action holding well above key moving averages. The metal trades comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $39.96 and the 50-day SMA at $38.79, underscoring strong upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 75, deep in overbought territory but reflecting persistent demand, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 31.98, confirming the strength of the prevailing uptrend.On the upside, immediate resistance comes at the $43.00 psychological level, followed by $43.40, the peak from 5 September 2011. A sustained break above these barriers would open the door for a move toward $44.24, the high from 24 August 2011. On the downside, first support is seen at $41.50, followed by $40.50 and the $40.00 round figure.Speculative positioning adds weight to the bullish tone but also raises caution. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report shows non-commercial speculators holding 72,450 long contracts against just 18,513 shorts. Commercial participants, by contrast, remain heavily net short at 113,565 contracts. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

21:30 Dow Jones Industrial Average brushes off trade headlines to worry about Fed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stuck close to its opening bids on Monday, testing the waters near 45,860 as investors shuffle their feet ahead of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate call slated for Wednesday.

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:03 Breaking: Gold hits $3,680, eyes $3,700 as Fed decision looms
Gold Price rallies past the previous record high of $3,674, hits $3,681 poised to challenge the $3,700 in the near term, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

18:44 EUR/USD extends gains as Fed cut bets weigh on US Dollar
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day on Monday, as the Greenback remains under pressure amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

18:33 United States FX Today: US Dollar holds steady ahead of Retail Sales data
The US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on Monday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) shedding 0.2% on the day, as markets await the closely watched August Retail Sales figures, due on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.

18:18 GBP/USD climbs as Fed-BoE policy divergence favors Sterling
The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session as traders are set to digest monetary policy meetings by major central banks across the Atlantic.

17:58 Canada FX Today: The Canadian Dollar awaits decisive CPI data
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moving cautiously at the start of the week against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/CAD Forex pair hovering around 1.3835, down very slightly over the session.

17:17 EUR/CHF steadies as Euro gains from ECB hawkish tone, Swiss disinflation deepens
EUR/CHF kicks off the week on a positive note, attracting fresh buying interest after briefly falling to its lowest level since August 1 late last week.

16:31 NZD among worst G10 performers in 2025 – Rabobank
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has not performed well in 2025. It is the third worse performing G10 currency in the year to date after the CAD and the USD and the second worst performer after the JPY in the half year to date, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has not performed well in 2025. It is the third worse performing G10 currency in the year to date after the CAD and the USD and the second worst performer after the JPY in the half year to date, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. RBNZ easing bias and weak economy weigh on kiwi"The poor performance of the NZD this year reflects the easing bias of the RBNZ, New Zealand’s lengthy bout of economic weakness, its links with the weak Chinese economy and the larger than expected 15% Trump trade tariff imposed on the country on August 1. We see risk of short-covering pressure in favour of the USD on a 1-to-3-month view which could result in dips towards the NZD/USD0.58 area. That said, we see a move to the NZD/USD0.61 area on a 12-month view.""Today’s release of New Zealand’s August food price inflation index will provide economists with a better insight as to whether CPI inflation is likely to remain above the RBNZ’s 1% to 3% target in the current quarter. In July food prices rose by 0.7% m/m (5.0% y/y) following a 1.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) boost in June. In Q2 CPI inflation registered 2.7% y/y. While this was a touch softer than expected, it is clearly well above the RBNZ’s 1% to 3% target. Despite the backdrop of sticky inflation pressures, the consensus view in the market is that RBNZ rates have further to fall – not least because policymakers have explicitly warned of more easing.""While the NZD has outperformed the USD this year, this is mostly a function of the poor tone of the greenback. CFTC positioning data highlight that speculators’ have been short USD for months and, while further Fed easing is expected this week, there are a lot of Fed rate cuts already in the price of the greenback over the next 12 months or so. For this reason, we see scope for broad-based pullbacks in favour of the USD in the coming weeks. In view of the weak economic backdrop in New Zealand and the dovish tone of the RBNZ, this indicates there is risk for dips to the NZD/USD0.58 area on a 1-to-3-month view."

16:05 GBP/JPY climbs past 200.00, BoE and BoJ monetary policy meetings in focus
The British Pound (GBP) is extending its winning streak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, with the cross trading near its strongest level in more than a year.

15:53 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range of 7.1160/7.1330 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1160/7.1330. In the longer run, room for USD to drop below 7.1100; any decline is likely to be slow, and 7.1000 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1160/7.1330. In the longer run, room for USD to drop below 7.1100; any decline is likely to be slow, and 7.1000 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Room for USD to drop below 7.110024-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade in a range between 7.1080 and 7.1240' last Friday. However, after dipping briefly to 7.1128, USD rebounded strongly to a high of 7.1296. Upward momentum has increased, but not significantly. Today, we expect USD to trade in a higher range of 7.1160/7.1330." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Monday (08 Sep, spot at 7.1285), we indicated that 'downward bias is building, but USD must first close below 7.1100 before a sustained decline can be expected.' USD subsequently edged lower, and we highlighted last Friday (12 Sep, spot at 7.1140) that 'there is room for USD to drop below 7.1100.' However, we pointed out that 'given that there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, the pace of any decline is likely to be slow.' We added, 'the major support at 7.1000 may not come into view so soon.' We will maintain the same view as long as 7.1350 (no change ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."

15:51 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range of 147.20/148.15 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 147.20/148.15. In the longer run, a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 147.20/148.15. In the longer run, a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements24-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated last Friday that 'there has been a slight increase in downward momentum,' we were of the view that 'this is likely to lead to a lower range of 146.75/147.65 rather than a sustained decline.' We were incorrect, as USD traded between 147.10 and 148.07, before closing at 147.66 (+0.31%). This time around, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and this is likely to lead to USD trading in a higher range of 147.20/148.15." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected USD to trade in a range since early last week. Last Friday (12 Sep, spot at 147.25), we stated that 'we continue to expect range-trading, but a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.' There is no change in our view."

15:47 USD/CNH steady near 7.1200 lows – BBH
USD/CNH is consolidating near cyclical lows as China’s August activity data disappointed, with retail sales, industrial production, and investment all losing momentum.

USD/CNH is consolidating near cyclical lows as China’s August activity data disappointed, with retail sales, industrial production, and investment all losing momentum. Beijing is set to rely on infrastructure spending to hit its 5% growth goal, a strategy supportive for commodities but negative for long-term rebalancing, BBH FX analysts report. China August data underscores slowing growth"USD/CNH is consolidating around recent cyclical lows near 7.1200. China’s August real sector data was weak.""In the first eight months of the year, retail sales growth slowed to 4.6% y/y (consensus: 4.7%) vs. 4.8% in July, industrial production growth eased to 6.2% y/y (consensus: 6.2%) vs. 6.3% in July, and fixed asset investment growth unexpectedly slumped to a five-year low of 0.5% y/y (consensus: 1.5%) vs. 1.6% in July. Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment growth dropped to 4.2% y/y vs. 5.3% in July." "Regardless, China will continue to lean on infrastructure spending to hit its 5% growth target because of structural constrains blocking a real shift toward consumption. That’s good for commodity prices but bad for China’s long-term economic health."

15:41 NZD/USD might break above 0.599 – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 0.5935 and 0.5965. In the longer run, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.5990; the scope for further advance may be limited, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 0.5935 and 0.5965. In the longer run, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.5990; the scope for further advance may be limited, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Scope for further advance may be limited24-HOUR VIEW: "While we held the view that 'there is room for NZD to rise further,' last Friday, we pointed out that 'overbought conditions suggest that it is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5990 today.' NZD then rose to a high of 0.5979 and then pulled back to a low of 0.5942. The price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, expected to be between 0.5935 and 0.5965." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have been holding a positive NZD stance since early last week (see annotations in the chart below). Tracking the subsequent price movements, we highlighted last Tuesday (09 Sep, spot at 0.5940) that NZD 'is likely to continue to rise, but it remains to be seen if the major resistance at 0.5990 is within reach.' After NZD rose further, we indicated last Friday (12 Sep, spot at 0.5970) that 'while there is a chance for NZD to rise above 0.5990, we believe the scope for further advance may be limited.' We added, 'looking ahead, the next level to watch above 0.5990 is 0.6010.' Our view remains unchanged. On the downside, a breach of 0.5925 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that NZD is not rising further."

15:37 EUR/USD steady above 1.1700 despite France downgrade – BBH
EUR/USD is range-bound above 1.1700, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is range-bound above 1.1700, BBH FX analysts report. Fitch cuts France to ‘A+’, outlook stable"France’s fiscal troubles are unlikely to knock EUR/USD off its upward path. Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch from 'AA-' to 'A+' with a stable outlook. According to Fitch, the downgrade was due to 'growing political division and polarization' increasing the likelihood of further delays to fiscal consolidation." "Fortunately, France’s fiscal woes remain country-specific and not spreading to the rest of the Eurozone. French bond yield spreads vs. German bunds are widening but Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond spreads vs. Germany show no signs of stress."

15:32 AUD/USD: The next level to watch is 0.6700 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to consolidate in a range between 0.6625 and 0.6665. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest a higher AUD; the next level to watch is 0.6700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to consolidate in a range between 0.6625 and 0.6665. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest a higher AUD; the next level to watch is 0.6700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action continues to suggest a higher AUD24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD staged a sharp rise that reached a high of 0.6665 last Thursday. On Friday, we noted that 'strong momentum indicates likely further strengthening of AUD, but overbought conditions suggest that 0.6700 is likely out of reach for now.' However, instead of strengthening further, AUD traded in a range of 0.6631/0.6668 before settling at 0.6648 (-0.20%). AUD appears to have entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a range between 0.6625 and 0.6665." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (12 Sep, spot at 0.6665). As highlighted, the recent 'price action continues to suggest a higher AUD, and the next level to watch above 0.6670 is 0.6700.' Overall, only a breach of 0.6590 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the AUD strength from early last week (see annotations in chart below) has run its course."

15:31 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index below expectations (5) in September: Actual (-8.7)
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index below expectations (5) in September: Actual (-8.7)

15:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2% below forecasts (1.3%) in July
Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2% below forecasts (1.3%) in July

15:24 CAD up marginally vs. USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, its modest strength hinting to a renewed recovery echoing similar attempts observed in early and mid/late August, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Os

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, its modest strength hinting to a renewed recovery echoing similar attempts observed in early and mid/late August, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. CAD underperforms on crosses into Wednesday’s BoC"This week’s domestic calendar is heavy, with the highlight being Wednesday’s BoC where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25bpt cut. This is a non-MPR meeting, meaning that there will be no forecast update. We remain CAD bulls on the basis of the outlook for relative central bank policy given that the BoC is much closer to its neutral rate—relative to the Fed.""For Monday we look to the release of manufacturing sales ahead of Tuesday’s CPI. We’ll also receive international securities transactions data on Wednesday, and retail sales on Friday. Our USD/CAD FV estimate is currently at 1.3638 and a narrower estimate based solely on 2Y US-Canada yield spreads is at 1.3952." "The RSI reveals neutral momentum just above the 50 level as we note the third attempt at a bearish reversal following similar moves in early August and mid/late August. We look to a potential extension of this reversal toward the 50 day MA (1.3770) trend level and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3780 support and 1.3880 resistance."

15:23 GBP/USD: Above 1.3595, a move toward 1.3635 can be expected – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade sideways. Slight increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade sideways. Slight increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A move toward 1.3635 is possible above 1.359524-HOUR VIEW: " The following are excerpts from our update last Friday: 'There has been a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.3595. A break above this level is not ruled out, but based on the current momentum, GBP is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level. Support is at 1.3550; a breach of 1.3535 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. GBP traded in a sideways range of 1.3525/1.3578. Momentum indicators are turning flat, suggesting further sideways trading today, most likely between 1.3525 and 1.3575." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Monday (08 Sep, spot at 1.3480), we highlighted that 'the current price movements are likely part of a broad range between 1.3430 and 1.3595.' After GBP rose to a high of 1.3583 and closed at 1.3573 on Thursday, we indicated on Friday (12 Sep, spot at 1.3565) that 'there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise just yet.' We also indicated that GBP 'must break and hold above 1.3595 before a move toward 1.3635 can be expected.' We will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong support’ level at 1.3510 is not breached."

15:18 EUR extending post-ECB gains – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is a mid-performer among the G10, building on last week’s gains (against US Dollar (USD)) catalyzed by the decidedly neutral ECB meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is a mid-performer among the G10, building on last week’s gains (against US Dollar (USD)) catalyzed by the decidedly neutral ECB meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Spreads offer support and markets shrug off Fitch France rating cut"The outlook for relative central bank policy remains a core component of our bullish EUR view, and is likely to be underscored by this week’s expectedly dovish Fed. EZ-US yield spreads are steady at their recent highs, and the euro area bond market remains quiescent despite Fitch’s cut to France’s credit rating (A+ from AA-) on Friday." "France’s 10Y yield continues to trade in tandem with Italy’s. In terms of data, the euro area trade balance (for July) came in lower than expected, and the highlight of this week will be Tuesday’s ZEW investor sentiment. The ECB speaking calendar is heavy, with President Lagarde scheduled to speak on both Monday and Tuesday." "We are bullish following last week’s break of descending resistance. The renewed bullishness has us looking to a break of Tuesday’s high in the upper 1.17s, targeting 1.18 followed by a possible push to fresh multi-year highs. The RSI is confirming the shift in momentum, recovering from neutral levels with a climb to decidedly bullish levels nearing 60."

15:03 Gold consolidates below record highs as Fed rate cut looms
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a cautious footing, extending late last week’s sideways momentum after peaking at an all-time high near $3,675 on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold remains rangebound below $3,650 on Monday, consolidating after last week’s all-time high near $3,675.The Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday dominates market sentiment, with a 25 bps cut seen as certain.XAU/USD continues to consolidate between $3,620-$3,650, with the 21-SMA providing short-term support.Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a cautious footing, extending late last week’s sideways momentum after peaking at an all-time high near $3,675 on Tuesday. The price action reflects a lack of conviction, as investors hold back from making bold bets ahead of a pivotal week packed with central bank monetary policy decisions.At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,645 after bouncing from intraday lows near $3,626, with the $3,650 barrier continuing to cap the upside. The spotlight is firmly on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision due on Wednesday. Markets are fully pricing a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, with a small possibility of a surprise jumbo 50 bps move. Alongside the Fed, monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of Canada (BoC) add to the event-heavy backdrop, potentially amplifying market volatility across asset classes, including Gold.Overall, broader sentiment continues to lend strong support to the precious metal. Subdued US Treasury yields, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), and lingering geopolitical risks all reinforce safe-haven demand, leaving Gold well-positioned near record highs with scope to extend its upward trajectory.Market movers: All eyes on Fed as monetary policy week beginsThe US Senate is set to vote on Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed Board on Monday, and a confirmation could allow him to join this week’s policy meeting. Some analysts believe that, if confirmed, he may advocate for a larger rate cut than markets currently expect.Recent US economic data has cemented expectations for Fed easing with clear signs of a cooling labor market and weakening consumer sentiment, even as inflation remains above the central bank's target. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the US economy added just 22K jobs in August, far below the 75K forecast, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest since late 2021. Jobless claims have climbed to multi-year highs, and prior payrolls were revised sharply lower, revealing a weaker employment picture than initially reported. The University of Michigan survey showed US consumer sentiment dropping to its lowest level since May, while the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% YoY from 2.7% in July, and core inflation remained steady at 3.1%. At the producer level, the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly slipped, underscoring softer wholesale price pressures.The data highlights mounting downside risks to employment, raising concerns that softer hiring and fragile confidence could weigh further on household spending and growth. Markets increasingly expect the Fed to prioritize maximum employment over price stability within its dual mandate, given that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive.While a quarter-point interest rate cut is seen as a done deal, traders are focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections, which will shape the trajectory of monetary policy into year-end. How policymakers balance softer growth signals against sticky inflation will be key in determining whether Gold extends its record-setting rally or remains locked in consolidation mode.Technical analysis: XAU/USD rangebound between $3,620-$3,650XAU/USD remains rangebound on the 4-hour chart, with price action capped by repeated failures around the $3,650 psychological mark, signaling market indecision. The consolidation comes after last week’s all-time high near $3,675, with momentum indicators pointing to a pause rather than a reversal.The 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is flat around $3,641 and acting as immediate support within the range, helping to cushion intraday dips. Below that, the $3,626-$3,630 zone marks the lower boundary of the consolidation, while the 50-SMA near $3,613 provides an additional layer of protection should selling pressure deepen.On the upside, bulls need a decisive break above the $3,650 ceiling to regain momentum. A clean 4-hour close above this level would open the door for a retest of the all-time high at $3,675, with scope to extend toward $3,700 if follow-through buying emerges.Momentum indicators confirm the consolidation bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 58, while the Average Directional Index (ADX), around 31, has eased from earlier highs, pointing to waning trend strength and reinforcing the view that Gold is in a holding pattern. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:55 NZD/USD ticks up to near 0.5960 as Fed dovish bets weigh on US Dollar
The NZD/USD pair edges higher to near 0.5960 during the late European trading session on Monday. The Kiwi pair gains marginally as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

14:50 EUR/GBP hits fresh lows near 0.8630 after France’s debt downgrade
The Euro gave away gains from the previous two trading days on Monday, extending its reversal from Friday’s high above 0.8660 to a fresh two-week low at 0.8632, weighed by Fitch’s downgrade of France’s sovereign ratings.The ratings agency announced over the weekend its decision to cut the ranking of

14:45 USD trading defensively as markets eye Wednesday’s Fed – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is entering the week with a defensive posture and trading with broad weakness against all of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) is entering the week with a defensive posture and trading with broad weakness against all of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD trading broadly lower vs. G10"The GBP is outperforming with a 0.3% gain, ahead of a data-heavy (jobs, CPI) week that also includes Thursday’s BoE (exp. hold). Skandies NOK and SEK are also leading their peers, and extending their gains to fresh multi-year highs vs. the USD. The JPY is once again trading above its 50 day MA and continues to exhibit a tentatively bullish posture as we approach Friday’s BoJ—a widely anticipated hold, albeit one that is expected to deliver a hawkish tone with a clear intention to raise rates in either October or December." "The EUR continues to build on last week’s ECB-driven gains and is likely to remain well supported through Wednesday’s Fed. The relative underperformance of AUD, CAD, MXN and NZD may hint to some concerns about the quality of the broader market’s tone. In equities, the (S&P 500) e-minis are looking well supported trading just below Friday’s record high while US yields appear to be stabilizing just above last week’s lows—the 10Y having found support around 4% and the having bounced at 3.5%. The price of crude (WTI) is once again attempting stabilization around $62.50/bbl and the price of copper looks well supported as it consolidates last week’s rally to a fresh recovery high." "Gold prices are also consolidating, appearing to tread water ahead of this week’s main risk event—Wednesday’s FOMC. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bpt rate cut, to 4.25%, and the tone is expected to lean dovish given expectations for a series of cuts as markets are pricing a cumulative 70bpts of easing by year-end and just shy of 150bpts by year-end 2026. For Monday, the NA release calendar is relatively light and limited to the Empire manufacturing survey at 8:30am ET. There are no scheduled Fed speakers, given the blackout period ahead of Wednesday."

14:44 ECB’s Schnabel: Interest rates are in good place
European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are in a good place and added that upside risks to inflation continue to dominate.

14:42 USD: Is fiscal dominance coming? – Commerzbank
After a nine-month pause, the US Federal Reserve is expected to resume its cycle of interest rate cuts this week. The big question is how far will it go?

After a nine-month pause, the US Federal Reserve is expected to resume its cycle of interest rate cuts this week. The big question is how far will it go? US President Trump has already made it clear that he wants to see cuts to a key interest rate of around 1% (from the current 4.25-4.50%), and probably as quickly as possible. Given the risk of stagflation in the wake of US tariffs, such a sharp easing of monetary policy would be disastrous for the US Dollar (USD), Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Trump wants the Fed to help the Treasury finance the national debt"Trump's motives are clear. He pointed out himself that the Treasury would save USD 1 trillion if interest rates fell to such a low level. In other words, he wants the Fed to help the Treasury finance the national debt. The technical term for this is 'fiscal dominance'. In this case, monetary policy is not primarily guided by the mandate of price stability (and maximum employment), but by the affordability of government debt. This causes the central bank to lose credibility, which in the worst case can lead to a significant increase in inflation expectations and ultimately to currency destabilization.""Both Trump's Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who is leading the search for a new Fed chair, and Stephen Miran, who could take Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's place on the FOMC as early as this week, have in the past, or in Bessent's case only recently, expressed criticism of an instrument that is important for fiscal dominance. Namely, QE (quantitative easing), the central bank's asset purchases. Miran criticized that the use of QE to combat the Great Financial Crisis had not been subject to political oversight. Bessent even questions the effectiveness of QE and points to unintended side effects.""Bessent's views in particular could have important implications. He argues that QE should only be used in crisis situations and should be halted as soon as they end. This could indicate that Bessent is in favor of a faster reduction of the Fed's balance sheet. The central bank has already significantly reduced its balance sheet following the pandemic in order to combat accelerating inflation. However, the pace of reduction has slowed again since spring this year. A return to faster reduction, especially of government bond holdings, would reduce the effectiveness of the interest rate cuts demanded by Trump – which in turn would benefit the US dollar."

14:11 USD/JPY declines to near 147.30 as US Dollar falls, Fed-BoJ policy eyed
The USD/JPY pair falls sharply to near 147.30 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the monetary-easing campaign on Wednesday.

14:06 USD: Gearing up for Wednesday's FOMC meeting – ING
A public holiday in Japan has seen a quiet start to the week in global FX markets. In terms of overnight news, there were note some soft China activity data that calls out for some more stimulus.

A public holiday in Japan has seen a quiet start to the week in global FX markets. In terms of overnight news, there were note some soft China activity data that calls out for some more stimulus. One can also note the rally in Korean asset markets after the government scrapped a planned lowering in the threshold for the capital gains tax. This has dragged USD/KRW away from 1400 again, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY to continue trading in a tight 97.20-98.00 range"Looking ahead, it's a big week for central bank meetings. Five of the G10 central banks are meeting, and three of them are expected to cut. The highlight, of course, is Wednesday's FOMC meeting. We and a strong consensus are looking for a 25bp cut, then two further 25bp cuts in October and December. The market currently prices 68bp of the 75bp in expected cuts this year. We see the dollar staying gently offered into the meeting, and it could sell off a little further should a 50bp cut at the meeting prove a closer call than most expect.""Beyond the FOMC meetings, highlights of this week's US calendar are Tuesday's release of August retail sales data and Thursday's release of weekly jobless claims and July Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Last week's jump in jobless claims briefly hit the dollar, and the TIC data will be scrutinised for any signs that foreign investors are not just hedging US assets, but outright selling them.""We still think there are some seasonal effects keeping the dollar gently supported, but this week's FOMC should set the tone into the fourth quarter. Expect DXY to continue trading in a tight 97.20-98.00 range until Wednesday evening."

14:00 India Trade Deficit Government declined to $26.49B in August from previous $27.35B
India Trade Deficit Government declined to $26.49B in August from previous $27.35B

14:00 Specs extend Copper longs to one-year high – ING
The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their longs of COMEX Copper by 3,320 lots for a fifth consecutive week to 37,971 lots as of 9 September, the highest since 1 October 2024, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their longs of COMEX Copper by 3,320 lots for a fifth consecutive week to 37,971 lots as of 9 September, the highest since 1 October 2024, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Gold and Silver net longs trimmed"The move was largely driven by rising gross longs by 3,365 lots to 49,808 lots over the reporting week. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX Gold decreased by 2,445 lots after reporting gains for two straight weeks to 166,417 lots over the reporting week. Similarly, speculators decreased the net longs of Silver by 3,254 lots after reporting gains for three consecutive weeks to 37,768 lots as of Tuesday.""Meanwhile, recent Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) data shows that weekly inventories for most of the base metals rose over the reporting week. Copper stocks rose by 12,203 tonnes for a second consecutive week to 94,054 tonnes as of last Friday, the highest since the week ending on 20 June 2025." "Meanwhile, Zinc stocks rose for an eleventh straight week, increasing by 7,617 tonnes (+8.8% week-on-week) to 94,649 tonnes (the highest since 9 August 2024) at the end of last week. Aluminium and nickel inventories also rose by 3.6% WoW and 1.9% WoW over the week. In contrast, lead inventories fell by just 273 tonnes (-0.4% WoW) to 66,561 tonnes."

13:49 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Drifts towards 0.79509 amid growing bearish traction
The US Dollar keeps trading within the last few days’ range against the Swiss Franc, but intra-day technical indicators start showing an incipient bearish momentum as the pair approaches 0.7950 following rejection at 0.7972.The USDollar Index, which measures the value of the US Dollar against the mo

13:48 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates gains above $3,615
Gold failed to find acceptance above the $3,660 area and is trading lower on Thursday, returning to $3,620, as the US Dollar appreciates for the third consecutive day, with all eyes on the US Consumer Prices Index release.

13:46 GBP: A much busier week for sterling – ING
Pound Sterling (GBP) faces a much busier week. The highlight is Thursday's MPC meeting. But before then, we have the jobs/earnings figures tomorrow and then the August CPI release on Wednesday, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) faces a much busier week. The highlight is Thursday's MPC meeting. But before then, we have the jobs/earnings figures tomorrow and then the August CPI release on Wednesday, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.GBP/USD might break above resistance at 1.3590/3600 this week"Unless we see some surprise drop in employment and/or wages/services inflation, it looks like the Bank of England will continue the hawkish narrative it introduced at the August MPC meeting. This has resonated with investors, where the market only prices 8bp of rate cuts this year and a total of 40bp by next summer.""The divergence in UK inflation from that of the eurozone and the US is quite rare, and one can argue now that the UK price data is far more important than the activity data in determining when the BoE is prepared to deliver the next leg in its easing cycle.""Elsewhere, the travails of the UK Labour government have not dented appetites for the high-yielding pound. We think EUR/GBP looks comfortable in its 0.86-0.87 range, while GBP/USD could break above resistance at 1.3590/3600 this week if the Fed is sufficiently dovish."

13:44 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.1650/1.1790 – UOB Group
Momentum indicators are mostly flat; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1705/1.1755. In the longer run, EUR could rise but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1650/1.1790, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Momentum indicators are mostly flat; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1705/1.1755. In the longer run, EUR could rise but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1650/1.1790, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Momentum indicators are mostly flat24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR dropped briefly to a low of 1.1161 last Thursday and then rebounded strongly. On Friday, when EUR was at 1.1735, we stated that 'the rebound has scope to test 1.1760.' Our expectation did not materialise, as EUR traded in a quiet manner between 1.1700 and 1.1747, closing unchanged at 1.1733. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and EUR is likely to continue to range-trade today, probably in a range of 1.1705/1.1755." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from a week ago (08 Sep, spot at 1.17150), we highlighted that EUR 'could rise but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1650/1.1790.' Since then, EUR has been trading within a range of 1.1661/1.1779. There has been no clear increase in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range of 1.1650/1.1790."

13:41 TRY: Frequent resets – Commerzbank
Turkey’s balance of payments data for July was rather encouraging. The current-account balance was only slightly in deficit (seasonally-adjusted) and reversed some of the strains observed in the preceding months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

Turkey’s balance of payments data for July was rather encouraging. The current-account balance was only slightly in deficit (seasonally-adjusted) and reversed some of the strains observed in the preceding months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Lira to keep depreciating at a fast pace"It still cannot be viewed as a clear _improvement_ to $1.8bn surplus like Minister Mehmet Simsek implied in his tweet following the data – because July and August are tourist season peaks and frequently record strong performance – adjusted for seasonality, the reading still works out to a deficit. Nevertheless, as the chart below shows, the current-account trend was improving in recent months.""What is more, July recorded a particularly strong month for capital inflows: with net portfolio inflow in the $5bn region and net bank sector inflow in the $10bn range. Sentiment was clearly calming down from the politically volatile February-April. It is a pity that things had to reverse 180 degrees so quickly." "After the court ruling on the Istanbul CHP, FX intervention once again became a staple of policy management, while the central bank has continued to cut rates in large steps. Such frequent resets to investor perception eventually takes a toll on broader asset performance. We forecast the lira to keep depreciating at a fast pace (currently, 42% annualised on a basket basis)."

13:38 EUR: French downgrade had been expected – ING
French sovereign bonds have been trading at spreads to swap rates consistent with multiple downgrades. It is no surprise then that French debt and the euro have not reacted too much to Friday evening's decision by Fitch to downgrade France one notch to A+, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

French sovereign bonds have been trading at spreads to swap rates consistent with multiple downgrades. It is no surprise then that French debt and the euro have not reacted too much to Friday evening's decision by Fitch to downgrade France one notch to A+, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Schnabel may push EUR higher "Locally, the focus is on how quickly, if at all, new French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu can focus the minds of a disparate National Assembly on the unpopular but essential path of fiscal consolidation. One of Lecornu's first moves has been to abandon plans to eliminate two public holidays. Expect FX market players to keep one eye on French debt, even though our core view is that this is not going to broaden into another eurozone crisis.""It is not a big week for eurozone data, but there are plenty of speakers scheduled across the bloc. Our focus today is on a speech from the European Central Bank's Isabel Schnabel at 1:30pm CET. She's been sounding quite hawkish recently, describing the ECB's 2.00% deposit rate as 'mildly accommodative' and warning that central banks may end up raising rates much sooner than investors expect. Her speech is a mildly positive event risk for EUR/USD and short-dated euro swap rates today.""Expect EUR/USD to continue trading a tight 1.1700-1750 and await its next cue from Wednesday's FOMC meeting."

13:02 China’s steel output falls – ING
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning show that China’s primary aluminium production fell marginally by 0.5% YoY to 3.8mt in August, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning show that China’s primary aluminium production fell marginally by 0.5% YoY to 3.8mt in August, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.China announces plans to cut steel production"However, cumulative production rose 2.2% YoY to 30.1mt over the first eight months of the year, due to new project additions in the country and a high-capacity utilisation rate.""In other metals, monthly crude steel production fell 0.7% YoY for a fourth straight month to 77.4mt last month, as mills have been reducing output since May to improve margins. On a year-to-date basis, crude steel production totalled 671.8mt for the first eight months, down 2.8% YoY." "At the end of last month, China announced plans to cut steel production and curb new capacity between 2025 and 2026. The country would achieve annual steel output cuts by forcing the closure of outdated and inefficient furnaces and supporting the development of advanced enterprises."

12:56 RUB: CBR cut rate by less but will probably continue to cut – Commerzbank
The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a smaller interest rate cut on Friday than the median consensus estimate of 200bp (it cut by 100bp from 18% to 17%).

The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a smaller interest rate cut on Friday than the median consensus estimate of 200bp (it cut by 100bp from 18% to 17%). Nearer the time of the meeting, expectations were, in fact, swinging towards the dovish-end of the spectrum because news about a downturn in the real economy were abounding. Prior to that, a rate cut by 100bp would have been a reasonable base-case, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to continue to rise"Trends in the real economy are somewhat conflicting: on the one hand, growth in the first seven months of 2025 has averaged near the lower end of the central bank’s 1%-2% projection for the year. On the other hand, Governor Elvira Nabiullina noted on Friday that, after seasonal adjustment, demand had been stronger in Q2 than in Q1.""Whatever the correct picture, CBR remains hawkish. The MPC statement noted that underlying measures of current price growth have not changed significantly, hence the CB needs to maintain monetary conditions as tight as possible in order to return inflation to the target during 2026. This is consistent with Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s earlier assessment that inflation was only appearing to cool because seasonally anticipated price moderation happened to arrive early this year. Nabiullina’s remark from Friday clarifies on what CBR’s concern truly is.""At this time, it is difficult to see why the economy would turn around in the months ahead. We may find month-on-month inflation indicators remaining sideways, but the real economy continuing to decline further. In this scenario, we would anticipate another 100bp rate cut at the 24 October CBR meeting. The outlook further out will remain a question mark. But in conclusion, it no longer appears likely that the key rate can hit 14% by the end of this year. This is a modest revision of outlook towards hawkish. Still, we forecast the ‘artificial’ USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates to continue to rise, especially in the event that the US and EU announce new harsh sanctions on Russian oil in the wake of last week’s incident in Poland."

12:43 Robust oil demand from China – ING
The oil market rose for a second straight session in the early trading session today, following claims by Ukraine that recent drone attacks affected Russia’s two key oil hubs in the Baltic Sea.

The oil market rose for a second straight session in the early trading session today, following claims by Ukraine that recent drone attacks affected Russia’s two key oil hubs in the Baltic Sea. Recent reports suggest that the latest strikes temporarily suspended crude operations at Primorsk port, Russia's largest oil-loading port, at the end of last week. Meanwhile, there are suggestions that three pumping stations pushing crude to Ust-Luga were also targeted, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Cpeculators reduce their net long in ICE Brent"Chinese data released this morning shows refiners processed almost 15m b/d of crude oil in August, up 7.6% year-on-year, following robust imports and higher domestic production. In addition, apparent oil demand in the country rose to 14.53m b/d last month, up 4.9% YoY.""Meanwhile, the recent Baker Hughes data shows that oil drilling activity in the US expanded for a third week straight, as crude oil prices recovered amid growing geopolitical risks. The number of active oil rigs in the US rose by two over the last week, leaving the total number of oil rigs at 416, the highest level seen since mid-July.""The latest positioning data shows that NYMEX WTI saw aggressive speculative selling, with managed money net longs declining by 14,630 lots to 12,657 lots in the week ending 9 September. This is the least bullish position on record that speculators have held in WTI since June 2006. Similarly, speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots over the reporting week. The move largely follows OPEC+’s latest decision to boost its oil production, along with the IEA’s latest projection for a record oil surplus for the next year."

12:33 China: Weaker August may prompt more policy support – Standard Chartered
Growth momentum further slowed in August despite resilient trade performance. FAI disappointed the most, while IP remained relatively stable and retail sales appeared to stabilise.

Growth momentum further slowed in August despite resilient trade performance. FAI disappointed the most, while IP remained relatively stable and retail sales appeared to stabilise. Continued weakness in data may prompt acceleration in policy implementation and increased support, Standard Chartered's economists report. Alarming deterioration in investment"August real activity data points to a broad-based weakening, especially in investment. In an alarming sign, investment contraction extended beyond the housing sector. Property investment plunged again by 19.4% y/y, and both manufacturing and infrastructure FAI continued to decline. Adverse weather conditions and recent capacity management actions may have weighed on capex. We think fiscal implementation needs to be accelerated to support FAI going forward.""Consumer goods retail sales growth slowed further to 3.4% y/y in August, but turned positive on a m/m basis. While the resumption of the goods trade-in programme likely provided some support, its effectiveness could diminish, as we have flagged. The government has recently allocated more fiscal resources to support households, which should cushion retail sales going forward. Meanwhile, the services sector remained a stabiliser in 7M-2025: services retail sales growth stayed solid at 5.1% y/y and services production index growth was robust at 5.6% y/y over the period.""Persistent downward pressure on growth could prompt more policy action. The government may accelerate implementation of the current budget and it has hinted at pre-allocation of the 2026 debt-swap bond quota. We expect one more 10bps policy rate cut in Q4, with a small risk of a slightly earlier cut, following our expected Fed rate cut in September. The PBoC is also likely to maintain ample liquidity and resume China government bond (CGB) purchases to accommodate government bond issuance."

12:31 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:18 ECB’s Kazimir: We must not change policy due to small deviations from inflation target
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that “we must not change policy due to small deviations from inflation target.“

12:11 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 173.00 support near nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of losses, trading around 173.10 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a persistent bullish bias as the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

12:01 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. up to €5.3B in July from previous €2.8B
Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. up to €5.3B in July from previous €2.8B

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €12.4B, above expectations (€11.7B) in July
Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €12.4B, above expectations (€11.7B) in July

11:44 USD/CAD pulls back, nearing 1.3830 with central banks on focus
The US Dollar is trading moderately lower on Monday, but still trading within Friday’s range above 1,3830.

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The US Dollar is trading moderately lower on Monday, but still trading within Friday’s range above 1,3830. The downbeat US consumer confidence data released on Friday added bearish pressure on the USD, but investors are wary of shorting the Greenback ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

The Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan revealed that US consumers have grown more cautious amid the higher prices, adding to evidence that the impact of Trump’s tariffs is starting to pinch the US economy.

September’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 55.4, its weakest reading since May, from 58.2 in August, and well below the 58.0 reading forecasted by market analysts. Beyond that, inflation expectations for the year remained steady while the long-term inflation outlook rose for the second straight month.These figures add pressure on the Fed to ease interest rates on Wednesday and strengthen the case of a dovish turn at the bank’s forward guidance. Such an outcome would have negative consequences for the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar, however, is failing to take a significant advantage from US Dollar weakness, as the Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Before that, the Canadian CPI prices are expected to show further moderation in August, paving the path for BoC’s rate cut. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

11:42 Dow Jones futures advance as traders expect Fed to reduce interest rates
Dow Jones futures climb by 0.13% to trade above 45,900 during European hours on Monday, ahead of the United States (US) market open. Moreover, the S&P 500 futures advance 0.15% to trade near 6,600, while Nasdaq 100 futures edge up 0.06% to trade above 24,100.

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Moreover, the S&P 500 futures advance 0.15% to trade near 6,600, while Nasdaq 100 futures edge up 0.06% to trade above 24,100.US stock futures appreciate as market sentiment improves ahead of the looming Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision due on Wednesday. Traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with a slim possibility of a 50-basis-point move. Markets have also priced in continued easing through 2026 to guard against a potential recession.The University of Michigan’s (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index released Friday showed consumer sentiment fell to 55.4, worse than expected 58.0 in September, while long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.9% amid concerns over tariffs. However, investors are betting inflation remains subdued enough for the Fed to cut rates next week and possibly beyond.Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December.The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is set for release later in the North American session, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a reading of 4.5, down sharply from the prior 11.9. Traders are also keeping their eyes on whether President Donald Trump's economic adviser Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor before the policy meeting. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

11:39 AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6670 as Fed dovish bets improve market mood
The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6670 during the European trading session on Monday.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD advances to near 0.6670 as the market sentiment remains upbeat amid Fed dovish bets.The Fed is widely anticipated to cut interest rates on Wednesday.Investors await key US Retail Sales and the Australian employment data.The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6670 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers amid strong appeal for risk-sensitive assets due to firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the monetary-easing campaign on Wednesday. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.22% -0.15% -0.02% -0.26% -0.16% -0.02% EUR -0.00% -0.20% -0.19% -0.01% -0.21% -0.20% -0.03% GBP 0.22% 0.20% 0.06% 0.19% -0.01% 0.00% 0.06% JPY 0.15% 0.19% -0.06% 0.11% -0.07% -0.03% 0.14% CAD 0.02% 0.01% -0.19% -0.11% -0.14% -0.19% -0.13% AUD 0.26% 0.21% 0.01% 0.07% 0.14% 0.01% 0.16% NZD 0.16% 0.20% 0.00% 0.03% 0.19% -0.01% 0.07% CHF 0.02% 0.03% -0.06% -0.14% 0.13% -0.16% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). S&P500 futures trade higher during European trading hours, demonstrating upbeat market sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 97.50.Market experts have expressed confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates on Wednesday and anticipates further monetary-easing in the remainder of the year amid growing labor market risks. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have forecasted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in all three remaining monetary policy announcements this year, citing downside labor market risks, with threats of high inflation remaining in place.This week, investors will also focus on the United States (US) Retail Sales data for August, which will be released on Tuesday. The Retail Sales data is estimated to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.3%.In Australia, investors await the employment data for August, which is scheduled for Thursday. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4.2%. The economy is expected to have added 21.2K fresh workers, slightly lower than the prior reading of 24.5K. Signs of steady job market will likely weigh on market expectations of supporting interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the policy meeting later this month. Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Sep 17, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.25% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

11:23 Pound Sterling gains ahead of Fed and BoE monetary policy decisions
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher at the start of the week against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rises at the start of the week ahead of the Fed and BoE monetary policy announcements.Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates, while the BoE is seen holding them steady.UK headline CPI is estimated at a faster pace of 3.9% in August.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher at the start of the week against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session. The GBP/USD pair rises to near 1.3580 as the US Dollar trades cautiously, with investors awaiting monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally down near 97.50.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 94,2% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25% in the policy announcement on Wednesday. Fed dovish speculation has been intensified due to growing labor market concerns.Meanwhile, the BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4% as inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom (UK) economy are continuing to prove persistent.Daily digest market movers: Investors await key US-UK economic dataInvestors brace for a significant volatility in the Pound Sterling this week as the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending July and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August are also scheduled to be released this week on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show that the ILO Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.7%. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown at an annual pace of 4.8%, slower that the prior reading of 5%. However, the wage growth measure including bonuses is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 4.7 from the former reading of 4.6%.Lately, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has warned of downside labor market risks and guided that the monetary policy path will remain downwards.Meanwhile, the UK headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.9%, the highest level in 19 months. BoE officials would need to perform a delicate balancing act if the inflation data shows signs of growth and the labor market faces slowdown.In the US, investors await the Retail Sales figures for August, which will be published on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.3% against 0.5% in July.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling edges higher to near 1.3580 against the US Dollar on Monday. The near-term trend of the Cable remains sideways as it trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3508.The Cable trades inside the Ascending Triangle chart pattern, which indicates indecisiveness among investors. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the July 23 high around 1.3585, while the upward-sloping border is placed from the August 1 low near 1.3140.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Looking down, the August 1 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 1 high near 1.3800 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:15 US Dollar Index (DXY) treads water around 97.60 with all eyes on the Fed
The US Dollar has opened the week on a moderate bearish tone, but price action remains trapped within previous ranges, highlighting a hesitant market, with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of the Fed decision, due next Wednesday.

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US consumers said that higher prices have prompted them to limit their purchasing activity, with 60% mentioning trade tariffs as a key concern. Short-term inflation expectations remained steady, while, in the longer run, price pressures are expected to rise further.

These figures, together with the moderate inflation figures seen earlier last week, practically confirm a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, and probably also a dovish turn on the bank’s interest rate projections and on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. Such an outcome would add bearish pressure on the US Dollar.

On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed that progress has been made to solve the TikTok issue and showed his willingness to maintain “a good relationship with our Chinese counterparts”. These comments have provided some support to the US Dollar. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

11:02 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD treads water above $42.00 near 14-year highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) maintains its position after registering more than 1.5% gains in the previous session, trading around $42.20 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

11:02 Italy Trade Balance EU rose from previous €-0.069B to €1.917B in July
Italy Trade Balance EU rose from previous €-0.069B to €1.917B in July

11:02 Italy Global Trade Balance above expectations (€5.5B) in July: Actual (€7.908B)
Italy Global Trade Balance above expectations (€5.5B) in July: Actual (€7.908B)

11:01 Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €7.908B (July) vs €5.391B
Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €7.908B (July) vs €5.391B

11:00 Turkey Budget Balance: 96.7B (August) vs -23.9B
Turkey Budget Balance: 96.7B (August) vs -23.9B

10:37 EUR/USD wavers within range after Fitch downgrade of French debt rating
The EUR/USD trades at 1.1740 at Monday's European session, following a pullback to 1.1720 at the European session opening.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro fluctuates following Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating on Friday.US Dollar volatility remains at relatively low levels ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday.The calendar is light on Monday, with only ECB's Schnabel and President Lagarde's public appearances on tap.The EUR/USD trades at 1.1740 at Monday's European session, following a pullback to 1.1720 at the European session opening. The common currency opened the week on a hesitant tone after Fitch's downgrade of France's sovereign debt, while the US Dollar's (USD) volatility remains subdued as the market braces for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting due on Wednesday.On Friday, the Fitch rating agency downgraded France's debt ranking to A+, its lowest level on record, citing its uncertain political situation – President Emmanuelle Macron named Sebastien Lecornu as the third Prime Minister of his term last week –, and a fiscal deficit that is only expected to continue growing.

The impact of Fitch's announcement on the Euro (EUR) has been limited, as the Fed's decision remains front and center in financial markets. Investors have already priced in a 25 basis points cut, but the interest rate projections and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference are likely to reveal changes in the forward guidance that might determine the US Dollar's near-term direction.The macroeconomic docket is light on Monday. ECB President Lagarde will take part in a panel at the Institute Montaigne in Paris, and during the European afternoon, Isabel Schnabel will speak at an economic meeting in Luxembourg. Their comments about France's situation and the bank's next monetary policy plans are likely to provide some guidance for the Euro.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% -0.06% -0.09% 0.00% -0.26% -0.14% 0.01% EUR -0.05% -0.08% -0.21% -0.05% -0.27% -0.23% -0.05% GBP 0.06% 0.08% -0.04% 0.04% -0.19% -0.14% -0.08% JPY 0.09% 0.21% 0.04% 0.07% -0.12% -0.06% 0.11% CAD -0.00% 0.05% -0.04% -0.07% -0.15% -0.19% -0.11% AUD 0.26% 0.27% 0.19% 0.12% 0.15% 0.04% 0.19% NZD 0.14% 0.23% 0.14% 0.06% 0.19% -0.04% 0.07% CHF -0.01% 0.05% 0.08% -0.11% 0.11% -0.19% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar flattens with markets awaiting the FedThe US Dollar is moving within a tight range on Monday, with trading volumes declining as investors are increasingly wary of placing large USD directional bets ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. In the absence of first-tier data, some ECB speakers might move the Euro, but the US Dollar is likely to remain at current levels, at least until Tuesday's US Retail Sales release.Data released on Friday by the University of Michigan revealed that U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated well beyond expectations, dropping to a four-month low in September. The survey signaled that higher product prices stemming from tariffs are weighing on consumption, which is likely to dampen economic growth. Last week, a rather moderate increase in US consumer prices and an unexpectedly soft US Producer Prices Index (PPI) report, all in all, contributed to setting the conditions for a Fed rate cut this week and probably to a more dovish monetary policy stance going forward.In Europe, France's 10-year bond yield has jumped 5 basis points to levels past 3.5%, and the yield of the 30-year bond increased nearly 10 basis points to 4.33%, following the downgrade of its sovereign debt rating. These levels are below the early September highs that triggered a significant Euro reversal, but still are likely to keep EUR bulls in check.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is wavering within a bullish channelEUR/USD bulls were capped at 1.1750, and the pair is pulling back on Monday. Downside attempts, however, are likely to remain limited with investors awaiting the Fed decision, which is likely to maintain the pair trading within current ranges during the first half of the week. Technical indicators are showing a fading bullish momentum. To the downside, Friday's low at the 1.1700 area and the bottom of the ascending channel, now at 1.1675, are likely to challenge bears in the coming sessions. Below here, the September 11 low near 1.1660 comes into view ahead of the 1.1610-1.1630 area that encloses the lows of September 2,3, and 4.

Upside attempts are expected to find resistance at 1.1750. Further up, the 1.1780-1.1790 area (September 8, July 24 highs) is likely to hold bulls ahead of the channel top, now at 1.1810. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

10:24 WTI Oil approaches $63.00 following attacks on Russian plants
Crude Oil is posting minor gains on Monday, with price action approaching levels close to $63.00 after bouncing from lows of $61.50 on Friday.

10:23 Forex Today: Big central bank week begins in a calm manner
Here is what you need to know on Monday, September 15:

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The European economic calendar will feature Trade Balance data for July and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Index data for September later in the day. US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.21% -0.56% -0.53% 0.00% -1.64% -1.11% -0.25% EUR 0.21% -0.36% -0.24% 0.20% -1.42% -0.86% -0.04% GBP 0.56% 0.36% 0.02% 0.56% -1.07% -0.51% 0.31% JPY 0.53% 0.24% -0.02% 0.46% -1.14% -0.73% 0.30% CAD -0.00% -0.20% -0.56% -0.46% -1.54% -1.06% -0.28% AUD 1.64% 1.42% 1.07% 1.14% 1.54% 0.57% 1.39% NZD 1.11% 0.86% 0.51% 0.73% 1.06% -0.57% 0.82% CHF 0.25% 0.04% -0.31% -0.30% 0.28% -1.39% -0.82% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Credit rating agency Fitch announced late Friday that it downgraded France's sovereign credit score to A+ from AA-, noting that it sees a high likelihood of the political deadlock continuing beyond the election. Fitch also said that it expects the upcoming budget negotiations to produce a more diluted fiscal consolidation package than that proposed by the outgoing administration. After ending the previous week marginally higher, EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1700 in the European session on Monday. During the American trading hours, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in the event titled "Conversations for tomorrow" on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.The data from China showed early Monday that Retail Sales rose by 3.4% on a yearly basis in August. This print followed the 3.7% increase reported in July and came in weaker than the market expectation of 3.8%. In the meantime, Industrial Production expanded by 5.2% in this period, missing analysts' estimate for a 5.8% growth. AUD/USD showed no reaction to these data and was last seen posting small daily gains above 0.6650.The US Dollar (USD) Index ended the previous week virtually unchanged. In the European morning on Monday, the index fluctuates in a narrow channel slightly above 97.50. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the dot-plot.GBP/USD holds its ground and trades comfortably above 1.3550 to start the week. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the July employment report and August inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, before the Bank of England (BoE) releases the interest rate decision on Thursday.USD/CAD extends its sideways grind above 1.3800 after failing to make a decisive move in either direction last week. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Bank of Canada policy meeting will be watched closely by market participants later in the week.USD/JPY trades in a narrow band at around 147.50 in the European morning on Monday. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions will be announced during the Asian trading hours on Friday.After setting a new record high in the first half of the previous week, Gold entered a consolidation phase and moved up and down in a tight channel heading into the weekend. XAU/USD remains calm on Monday and holds steady below $3,650. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:16 ECB’s Kocher: Stronger Euro could become a problem for exporters
In an interview published in the Austrian newspaper, Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten, on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that "at the moment, I would not yet describe the exchange rate as a risk" when asked about the Euro-US Dollar rate.

In an interview published in the Austrian newspaper, Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten, on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that "at the moment, I would not yet describe the exchange rate as a risk" when asked about the Euro-US Dollar rate.There had recently been a "constant" appreciation of the Euro and "if the current trend continues, it could become problematic for export-oriented industry at some point,” Kocher noted further.

10:07 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Made good progress on technical details with China
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, the US has “made good progress on technical details with China.”

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, the US has “made good progress on technical details with China.”Additional quotesTrump has great respect for Xi.

Chinese counterparts have an ‘aggressive ask'.Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noted, “we are close to resolving the TikTok issue with China.”“We want to maintain a good relationship with our Chinese counterparts,” Greer added.

09:50 EUR/GBP falls below 0.8650 on fears over France’s political crisis
The EUR/GBP cross attracts some sellers to near 0.8645 during the early European session on Monday. The fears of political turmoil in France drag the Euro (EUR) lower against the Pound Sterling (GBP). Traders will keep an eye on the UK employment report, which is due later on Tuesday.

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Political uncertainty in France could undermine the Euro. Economists widely anticipate the BoE to hold the key rate at 4.0% on Thursday. The EUR/GBP cross attracts some sellers to near 0.8645 during the early European session on Monday. The fears of political turmoil in France drag the Euro (EUR) lower against the Pound Sterling (GBP). Traders will keep an eye on the UK employment report, which is due later on Tuesday. On Thursday, the attention will shift to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision.The shared currency weakens as the Fitch agency, one of the top global institutions gauging the financial solidity of sovereign borrowers, downgraded France’s credit rating on Friday from “AA-” to “A+.” This registered the country’s lowest level on record at a major credit rating agency. The move came days after François Bayrou resigned as Prime Minister after losing a parliamentary confidence vote over an attempt to get an austerity budget adopted. On the GBP’s front, the downbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for July might weigh on the GBP and help limit the downside for the cross. The UK economy showed zero growth in July 2025 and a slight slowdown over the three months to July. The Bank of England (BoE) will keep its key policy rate on hold at its September meeting on Thursday. According to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, all 67 economists in the September 8-11 poll expected the UK central bank to keep the bank rate on hold at 4.00%, while a strong majority pencilled in a quarter-point cut next quarter. Three economists forecast 50 basis points (bps) of reduction in the fourth quarter (Q4). Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:31 India WPI Inflation registered at 0.52% above expectations (0.3%) in August
India WPI Inflation registered at 0.52% above expectations (0.3%) in August

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in August
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in August

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -0.9% to -1.8% in August
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -0.9% to -1.8% in August

09:03 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.86 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.37.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $66.63.

08:52 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above mid-0.5900s despite disappointing Chinese data
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and stalls Friday's modest pullback from the 0.5980 region, or a nearly one-month high.

08:40 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Positive view remains in place, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls
The AUD/JPY cross edges higher to near 98.20 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation.

08:40 EUR/JPY breaks below 173.00 as Fitch Ratings downgrades France’s credit rating
EUR/JPY loses ground after two sessions of gains, trading around 173.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.

08:29 FX option expiries for Sept 15 NY cut
FX option expiries for Sept 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Sept 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1650 1b1.1690 2b1.1750 712m1.1860 1.8bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 147.70 650m150.00 1.6bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3500 1.3b1.3650 601mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6500 711mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3500 3.1b

08:28 USD/CHF trades flat around 0.7960, investors await Fed’s monetary policy outcome
The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7960 during the late Asian trading session on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair flattens as the US Dollar (US) is expected to remain on the sidelines ahead of the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

07:56 GBP/JPY flat lines around 200.00, below multi-year top ahead of key central bank decisions
The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on last Friday's closing above the 200.00 psychological mark for the first time since August 2008 and edges lower at the start of a new week. The downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction ahead of this week's key central bank event risks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY kicks off the new week on a softer note and eases from its highest level since July 2028.The divergent BoE-BoJ policy expectations turn out to be a key factor capping gains for the cross.The downside seems limited as traders keenly await the BoE and BoJ policy meetings this week.The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on last Friday's closing above the 200.00 psychological mark for the first time since August 2008 and edges lower at the start of a new week. The downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction ahead of this week's key central bank event risks.The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday and is widely anticipated to leave the key benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4%. Moreover, the central bank is seen maintaining a cautious wait-and-see approach for the rest of 2025 amid the recent rises in inflation expectations. This continues to underpin the British Pound (GBP) and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid expectations that domestic political turmoil could give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) more reasons to delay raising interest rates. This might contribute to limiting any meaningful corrective slide for the GBP/JPY cross. That said, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path.The recent US-Japan trade agreement has eliminated a key source of uncertainty. Moreover, an upward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP growth figures, along with a tight labor market and a rise in real wages for the first time in seven months, backs the case for another rate hike by the BoJ this year. This marks a divergence in comparison to relatively dovish BoE expectations and could cap the GBP/JPY cross.Hence, the market focus will also be on the outcome of a two-day BoJ policy meeting on Friday. In the meantime, the UK monthly employment details on Tuesday, along with the latest UK consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, might influence the GBP and provide some impetus to the GBP/JPY cross. The market reaction, however, is likely to be muted heading into the key central bank event risks. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:54 USD/INR trades in caution at the start of Fed’s decision week
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a cautious note around 88.40 against the US Dollar (USD), still it is close to its all-time high around 88.60 posted last week.

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The USD/INR pair is expected to trade on the sidelines, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outcome on Wednesday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get cues about the monetary policy action in the remainder of the year.Analysts at Morgan Stanley have forecasted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps in all three remaining monetary policy announcements this year, citing downside labor market risks, with threats of high inflation remaining in place.Latest labor market-related economic indicators have shown signs of a slowing job market in the wake of tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 5 showed that individuals claiming jobless benefits came in at the highest in four years at 263K.Daily digest market movers: Investors await India’s WPI inflation data for AugustThe resumption of a monetary-easing campaign by the Fed and a dovish interest rate outlook will be a favorable scenario for the Indian Rupee. However, its upside is expected to remain limited due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and India.US President Trump has urged the European Union (EU) to exert pressure on India and China to stop them from buying Oil from Russia. Trump has been blaming Asian giants, especially India, for the money that they are paying to Moscow for Oil is being utilized to keep the war going in Ukraine.In response to India buying Russian Oil, US President Trump has already increased tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 50%, which has dampened the competitiveness of Indian products in global markets.US-India trade tensions have remained a major drag on the sentiment of overseas investors towards India. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have pared a significant stake of 1,03,813.87 crores in the cash segment of the Indian stock market. However, some signs of slowdown have been observed in the pace of FIIs selling as a significant amount of sell-off was seen in July and August.On the domestic front, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August has shown that price pressures are increasing at a faster pace. India’s retail inflation rose at an annual pace of 2.07%, almost in line with estimates of 2.1%, and faster than the prior reading of 1.67%. Still, the inflation growth remains below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 3.7% for the current financial year.In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation data for August, which will be published at 06:30 GMT. Inflation at the producer level is expected to have grown at an annual pace of 0.3%. In July, the producer inflation data was deflated by 0.58%.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key 20-day EMAUSD/INR opens on a flat note around 88.40 on Monday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near 88.00.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, suggesting that a fresh bullish momentum is intact.Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of 89.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:48 EUR/USD weakens below 1.1750 amid fears of political crisis in France
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as ratings agency Fitch downgraded France's credit rating amid political turmoil.

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The Fitch agency downgraded France’s credit rating on Friday. The US central bank is anticipated to cut rates for the first time since December. The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as ratings agency Fitch downgraded France's credit rating amid political turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde speech and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. The Fitch agency, one of the top global institutions gauging the financial solidity of sovereign borrowers, downgraded France’s credit rating on Friday from “AA-” to “A+.” This registered the country’s lowest level on record at a major credit rating agency.The move came days after François Bayrou resigned as Prime Minister after losing a parliamentary confidence vote over an attempt to get an austerity budget adopted. Fears of political turmoil in France could undermine the shared currency in the near term. The downside for the major pair might be limited as a weakening US labor market reinforced expectations that the US central bank will deliver its first rate cut of the year on Wednesday. Pricing of Fed fund futures indicates that the market believes the Fed is certain to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on September 17, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The University of Michigan (UoM) said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4 in its preliminary estimate, from 58.2 in August. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 58.0 and marked a second straight month in September, weighing on the Greenback. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:36 Gold bulls not ready to give up yet amid Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical risks
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it manages to reverse an Asian session dip to the $3,627-3,626 area and currently trades near the top end of a one-week-old trading range.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold attracts dip-buyers during the Asian session amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.Rising Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed and continue to benefit the precious metal.Geopolitical risks further benefit the safe-haven commodity ahead of key central bank events.Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it manages to reverse an Asian session dip to the $3,627-3,626 area and currently trades near the top end of a one-week-old trading range. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risks before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. The focus will be on the crucial FOMC rate decision, which will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.In the meantime, rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US central bank keep the USD depressed near its lowest level since July 24 and continue to act as a tailwind for the Gold price. Apart from this, rising geopolitical risks further support the safe-haven precious metal. However, a generally positive risk tone keeps the XAU/USD pair below the record high, around the $3,675 region, touched last week. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bulls and suggests that any corrective slide might continue to attract dip-buyers.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to draw support from dovish Fed expectationsTraders ramped up their bets for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year after the recent US macro data pointed to a softening labor market. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders see a 100% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs for the first time in nine months at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday.Moreover, the Fed is expected to deliver two more rate cuts, in October and in December, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and the US Dollar close to its lowest level since July 24. This, in turn, assists the non-yielding Gold to attract some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and reverse a modest Asian session dip to the $3,627-3,626 region.Ukraine launched a large attack on Russian energy facilities on Sunday amid intensifying drone strikes from both sides. The US has stepped up pressure on NATO countries to tighten energy sanctions on Russia and impose tariffs on countries buying Russian oil in a bid to curtail its revenues and end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.Meanwhile, an Iranian lawmaker, Mojtaba Zarei, has called on Qatar to expel US forces and host Iranian Revolutionary Guard hypersonic missiles to counter Israeli threats. This keeps geopolitical risks in play ahead of an Arab-Islamic leaders' summit in Doha and turns out to be another factor that continues to offer some support to the safe-haven precious metal.The XAU/USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and might opt to wait for this week's key central bank event risks. The Bank of Canada and the US Fed will announce their rate decisions on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England policy update on Thursday and the outcome of a two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday.Meanwhile, investors will look for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD demand in the near-term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity. Hence, the focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference and updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot.Gold needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid still overbought RSI on the daily chartFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory and backs the case for an extension of the range-bound price action before the next leg up. That said, momentum beyond the $3,657-3,658 immediate hurdle should allow the Gold price to retest the all-time peak, around the $3,675 zone touched last Tuesday and climb further towards conquering the $3,700 round-figure mark.On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the $3,627-3,626 zone, could offer immediate support ahead of the $3,610-3,600 region. Some follow-through selling below last week's swing low, around the $3,580 region, could make the Gold price vulnerable to extend the corrective slide towards the $3,565-3,560 intermediate support en route to the $3,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 10,341.81 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 10,336.80 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 120,624.00 per tola from INR 120,566.40 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 10,341.81 10 Grams 103,416.80 Tola 120,624.00 Troy Ounce 321,667.00 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:31 US Dollar Index steadies near 97.50, potential downside appears on Fed rate cut bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady and trading around 97.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.

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The Greenback may come under pressure as a softening labor market raises the chances of the Federal Reserve delivering its first rate cut of the year on Thursday.Traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with a slim possibility of a 50-basis-point move. Markets have also priced in continued easing through 2026 to guard against a potential recession.Expectations for multiple Fed cuts strengthened after US weekly initial jobless claims rose to their highest level since October 2021, following a weak nonfarm payrolls report, which overshadowed a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading.Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December.Traders are also keeping their eyes on whether President Donald Trump's economic adviser Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor before the policy meeting. According to Reuters, citing the Senate schedule set by Republican leaders, the full Senate vote on his confirmation is scheduled for Monday evening. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

06:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD extends the rally above $42.00 amid Fed rate cut expectations
The Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day near $42.25 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Expectations of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price.

06:55 USD/CAD remains below 1.3850 due to rising odds of multiple Fed rate cuts
USD/CAD inches lower after registering small gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3840 during the Asian hours on Monday.

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The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) struggles, as a weakening US labor market boosts the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering its first rate cut of the year on Thursday.Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, though there remains a slight chance of a 50-basis-point cut. Markets have also factored in continued easing through 2026 to help stave off a potential recession.Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the US central bank to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December, per Reuters.Traders are also keeping their eyes on whether Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor before the policy meeting. According to Reuters, citing the Senate schedule set by Republican leaders, the full Senate vote on his confirmation is scheduled for Monday evening.Focus is on Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release due on Tuesday, ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy decision on Wednesday. Expectations for BoC easing have increased after data showed a loss of roughly 65,500 jobs in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.1%. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:52 AUD/JPY maintains position above 98.00 after disappointing Chinese data
AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 98.20 during the Asian hours on Monday.

05:46 Japanese Yen remains trapped in range against USD ahead of FOMC and BoJ policy meetings
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so against its American counterpart amid mixed fundamental cues.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen remains confined in an over one-month-old trading range.The BoJ rate hike ambiguity and a positive risk tone cap the safe-haven JPY.Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed and act as a headwind for USD/JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so against its American counterpart amid mixed fundamental cues. The uncertainty over the likely timing and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to act as a headwind for the JPY. Moreover, the underlying bullish sentiment turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY's safe-haven status.Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path mark a significant divergence in comparison to rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latter keeps the US Dollar (USD) close to its lowest level since July 24, touched last Friday, and benefits the lower-yielding JPY. Furthermore, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the FOMC and the BoJ policy meetings this week.Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant ahead of this week’s key central bank event risksJapanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to resign earlier this month adds a layer of uncertainty over the future political landscape and government policies. This could give the Bank of Japan more reasons to delay its next interest rate hike, which keeps the Japanese Yen bulls on the back foot.Meanwhile, the recent US-Japan trade agreement has eliminated a key source of uncertainty. Moreover, an upward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP growth figures, along with a tight labor market and a rise in real wages for the first time in seven months, backs the case for another rate hike by the BoJ this year.The US called for further sanctions on Russia and possible tariffs on countries that they consider enabling its war in Ukraine in a call with the Group of Seven allies on Friday. This comes after Russian drones were downed by a NATO member, Poland, and Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russian oil facilities.Meanwhile, an Iranian lawmaker, Mojtaba Zarei, has called on Qatar to expel US forces and host Iranian Revolutionary Guard hypersonic missiles to counter Israeli threats. This keeps geopolitical risks in play ahead of an Arab-Islamic leaders summit in Doha and offers some support to the safe-haven JPY.The US Dollar, on the other hand, hangs near its lowest level since July 24 amid the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs this week. Moreover, the markets are pricing in a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which further lends support to the lower-yielding JPY.Traders, however, opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risks – the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision and a two-day BoJ meeting starting on Thursday. The latest monetary policy updates will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY technical setup favors bearish traders; sustained break and acceptance below 147.00 awaitedThe range-bound price action constitutes the formation of a rectangle and points to indecision over the USD/JPY pair's near-term trajectory. Furthermore, neutral oscillators warrant some caution before placing directional bets. Meanwhile, the recent repeated failures near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) back the case for an imminent break to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 147.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and expose the 146.30-146.20 horizontal support. This is closely followed by the 146.00 round figure, below which spot prices could accelerate the fall towards the 145.35 intermediate support en route to the 145.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, any intraday move up is likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 148.00 round figure, above which a fresh bout of short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier, currently pegged near the 148.75 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 149.00 mark and the monthly swing high, around the 149.15 region, would negate the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:10 China’s NBS: Economic operation generally steady in August, facing many uncertainties
Following the publication of the high-impact China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.

05:09 Australian Dollar holds gains following weaker-than-expected China’s economic data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, recovering its losses registered in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair holds ground following disappointing economic data from Australia’s close trading partner, China.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar receives support from waning odds of further RBA rate cuts.China’s Retail Sales climbed 3.4% YoY in August, against 3.8% expected and 3.7% in July.US labor market increases the chances of the Federal Reserve delivering its first rate cut of the year on Thursday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, recovering its losses registered in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair holds ground following disappointing economic data from Australia’s close trading partner, China.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August vs. 3.8% expected and 3.7% in July. Chinese Industrial Production increased 5.2% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.8% forecast and 5.7% seen previously.The AUD finds support on diminishing expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. Swaps now price in an 86% likelihood of unchanged policy in September, bolstered by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter July inflation.Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations also climbed in September, signaling stronger domestic demand and raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that the private sector is showing “a little bit more growth,” which she described as a positive sign for the economy.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and their Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, discussed trade and the economy during high-level talks in Madrid. Traders will be watching closely as the US-China talks move into their second day.Australian Dollar advances as market mood improves on Fed rate cut oddsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 97.60 at the time of writing. The US Dollar may struggle as a weakening US labor market boosts the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering its first rate cut of the year on Thursday.Traders are also monitoring whether Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor before the meeting. According to Reuters, citing the Senate schedule set by Republican leaders, the full Senate vote on his confirmation is scheduled for Monday evening.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, though there remains a slight chance of a 50-basis-point cut. Markets have also factored in continued easing through 2026 to help stave off a potential recession.Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the US central bank to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December, according to Reuters.Bets on multiple Fed rate cuts strengthened after US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims climbed to their highest since October 2021, following last week’s weak Nonfarm Payrolls report, overshadowing a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.9% year-over-year in August, as expected, but came in higher than 2.7% in July. On a monthly basis, the CPI inflation climbed to 0.4% from a 0.2% increase prior. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.1% on a yearly basis in August, matching the estimate.US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 263K, the highest since 2021, against the expected 235K and 236K prior (revised from 237K).The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision suggests total Nonfarm employment for March 2025 will likely be revised down by 911,000, or about 76,000 fewer jobs per month, signaling a weaker labor market than previously estimated. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release," the BLS noted in its press release.Australian Dollar targets 11-month highs near 0.6700AUD/USD is trading around 0.6660 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern, indicating the market bias is bullish. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating short-term price momentum is stronger.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may approach the 11-month high of 0.6687, recorded in November 2024, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6700.The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6607, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6570. A break below the channel would weaken the short-term price momentum and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6529.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Sep 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.4% Consensus: 3.8% Previous: 3.7% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

05:01 South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.51B in August
South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.51B in August

05:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.8%) in August
China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.8%) in August

05:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3.4%, below expectations (3.8%) in August
China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3.4%, below expectations (3.8%) in August

05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (1.4%) in August
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (1.4%) in August

04:47 New round of US-China talks head into second day focused on trade, TikTok
The United States (US) and Chinese representatives discussed TikTok, trade and the economy during a day of high-level talks in Madrid, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

04:30 China House Price Index up to -2.5% in August from previous -2.8%
China House Price Index up to -2.5% in August from previous -2.8%

04:28 GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.3550 as potential Fed rate cut looms
The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3555 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver its first rate cut of the year at its policy meeting on Wednesday, which might weigh on the US Dollar (USD).

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Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver its first rate cut of the year at its policy meeting on Wednesday, which might weigh on the US Dollar (USD). Later on Monday, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for September will be released. Bets are strongly in favor of a Fed rate reduction at the September meeting on Wednesday, fueled by recent evidence of a weakening labor market. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a near 100% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting. A small minority even sees a possibility of a jumbo rate cut. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have made it clear that future policy decisions will be data-dependent. The attention will shift to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which might give insight into economic forecasts and their views on the appropriate Federal Funds Rate path ahead. Any dovish remarks from the Fed could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the major pair. On the other hand, the downbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for July might exert some selling pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Concerns over UK economic growth are likely to prompt traders to raise bets supporting more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in the remainder of the year. Markets have priced in around a 33% odds that the UK central bank will reduce borrowing rates one more time this year, according to Reuters. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:19 WTI edges higher to $62.65-$62.70 amid geopolitical tensions, oversupply fears cap gains
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge higher during the Asian session on Monday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI edges higher at the start of a new week, though it remains confined in a one-week-old range.Rising geopolitical tensions lend support to the commodity, though demand concerns cap gains.Oversupply worries could further act as a headwind for Oil prices amid a bearish technical setup.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge higher during the Asian session on Monday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. The commodity remains confined in an over one-week-old range, just above a three-month low touched last week, and currently trades around the $62.65-$62.70 region, up 0.50% for the day.Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers discussed in a call on Friday about imposing further sanctions on Russia and possible tariffs on countries that they consider enabling its war in Ukraine. This comes on the back of Ukraine's recent drone attack that suspended loadings from the largest port in western Russia. Adding to this, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions and supports Crude Oil prices.Meanwhile, an unexpected rise in US crude inventories pointed to softening demand in the world's largest Oil consumer. Apart from this, the OPEC+ decision to increase production from October continues to fuel concerns about oversupply, which is holding back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on crude oil prices. Investors also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the FOMC decision on Wednesday before positioning for a firm near-term direction.Looking at the technical picture, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This further backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellers at higher levels and warrants some caution before confirming that Crude Oil prices have formed a near-term bottom. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1056 vs. 7.1019 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1056 compared to Friday's fix of 7.1019 and 7.1213 Reuters estimate.

03:57 NZD/USD remains subdued near 0.5950 following Business NZ PSI, Chinese data eyed
NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5950 during the Asian hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD holds losses as the Business NZ PSI fell to 47.5 in August from 48.9 in July.China’s Retail Sales are expected to climb by 3.8% YoY, while Industrial Production may increase by 5.8% YoY in August.Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now forecast that the US Fed will implement three rate cuts this year.NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5950 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds losses as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles following the Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI), which fell to 47.5 in August from 48.9 in July, remaining well below the long-term average of 52.9 and marking its 18th consecutive month of contraction.Traders adopt caution ahead of Retail Sales and Industrial Production from New Zealand's top trading partner, China, due later in the day. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August, compared to 3.7% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.8% YoY in the same period versus 5.7% prior.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and their Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, discussed trade and the economy during high-level talks in Madrid. Traders will be watching closely as the US-China talks move into their second day.However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) may face challenges as a weakening US labor market boosts the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering its first rate cut of the year on Thursday. The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, though there remains a slight chance of a 50-basis-point cut. Markets have also factored in continued easing through 2026 to help stave off a potential recession.Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the US central bank to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December, according to Reuters. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

03:40 EUR/USD trades sideways, holds above 1.1700 as focus remains on Fed decision this week
The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band, around the 1.1725-1.1720 region during the Asian session.

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The downside, however, seems limited amid the divergent European Central Bank (ECB)-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations and ahead of this week's key central bank event risk.As was widely anticipated, the ECB left interest rates unchanged last Thursday and maintained an upbeat view on growth and inflation. Moreover, the central bank added that it would follow a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach and was not pre-committing to a specific path for interest rates. This, in turn, dampened expectations for any further cut in borrowing costs, which continues to underpin the shared currency and offer support to the EUR/USD pair.In fact, traders have now reduced the odds of another ECB rate cut before spring to just 40%. This gives the euro a policy advantage against the Fed, which is universally expected to cut rates as early as this week. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an over 90% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut and a small possibility of a jumbo rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and also acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.Bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday before placing fresh bets. Traders will look for cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:39 USD/JPY flat lines near 147.50 as Fed rate cut bets grow
The USD/JPY pair holds steady near 147.60 during the early Asian session on Monday. The expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver its first rate cut of the year this week could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

03:17 US President Donald Trump says ready to impose sanctions on Russia if NATO nations do the same
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he is ready to impose major Sanctions on Russia once all NATO countries have started “to do the same thing” and pause their purchases of oil from Russia, CNBC reported.

03:00 When is the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production and how it could affect AUD/USD?
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for August at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August, compared to 3.7% in the previous reading.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} China Retail Sales, Industrial Production OverviewThe National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for August at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August, compared to 3.7% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.8% YoY in the same period versus 5.7% prior.Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Meanwhile, Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. How could the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production affect AUD/USD?AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production data. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar strengthens on a rise in US Initial Jobless Claims and a modest inflation uptick.If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the September 12 high of 0.6669. The next resistance level emerges at the November 7, 2024 high of 0.6688, en route to the October 21, 2024 high of 0.6724. To the downside, the September 9 low of 0.6582 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to September 5 low of 0.6511. The next contention level is located at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6490. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Mon Sep 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3.8% Previous: 3.7% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:08 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher to near $3,650 as Fed is expected to cut rates
The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $3,640 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal gains traction as a weakening US labor market reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver its first rate cut of the year this week.

02:07 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in September
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in September

02:06 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.3% to 0.4% in September
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.3% to 0.4% in September

01:32 New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 48.9 to 47.5 in August
New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 48.9 to 47.5 in August

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21:40 Silver Price Forecast: Bulls extend control as Silver trades at multi-year highs Silver (XAG/USD) continues its rally on Monday, building on last week’s strong momentum to notch a fourth consecutive daily gain.

19:03 Breaking: Gold hits $3,680, eyes $3,700 as Fed decision looms Gold Price rallies past the previous record high of $3,674, hits $3,681 poised to challenge the $3,700 in the near term, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

18:33 United States FX Today: US Dollar holds steady ahead of Retail Sales data The US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on Monday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) shedding 0.2% on the day, as markets await the closely watched August Retail Sales figures, due on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.

18:18 GBP/USD climbs as Fed-BoE policy divergence favors Sterling The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session as traders are set to digest monetary policy meetings by major central banks across the Atlantic.

17:58 Canada FX Today: The Canadian Dollar awaits decisive CPI data The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moving cautiously at the start of the week against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/CAD Forex pair hovering around 1.3835, down very slightly over the session.

17:17 EUR/CHF steadies as Euro gains from ECB hawkish tone, Swiss disinflation deepens EUR/CHF kicks off the week on a positive note, attracting fresh buying interest after briefly falling to its lowest level since August 1 late last week.

16:05 GBP/JPY climbs past 200.00, BoE and BoJ monetary policy meetings in focus The British Pound (GBP) is extending its winning streak against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, with the cross trading near its strongest level in more than a year.

15:47 USD/CNH steady near 7.1200 lows – BBH USD/CNH is consolidating near cyclical lows as China’s August activity data disappointed, with retail sales, industrial production, and investment all losing momentum.

15:37 EUR/USD steady above 1.1700 despite France downgrade – BBH EUR/USD is range-bound above 1.1700, BBH FX analysts report.

15:31 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index below expectations (5) in September: Actual (-8.7) United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index below expectations (5) in September: Actual (-8.7)

15:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2% below forecasts (1.3%) in July Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2% below forecasts (1.3%) in July

15:23 GBP/USD: Above 1.3595, a move toward 1.3635 can be expected – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade sideways. Slight increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

15:18 EUR extending post-ECB gains – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is a mid-performer among the G10, building on last week’s gains (against US Dollar (USD)) catalyzed by the decidedly neutral ECB meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

15:03 Gold consolidates below record highs as Fed rate cut looms Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a cautious footing, extending late last week’s sideways momentum after peaking at an all-time high near $3,675 on Tuesday.

14:45 USD trading defensively as markets eye Wednesday’s Fed – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is entering the week with a defensive posture and trading with broad weakness against all of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

14:44 ECB’s Schnabel: Interest rates are in good place European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are in a good place and added that upside risks to inflation continue to dominate.

14:42 USD: Is fiscal dominance coming? – Commerzbank After a nine-month pause, the US Federal Reserve is expected to resume its cycle of interest rate cuts this week. The big question is how far will it go?

14:06 USD: Gearing up for Wednesday's FOMC meeting – ING A public holiday in Japan has seen a quiet start to the week in global FX markets. In terms of overnight news, there were note some soft China activity data that calls out for some more stimulus.

14:00 India Trade Deficit Government declined to $26.49B in August from previous $27.35B India Trade Deficit Government declined to $26.49B in August from previous $27.35B

13:48 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates gains above $3,615 Gold failed to find acceptance above the $3,660 area and is trading lower on Thursday, returning to $3,620, as the US Dollar appreciates for the third consecutive day, with all eyes on the US Consumer Prices Index release.

13:46 GBP: A much busier week for sterling – ING Pound Sterling (GBP) faces a much busier week. The highlight is Thursday's MPC meeting. But before then, we have the jobs/earnings figures tomorrow and then the August CPI release on Wednesday, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

13:02 China’s steel output falls – ING The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning show that China’s primary aluminium production fell marginally by 0.5% YoY to 3.8mt in August, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:56 RUB: CBR cut rate by less but will probably continue to cut – Commerzbank The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a smaller interest rate cut on Friday than the median consensus estimate of 200bp (it cut by 100bp from 18% to 17%).

12:43 Robust oil demand from China – ING The oil market rose for a second straight session in the early trading session today, following claims by Ukraine that recent drone attacks affected Russia’s two key oil hubs in the Baltic Sea.

12:33 China: Weaker August may prompt more policy support – Standard Chartered Growth momentum further slowed in August despite resilient trade performance. FAI disappointed the most, while IP remained relatively stable and retail sales appeared to stabilise.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:18 ECB’s Kazimir: We must not change policy due to small deviations from inflation target European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that “we must not change policy due to small deviations from inflation target.“

12:01 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. up to €5.3B in July from previous €2.8B Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. up to €5.3B in July from previous €2.8B

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €12.4B, above expectations (€11.7B) in July Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €12.4B, above expectations (€11.7B) in July

11:44 USD/CAD pulls back, nearing 1.3830 with central banks on focus The US Dollar is trading moderately lower on Monday, but still trading within Friday’s range above 1,3830.

11:39 AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6670 as Fed dovish bets improve market mood The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6670 during the European trading session on Monday.

11:23 Pound Sterling gains ahead of Fed and BoE monetary policy decisions The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher at the start of the week against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session.

11:02 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD treads water above $42.00 near 14-year highs Silver price (XAG/USD) maintains its position after registering more than 1.5% gains in the previous session, trading around $42.20 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

11:02 Italy Trade Balance EU rose from previous €-0.069B to €1.917B in July Italy Trade Balance EU rose from previous €-0.069B to €1.917B in July

11:02 Italy Global Trade Balance above expectations (€5.5B) in July: Actual (€7.908B) Italy Global Trade Balance above expectations (€5.5B) in July: Actual (€7.908B)

11:01 Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €7.908B (July) vs €5.391B Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €7.908B (July) vs €5.391B

11:00 Turkey Budget Balance: 96.7B (August) vs -23.9B Turkey Budget Balance: 96.7B (August) vs -23.9B

10:37 EUR/USD wavers within range after Fitch downgrade of French debt rating The EUR/USD trades at 1.1740 at Monday's European session, following a pullback to 1.1720 at the European session opening.

10:24 WTI Oil approaches $63.00 following attacks on Russian plants Crude Oil is posting minor gains on Monday, with price action approaching levels close to $63.00 after bouncing from lows of $61.50 on Friday.

10:23 Forex Today: Big central bank week begins in a calm manner Here is what you need to know on Monday, September 15:

10:07 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Made good progress on technical details with China US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, the US has “made good progress on technical details with China.”

09:31 India WPI Inflation registered at 0.52% above expectations (0.3%) in August India WPI Inflation registered at 0.52% above expectations (0.3%) in August

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in August Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in August

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -0.9% to -1.8% in August Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -0.9% to -1.8% in August

08:52 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above mid-0.5900s despite disappointing Chinese data The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and stalls Friday's modest pullback from the 0.5980 region, or a nearly one-month high.

08:40 EUR/JPY breaks below 173.00 as Fitch Ratings downgrades France’s credit rating EUR/JPY loses ground after two sessions of gains, trading around 173.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.

08:29 FX option expiries for Sept 15 NY cut FX option expiries for Sept 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:54 USD/INR trades in caution at the start of Fed’s decision week The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a cautious note around 88.40 against the US Dollar (USD), still it is close to its all-time high around 88.60 posted last week.

07:36 Gold bulls not ready to give up yet amid Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical risks Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it manages to reverse an Asian session dip to the $3,627-3,626 area and currently trades near the top end of a one-week-old trading range.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:31 US Dollar Index steadies near 97.50, potential downside appears on Fed rate cut bets The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady and trading around 97.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:55 USD/CAD remains below 1.3850 due to rising odds of multiple Fed rate cuts USD/CAD inches lower after registering small gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3840 during the Asian hours on Monday.

05:52 AUD/JPY maintains position above 98.00 after disappointing Chinese data AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 98.20 during the Asian hours on Monday.

05:46 Japanese Yen remains trapped in range against USD ahead of FOMC and BoJ policy meetings The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so against its American counterpart amid mixed fundamental cues.

05:01 South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.51B in August South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.51B in August

05:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.8%) in August China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.8%) in August

05:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3.4%, below expectations (3.8%) in August China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3.4%, below expectations (3.8%) in August

05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (1.4%) in August China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (1.4%) in August

04:47 New round of US-China talks head into second day focused on trade, TikTok The United States (US) and Chinese representatives discussed TikTok, trade and the economy during a day of high-level talks in Madrid, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

04:30 China House Price Index up to -2.5% in August from previous -2.8% China House Price Index up to -2.5% in August from previous -2.8%

04:19 WTI edges higher to $62.65-$62.70 amid geopolitical tensions, oversupply fears cap gains West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge higher during the Asian session on Monday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1056 vs. 7.1019 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1056 compared to Friday's fix of 7.1019 and 7.1213 Reuters estimate.

03:57 NZD/USD remains subdued near 0.5950 following Business NZ PSI, Chinese data eyed NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5950 during the Asian hours on Monday.

03:40 EUR/USD trades sideways, holds above 1.1700 as focus remains on Fed decision this week The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band, around the 1.1725-1.1720 region during the Asian session.

02:07 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in September United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in September

02:06 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.3% to 0.4% in September United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.3% to 0.4% in September

01:32 New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 48.9 to 47.5 in August New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 48.9 to 47.5 in August

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