외환거래 뉴스 타임라인

금요일, 7월 4, 2025

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly stable against its peers on Friday, following commitment from the United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to remain in her role till the next elections.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling regains composure as UK Chancellor Reeves rules out speculation that she is stepping down.UK’s new welfare bill is expected to lead to an increase in taxes or spending cuts.The US Dollar underperforms as Trump’s tariff deadline expires on July 9.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly stable against its peers on Friday, following commitment from the United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to remain in her role till the next elections. The British currency has underperformed its peers this week on speculation of Reeves' stepping down for failing to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rules.On Thursday, Reeves confirmed while speaking to reporters that she will remain in office despite fiscal headwinds, and expressed confidence that she will improve fiscal conditions in her term. The same day, a spokesperson also confirmed on behalf of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer that “She [Reeves] is going nowhere”.The speculation over Reeves’ role as Chancellor stemmed after she was seen in tears at the House of Commons earlier this week for taking a U-turn on her fiscal rules and PM Starmer refraining from answering Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s question whether she will continue in her role. This led to a sharp increase in UK gilt yields, which weighed heavily on the Pound Sterling.Chancellor Reeves broke her own fiscal rules after raising the standard allowance for Universal Credit (UC) in the new welfare bill. To offset the cost of the same, she would need to cut spending or raise taxes. “Of course, there is a cost to the welfare changes that Parliament voted through this week and that will be reflected in the Budget," Reeves said, BBC reported.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling edges higher against US Dollar as tariff deadline loomsThe Pound Sterling ticks up to near 1.3680 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, in a holiday mood due to Independence Day in the United States (US). The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar underperforms its peers, with the July 9 tariff deadline looming large. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slides below 97.00 at the time of writing in the European session.The US Dollar underperforms as US President Donald Trump stated that he will send letters to those nations with whom a trade agreement has not been finalized, outlining tariff rates. So far, Washington has announced trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, and a framework with China. Trump has also expressed confidence that he will strike a deal with India before the tariff deadline.The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US on its major trading partners, such as the Eurozone, Japan, Canada and Mexico, will dampen global trade stability.Meanwhile, the clearance for imposing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” after it was narrowly approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives has increased US fiscal risks. Market experts believe that his signature bill will increase the national debt by $3–3.4 trillion over the next decade. Such scenario will increase interest obligations for the administration and will be inflationary for the economy.Another reason behind US Dollar weakness is slowing private sector hiring. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed on Thursday that strong public sector hiring contributed significantly to robust employment data. Overall, workers added in June were 147K, of which 74K were private employees and others from the government.Private sector hiring was almost half of 137K recorded in May and way below if compared to the three-month average of 115K, pointing to hesitancy amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy.Soft hiring by private employers will likely force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to consider interest rate cuts sooner.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds key 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling trades slightly higher, near 1.3675 against the US Dollar on Friday. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) close to 1.3600 continues to act as a major support zone for the GBP/USD pair.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the bullish bias is still intact.Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3500 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the three-and-a-half-year high around 1.3800 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades cautiously near $66.00 during the European trading session on Friday.

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The Oil price struggles to hold its recent recovery from the weekly low of $64.00 as investors turn cautious regarding the energy demand post the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump, following the deadline on July 9.US President Trump said late last week that he will not extend the tariff deadline for those countries that fail to strike a deal with Washington during the 90-day pause. I don’t think I’ll need to,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business.Meanwhile, Donald Trump has also stated that he will send letters to those nations whose government has not struck a deal with Washington yet, outlining additional tariff rates, by Friday.So far, Washington has announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom (UK) and Vietnam and a framework with China, and has expressed confidence that it will strike a deal with India before the tariff deadline.The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US on its major trading partners, such as the Eurozone, Japan, Canada, and Mexico, will dampen global trade stability. A scenario that will diminish the global oil demand.Meanwhile, a decline in traders’ bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the policy meeting later this month, after the release of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June has also capped the Oil price’s upside.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July has decreased to 4.7% from 23.8% seen a day prior to the US NFP data release.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
  

The NZD/USD pair builds on the overnight bounce from the 0.6030 region, or the weekly trough, and gains some follow-through positive traction on Friday.

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Spot prices climb to the 0.6080 area during the early European session and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.Traders dialled back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in July following the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Thursday. The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill would further worsen America’s long-term debt problems. This, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor undermining the Greenback's relative safe-haven status and benefiting the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair remains on track to register gains for the second straight week, though the uncertainty over Trump's trade policies could cap any further gains. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets amid relatively thin trading volumes on the back of a US holiday.The market focus now shifts to the release of Chinese inflation figures and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting next Wednesday, which will drive the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the USD bears and suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains to the upside. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 2.9% in June

Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) increased to 1.7% in May from previous 0.6%

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 4:

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May Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Eurozone will be the only data featured in the European economic calendar. Financial markets in the US will remain closed in observance of the July 4 holiday, paving the way for subdued action heading into the weekend. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.43% 0.25% -0.07% -0.92% -0.52% -0.36% -0.74% EUR 0.43% 0.65% 0.39% -0.50% -0.12% 0.08% -0.32% GBP -0.25% -0.65% -0.45% -1.14% -0.76% -0.59% -0.97% JPY 0.07% -0.39% 0.45% -0.86% -0.41% -0.25% -0.63% CAD 0.92% 0.50% 1.14% 0.86% 0.35% 0.56% 0.18% AUD 0.52% 0.12% 0.76% 0.41% -0.35% 0.18% -0.20% NZD 0.36% -0.08% 0.59% 0.25% -0.56% -0.18% -0.38% CHF 0.74% 0.32% 0.97% 0.63% -0.18% 0.20% 0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Thursday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 147,000 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 110,000. In this period, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. The USD gathered strength with the immediate reaction to the upbeat employment data and the USD Index climbed to a six-day-high above 97.40. Early Friday, the index corrects lower and stays in negative territory below 97.00.Late Thursday, the US House of Representative's approved US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill and sent it back to him to be signed into law. Meanwhile, Trump noted that he will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday. He added that the expects to sign a "couple more deals" and noted that countries will start paying tariffs from August 1st. Wall Street's main indexes registered strong gains on Thursday. During the Asian session on Friday, Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement that China and the US are stepping up efforts to implement the outcomes of the London framework. AUD/USD showed no reaction to this headline and was last seen trading flat on the day at around 0.6570.EUR/USD lost more than 0.3% on Thursday but managed to find a foothold early Friday. The pair was last seen trading modestly higher on the day at 1.1780. European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde reiterated early Friday that they will do whatever they must to reach the inflation target.Following Wednesday's sharp decline that was triggered by political jitters in the UK, GBP/USD ignored the broad-based USD strength and posted small gains on Thursday. Early Friday, the pair holds its ground and trades above 1.3650.USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and declines toward 144.00 after rising nearly 1% on Thursday. Gold snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, losing about 1% on the day. XAU/USD holds its ground early Friday and rebounds above $3,340. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

USD/CHF loses ground after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 0.7930 during the Asian hours on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF weakens as hotter-than-expected inflation data reduces the likelihood of further SNB rate cuts.The SNB is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0% through 2026.Trump’s “one big, beautiful” tax bill passed the House of Representatives.USD/CHF loses ground after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 0.7930 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from the decreasing expectations of further rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), driven by the latest hotter inflation data released on Thursday.Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up 0.1% year-on-year in June, rebounding from a previous fall of 0.1% and defying market expectations of a 0.1% drop. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI increased 0.2% following a 0.1% previous rise.SNB’s officials are expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0% in September. Many analysts anticipate rates will remain at zero through 2026. Moreover, Swiss policymakers have cautioned against dipping into negative territory, citing potential risks to savers, banks, and pension funds.The USD/CHF pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) struggles, while traders adopt caution due to ongoing uncertainty over the US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.According to Reuters, President Trump said on Thursday that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.” He stated that he planned to send letters to 10 countries at a time, outlining proposed tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%.President Trump’s “One big beautiful” tax legislation passed the House of Representatives, which includes significant tax cuts designed to stimulate economic growth. Trump lauded the bill's passage on Truth Social, calling it a “historic victory for American workers, families, and businesses.” Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.17% -0.16% -0.43% -0.11% 0.09% -0.07% -0.32% EUR 0.17% 0.05% -0.22% 0.10% 0.14% 0.09% -0.10% GBP 0.16% -0.05% -0.28% 0.05% 0.12% 0.05% -0.15% JPY 0.43% 0.22% 0.28% 0.33% 0.38% 0.28% 0.01% CAD 0.11% -0.10% -0.05% -0.33% 0.05% -0.00% -0.19% AUD -0.09% -0.14% -0.12% -0.38% -0.05% -0.10% -0.26% NZD 0.07% -0.09% -0.05% -0.28% 0.00% 0.10% -0.20% CHF 0.32% 0.10% 0.15% -0.01% 0.19% 0.26% 0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.3%) in May

Germany's Factory Orders dropped more-than-expected in May, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector recovery lost momentum, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Germany's Factory Orders dropped more-than-expected in May, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector recovery lost momentum, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Friday.Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ declined 1.4% in May after increasing by a revised 1.6% in April. Data missed the estimates of -0.1%.Germany’s Industrial Orders rose 5.3% year-over-year (YoY) in May, compared with the previous revised growth of 5.8%.FX implicationsThe Euro (EUR) is unfazed by the German data, with EUR/USD trading 0.15% higher on the day at 1.1775, as of writing. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.10% -0.40% -0.06% 0.17% 0.06% -0.29% EUR 0.14% 0.07% -0.24% 0.12% 0.20% 0.19% -0.11% GBP 0.10% -0.07% -0.32% 0.04% 0.15% 0.12% -0.18% JPY 0.40% 0.24% 0.32% 0.35% 0.44% 0.38% 0.00% CAD 0.06% -0.12% -0.04% -0.35% 0.08% 0.09% -0.22% AUD -0.17% -0.20% -0.15% -0.44% -0.08% -0.05% -0.33% NZD -0.06% -0.19% -0.12% -0.38% -0.09% 0.05% -0.30% CHF 0.29% 0.11% 0.18% -0.01% 0.22% 0.33% 0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its gains registered in the previous two sessions, trading lower around 96.90 during the Asian hours on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Dollar Index loses ground as traders adopt caution following Trump’s comments to write tariff letters to other countries.Trump’s “one big, beautiful” tax bill passed the House of Representatives, featuring tax cuts aimed at boosting economic growth.The solid US labor market data dampened the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its gains registered in the previous two sessions, trading lower around 96.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. The Greenback faces challenges as traders adopt caution amid prevailing uncertainty on US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.According to Reuters, President Trump told reporters on Thursday that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.” He stated that he planned to send letters to 10 countries at a time, outlining proposed tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%.“One big beautiful” tax bill passed the House of Representatives and was sent to Trump for signing into law. The legislation includes significant tax cuts designed to stimulate economic growth. Trump lauded the bill's passage on Truth Social, calling it a “historic victory for American workers, families, and businesses.”However, the US Dollar received support as stronger-than-expected jobs growth and a lower unemployment rate in the United States (US) weakened the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts.On Thursday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) indicated that the US labor force grew by 147,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 110,000 in June. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 233,000, down from 237,000, reflecting a resilient US labor market. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.09% -0.38% -0.06% 0.21% 0.09% -0.30% EUR 0.14% 0.08% -0.22% 0.12% 0.23% 0.22% -0.12% GBP 0.09% -0.08% -0.32% 0.03% 0.17% 0.14% -0.20% JPY 0.38% 0.22% 0.32% 0.35% 0.46% 0.40% -0.01% CAD 0.06% -0.12% -0.03% -0.35% 0.11% 0.10% -0.24% AUD -0.21% -0.23% -0.17% -0.46% -0.11% -0.06% -0.37% NZD -0.09% -0.22% -0.14% -0.40% -0.10% 0.06% -0.34% CHF 0.30% 0.12% 0.20% 0.01% 0.24% 0.37% 0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.15 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $66.35.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.32 after its previous daily close at $68.59.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.32 after its previous daily close at $68.59. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous 4.8% to 5.3% in May

Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (-1.4%)

The USD/CAD pair trades lower to near 1.3570 during the European session on Friday, aiming to revisit the eight-month low around 1.3540.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD faces selling pressure as the US Dollar underperforms in the aftermath of the US NFP data.Private sector hiring slowed significantly, while public sector hiring proved surprisingly robust.The imposition of higher tariffs by the US on Canada will dampen the outlook for the Canadian Dollar.The USD/CAD pair trades lower to near 1.3570 during the European session on Friday, aiming to revisit the eight-month low around 1.3540. The Loonie pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (US) gives back its entire gains in the aftermath of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, released on Thursday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides below 97.00.According to the NFP report, strong labor hiring by the public sector led to a sharp increase in the overall job data, while private sector hiring slowed significantly. Overall workers added in June were 147K, higher than estimates of 110K. However, job-seekers hired by private employers were 74K, almost half of 137K recorded in May, and way below if compared to the three-month average of 115K.Although investors have underpinned the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar, it is underperforming other peers amid uncertainty surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline. The Canadian economy has not yet finalized any trade agreement with the US and is likely to face higher tariffs from next week. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.16% -0.39% -0.09% 0.08% -0.04% -0.32% EUR 0.19% 0.06% -0.17% 0.14% 0.16% 0.15% -0.09% GBP 0.16% -0.06% -0.26% 0.07% 0.11% 0.09% -0.15% JPY 0.39% 0.17% 0.26% 0.32% 0.34% 0.29% -0.02% CAD 0.09% -0.14% -0.07% -0.32% 0.01% 0.01% -0.22% AUD -0.08% -0.16% -0.11% -0.34% -0.01% -0.06% -0.26% NZD 0.04% -0.15% -0.09% -0.29% -0.01% 0.06% -0.23% CHF 0.32% 0.09% 0.15% 0.02% 0.22% 0.26% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). USD/CAD continues to face selling pressure at every attempt above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a “Sell on Rise” trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a fresh bearish momentum has triggered.Going forward, the asset could slide towards the psychological level of 1.3500 and the September 25 low of 1.3420 if it breaks below the June 16 low of 1.3540.On the contrary, an upside move by the pair above the May 29 high of 1.3820 would open the door towards the May 21 high of 1.3920, followed by the May 15 high of 1.4000.USD/CAD daily chart  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde said on Friday, “we will do whatever we must do to reach inflation target.”

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ECB is fully committed to inflation target.

Economic system needs to become more efficient before euro can boost global currency status.

EU needs to cut trade barriers further within Europe, simplify regulation.Market reactionAt the time of writing, EUR/USD is holding higher ground near 1.1780, up 0.21% on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades slightly lower at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 85.56 even as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its downside journey in the aftermath of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, released on Thursday.

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The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 85.56 even as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its downside journey in the aftermath of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, released on Thursday.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slid slightly below 97.00. Meanwhile, US markets will remain closed on Friday on account of Independence Day.The USD Index attracted bids on Thursday after the US NFP report showed a higher-than-projected addition of workers. US employers hired 147K job-seekers, significantly higher than estimates of 110K and almost flat around May’s reading of 144K, which were revised slightly higher.However, the report showed that workers added in the private sector were mere 74K, almost half of 137K recorded in May and way below if compared to the three-month average of 115K. According to the data, higher job numbers arrived due to robust hiring in the public sector, which added 73K workers against 7K in May.The NFP report clearly reflects that the private sector is refraining from adding new workers amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy imposed by President Donald Trump after his return to the White House.This week, Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, also stated that a “hesitancy to hire” and a “reluctance to replace departing workers” led to job losses last month. Her comments came after the ADP reported on Wednesday that private businesses laidoff 33K employees in June.Deteriorating labor market conditions are unlikely to allow Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to take more time to assess the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on inflation. Lately, a few Fed policymakers have argued in favor of lowering interest rates sooner to support the labor market."The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview around the last week of June.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee ticks lower against US DollarThe Indian Rupee edges down against the US Dollar in the opening session on Friday. While the outlook of the Indian currency has strengthened as the US and India are expected to strike a trade agreement before the expiration of the tariff deadline on July 9.A report from the NDTV showed on Thursday that India and the US can announce a trade agreement within "48 hours". The report also highlighted that both nations aim to bring overall duty barriers down to promote a healthy competitive environment. However, New Delhi aims to safeguard its agriculture sector and labor-intensive companies, such as leather, footwear, and clothes from getting exposed to competition from US companies.The comments from US President Trump on Wednesday also indicated that the deal will allow US companies to compete in India. “I think we are going to have a deal with India. And that is going to be a different kind of a deal. It is going to be a deal where we are able to go in and compete. Right now, India does not accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we are going to have a deal for much lower tariffs,” Trump said, ANI News reported.Meanwhile, Indian bourses continue to face sell-off from Foreign Institutional Investors, which are expected to have been lightening their positions ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. FIIs have been sellers in the first trading days of July and have sold Rs. 5012.95 crores worth of equities.At open, both Nifty and Sensex trade cautiously as investors await developments on trade negotiations between the US and its trading partners. At the time of writing, Nifty50 trades flat around 25,400, and Sensex30 wobbles near 83,300.Ahead of the tariff deadline, US President Trump has stated that he will send letters to those nations with whom a trade agreement has not been finalized, outlining additional import duty rates.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMAThe USD/INR pair oscillates well inside Thursday’s trading range at open on Friday. The pair faced a sharp selling pressure on Thursday after breaking below the tight range formed between 85.56 and 86.00 in the June 30-July 2 period.The near-term trend of the pair remains bearish as it stays below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.70.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below 50.00, indicating that the trend is on the downside.Looking down, the May 27 low of 85.10 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, Wednesday’s high of 86.13 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

EUR/JPY retreats after reaching one-year highs on Thursday, trading around 170.10 during the Asian hours on Friday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY may retest the new yearly high at 170.61, marked on Thursday.The 14-day RSI remains near 70, signaling overbought conditions and the possibility of a downward correction.The nine-day EMA of 169.39 would act as the primary support.EUR/JPY retreats after reaching one-year highs on Thursday, trading around 170.10 during the Asian hours on Friday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.The market outlook remains bullish as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is continuing to hover around the 70 mark. However, traders may exercise caution, as the pair appears overbought and a potential downward correction could be on the horizon. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the yearly high at 170.61, which was recorded on July 3. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the bullish bias and support the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 172.10.The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 169.39. Further declines would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 167.50, followed by the 50-day EMA at 165.83. A break below the 50-day EMA would weaken the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to navigate the area around the “throwback resistance” at 161.00EUR/JPY: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.18% -0.39% -0.08% 0.04% -0.07% -0.31% EUR 0.19% 0.04% -0.17% 0.14% 0.11% 0.10% -0.08% GBP 0.18% -0.04% -0.24% 0.11% 0.09% 0.07% -0.12% JPY 0.39% 0.17% 0.24% 0.32% 0.30% 0.24% -0.01% CAD 0.08% -0.14% -0.11% -0.32% -0.02% -0.02% -0.21% AUD -0.04% -0.11% -0.09% -0.30% 0.02% -0.06% -0.21% NZD 0.07% -0.10% -0.07% -0.24% 0.02% 0.06% -0.18% CHF 0.31% 0.08% 0.12% 0.01% 0.21% 0.21% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 1% in May

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 0.3% to 1.4% in May

Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady below the $37.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains within striking distance of over a two-week high touched the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver consolidates just below its highest level in more than two weeks set on Thursday.The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets.Any corrective slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned.Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady below the $37.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains within striking distance of over a two-week high touched the previous day. Meanwhile, the constructive technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the upside. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) remains above 50 and validates the positive outlook for the XAG/USD. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the signal line on the daily chart are yet to confirm bullish bias, suggesting that any subsequent move up could stall near the $37.30-$37.35 region, or the highest level since February 2012 touched earlier this month. Some follow-through buying, however, would set the stage for an extension of a nearly three-month-old uptrend.On the flip side, the $36.50-$36.45 area now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the XAG/USD could slide to the $36.15-$36.10 region. A further decline below the $36.00 mark could extend towards the $35.50-$35.40 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and a convincing break below would shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders. The white metal might then accelerate the corrective fall towards the next relevant support near the $35.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the latter should pave the way for deeper losses and drag the XAG/USD to an intermediate support near the $34.75 en route to the $34.45 region.Silver 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

FX option expiries for Jul 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1850 555mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 143.50 600m143.60 712mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.7800 560mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6400 995m0.6500 1.6b0.6600 2.9b

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,179.10 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,139.19 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 107,063.80 per tola from INR 106,597.70 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,179.10 10 Grams 91,792.59 Tola 107,063.80 Troy Ounce 285,505.00   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily digest market movers: Can Thursday's data sway the Fed and drive bullion? The ADP Employment Change report released on Wednesday showed that the employment situation in the private sector has continued to weaken. Analysts had expected 95K jobs to be added in June. Instead, the actual figures revealed 33K jobs lost.  President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates. On Wednesday, he called for the “immediate resignation” of Fed Powell on a Truth Social post. With the Fed’s independence coming under question, Gold could continue to find support from political uncertainty in the US, which has been weakening demand for the Greenback. Speaking at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum on Tuesday, Powell stated that "It's going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting. I wouldn't take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It's going to depend on how the data evolves.” When questioned about interest rates, he said, “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs. We didn’t overreact; in fact, we didn’t react at all. We’re simply taking some time.” FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a one-and-a-half-week high touched the previous day.

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Traders dialled back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in July following the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Thursday. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, acts as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.Investors, however, remain on edge amid persistent uncertainties stemming from US President Donald Trump's trade policies. Furthermore, the US Dollar (USD) bulls remain on the sidelines amid concerns that Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' would worsen the country's fiscal situation. This, in turn, offers some support to the safe-haven Gold price and helps limit the downside amid relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the Independence Day holiday in the US.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from a combination of factorsThe US Dollar touched a one-week high on Thursday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, beating forecasts of 111,000. Adding to this, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1%, from 4.2% in May, and dashed hopes of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.Other details of the report showed that wage growth, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, slowed to 0.2% in June from 0.4% previously and retreated to 3.7% from 3.8% in May. This helps to ease inflation concerns and keeps the door open for at least two 25 basis points rate reductions by the end of this year.US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the legislation will add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt. This could further worsen America’s long-term debt problems, which caps the USD and supports the Gold price.Meanwhile, Trump said that he plans to start sending letters informing trading partners of their tariff rates as soon as Friday, as negotiations to avoid higher US levies enter the final stretch. His comments come days before the July 9 deadline for steeper reciprocal tariffs and further act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.US markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day, warranting caution before placing aggressive bets around the XAU/USD amid the holiday-thinned liquidity. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to snap a two-week losing streak and the supportive fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders.Gold price needs to find acceptance above 100-SMA on H4 for bulls to seize controlFrom a technical perspective, this week's repeated failures to build on the momentum beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart warrant some caution for the XAU/USD bulls. The said barrier is currently pegged near the $3,352-3,355 area and should act as a key pivotal point. This is closely followed by the overnight swing high, around the $3,365-3,366 region, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 round figure.On the flip side, the $3,326-3,325 area now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,311-3,310 region and the $3,300 round figure. A convincing break below the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the slide to the next relevant support near the $3,270 horizontal zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards retesting the monthly swing low, around the $3,248-3,248 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

GBP/USD holds ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains steady as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates as traders adopt caution, while seeking clarity on US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.

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The pair remains steady as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates as traders adopt caution, while seeking clarity on US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries. On Thursday, Trump told reporters that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.” He added that he would send letters to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%, reported by Reuters.The GBP/USD pair maintains its position as the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support after Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer’s defense of Chancellor Rachel Reeves. PM Starmer affirmed that she would remain in her role of chancellor “for a very long time to come.” This helped ease market concerns that a potential replacement might adopt a looser fiscal stance with increased borrowing.The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to deliver an interest rate cut in August, taking the central bank’s base rate to 4%, following dovish remarks from officials. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Tuesday that interest rates should come down gradually as inflationary pressures appear to be easing.Meanwhile, BoE policymaker Alan Taylor spoke at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, in Sintra, on Wednesday, saying that I don't think bigger cuts are necessarily needed or desirable. Everything has to be taken into consideration; we are not on a preset path on rates, Taylor added. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Friday that “China and US stepping up efforts to implement the outcomes of the London framework.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Friday that “China and US stepping up efforts to implement the outcomes of the London framework.”Additional takeawaysChina is reviewing applications for export licenses of controlled items in accordance with laws and regulations.

Hopes the US to continue to work with China in the same direction and further correct wrong practices.

The US has informed China on canceling restrictive measures against China.

Teams on both sides are stepping up efforts to implement the outcomes of the London framework.

Hope the US will jointly promote China-US economic and trade relations in a stable and far-reaching manner.

London framework was ‘hard-won’, dialogue and cooperation is the right way.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

The EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.1760 during the Asian session on Friday. The major currency pair exhibits a lackluster performance amid a holiday in the United States (US) markets on account of Independence Day.

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The major currency pair exhibits a lackluster performance amid a holiday in the United States (US) markets on account of Independence Day.The US Dollar (USD) holds the recovery move stemming from better-than-projected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June. The data showed on Thursday that the US economy added 147K fresh workers, higher than expectations of 110K.Better-than-projected NFP data has offered some relief to the US Dollar; however, it is unlikely to sustain as the report shows that the private sector hiring was losing momentum. Private employers added 74K workers in June, way below compared to the three-month average of 115K. This scenario is unlikely to provide relief to a few Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who argued in favor of reducing interest rates in the policy meeting later this month after citing potential labor market risks.Meanwhile, investors are cautious as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, and US President Donald Trump has stated that he will send letters to those nations with whom a trade agreement has not been finalized, outlining the tariff rates.In the Eurozone region, a sharp appreciation of the Euro (EUR) has triggered fears that inflation may undershoot the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target. According to a senior ECB official, "The ECB may need to signal that too much strengthening in the euro could be an issue, as it might lead inflation to hover below targets, Financial Times (FT) reported. The scenario of strengthening the domestic currency often diminishes the competitiveness of products from export-oriented firms, which forces them to offer products to home country at lower rates.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

NZD/USD remains subdued for the third successive session, trading around 0.6070 during the Asian hours on Friday.

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The pair depreciated as the US Dollar (USD) received support from stronger-than-expected US job growth and a surprise drop in the unemployment rate data, overshadowing investors' hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.Traders also await clarity on US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries. Trump said late Thursday that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.” He told reporters that he would send letters to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%, per Reuters.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report took the spotlight on Thursday, landing in a shortened trading week due to US Independence Day. However, markets seem more attuned to the broader trend, as political and fiscal uncertainties continue to weigh on investor sentiment.NFP indicated that the US labor force grew by 147,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 110,000 in June. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 233,000, down from 237,000, reflecting a resilient US labor market.US President Donald Trump's “one, big, beautiful” tax bill passed the House of Representatives and was sent to him for signing into law. The legislation includes significant tax cuts designed to stimulate economic growth. Trump hailed the bill's passage on Truth Social, calling it a “historic victory for American workers, families, and businesses.”The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to hold its cash rate steady at 3.25% next week. However, investors continue to anticipate one or two additional 25 basis point cuts later this year, amid ongoing concerns about the economic impact of US tariffs. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) scales higher during the Asian session on Friday following the release of strong domestic Household Spending data, which keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

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The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations back the case for further losses for the pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) scales higher during the Asian session on Friday following the release of strong domestic Household Spending data, which keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, drags the USD/JPY pair away from a one-week high, around the 145.20-145.25 region touched in reaction to the upbeat US monthly jobs data on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors remain worried that global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies could complicate the BoJ's efforts to normalise monetary policy. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment might cap gains for the safe-haven JPY and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid the expected thin liquidity on the back of a US holiday. Japanese Yen strengthens in reaction to stronger Household Spending dataThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that the economy added 147,000 new jobs in June compared to the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 144,000 and the 110,000 expected. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1% from 4.2% in May and pointed to a still resilient US labor market. The topline beat gives the Federal Reserve space to stick to its wait-and-see approach amid the uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump's trade policies. This, in turn, pushed the US Dollar (USD) and the USD/JPY pair to a fresh weekly high, though the momentum lacked strong follow-through or bullish conviction. Additional details revealed that annual wage inflation growth, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, retreated to 3.7% from 3.8% in May. This was short of the analysts' estimate of a 3.9% rise. This, along with concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition, contributes to capping the upside for the buck. US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday, averting the near-term prospect of a US government default. The legislation would explode the federal deficit as it is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next decade. This would make America’s long-term debt problems even worse and hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, capping the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen attracts some buying during the Asian session on Friday after a government report showed that  Household Spending surpassed even the most optimistic estimates and rose 4.7% in May from a year earlier. The upbeat data reignites speculation of near-term interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.In contrast, traders still see a greater chance that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September and lower borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points by the end of this year. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's slide, though trade uncertainties might hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets.USD/JPY technical setup warrants caution for bulls; 144.00 mark holds the keyThe overnight breakout through the 144.65-144.70 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July downfall – was seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. However, failure near the 145.25 supply zone, which nears the 50% retracement level, and the subsequent pullback warrant some caution before positioning for any meaningful upside. Meanwhile, any further slide is likely to find some support near the 144.20 horizontal zone ahead of the 144.00 round figure, or the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level. A convincing break below the latter might shift the bias back in favor of bearish traders and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 143.45 intermediate support en route to the 143.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 142.70-142.65 region, or a one-month low touched on Tuesday.On the flip side, the 145.00 psychological mark might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 145.25-145.30 zone. Some follow-through buying should allow the USD/JPY pair to test the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level and conquer the 146.00 round figure. Economic Indicator Overall Household Spending (YoY) The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.7% Consensus: 1.2% Previous: -0.1% Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $66.10 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price drops as concerns over weakening oil demand rise amid decreasing odds of Fed rate cuts.The US NFP showed 147,000 new jobs added, while the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% in June.The US Treasury and State Departments announced sanctions targeting a network involved in smuggling Iranian Oil.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $66.10 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices depreciate due to potential easing of Oil demand, driven by the solid job market, bolstering the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates on hold. This is important to note that higher borrowing cost dampens economic activities in the United States (US), the world’s largest Oil consumer, and weaken crude prices.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed that the US labor force grew by 147,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 110,000 in June. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 233,000, down from 237,000.Moreover, investors are also awaiting clarity on US President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries. Trump said late Thursday that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.” He told reporters that he would send letters to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%, per Reuters.Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, are prepared to announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August at their meeting this weekend. The total output increase in 2025 will raise the gain to 1.78 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to more than 1.5% of global oil demand.The downside of the Oil prices could be restrained as on Thursday, the US Treasury and State departments announced separate sanctions against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi Oil and a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, according to Reuters. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The USD/CAD pair oscillated in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday and remains close to a nearly three-week low touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3575 area, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.

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Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3575 area, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up that followed the release of a stronger-than-expected headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report amid US fiscal concerns. US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday. The legislation is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt and to explode the federal deficit. This, in turn, caps the recent USD recovery from a multi-year low and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices struggle to lure buyers amid expectations that the OPEC+ will announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August. The black liquid, however, manages to preserve weekly gains and underpins the commodity-linked Loonie, contributing to capping the USD/CAD pair. That said, persistent trade-related uncertainties might hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the weekend, and relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the US Independence Day holiday.From a technical perspective, the formation of a descending channel points to a well-established short-term downtrend. This, along with negative oscillators, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the downside. Bearish traders, however, might wait for a sustained break below the trend-channel support before placing fresh bets and positioning for an extension of the fall witnessed over the past two weeks or so. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that he “will begin sending letters on trade tariffs starting Friday.”

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as stronger-than-expected US job growth and a surprise drop in the unemployment rate data overshadow investors' hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.

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However, markets appear more focused on the broader trend, with political and fiscal concerns deterring investors. Although strong jobs numbers might typically support the US Dollar and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.Traders will likely observe the upcoming monthly household spending indicator from Australia, due later in the day. The focus will shift toward the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting next week. Markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut, which would lower the cash rate to 3.60%.Australian Dollar declines against US Dollar following labor market dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading lower at around 97.00 at the time of writing.US President Donald Trump's “one, big, beautiful” tax bill was passed by the House of Representatives and sent to Trump to be signed into law.NFP indicated that the US labor force grew by 147,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 110,000 in June. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 233,000, down from 237,000, reflecting a resilient US labor market.US ADP Employment Change fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000.US ISM Manufacturing PMI advanced to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, coming in above experts' expectations of 48.8. The readings indicated that economic activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector improved in June. Meanwhile, US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.76 million in May, compared to 7.395 million reported in April. This figure came in above the market expectation of 7.3 million.In Australia’s close trading partner, China, Caixin Services PMI declined to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, missing the market forecast of 51.0. China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The reading surpassed the market forecast of 49.0.Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that trade surplus narrowed to 2,238M month-over-month in May, against 5,091M expected and 4,859M (revised from 5,431M) in April. Meanwhile, Exports fell by 2.7% MoM from -1.7% (revised from -2.4%) prior. Imports increased by 3.8% MoM, against the previous increase of 1.6% (revised from 1.1%).The S&P Global Australia Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.6 in June from the previous reading of 50.5. The reading has marked a ninth successive month of growth and the fastest pace since March. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 51.8 from 50.6 prior, indicating the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Retail Sales rose 0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to a flat 0% in April (revised from -0.1%). The reading came in below the market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Building Permits rose by 3.2% in May, as compared to the previous decline of 4.1%, but fell short of the expected 4.8% increase.Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in June from the previous 51.0. The output declined to its lowest reading since February due to adequate client inventories and weaker market conditions, data showed on Tuesday.Australian Dollar remains below eight-month highs near 0.6600AUD/USD is trading around 0.6570 on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a prevailing bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Additionally, the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that short-term price momentum is stronger.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could retest the eight-month high of 0.6590, which was marked on July 1. A successful breach above this level could support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6660.The nine-day EMA at 0.6553 appears as the primary support. A break below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6500, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 0.6470.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% 0.02% -0.14% -0.05% 0.11% -0.03% -0.06% EUR 0.00% 0.05% -0.10% -0.02% -0.01% -0.04% -0.02% GBP -0.02% -0.05% -0.16% -0.07% -0.04% -0.09% -0.07% JPY 0.14% 0.10% 0.16% 0.09% 0.11% 0.03% -0.02% CAD 0.05% 0.02% 0.07% -0.09% 0.01% -0.02% 0.00% AUD -0.11% 0.01% 0.04% -0.11% -0.01% -0.08% -0.03% NZD 0.03% 0.04% 0.09% -0.03% 0.02% 0.08% 0.02% CHF 0.06% 0.02% 0.07% 0.02% -0.00% 0.03% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1535 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1523 and 7.1688 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1535 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1523 and 7.1688 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (1.2%) in May

South Korea Current Account Balance increased to 10.14B in May from previous 5.7B

GBP/USD churned away near the low-end of a near-term decline on Thursday, bolstered by selling pressure forcing the US Dollar lower after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data came in hotter than expected.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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