Forex News Timeline

08:12 EUR/JPY finds cushion near 165.00 while safe-haven demand of Yen remains firm
The EUR/JPY pair finds temporary support near 165.00 during late Asian hours on Friday after a sharp sell-off earlier in the day. The pair slumped as tensions in the Middle East region increased demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen (JPY).

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The pair slumped as tensions in the Middle East region increased demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen (JPY).Early Friday, Israel launched a series of attacks on military bases and nuclear facilities in the northeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran, aiming to restrict Iran's economy from building nuclear warheads. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the war will would take “many days” and their military is preparing for any retaliation from Iran.Meanwhile, United States (US) President Donald Trump has stated during Asian hours that Iran “cannot have a nuclear bomb”, while reiterating his hopes for a peaceful end to the tensions. On the domestic front, investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday. The BoJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% as officials have stated that the US tariff policy has prompted growth concerns in the near term. However, they are confident that the underlying inflation is on track to return to the 2% target.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) exhibits a mixed performance on Friday as European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos has expressed concerns over economic growth amid trade war risk. “The economy had proven resilient but faced a number of risks, such as tariffs, that could curb growth,” Guindos said on Thursday.On the monetary policy front, ECB officials have signaled a pause in the monetary easing cycle. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that the monetary easing cycle is “coming to an end” as “medium-term inflation is stabilizing around target”, Bloomberg reported. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

08:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades near $36.00 support, ascending channel’s lower boundary
Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around $36.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

07:56 USD/CAD climbs to mid-1.3600s as safe-haven buying benefits USD and offsets surging Oil prices
The USD/CAD pair stages a modest recovery from sub-1.3600 levels, or its lowest level since October 2024 touched during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a major part of the previous day's losses.

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The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh daily top, closer to mid-1.3600s in the last hour, and is exclusively sponsored by the rebounding US Dollar (USD).A further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade. This, in turn, assists the safe-haven buck to gain some positive traction and snap a two-day losing streak to its lowest level since March 2022 touched on Thursday, which, in turn, prompts some short-covering around the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, concerns about supply disruption from the Middle East lead to a sharp rally of more than 9% in Crude Oil prices, to the highest level in almost five months. This, along with diminishing odds for more rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and hopes for a US-Canada trade deal, could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap any further appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Furthermore, the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September, bolstered by signs of cooling inflation in the US, might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CAD pair has bottomed out and positioning for a meaningful recovery. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:41 USD/INR soars on US Dollar’s recovery, rallying Oil and FII outflows
The Indian Rupee (INR) tumbles at open to near 86.25 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. USD/INR surges as the US Dollar attracts substantial bids on Friday, tensions in the Middle East have increased its safe-haven demand.

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The Indian Rupee (INR) tumbles at open to near 86.25 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. USD/INR surges as the US Dollar attracts substantial bids on Friday, tensions in the Middle East have increased its safe-haven demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.35% to near 98.20 from its three-year low of 97.60 posted on Thursday.Earlier in the day, Israel struck a number of military and nuclear bases in the northeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran, in which the head of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, was killed. Tel Aviv has confirmed that this is a unilateral military attack on Iran, aiming at “rolling back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival”, The Guardian reported. Meanwhile, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has confirmed that their so-called “Operation Rising Lion” will continue for “many days”.On the domestic front, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s guidance on the monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to start reducing interest rates from the September policy meeting.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump reiterated criticism of the Fed’s stance to avoid any monetary policy adjustments at the current juncture after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May, which showed that the producer inflation grew at a slower-than-projected pace. “Raise your rates. You don’t have to keep them up here. If it’s [inflation] going to go up, I’m okay with you raising--but it’s [inflation] down, and we’re going out to financing, and I may have to force something," Trump said at the White House, Reuters reported.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee faces multiple headwindsA sharp upside move in the USD/INR pair at open on Friday is also driven by significant underperformance from the Indian Rupee due to multiple headwinds, including soft India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, a stellar upside move in the Oil price, selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian equity market and dismal market sentiment amid tensions between Israel and Iran.The data showed on Thursday that year-on-year CPI rose by 2.82% on year, the lowest level seen in over six years. Economists expected the retail headline inflation to have grown by 3%, slower than 3.16% in April. This is the fourth straight month when the headline CPI has come in below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 3.7% for the current financial year, which it set last week after front-loading interest rate cuts.According to the CPI report, decelerating food inflation contributed significantly to cooling broader price pressures. The food inflation grew at a modest pace of 1%, the lowest level seen since October 2021.The scenario of cooling inflationary pressures would boost market expectations that the RBI will cut interest rates again this year. In last week’s policy meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra changed the policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral”, citing that there is little room for further monetary policy expansion.Meanwhile, surging Oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East region have weighed significantly on the Indian Rupee. Higher Oil prices bode poorly for the Indian currency, given that India is one of the world's largest oil importers.On the investment front, FIIs have withdrawn Indian equities in cash worth Rs. 3,548.87 crores till June 12 as profit booking kicks in after a strong recovery in Nifty50 since April. The outflow of foreign currency is an unfavorable scenario for the Indian Rupee.Technical Analysis: USD/INR surges above 86.00USD/INR recovers losses seen in the past few weeks and jumps above 86.00 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair bounces back sharply after discovering strong buying interest slightly below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently oscillates around 85.75.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 56.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.Looking down, the 20-day EMA is a key support level for the major. On the upside, the May 23 high of 86.44 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation. cooling

07:38 GBP/USD tumbles below 1.3550 amid risk-off sentiment
The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against US Dollar (USD) due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,480.17 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,366.50 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 110,593.10 per tola from INR 109,249.10 per tola a day earlier. FXStreet calculates Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,480.17 10 Grams 94,818.31 Tola 110,593.10 Troy Ounce 294,868.70 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold price surges as the Greenback and US yields tumble The Greenback plunges to three-year lows, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, fell 0.60% to 97.99 after hitting a multi-year low of 97.60. US Treasury yields are falling as the US 10-year Treasury yield has dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.367%. US real yields followed suit, losing five basis points to 2.097%, boosting Bullion’s advance. US Producer Price Index (PPI) in May rose 2.6% YoY, a tenth above April’s reading of 2.5%. Core PPI – which excludes volatile items like food and energy – dipped from 3.1% to 3% YoY. Every month, the PPI was mainly muted, rising 0.1% MoM below the 0.2% expected by the consensus. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.1%, down from 0.3%. Geopolitical tensions remain high as acknowledged by US President Trump, who said that Israel could strike Iran in the coming days. Sources cited by The Washington Post noted that US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about Israel striking Iran without Washington's approval. Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 51 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:35 Gold price sits near its highest level since April 22 amid fears of wider Middle East war
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues scaling higher for the third consecutive day on Friday, rising to the $3,444 area, or its highest level since April 22 during the Asian session amid the global flight to safety.

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Rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties boost traditional safe-haven assets.Fed rate cut bets also benefit the XAU/USD pair, though rebounding USD caps gains.Gold price (XAU/USD) continues scaling higher for the third consecutive day on Friday, rising to the $3,444 area, or its highest level since April 22 during the Asian session amid the global flight to safety. The global risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse in reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, persistent trade-related uncertainties weigh on investors' sentiment, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion.Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday pointed to further signs of cooling inflation and reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs further in 2025. This drives additional flows towards the non-yielding Gold price and contributes to the positive momentum. Bulls seem unaffected by a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from its lowest level since March 2022, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair remains to the upside. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from safe-haven buying amid rising Middle East tensionsIsrael launched pre-emptive airstrikes against Iran on Friday, targeting its nuclear plant and military sites. This marks a dramatic escalation of the long-running regional conflict in the Middle East and lifts the safe-haven Gold price to its highest level since April 22 during the Asian session. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the operation targeted Iran’s nuclear program and will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. Israel declared a state of emergency, saying that retaliatory action from Iran was possible following the operation.Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran's armed forces said that Israel carried out the attacks with support from the US. However, top US diplomat Marco Rubio said that America was not involved in the strikes and that Israel had told them that this action was necessary for its self-defense.Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that with this attack, Israel has prepared a bitter fate for itself and vowed severe punishment for what he called a crime. This raises the risk of a region-wide and more devastating war, weighing on investors' sentiment.On the trade-related front, US President Donald Trump expanded the 50% steel tariffs to a range of household appliances. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariff levels on Chinese imports remain at 55% and would not change from this point onward.The US Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index remained muted in May and rose 0.1% compared to a revised 0.2% decline in April. This comes on top of a marginal rise in US consumer prices, backing the case for further easing by the Federal Reserve. Traders now look to the Preliminary release of the Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations for a short-term impetus. The focus, however, will remain glued to developments surrounding Trump's trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East.Gold price seems poised to appreciate further towards testing the all-time peak, around the $3,500 markFrom a technical perspective, the recent move higher witnessed over the past month or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. This points to a well-established short-term uptrend, which, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in bullish territory, validates the near-term positive outlook for the Gold price. Hence, a subsequent move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April, looks like a distinct possibility. The said handle coincides with the top boundary of the ascending channel, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. On the flip side, any corrective pullback might now be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the $3,400 mark. Some follow-through selling below the $3,385 region, however, should pave the way for additional losses towards the $3,355 intermediate support en route to the $3,330-3,329 region, representing the lower end of the ascending channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate the constructive setup and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:32 Japan Capacity Utilization rose from previous -2.4% to 1.3% in April
Japan Capacity Utilization rose from previous -2.4% to 1.3% in April

07:31 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April

07:31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.7%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.7%

07:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.9%) in April
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.9%) in April

07:18 US President Donald Trump says Iran can not have a nuclear bomb
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb while reiterating his hopes for a peaceful end to the tensions. US officials said that they still intend to have talks between US and Iran envoys on Sunday.

06:21 EUR/USD breaks below 1.1550 due to risk-off sentiment
EUR/USD halts its four-day winning streak, pulling back from 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, and currently trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Friday.

06:00 Iran Armed Forces: Israel and the US will "pay a very heavy price"
Iran's Armed Forces General staff responded on Friday, warning that Israel and the US will "pay a very heavy price".

05:39 AUD./JPY bounces off two-week low, keeps the red below 93.00 amid the anti-risk flow
The AUD/JPY cross attracts sellers for the third successive day on Friday and plummets to a nearly two-week low, around the 92.30 region during the Asian session.

05:31 USD/CHF trades near 0.8080, drops to two-month lows due to rising safe-haven demand
USD/CHF extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.8070 during the Asian hours. The pair has recorded a two-month low of 0.8056 as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

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The pair has recorded a two-month low of 0.8056 as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.Israeli military officials said that Israel attacked dozens of sites across Iran, as the Iranian nuclear program is an existential threat to Israel. Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz warned his country to face a missile and drone attack following Israel's preemptive attack on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, per Axios.Moreover, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement that “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” “President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners.” Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Rubio added.The risk sentiment also dampens as US President Donald Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products” including household appliances, such as dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

05:26 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot as Middle East tensions rise
The Japanese Yen (JPY) advances to over a one-week high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and draws support from a combination of factors.

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A further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighs on investors' sentiment and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to the path towards monetary-policy normalization turns out to be another factor that contributes to the JPY's relative outperformance. However, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from its lowest level since March 2022 assists the USD/JPY pair pare its heavy intraday losses to the 142.80-142.75 region. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive as signs of cooling inflation and a potential weakening in the labor market lifted bets for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. This marks a significant divergence from hawkish BoJ expectations, which should continue to benefit the lower-yielding JPY and cap any recovery attempt from the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen benefits from a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and hawkish BoJ expectationsIsrael launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran. The Israeli Air Force conducted dozens of strikes across Iran, targeting nuclear and missile sites as well as military headquarters. Following the attack, Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country and warned that a missile and drone attack on Israel and its civilian population would occur soon.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that Israel took unilateral action and that the US is not involved in strikes against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh had threatened to strike US bases in the region if conflict erupts over its nuclear program. This raises the risk of a broader regional conflict and boosts the safe-haven Japanese Yen. On the trade-related front, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he will set unilateral tariff rates and inform trading partners within two weeks. Moreover, Trump's expanded steel tariffs, currently at 50%, apply to a range of household appliances, including dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, and more, adding a layer of uncertainty to the markets. A Reuters poll indicated earlier this week that a slight majority of economists expect that the Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ might continue to push for tighter monetary conditions and hike rates further as inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2% target for more than three years. In contrast, traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve would resume its rate-cutting cycle in September after data released on Thursday pointed to signs of cooling inflation and a potential weakening in the labor market. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index remained muted in May and rose 0.1% from a month earlier, vs. a 0.2% decline in April.In the 12 months through May, the PPI advanced 2.6% after rising 2.5% in April. A separate report showed US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims held steady at 248K last week, while continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million, or the highest level since November 2021. This comes on top of a marginal rise in US consumer prices, backing the case for further monetary policy easing by the Fed. The dovish outlook drags the US Dollar to its lowest level since March 2022 during the Asian session on Friday and weighs heavily on the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the Preliminary release of the Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. The focus, however, will remain on developments surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Middle East conflict.USD/JPY bears might now wait for a break below the 142.65 horizontal support before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, this week's failures to find acceptance above the 145.00 psychological mark and the subsequent fall favor the USD/JPY bears amid negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts. However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 142.65 and the 142.35 horizontal support before positioning for deeper losses. Spot prices might then weaken below the 142.00 round figure, towards the 141.65 intermediate support en route to the sub-141.00 levels. On the flip side, recovery beyond the Asian session peak, around the 143.50-143.55 area, is likely to confront a stiff barrier near the 144.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering move and allow the USD/JPY pair to climb to the 144.50 area en route to the 145.00 round figure. The subsequent move-up could lift spot prices to the 145.45 zone, or a two-week high touched on Wednesday. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:24 US President Trump to hold a National Security Council meeting at 15 GMT on Friday
The White House published a statement on Friday, stating that US President Donald Trump will convene a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room later in the day at 15 GMT to discuss the Israel attacks on Iran.

The White House published a statement on Friday, stating that US President Donald Trump will convene a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room later in the day at 15 GMT to discuss the Israel attacks on Iran.Separately, several Iranian media outlets are claiming that Iran will declare a war on Israel and retaliate "soon."

04:51 Australian Dollar falls due to risk-off sentiment amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with over 1% losses. The AUD/USD pair depreciates due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

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The AUD/USD pair depreciates due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz warned his country to face a missile and drone attack following Israel's preemptive attack on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, per Axios. Israeli military officials said that Israel attacked dozens of sites across Iran, as the Iranian nuclear program is an existential threat to Israel.Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products” including household appliances, including dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded.Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar advances due to improved safe-haven demandThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is recovering losses and trading higher at around 98.10 at the time of writing. The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be eyed later on Friday.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%). This reading came in softer than the expectation of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%.President Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the trade deal with China is done and added that it is subject to his and Chinese President Xi Jinping's final approval. "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter."China will grant only six-month rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, which suggests that China wants to have control over critical minerals as leverage in future talks, per the Wall Street Journal (gated).The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% YoY in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%.On Wednesday, President Trump stated that he would like to extend the trade talks deadline, but doesn't think it will be necessary. Trump further stated that he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit extended an earlier, temporary respite on Tuesday for the government as it presses a challenge to a lower court ruling last month that blocked the tariffs. The federal appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue, per Bloomberg.China's Trade Balance (CNY) arrived at CNY743.56 billion in May, expanding from the previous surplus of CNY689.99 billion. Meanwhile, Exports rose 6.3% YoY against 9.3% in April. The country’s imports fell 2.1% YoY in the same period, from a 0.8% rise recorded previously.Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.Australian Dollar falls toward 0.6450 near 50-day EMAAUD/USD pair trading around 0.6460 on Friday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates a weakening of the bullish bias as the pair has breached below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Additionally, the pair moving below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests that short-term price momentum is weakening. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still positioned slightly above the 50 mark, indicating a bullish bias is in play.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may further test the 50-day EMA at 0.6423.The immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6495, followed by the seven-month high of 0.6538, which was reached on June 5. Further advances could prompt the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high at 0.6687, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.28% 0.29% -0.26% 0.20% 0.79% 0.77% -0.41% EUR -0.28% 0.06% -0.48% -0.01% 0.60% 0.48% -0.69% GBP -0.29% -0.06% -0.58% -0.15% 0.46% 0.40% -0.73% JPY 0.26% 0.48% 0.58% 0.48% 1.05% 1.02% -0.16% CAD -0.20% 0.01% 0.15% -0.48% 0.57% 0.59% -0.58% AUD -0.79% -0.60% -0.46% -1.05% -0.57% -0.04% -1.19% NZD -0.77% -0.48% -0.40% -1.02% -0.59% 0.04% -1.14% CHF 0.41% 0.69% 0.73% 0.16% 0.58% 1.19% 1.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:49 US Secretary of State Rubio: Iran should not target US interests or personnel
White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement following Israel’s attack on attack on Iran.

04:44 Breaking: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $3,400 on rising Middle East tensions
The Gold Price (XAU/USD) rises to over five-month highs near $3,425 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts provide some support to the precious metal.

04:29 WTI climbs above $72.00 on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.05 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

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Trump’s tariff threats and uncertainty could undermine the WTI price. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.05 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price climbs to the highest level since February after Israel carried out airstrikes against targets in Iran, raising fears of escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. Late Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said there had been a “preemptive strike against Iran” and declared a state of emergency as the country prepared for retaliation. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Friday that Israel struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program and nuclear weaponization program. Netanyahu also targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, adding that the operation will continue for as many days as it takes. Fresh confrontations in the Middle East, the region that accounts for a third of global crude production, raise the fears of geopolitical risks and boost the WTI price. “We are back in an environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, leaving the oil market on tenterhooks and requiring it to start pricing in a larger risk premium for any potential supply disruptions,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV.On the other hand, the latest tariff threats from US President Donald Trump might weigh on the WTI price. Trump said that the trade deal with China is ‘done,’ but details and confirmation from China were lacking. Additionally, Trump stated that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners in the next one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that came with his 90-day pause.Oil traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Economic uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariff policy could drag the WTI lower. Later on Friday, the advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be the highlight. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1772 vs. 7.1803 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1772 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1803 and 7.1685 Reuters estimate.

04:11 Israel’s Netanyahu: We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that Israel struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program and nuclear weaponization program. Netanyahu also targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, adding that the operation will continue for as many days as it takes.

03:24 Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the country throughout the entire state of Israel, per Axios.

03:12 NZD/USD weakens to near 0.6050 on risk-off mood, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6065 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as losses in equity markets dampened risk sentiment.

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Risk-off sentiment weighs on the New Zealand Dollar. Progress on a US-China trade deal might cap the downside for the China-proxy Kiwi. The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6065 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as losses in equity markets dampened risk sentiment. The advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be in the spotlight later on Friday. The cautious mood and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East exert some selling pressure on riskier assets like the NZD. Israel is prepared to attack Iran in the coming days if Tehran rejects a US proposal to limit its nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday, citing US and Israeli officials.After two days of negotiations, the United States (US) and China agreed to a preliminary deal on how to implement the consensus the two sides reached in Geneva. That agreement paused US President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff on China and China’s 125% tariff on US exports, reducing them to 30% and 10%, respectively. Positive developments surrounding the world’s two largest economies might underpin the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. The weakness in the Greenback after cooler-than-expected US inflation data could also help limit the pair’s losses. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% MoM in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. This reading came in softer than the expectation of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:21 US President Donald Trump expands 50% tariffs to appliances starting June 23 - Reuters
A range of imported household appliances, including dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, and more will be subject to US President Donald Trump’s expanded steel tariffs starting later this month, per Reuters.

02:12 Israel could strike Iran within days, US and Israeli officials say - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday that Israel is prepared to attack Iran in the coming days if Tehran rejects a US proposal to limit its nuclear program, citing US and Israeli officials.

02:05 USD/CAD tumbles to near 1.3600 on cooling US PPI data
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.3600, its lowest since October 2024, during the early Asian session on Friday. Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, driven by softer-than-expected US inflation data and a repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, acts as a headwind for the pair.

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US PPI rose 0.1% MoM in May, softer than expected. Rising oil prices amid geopolitical risks could support the commodity-linked Loonie. The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.3600, its lowest since October 2024, during the early Asian session on Friday. Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, driven by softer-than-expected US inflation data and a repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, acts as a headwind for the pair. The advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will take center stage later on Friday. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% MoM in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%). This reading came in softer than the expectation of a 0.2% rise. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%. US Treasury yields and the Greenback declined after the PPI reports as investors boosted odds the US central bank will cut rates later this year. The Fed is anticipated to leave its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the June meeting. However, traders now expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by September, with another such move likely in October. Before Thursday's PPI data, traders projected the Fed to wait until December to deliver a second rate cut. Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the commodity-linked Loonie. US and Israeli officials said an Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, according to the Wall Street Journal late Thursday. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

01:57 GBP/USD taps fresh 40-month high on renewed Greenback softness
GBP/USD climbed into fresh 40-month highs on Thursday, closing above the 1.3600 handle for the first time in over three years.

01:33 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies near 93.69 after two-day slide
The AUD/JPY retreated for the second consecutive day, remained below the 94.00 figure, and printed losses of 0.25% on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 93.66, virtually unchanged.

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI: 47.5 (May) vs previous 53.9
New Zealand Business NZ PMI: 47.5 (May) vs previous 53.9

01:00 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)

00:10 AUD/USD holds gains as RBA, Fed expectations drive price action
AUD/USD is trading just below key resistance as diverging economic signals between Australia and the United States drive renewed bullish momentum in the pair, which is currently trading at 0.6529, up 0.44% on Thursday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian inflation expectations rise, increasing the likelihood that the RBA may hold back on additional rate cuts.Inflation trends in the United States ease, raising projections of a Fed rate cut in September.The AUD/USD rises as forecasts of a narrowing monetary policy divergence boost gains.AUD/USD is trading just below key resistance as diverging economic signals between Australia and the United States drive renewed bullish momentum in the pair, which is currently trading at 0.6529, up 0.44% on Thursday.Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and accompanying inflation expectations data. The preliminary June Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be 53.5, up from 52.2 in May. Meanwhile, inflation expectations over the 1-year and 5-year horizons were previously reported at 6.6% and 4.2%, respectively. Any downside surprise in consumer sentiment or signs that inflation expectations remain elevated could heighten volatility in the USD and significantly influence the near-term direction of the AUD/USD exchange rate.Inflation trends and interest rate expectations lift AUD/USDAustralia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations, reported on Thursday, surged to 5% in June, up from 4.1% in May. This increase has reignited speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could pause any dovish pivot and maintain a hawkish policy stance in response to persistent inflation concerns.In contrast, recent data from the United States has highlighted easing inflation trends and a stable labor market.These developments have solidified expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a cut for September.AUD/USD trades below wedge resistance while bullish momentum buildsAUD/USD is trading just below key resistance at 0.6537, which marks the upper boundary of the rising wedge pattern on May 26. Above that is 0.6545, which is currently the year-to-date high, reached on Wednesday.A breakout above 0.6545 could open the door to further upside toward the 0.6600 psychological level, with the 78.6% retracement of the October-April decline at 0.6722 as a more extended target. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near 0.6468, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6428, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and represents a key level to watch for a potential shift in momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 suggests that bullish momentum is building but not yet overextended.AUD/USD daily chart Economic Indicator Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 13, 2025 14:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 53.5 Previous: 52.2 Source: University of Michigan Why it matters to traders? Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:01 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back above $36.00 as the Dollar plunges
Silver price bounces off five-day lows of $35.46 and climbs past the $36.00 mark on Thursday as the Greenback gets battered, falling to nearly three-year lows. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $36.30, registering modest gains of 0.25% on Thursday, late in the North American session.

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Forex News Timeline

08:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades near $36.00 support, ascending channel’s lower boundary Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around $36.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

07:38 GBP/USD tumbles below 1.3550 amid risk-off sentiment The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against US Dollar (USD) due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:32 Japan Capacity Utilization rose from previous -2.4% to 1.3% in April Japan Capacity Utilization rose from previous -2.4% to 1.3% in April

07:31 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April

07:31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.7% Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 0.5% in April from previous 0.7%

07:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.9%) in April Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.9%) in April

06:21 EUR/USD breaks below 1.1550 due to risk-off sentiment EUR/USD halts its four-day winning streak, pulling back from 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, and currently trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Friday.

06:00 Iran Armed Forces: Israel and the US will "pay a very heavy price" Iran's Armed Forces General staff responded on Friday, warning that Israel and the US will "pay a very heavy price".

05:39 AUD./JPY bounces off two-week low, keeps the red below 93.00 amid the anti-risk flow The AUD/JPY cross attracts sellers for the third successive day on Friday and plummets to a nearly two-week low, around the 92.30 region during the Asian session.

05:26 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot as Middle East tensions rise The Japanese Yen (JPY) advances to over a one-week high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and draws support from a combination of factors.

04:51 Australian Dollar falls due to risk-off sentiment amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with over 1% losses. The AUD/USD pair depreciates due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

04:49 US Secretary of State Rubio: Iran should not target US interests or personnel White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement following Israel’s attack on attack on Iran.

04:29 WTI climbs above $72.00 on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.05 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1772 vs. 7.1803 previous On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1772 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1803 and 7.1685 Reuters estimate.

03:24 Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the country throughout the entire state of Israel, per Axios.

02:12 Israel could strike Iran within days, US and Israeli officials say - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday that Israel is prepared to attack Iran in the coming days if Tehran rejects a US proposal to limit its nuclear program, citing US and Israeli officials.

01:57 GBP/USD taps fresh 40-month high on renewed Greenback softness GBP/USD climbed into fresh 40-month highs on Thursday, closing above the 1.3600 handle for the first time in over three years.

01:33 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies near 93.69 after two-day slide The AUD/JPY retreated for the second consecutive day, remained below the 94.00 figure, and printed losses of 0.25% on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 93.66, virtually unchanged.

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI: 47.5 (May) vs previous 53.9 New Zealand Business NZ PMI: 47.5 (May) vs previous 53.9

01:00 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%) Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)

00:10 AUD/USD holds gains as RBA, Fed expectations drive price action AUD/USD is trading just below key resistance as diverging economic signals between Australia and the United States drive renewed bullish momentum in the pair, which is currently trading at 0.6529, up 0.44% on Thursday.

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