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Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was little changed through the early Wednesday session, trading in a tight circle around 44,600 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest interest rate decision.

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Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

Russia Unemployment Rate registered at 2.2%, below expectations (2.3%) in June

Silver (XAG/USD) drifts lower on Wednesday, hovering around $37.50 after two days of muted, range-bound trading, pressured by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback extended its rally after a string of stronger-than-expected US economic data, putting pressure on precious metals.

Silver extends decline, hovers near $37.50 after hitting a 14-year high of $39.53 on July 23.The US Dollar rallies on strong macro data; Q2 GDP grew 3.0%, beating expectations.The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%; political pressure builds after Trump calls for rate cuts. Silver (XAG/USD) drifts lower on Wednesday, hovering around $37.50 after two days of muted, range-bound trading, pressured by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback extended its rally after a string of stronger-than-expected US economic data, putting pressure on precious metals. At the same time, a broader risk-on tone across global markets is further dampening demand for safe-haven assets such as Silver. Traders now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due later on Wednesday, which could inject fresh volatility into the market.Fresh US economic data released Wednesday reinforced the narrative of a resilient economy. The preliminary reading for second-quarter GDP showed the US economy expanding at a 3.0% annualized rate, far outpacing the 0.5% contraction recorded in Q1. Meanwhile, the preliminary Core PCE price index rose 2.5% in Q2, remaining above the central bank’s 2% target. However, the GDP Price Index eased to 2.0%, below the expected 2.4%, while headline PCE inflation slowed significantly to 2.1% from 3.7%. On the labor front, the ADP Employment Change report revealed a stronger-than-expected gain of 104,000 private sector jobs in July, a notable recovery from June’s revised 33,000. The data points to sustained momentum in growth and hiring, but softening inflation signals may give the Fed room to maintain a cautious tone in its policy guidance.The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the 4.25%-4.50% range in today’s policy decision. However, the central bank continues to face growing political pressure. US President Donald Trump weighed in on Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected GDP figures, posting on Truth Social: “2Q GDP just out: 3%, way better than expected! ‘Too late’ — must now lower the rate. No inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes.” While the Fed maintains its stance of independence and data-dependence, such comments may heighten the spotlight on Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks.From a technical standpoint, silver (XAG/USD) has come under pressure after hitting a 14-year high of $39.53 on July 23. The price has since fallen nearly 4.75%, slipping below the midpoint of the ascending channel that has defined the uptrend since April. As of now, silver is testing a key support level at $37.50 — a zone that previously acted as resistance. A daily close below this area could pave the way for a move toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which closely coincides with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), increasing the risk of a deeper pullback if buyers fail to defend this level. A clean break below that region would likely expose the 100-day EMA at $35.10, followed by the 200-day EMA near $33.31, raising the risk of a deeper corrective move.Momentum indicators are flashing warning signs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 50, suggesting fading bullish momentum. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned bearish, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram moving into negative territory, indicating growing downside pressure.On the upside, initial resistance lies in the $38.25-$38.50 zone. A break above this area is needed to restore short-term bullish control. A move through $39.53 would confirm a breakout and likely pave the way for a test of the psychological $40.00 level. Until then, the near-term bias leans bearish.

The EUR/GBP extended its losses in the early North American session, down over 0.15% as traders digested trading news between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

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The shared currency has been pressured since the beginning of the week, even though the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates next week. The pair trades at 0.8636 after hitting a high of 0.8659.Euro under pressure despite weak UK data, as upbeat US GDP and Fed focus weigh on cross ahead of BoE decisionEconomic data in the US showed that the economy recovered and grew 3% according to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter of 2025. In the meantime, traders brace for the release of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, at around 18:00 GMT.Economic data in the EU revealed that GDP for the bloc expanded by 1.4% YoY in Q2 2025, down from 1.5% expansion in the first quarter. GDP figures in Germany showed that the economy grew from 0% to 0.4% QoQ in Q2 2025.Germany’s Retail Sales for June rose by 1% MoM, up from a -1.6% contraction in May, exceeding forecasts of 0.5% growth.A scarce economic docket in the UK left traders leaning on last week's GDP print and Retail Sales data. The British economy seems to be struggling to grow, while sales missed estimates, growing less than expected.Money markets had priced in close to 50 basis points of easing by the BoE toward the end of the year. However, inflation in the UK has proven to be stickier, and policymakers have grown divided about the economic outlook.EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe EUR/GBP has fallen below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8657, after reaching a yearly peak of 0.8756 on July 28. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell toward its neutral line, an indication that sellers are gathering momentum. However, they need to clear the July 30 low of 0.8614 to test 0.8600, aiming to reach the 50-day SMA at 0.8564.Conversely, if EUR/GBP rises past the 20-day SMA, buyers could target the 0.8700 figure. IF surpassed, the next area of interest would be the YTD high of 0.8756. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

WTI and Brent crude rose on sanctions fears and heavy CTA buying, but positioning limits in WTI and rising global supply suggest limited upside. Prices may ease after summer as OPEC+ and US output continue to grow, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

WTI and Brent crude rose on sanctions fears and heavy CTA buying, but positioning limits in WTI and rising global supply suggest limited upside. Prices may ease after summer as OPEC+ and US output continue to grow, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. OPEC+ and US supply to cap Oil gains"The threat of secondary sanctions on Russian crude supported WTI and Brent crude prices over the last session. However, this price action was bolstered by large-scale CTA buying activity. Algos have now acheived their 'max long' position size in WTI, limiting the scope for further inflows, although this cohort still has a few more bullets to fire in Brent crude." "We continue to expect prices to subside following the summer, owing to continued supply additions from OPEC+, alongside our expectations for more-resilient-than-expected US supply growth following the Israel-Iran war."

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (-2.5M) in July 25: Actual (7.698M)

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends losses for the fifth consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as the Greenback continues its broad-based rally following stronger-than-expected US economic data.

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Adding to the bearish pressure on the Loonie, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as widely anticipated.The combination of robust US data and a cautious BoC stance is fueling upward momentum in USD/CAD. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is hovering around 1.3810, its highest level since May 30, up over 0.70% so far this week.The BoC’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75% signals a cautious stance as officials balance persistent core inflation with signs of slowing domestic growth and rising trade uncertainty. While headline inflation has moderated, core inflation remains stubbornly above 3%, leaving policymakers hesitant to ease too soon. In its accompanying statement, the BoC acknowledged signs of moderation in economic activity but emphasized that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly amid ongoing wage growth and resilient consumer spending.The central bank also flagged ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Canada trade relations as a growing downside risk. “While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations remain fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable,” the BoC noted in its policy statement.Markets had widely anticipated the BoC to keep rates unchanged, with money markets pricing in only a 7% probability of a cut prior to the decision. Still, the bank didn’t rule out the possibility of cutting rates later this year, keeping those expectations alive. According to a Reuters poll, nearly two-thirds of economists (18 out of 28) expect the BoC to begin cutting rates in September, forecasting a 25 basis point reduction to 2.50%. While there is no firm consensus on where rates will land by year-end, over 60% of respondents (17 economists) projected at least two more rate cuts in 2025, with five predicting as many as three reductions before the close of the year.Attention now shifts to Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference and the release of the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which will provide fresh forecasts on growth and inflation and may shed light on the BoC’s next moves. Meanwhile, focus also turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due later on Wednesday, where the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, after a string of upbeat US data releases, traders will be closely watching the Fed’s forward guidance for any hawkish signals that could reinforce US Dollar strength and further pressure the Canadian Dollar. Bank of Canada FAQs What is the Bank of Canada and how does it influence the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades at fresh July lows against its American rival, hovering around 0.6450. The US Dollar (USD) attracted strong buying interest following the release of upbeat macroeconomic figures, ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

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The US Dollar (USD) attracted strong buying interest following the release of upbeat macroeconomic figures, ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.Earlier in the day, Australia reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% QoQ in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, easing from the 0.9% posted in Q1, also below the 0.8% anticipated. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) favourite inflation gauge rose by less than anticipated in the same period. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI rose 0.6% and 2.7% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. Markets were expecting an increase of 0.7% QoQ and 2.7% YoY.Finally, the monthly CPI rose by 1.9% YoY in June, down from the 2.1% posted in May. The AUD/USD pair fell with the news and pierced the 0.6500 level. United States (US) data came in next. The country reported that the private sector added 104K new job positions in July, according to the ADP Employment Change report, beating the expected 78K. Additionally, the preliminary estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, much better than the 2.4% anticipated or the -0.5% from Q1. Finally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.5% in the same quarter, down from the 3.5% posted in the three months to March.Coming up next is the Fed. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold. Chair Jerome Powell will explain the decision in a press conference which will follow the announcement. Market players anticipate questions about when the central bank will deliver a rate cut, given solid macroeconomic data. Also, speculative interest will be looking for US President Donald Trump's comments, as he would not cope well with the anticipated Fed’s decision. Trump has already called for a rate cut, posting on Truth Social: 2Q GDP JUST OUT: 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! “Too Late” MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE. No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!Technical perspective: challenging July lowsThe AUD/USD pair pressures the 0.6450 area, with additional slides on the docket. The pair accumulates five consecutive days of declines and has most of the week below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels, in line with additional declines ahead. The immediate support level is June 24 low at 0.6437, followed by the 0.6400 mark. Resistance comes at around 0.6470, followed by the 0.6500 price zone.    Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 3% Consensus: 2.4% Previous: -0.5% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

EUR/USD is struggling to regain its composure after Monday’s plunge. EUR/USD has been ripe for some correction, though our 3-month forecast of 1.15 has already been tested today.

EUR/USD is struggling to regain its composure after Monday’s plunge. EUR/USD has been ripe for some correction, though our 3-month forecast of 1.15 has already been tested today. EUR to remain on the back foot on a 1-to-3-month view, assuming the Fed adopts a more dovish tilt next year, EUR/USD might head higher in 2026, potentially to 1.20 in the spring, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. Trade deals topic is unlikely to fade completely for some time"The rally in EUR/USD in recent months had become over-extended. Added to this, CFTC speculators’ positioning data suggest that the market is now short USDs whilst being reasonably long EURs. This also has likely made the currency pair susceptible to short-covering in favour of the USD. Despite its soft stance this week, the EUR remains one of the better performing G10 currencies in the year to date. Since mid-March the EUR has appreciated by almost 6% vs. the USD, boosted by the widely held view that Germany’s decision to loosen its debt brake and the resultant injection of infrastructure and defence spending would unleash a wave of stimulus through the Eurozone economy.""European officials have a need to keep the US Administration onside at a time when Europe is still dependent on the US to support NATO broadly but particularly at a time when Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, the vague nature of Trump’s trade deals means that the topic is unlikely to fade completely for some time. France is continuing to push for champagne and other wines and spirits to be exempt from US tariffs and there are broad uncertainties about how the commitments for energy purchases will be met. Relative high energy costs and, for some industries, constrained access to skilled labour are additional hurdles to European exporters." "Under these conditions, a strengthening in the value of the EUR will not be welcomed by European exporters. While we expect the EUR to maintain a softened tone in the coming months, RaboResearch now expects the Fed to cut rates four times in 2026, while we expect the ECB to hold rates steady. We consequently expect EUR/USD to move higher on a 6-to-12-month view."

President Donald Trump renewed his call on Wednesday for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, citing stronger‑than‑expected US economic growth in the April-June period (+3.0%).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} President Donald Trump renewed his call on Wednesday for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, citing stronger‑than‑expected US economic growth in the April-June period (+3.0%).It is worth recalling that market consensus largely anticipates the Fed to maintain its Fed Fund Target Range (FFTR) at 4.25%-4.50% later on Wednesday. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY): -2.8% (June) vs previous 1.1%

United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (0%) in June

Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (2.75%)

Following the bearish action seen earlier in the day, USD/JPY regains its traction and trades at a fresh two-week high at around 149.00 in the American session on Wednesday.

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This reading followed the 23,000 decrease recorded in June and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 78,000.Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in its first estimate that the US' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, beating analysts' estimate for an expansion of 2.4%. Reflecting the positive impact of these data releases on the US Dollar's (USD) valuation, the USD Index was last seen trading at its highest level since late May at 99.52, rising 0.63% on the day.Later in the session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions. The Fed is widely anticipated to leave the policy rate unchanged after the July meeting. The statement language and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell will be scrutinized by investors. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about 60% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in September. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The GBP/USD pair shed over 60 pips early in the American session on Wednesday and defies the 1.3300 figure, as investors weigh better-than-expected United States (US) data. The Sterling Pound (GBP) held ground throughout the first half of the day, but capitulated to broad US Dollar (USD) demand.

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The GBP/USD pair shed over 60 pips early in the American session on Wednesday and defies the 1.3300 figure, as investors weigh better-than-expected United States (US) data. The Sterling Pound (GBP) held ground throughout the first half of the day, but capitulated to broad US Dollar (USD) demand. US economic resilience largely proved Without data from the United Kingdom, the focus is on the US, which released several first-tier figures. On the one hand, the the July ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 104K new positions in July, much better than the 78K expected. Furthermore, June reading was revised to -23K, better than the -33K previously reported.The country then reported the flash estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), showing that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, much better than the 2.4% anticipated or the -0.5% from Q1. Finally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.5% in the same quarter, down from the 3.5% posted in the three months to March. The combination of upbeat figures showed the US economy is beyond resilient in a critical moment: the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy in the American afternoon. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold, floating between 4.25% and 4.50% amid policymakers’ concerns related to the potential impact of tariffs on the economy. US President Donald Trump has expressed his anger at the Fed’s stubbornness to keep interest rates so high, and demanded that it be trimmed by at least 3 points. Whereas the Fed announces today, the focus will clearly be on the President's response to the decision. Fresh threats to fire Chair Jerome Powell will likely be at the top of Trump’s list.Technical perspective: Lower lows in sightThe GBP/USD pair has fallen for six consecutive days and currently trades at levels that were last seen in mid-May. The strong downward momentum is clear in intraday time frames with technical indicators in the 4-hour chart heading south within oversold readings but far from suggesting downward exhaustion. The first line of buyers stands at around 1.3250, followed by the 1.3200 mark. A break below the latter will back the case of a steeper decline towards the critical 1.3000 threshold. On the upside, investors will be looking for a recovery beyond 1.3360 before feeling confident enough to add longs, aiming them for a test of the 1.3420 area. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.69% 0.37% 0.42% 0.32% 0.86% 0.60% 0.70% EUR -0.69% -0.30% -0.38% -0.40% 0.11% -0.09% 0.05% GBP -0.37% 0.30% -0.04% -0.04% 0.45% 0.24% 0.36% JPY -0.42% 0.38% 0.04% -0.01% 0.52% 0.27% 0.37% CAD -0.32% 0.40% 0.04% 0.01% 0.54% 0.28% 0.41% AUD -0.86% -0.11% -0.45% -0.52% -0.54% -0.20% -0.08% NZD -0.60% 0.09% -0.24% -0.27% -0.28% 0.20% 0.12% CHF -0.70% -0.05% -0.36% -0.37% -0.41% 0.08% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) is on the back foot for a fifth straight day against the US Dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger Greenback and ongoing concerns over the recently announced US-EU trade deal, which many investors see as skewed in Washington’s favor.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD trades near 1.1475, its lowest level since June 23, marking a fifth straight daily decline.The Euro is pressured by a strong US Dollar and robust US economic data.US ADP jobs data beats forecasts, showing 104K job gains in July, reversing the prior month’s contraction.The Euro (EUR) is on the back foot for a fifth straight day against the US Dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger Greenback and ongoing concerns over the recently announced US-EU trade deal, which many investors see as skewed in Washington’s favor. The Euro remains under pressure as attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision due later on Wednesday.The EUR/USD pair is edging lower, hovering near its weakest level since June 23. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1475 during the American trading hours, down over 2.0% so far this week. The bearish momentum reflects mounting pressure on the Euro amid a broad-based US Dollar strength, fueled by resilient US economic data and growing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for now.A fresh batch of strong US economic data reinforced the bullish momentum behind the US Dollar, keeping EUR/USD pinned near multi-week lows. The ADP Employment Change report showed US private-sector jobs rose by 104,000 in July, surpassing the forecast of 78,000 and sharply reversing June’s contraction of -23,000 jobs (revised from -33,000).Signs of economic resilience continued with the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized coming in at 3.0%, well above the 2.4% consensus estimate and rebounding strongly from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction. The upbeat growth figures were complemented by the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which rose 2.5% QoQ in Q2, slightly above the expected 2.4%, though notably down from 3.5% in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the GDP Price Index cooled to 2.0%, missing the 2.4% estimate, and headline PCE dropped to 2.1% from 3.7%, signaling further disinflation. The overall tone of the data suggests the US economy remains on solid footing with sticky core inflation, justifying the Fed’s wait-and-see approach.Across the Atlantic, Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed the Eurozone economy grew 0.1% in Q2, modestly ahead of expectations for flat growth. On an annual basis, the bloc expanded by 1.4%, supported by stronger performances in Spain, France, and Ireland, which helped offset minor contractions in Germany and Italy. Meanwhile, sentiment data from the Eurozone painted a slightly more upbeat picture for July, though it did little to lift the Euro’s fortunes. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) climbed to 95.8, its highest level in five months and ahead of market expectations of 94.5, suggesting some stabilization in business confidence. The Services Sentiment also improved to 4.1, beating forecasts of 3.3 and marking the most optimistic outlook since February. Additionally, Industrial Sentiment rose to -10.4 from -11.8, slightly better than the forecast of -11.2, while Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -14.7, in line with earlier estimates.Looking ahead, market focus will firmly shift to the Fed's monetary policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. While no change in interest rates is expected, traders will closely watch for clues on the timing and conditions for any future adjustments. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.60% 0.28% 0.33% 0.25% 0.72% 0.49% 0.48% EUR -0.60% -0.29% -0.34% -0.38% 0.08% -0.11% -0.06% GBP -0.28% 0.29% -0.04% -0.02% 0.41% 0.22% 0.25% JPY -0.33% 0.34% 0.04% 0.00% 0.47% 0.25% 0.25% CAD -0.25% 0.38% 0.02% -0.01% 0.47% 0.24% 0.28% AUD -0.72% -0.08% -0.41% -0.47% -0.47% -0.19% -0.15% NZD -0.49% 0.11% -0.22% -0.25% -0.24% 0.19% 0.03% CHF -0.48% 0.06% -0.25% -0.25% -0.28% 0.15% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Gold appears to have entered a consolidation phase following a period of heavy selling. With CTAs now skewed toward buying, ETF outflows reversing, and macro funds still short, the market setup favors a renewed uptrend in the near term, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Gold appears to have entered a consolidation phase following a period of heavy selling. With CTAs now skewed toward buying, ETF outflows reversing, and macro funds still short, the market setup favors a renewed uptrend in the near term, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Selling exhaustion signals upside risk in Gold"What happens after selling exhaustion in Gold? For the first time in months, CTAs are now extremely skewed towards buying. Range-bound trading activity is akin to time decay for trend following systems, lowering the bar for selling programs to hit the tapes, which ultimately weighed on prices over the last week." "Remaining CTA longs have a large margin of safety before the next selling program kicks in below $3130/oz. Looking forward, in nearly every scenario for prices, CTAs will reacquire their recently shed Gold length over the coming week." "Chinese Gold ETF outflows have fully subsided, with healthy inflows now resuming. Macro funds remain short in Gold, likely owing to a tactical USD view."

United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2%, below expectations (2.4%) in 2Q

United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 3%, above expectations (2.4%) in 2Q

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) above forecasts (2.4%) in 2Q: Actual (2.5%)

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) fell from previous 3.7% to 2.1% in 2Q

Private sector employment in the US rose by 104,000 in July, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 23,000 decrease (revised from -33,000) recorded in June and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 78,000.

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Gold (XAU/USD) is treading water on Wednesday, hovering near $3,327 during the European trading session. The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after falling to a three-week low of $3,301.90 on Monday.

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The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after falling to a three-week low of $3,301.90 on Monday. Although price action remains subdued, Gold is oscillating in a narrow range between $3,300 and $3,330.Easing trade tensions have dampened Gold’s safe-haven appeal, keeping gains in check. However, a softer US Dollar (USD) and a modest pullback in Treasury yields are offering some support. Still, overall risk-on sentiment in the markets is limiting upside momentum as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, due Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.Gold came under pressure last week as improving risk appetite, driven by a series of trade deals, reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The recently announced US-EU deal, which imposes a 15% flat tariff on a wide array of European imports, has added to market optimism that global trade tensions may be cooling. Earlier, the United States (US) also reached a preliminary deal with Japan. Adding to the cautious optimism, negotiations are underway with Canada, South Korea and other trading partners, with hopes high that several more deals could be finalized before the August 1 deadline on Friday.Meanwhile, US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm on Tuesday with both sides pledging to maintain open communication and uphold the current tariff truce, set to expire on August 12. While no formal extension was agreed upon, negotiators described the tone as constructive. US President Donald Trump is expected to make the final call on whether to extend the truce, keeping markets in wait-and-watch mode.Looking ahead, a packed US economic calendar is in focus on Wednesday. The day begins with the ADP Employment Change report for July providing an early look at the health of the labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week. That’s followed by preliminary readings of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), both of which will help shape expectations around inflation and growth. However, the main spotlight falls on the Fed’s monetary policy decision, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, where investors will be looking for clues on the future path of interest rates.Market movers: Eyes on Fed, GDP, and jobs dataThe yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is holding near 4.33% on Wednesday, stabilizing after a sharp decline in the previous session. Meanwhile, the 30-year yield (US30Y) is trading around 4.86%  as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.The ADP Employment Change report for July, released at 12:15 GMT, showed the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of a 78,000 increase and rebounding sharply from June’s revised 33,000 decline.The advance reading of Q2 GDP is due at 12:30 GMT, with expectations pointing to a 2.4% annualized expansion, a notable rebound from the -0.5% contraction seen in the previous quarter.The core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, is projected to slow to 2.4% QoQ in Q2, down from 3.5% previously.The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. However, the real focus will be on the forward guidance as markets are increasingly pricing in a rate cut by September, with odds rising to around 65%, according to CME FedWatch. A dovish Fed tone could weigh on the US Dollar and real yields, offering a fresh upside push to XAU/USD. Conversely, if the Fed pushes back against market pricing or signals that rate cuts aren’t imminent, Gold could struggle to break above its recent range and may dip lower.Tuesday’s data offered mixed signals on the US economy. The JOLTS Job Openings report showed vacancies declined by 275,000 to 7.437 million in June, signaling a gradual cooling in labor demand. However, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July, up from 95.2 in June and well above expectations of 95.4.Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests key support near 50-day EMA ahead of FedFrom a technical perspective, XAU/USD is testing a key confluence zone on the daily chart, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,323.22 overlaps with a rising trendline support drawn from March lows. While the price is currently trading marginally below the ascending trendline, the breach lacks strong momentum, suggesting it may be a false breakout.The metal remains in a broader uptrend, but short-term momentum has weakened, suggesting indecision as traders await the next catalyst. That catalyst will likely be the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A clear breakout above $3,350 could trigger a bullish continuation, while a breakdown below the 50-EMA might expose the 100-day EMA near $3,233.71.Momentum indicators tilt bearish but lack conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 mark, currently at 47, indicating weakening bullish momentum with further room to enter oversold territory. The MACD also remains in negative territory, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line and the histogram printing small red bars, pointing to mild downside pressure. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: -0.5% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

United States ADP Employment Change above forecasts (78K) in July: Actual (104K)

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (-0.1%) in 2Q

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q

Gold (XAU/USD) is moving higher on Wednesday, favoured by a somewhat softer US Dollar, as investors trim their recent USD long positions ahead of the US Preliminary GDP release and the Fed monetary policy decision, due later today.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold is on a corrective recovery against the US Dollar with resistances at $3,345 and $3,360.Market expectations of a strong GDP and a hawkish Fed keep the Greenback buoyed near highsXAU/USD is forming a Bearish Flag pattern, with its measured target at $3,245.Gold (XAU/USD) is moving higher on Wednesday, favoured by a somewhat softer US Dollar, as investors trim their recent USD long positions ahead of the US Preliminary GDP release and the Fed monetary policy decision, due later today.

The precious metal, however, remains trading within recent ranges, as the strong US macroeconomic figures seen recently and market expectations of a significant recovery of the US Gross Domestic Product are feeding expectations of a “hawkish hold” by the Fed.Technical analysis: The target of the Bearish Flag is $3,245
The XAU/USD is showing an increasing bearish momentum. The pair broke below the bottom of the ascending channel from late June lows, highlighting a bearish flag formation. The current rebound is likely to be a corrective reaction from oversold levels on intra-day charts.

Upside attempts are likely to be challenged at Monday’s high of $3.345 and the mentioned trendline support, now turned resistance, at $3,360. The pair needs to return above these levels to break the near-term bearish structure and shift the focus to the July 22 nd 23 lows, at $3,380.

To the downside, further depreciation below Monday’s low, at $3,295, might find support at the June 30 low of $3.245, which is the measured target of the bearish flag. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. ,

The Euro (EUR) is trading somewhat defensively into Wednesday’s NA session, ignoring the release of stronger than expected data with a modest surprise to euro area confidence figures and the Q2 GDP print, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is trading somewhat defensively into Wednesday’s NA session, ignoring the release of stronger than expected data with a modest surprise to euro area confidence figures and the Q2 GDP print, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. The EUR trend is bearish"The EUR has traded poorly in the aftermath of the US/EU trade deal, reflecting a shift in sentiment with a notable erosion in the option market’s premium for protection against EUR upside.""The EUR is vulnerable from a sentiment and positioning perspective, as CFTC data reveal a sizeable bullish position among the speculative community. Fundamentals remain supportive for the EUR however, as the outlook for relative central bank policy favors a narrowing in deeply negative German-US yield spreads.""The trend is bearish following Tuesday’s break of the 50 day MA (1.0932) trend support level. The RSI is now clearly below 50 and pushing toward 40, signaling bearishness. We look to additional support in the mid-1.14s and see the near-term range bound between 1.15 support and 1.16 resistance."

Dow Jones futures tick up during the European trading session on Wednesday. The 30-stocks basket edges higher after a two-day decline, with investors awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting at 18:00 GMT.

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The 30-stocks basket edges higher after a two-day decline, with investors awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting at 18:00 GMT.At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures trade 0.15% higher above 44,650. S&P 500 futures gain 12 points and rises above 6,380.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s policy announcement to get cues about when the central bank will resume its monetary-expansion cycle, which is paused in December. After the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of July, a slew of Fed officials guided that monetary policy adjustments are inappropriate at this point of time as the impact of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump since his return to the White House has started feeding into prices.However, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and Governor Christopher Waller argued in favor of an interest rate reduction as early as this month, citing downside risks to labor market.Additionally, investors will also pay close attention to the preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The GDP data is expected to show that the economy grew at a robust pace of 2.4% after declining by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year.Meanwhile, earnings report from Microsoft and Meta will also keep investors on the tenterhooks. Both tech-giants are expected to release their quarterly results after the opening bell.  Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, entering Wednesday’s NA session with a marginal decline as market participants look to the 9:45am ET Bank of Canada rate decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, entering Wednesday’s NA session with a marginal decline as market participants look to the 9:45am ET Bank of Canada rate decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets look to tone, MPR"A hold (2.75%) is widely anticipated and risk lies with the statement tone, Monetary Policy Report, and press conference. Policymakers face a difficult task, as they balance the risks of continued trade policy uncertainty against the challenges of persistent underlying inflationary pressures. This week’s CAD weakness appears to be driven by sentiment, and we note the recent widening in risk reversals implying a rise in the premium for protection a decline in CAD." "Our FV estimate has offered little in terms of direction, and remains steady in the lower 1.36s (currently 1.3633). The recent range has been broken, with a clear push above anticipated resistance around 1.3750. The break followed the prior violation of 50 day MA resistance and now shifts our focus to the 1.3800-1.3850 congestion area from late April/early May." "The RSI is now firmly in bullish territory and pushing toward 60, offering ample room for further upside ahead of the overbought threshold at 70. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3750 support and 1.3850 resistance."

FX markets are relatively quiet with limited movement across all of the G10 currencies as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

FX markets are relatively quiet with limited movement across all of the G10 currencies as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD steady into ADP, Q2 GDP, quarterly refunding and FOMC"All eyes are on the 2pm ET Fed decision, where a hold (4.50%) is widely expected and dovish dissent is anticipated. In terms of performance, we’re seeing modest gains in GBP, JPY, and MXN and modest losses for the AUD as all of the remaining G10 currencies trade flat vs. the USD. The relative performance of the G10 currencies is offering no clear signal in terms of the market’s tone, and asset markets are confirming as equity futures consolidate just below Monday’s record high and as US yields trade in a tight range with the 10Y steady following Tuesday’s ~10bpt decline." "Treasurys rallied and the curve flattened in response to a solid 7Y auction on Tuesday, as investors offered clear signs of demand ahead of today’s 8:30am ET quarterly refunding announcement. In commodities, oil prices are pulling back from the upper end of their July range and copper prices continue to trade defensively following their recent rally. Gold prices are steady, and we’re seeing an extension of the flat consolidation range that we’ve observed since April." "Aside from the Fed (2:00pm ET statement, 2:30pm ET press conference) we look to near-term risk in the 8:15am ET ADP employment release (exp +75K), the 8:30am ET Q2 GDP release, and the 10am pending home sales data. The bar to a dovish surprise remains low, given that markets are still only pricing in 16bpts of easing for September and less than 50bpts by year end. Chair Powell’s press conference tone will be key, as markets will look to the Fed’s assessment of recent trade policy developments and their implications for the FOMC."

The US Dollar's reversal from one-month highs at 0.8075 against the Swiss Franc has been contained above 0.8040, with the pair consolidating gains after a 1.75% rally over the last three days.

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Before the central bank's monetary policy decision, the US ADP employment and preliminary GDP releases are expected to remain on the same line. Private payrolls are seen increasing by 78,000 in June, while the US is forecast to return to growth, at a 2.4% annualised rate, following a 0.5% contraction in Q1.

These figures are likely to provide further justification for the Federal Reserve to keep pushing back rate cuts until the economic effects of tariffs are clear. The bank is widelñy expected to keep interest rates on hold, but Chairman Powell’s press release will be carefully observed for clues about a September cut.
forecast to returnOn the trade front, the latest round of talks between the US and China ended without significant advances, but the positive comments from both sides support the theory of an extension of the trade truce beyond the August 12 deadline. This is another source of support to the Greenback against the safe-haven Swiss Franc. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 78K Previous: -33K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: -0.5% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture. Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

The USD/JPY pair edges down to near 148.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces a slight selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The USD/JPY ticks lower to near 148.00 ahead of the Fed and BoJ’s monetary policy decision.Investor expect both central banks to leave interest rates steady.The impact of tariffs by the US has started feeding into prices.The USD/JPY pair edges down to near 148.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces a slight selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto gains near a fresh monthly high around 99.00.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the fifth straight policy meeting when the US central bank will hold borrowing rates at their current levels.Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get cues about when the central bank could start reducing interest rates this year. Financial market participants would also focus on comments regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. This month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that prices of goods that are largely imported onto the US were partly increased by higher import duties.Apart from the Fed’s policy, investors will also focus on the preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published during the North American session.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its peers ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The BoJ is certain to leave interest rates steady at 0.5%. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to keep the door open for more interest rate hikes this year. Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to -3.8% in July 25 from previous 0.8%

Upward momentum is building, but for a continued advance, US Dollar (USD) must first close above 7.1910, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Upward momentum is building, but for a continued advance, US Dollar (USD) must first close above 7.1910, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum is building24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'continue to rise' yesterday, but we stated that 'overbought conditions indicate that the major resistance at 7.1910 could be out of reach for now.' However, USD traded in a tight range between 7.1774 and 7.1848, closing unchanged at 7.1813. The price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1700/7.1835." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Subsequent to USD price action two days ago, we indicated the following yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 7.1820): 'Upward momentum is building, but for a continued advance, USD must first close above 7.1910. The likelihood of USD closing above 7.1910 will increase in the coming days as long as it holds above 7.1660.' We continue to hold the same view."

The US Dollar (USD) has advanced further in the FX markets and after the biggest gain on Monday (1.0%) since mid-May, the dollar has advanced by a further modest 0.25%.

The US Dollar (USD) has advanced further in the FX markets and after the biggest gain on Monday (1.0%) since mid-May, the dollar has advanced by a further modest 0.25%. As stated here already this week, there is a shift in focus underway with tariff risks receding for now and the 1st August no longer seen as a key risk-event day, and the focus shifting to relative macro with the FOMC this evening and the jobs data on Friday. The JOLTS report continued to point to a labour market that may be weakening but is certainly not deteriorating in a marked fashion that warrants a shift in monetary stance by the Fed, MUFG's FX analysts Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart report.Powell may have to keep his options open for September"Fed Chair Powell is of course in a tricky position and his press conference will be dissected for evidence of him being influenced by the blatant criticism from President Trump and the pressure to cut. But it is important to note that this time there seems likely to be greater pressure from within the FOMC to cut. Centrist FOMC members may be concluding that while there has been no compelling information one way or the other on the labour market or inflation, you can’t wait forever and there comes a point when a cut could be justified. Given the uncertainties over inflation are likely to persist through the remainder of the year waiting to assess the damage could do more harm than good given the monetary stance remains restrictive.""The median dot profile is close call on two cuts. Seven FOMC members are expecting no rate cuts with two expecting just one. Eight expect two cuts and two expect three cuts. That could easily drop to one in September with no rate cut delivered. The big issue for the FOMC to determine is whether waiting longer to assess inflation risks is damaging or not and the labour market doesn’t scream weakness that is anything other than gradual. The S&P 500 at a record high also does not scream the need for monetary easing at this juncture. The lag on tariffs hitting the hard inflation data is certainly a justifiable risk to wait longer." "The key tonight is that Powell will have to keep his options open for September. There will be NFP and CPI reports before the September FOMC and while the uncertainties over tariffs impacting inflation will still exist then, if inflation has remained broadly stable by then and the jobs market hasn’t weakened, the FOMC will cut. While that outcome is still very unclear, getting positioned for possibly cut does suggest Powell tonight will make clear it’s an option dependent on certain outcomes. That could well bring to a halt the positive dollar momentum we have seen so far this week."

The US Dollar consolidates gains on Wednesday, following a four-day rally, as a series of trade deals between the US and key partners and relatively upbeat data have provided support ahead of a slew of key macroeconomic releases in the second half of the week.The USD Index, which measures the Greenb

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The Dollar stands tall, underpinned by strong US data and recent trade deals.Later today, preliminary US GDP data is expected to confirm a significant economic recovery in Q2.The strong US data seen recently might prompt the Fed to deliver a "hawkish hold" on Wednesday.The US Dollar consolidates gains on Wednesday, following a four-day rally, as a series of trade deals between the US and key partners and relatively upbeat data have provided support ahead of a slew of key macroeconomic releases in the second half of the week.

The USD Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of the most traded currencies, is trading at 98.80 during Wednesday’s European session. The pair is posting minor losses on the daily chart but remains nearly 2% above last week’s lows and on track for its first monthly gain this year. US GDP and ADP Employment might support the Fed’s cautious stanceUS Data released on Tuesday revealed a larger-than-expected decline in US JOLTS Job Openings, suggesting some cooling in the labour market, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey rose beyond expectations, yet with US consumers showing concerns about the impact of tariffs on their economies. The Greenback pulled back after the data release.

Later today, the US ADP report is expected to show a significant recovery in employment creation in June, while the preliminary GDP is likely to reveal that the economy grew at a 2.4% pace in Q2, after a 0.5% contraction in the first months of the year.

These figures are likely to give the Fed further reasons to stick to its “patience” rhetoric, after keeping interest rates on hold, as widely expected. Hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell might dampen hopes of a September cut further and give an additional boost to the US Dollar. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The current price movements are likely part of a 147.85/148.75 consolidation phase. In the longer run, price action indicates that USD could rise toward 149.20, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The current price movements are likely part of a 147.85/148.75 consolidation phase. In the longer run, price action indicates that USD could rise toward 149.20, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a 147.85/148.7524-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'advance further' yesterday, but we highlighted that 'the major resistance at 149.20 is unlikely to come under threat.' We also pointed out that 'there is another resistance level at 148.90.' Our view did not materialise as USD traded in a range of 148.13/148.80, closing largely unchanged at 148.44 (-0.06%). The price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 147.85 and 148.75." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 148.55), we highlighted that the recent price action 'indicates that USD could rise toward 149.20.' Although USD rose to a high of 148.80, it pulled back to close largely unchanged at 148.44 (-0.06%). Upward momentum is tentatively slowing, but as long as 147.40 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) holds, there is still a chance for USD to rise to 149.20."

The AUD/USD pair falls to near 0.6500 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens, following the release of the Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the second quarter of the year and June.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}AUD/USD drops to near 0.6500 as cooling Australian inflation paves the way for interest rate cuts by the RBA.The Australian inflation grew moderately by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year.Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting.The AUD/USD pair falls to near 0.6500 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens, following the release of the Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the second quarter of the year and June.The Australian CPI report showed that price pressures have cooled down. In the second quarter, inflation rose at a moderate pace of 0.7%, compared to expectations of 0.8% and the prior reading of 0.9%. On year, price pressures grew at a slower pace of 2.1%, against estimates of 2.2% and the former release of 2.4%.Cooling inflationary pressures have boosted market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce interest rates in the policy meeting in August. The RBA surprisingly held interest rates steady in the policy meeting earlier this month and guided that the monetary policy path remains on the downside.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains near its monthly high, with investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady for straight fifth policy meeting, which indicates that the major driver for the US currency will fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook.Lately, a string of Fed officials stated that monetary policy adjustments are inappropriate in the current time as the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on a number of imports has started feeding into prices.  Related news Australia’s CPI inflation eases to 0.7% QoQ in Q2 vs. 0.8% expected Australian Dollar steadies as US Dollar remains subdued ahead of Fed decision Federal Reserve set to leave interest rates unchanged as uncertainty clouds economic outlook

The European Commission yesterday published an EU-US trade deal outline explaining some of the key elements. The piece interestingly refers to the 'political agreement' reached and not an economic one or even a trade agreement.

The European Commission yesterday published an EU-US trade deal outline explaining some of the key elements. The piece interestingly refers to the 'political agreement' reached and not an economic one or even a trade agreement. The key commitments are therefore political commitments – the point being that the deal as it stands has no legal basis as of yet, MUFG's FX analysts Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart report. Markets are relieved that deals are being done"The outline confirms a work toward a quota-based deal on trade in steel, aluminium and copper in order to protect both the US and EU markets from overcapacity. But there remains no timeline on this being implemented. The 3-year purchase of LNG, oil and nuclear energy products worth USD 750bn is confirmed and the commitment to make a further USD 600bn worth of investments will be done over a period to 2029.""The final paragraph is important with the EU stating that the political agreement is not legally binding and that beyond the immediate actions committed, the EU and the US 'will further negotiate, in line with their relevant internal procedures, to fully implement the political agreement'.""So, it’s clear from this deal and the lack of detail in parts of the US-Japan deal that ongoing negotiations are likely which may well include renewed threats in the future over tariff rates. We also have the oral legal hearings tomorrow in relation to the legality of using the IEEPA by describing trade deficits as a national emergency. For now, the markets are relieved that deals are being done, but in time investors may well question the extent and longevity of some of these deals."

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) up to 3% in June from previous 1.6%

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.6% (June) vs -0.6%

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and publish the policy statement following the July policy meeting on Wednesday.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.The statement language and comments from Fed Chair Powell could offer key clues about the policy outlook.The US Dollar could weaken in case investors are convinced of a rate cut in September.The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and publish the policy statement following the July policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank will leave policy settings unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.50% range last December.The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors virtually see no chance of a rate cut in July, while pricing in about a 64% probability of a 25 bps reduction in September. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar faces a two-way risk heading into the event. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published in June, showed that policymakers’ projections implied 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025, followed by 25 bps reduction in both 2026 and 2027. Seven of 19 Fed officials pencilled in no cuts in 2025, two of them saw one cut, while eight of them projected two and two of them forecast three cuts this year.Following the June meeting, Fed Governor Christopher Waller voiced his support for a July rate cut in his public appearances, arguing that they should not wait until the labor market is in trouble before easing the policy. Similarly, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she is open to cutting rates as soon as July since inflation pressures remain contained. Meanwhile, United States (US) President Donald Trump extended his attempts to pressure the US central bank into cutting interest rates in July. While addressing reporters alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday, Trump reiterated that the US economy could be doing better if the Fed were to cut rates. Previewing the Fed meeting, “the FOMC is again widely expected to keep its policy stance unchanged next week, with the Committee maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.50%,” noted analysts at TD Securities. “We expect Powell to repeat his patient, data-dependent policy stance while maintaining flexibility around the Committee's next move in September. We believe two dissents, from Governors Bowman and Waller, are likely at this meeting.” Related news Dissent is in the air' ahead of Fed meeting The important mover and shaker will be how many Fed side with the doves tomorrow The Fed is likely to pave the way for a rate cut in September When will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?The Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference starting at 18:30 GMT. In case Powell leaves the door open for a rate cut in September, citing alleviated uncertainty after the US reached trade deals with some major partners, such as the European Union and Japan, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.Conversely, the USD could gather strength against its rivals if Powell repeats the need for a patient approach to policy-easing, highlighting sticky June inflation readings and relatively healthy labor market conditions. In this scenario, investors could refrain from pricing in a rate cut in September and wait for new inflation and employment data.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD:“The near-term technical outlook points to a buildup of bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 50 and EUR/USD trades below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since late February.”“On the downside, 1.1440 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the February-July uptrend) aligns as the next support level ahead of 1.1340 (100-day SMA) and 1.1200 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1700 (20-day SMA), 1.1830 (end-point of the uptrend) and 1.1900 (static level, round level).” Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5940/0.5975 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; tentative increase in downward momentum may lead to NZD declining to 0.5940, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5940/0.5975 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; tentative increase in downward momentum may lead to NZD declining to 0.5940, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has faded24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD dropped sharply two days ago. Yesterday, when it was at 0.5970, we stated that it 'could decline further, but oversold conditions suggest it might not be able to reach 0.5940.' We were not wrong, as NZD dropped to a low of 0.5943 before settling at 0.5956 (-0.25%). There are signs of momentum slowing, and NZD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a sideways range of 0.5940/0.5975." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 0.5970). As stated, the recent 'upward momentum has faded.' We also pointed out that “there has been a tentative increase in downward momentum, and this may lead to NZD declining to 0.5940.” For a continued decline, NZD must close below 0.5940. The downward bias is intact as long as NZD holds below the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6005 (level was at 0.6030 yesterday)."

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6500 and 0.6540 against US Dollar (USD).

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6500 and 0.6540 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated, signs of building downward momentum; AUD is likely to edge lower, potentially reaching 0.6480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD is likely to edge lower towards 0.648024-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated yesterday that 'there is room for AUD to test 0.6500,' we were of the view that 'a sustained decline below this level is unlikely.' We were not wrong, as AUD dipped to a low of 0.6496 and then closed at 0.6511 (-0.15%). There has been no increase in downward momentum and today, AUD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 0.6500 and 0.6540." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 0.6525). As highlighted, the recent buildup in upward momentum had dissipated, and 'there are early signs of building downward momentum.' AUD 'is likely to edge lower, potentially reaching 0.6480.' To maintain the build-up in momentum, AUD must hold below 0.6570 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.6585 yesterday)."

Italy 5-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.68% to 2.8%

Italy 10-y Bond Auction rose from previous 3.48% to 3.52%

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 87.49 on Wednesday, up from 87.13 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 1.92% in July from previous 2.15%

Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.35% to 0.49% in July

In the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the monetary policy committee highlighted two economic factors in particular that will influence the interest rate decision at the next meeting in August: the labour market and inflation.

In the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the monetary policy committee highlighted two economic factors in particular that will influence the interest rate decision at the next meeting in August: the labour market and inflation. And with no new labour market report due before the next meeting on 12 August, this morning's slightly lower-than-expected inflation figures should be enough to pave the way for the RBA to cut interest rates, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. A cut should not represent any headwinds for the Aussie"In the second quarter, the annual rate fell to 2.1%, which is at the lower end of the central bank's target range (2-3%). Core measures such as the trimmed mean and weighted mean, which are designed to exclude more volatile components, also continued to decline, although at 2.7% year-on-year they are still at a slightly higher level. The monthly data for June even show a decline in the overall rate to 1.9%, which indicates that the decline could continue a little further. This is particularly true when one considers that the annualized 3-month change has once again fallen significantly to 1.6%.""Admittedly, not all that glitters is gold. Inflation in services is still too high, and when the quarterly rate for non-tradables is annualized, it is also still well above the central bank's target range. But I think these points are being taken sufficiently into account in the central bank's ongoing cautious approach. The market is already fully pricing in a cut in the cash rate in around two weeks. And after today's inflation figures, I don't believe the central bank will surprise us again. A cut should therefore not represent any headwinds for the Aussie."

The Greenback steadies near recent highs against the Canadian Dollar following a four-day rally, with investors watching from the sidelines ahead of the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada due later on the day.The pair is trading right above 1.3770 during Wednesda

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The Greenback steadies near recent highs against the Canadian Dollar following a four-day rally, with investors watching from the sidelines ahead of the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada due later on the day.

The pair is trading right above 1.3770 during Wednesday’s early European session, consolidating gains after rallying nearly 1.5% from last week's lows at 1.3575. Strong US macroeconomic data and the trade deals between the US and some of its major trade partners have restored confidence in the US Dollar.US ADP employment and GDP will frame the Fed’s decisionUS JOLTS Job Openings data suggested that the labour market is cooling, and investors will be looking at the ADP report, due later on the day, to confirm that view.

Also on Wednesday, the Preliminary US GDP is expected to show that the US economy experienced a significant recovery, showing a 2.4% annualised growth after the 0.5% contraction seen in the previous quarter.

Suppose these figures are confirmed and the ADP meets market forecasts and shows a significant rebound in June. In that case, the Fed might have further reasons to keep interest rates unchanged until the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs are evident.  The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave rates on hold, but the fundamental background is quite different in this case. Inflation remains below the 2% level, and the labour market has softened, which might prompt the bank to deliver a “dovish hold” that would increase negative pressure on the Loonie.  Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.75% Previous: 2.75% Source: Bank of Canada

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to consolidate between 1.3315 and 1.3385. In the longer run, price action continues to suggest GBP weakness; the next technical target is 1.3300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to consolidate between 1.3315 and 1.3385. In the longer run, price action continues to suggest GBP weakness; the next technical target is 1.3300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action continues to suggest GBP weakness24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP dropped sharply two days ago. Yesterday, when it was at 1.3360 in the early Asian session, we noted that 'although conditions are deeply oversold, there is still no clear sign that the decline has stabilized.' However, we highlighted that 'any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.3300.' Our assessments were not wrong, as GBP dropped to a low of 1.3308, rebounding to close marginally higher at 1.3356 (+0.01%). The current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3315 and 1.3385." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our update yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 1.3360), we highlighted that the price action from earlier this week 'continues to suggest GBP weakness, and the next technical target is 1.3300.' GBP subsequently fell to a low of 1.3308 before rebounding. While downward momentum has slowed somewhat, there is still a chance for GBP to reach 1.3300. However, if GBP breaks above 1.3445 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.3465 yesterday) it would mean that the weakness is stabilizing."

At its meeting today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

At its meeting today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Market is likely to anticipate further interest rate cuts"The key interest rate has now reached the level that policymakers consider to be neutral. Meanwhile, core inflation remains significantly higher than the headline rate and is hovering around the upper end of the 2–3% target range. In addition, the latest labor market report was stronger than expected, which should ease concerns that the BoC will have to deliver further interest rate cuts for the time being.""It will be interesting to see the new forecasts and outlook for the coming months. When the last forecasts were published in April, 'Liberation Day' was just two weeks away and discussions about a full-blown trade war were still ongoing. Since then, the US has concluded deals with several countries, while Canada has recently been threatened with a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs from 1 August." "Although Canadian sentiment indicators have stabilized somewhat recently, this has occurred from a very low starting point. If the BoC emphasizes the risks associated with this trade conflict, the market is likely to anticipate further interest rate cuts in the coming months. This would weigh on the CAD."

USD/CAD is approaching key resistance at 1.3800 after consolidating gains from its June low near 1.3535. With momentum turning more constructive, a breakout could open the door to 1.3910 and the 200-DMA near 1.4000, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CAD is approaching key resistance at 1.3800 after consolidating gains from its June low near 1.3535. With momentum turning more constructive, a breakout could open the door to 1.3910 and the 200-DMA near 1.4000, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Positive divergence signals recovery potential in USD/CAD"USD/CAD decline has stalled after forming a durable trough near 1.3535 in June and has experienced a sideways consolidation. Daily MACD has been posting positive divergence highlighting receding downward momentum." "The pair is in vicinity to the upper limit of its recent range at 1.3800. If USD/CAD crosses this hurdle, a larger up move could take shape towards projection of 1.3910 and the 200-DMA at 1.4000/1.4045. The low achieved this week at 1.3680 is first layer of support."

Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground after registering losses in the previous two sessions, trading around $38.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price holds losses ahead of the Fed interest rate decision due on Wednesday.Traders expect the Fed to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.Geopolitical tensions escalate following Trump’s threat to tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground after registering losses in the previous two sessions, trading around $38.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The price of safe-haven Silver struggles despite market caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the North American session.The price of the non-yielding Silver struggles potentially due to traders’ expectations that the US Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate within 4.25%-4.50% in July. Traders are now pricing in 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates could weigh on Silver demand, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference will be observed for any signs that rate cuts may start in September.Market participants are also awaiting key economic data this week, including the Q2 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for further insight into the health of the US economy.However, the safe-haven Silver may regain its ground amid rising geopolitical tensions, driven by US President Donald Trump’s threat to tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Trump said on Tuesday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.Meanwhile, trade optimism diminished after US-China talks in Stockholm ended Tuesday without an agreement to extend the current tariff truce. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the two countries will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM): -2.2% (May) vs previous 1.5%

Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 4.1, above expectations (3.3) in July

Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.72 in July from previous -0.78

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) down to -1.8% in May from previous 1.1%

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.6% in June

Eurozone Industrial Confidence above expectations (-11.2) in July: Actual (-10.4)

The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to June of 2025 after rising by 0.6% in the previous quarter, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to June of 2025 after rising by 0.6% in the previous quarter, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.The market consensus was for a no growth in the reported period.The bloc’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual pace of 1.4% in Q2 versus 1.5% in Q1 and a 1.2% estimated figure.EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone GDP reportEUR/USD keeps its range just above 1.1550 on the upbeat Eurozone data, up 0.10% on the day.  GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.7) in July

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95.8, above forecasts (94.5) in July

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above forecasts (0%) in 2Q: Actual (0.1%)

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1.2%) in 2Q: Actual (1.4%)

As the Bank of Canada (BoC) gets set to issue a new interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 30, there is a growing sense that the cutting cycle might have already ended.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}FXStreet expects the Bank of Canada to maintain unchanged rates on July 30.The Canadian Dollar maintains a positive tone vs. the US Dollar.The July meeting could be the fourth consecutive decision with rates at 2.75%.US tariffs would remain in the spotlight at Governor Macklem’s press conference.As the Bank of Canada (BoC) gets set to issue a new interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 30, there is a growing sense that the cutting cycle might have already ended.The BoC decided to keep rates steady in June, citing a Canadian economy that is "softer but not sharply weaker" and noting "firmness in recent inflation data." Indeed, the policy rate stands at 2.75%, which remains within the bank’s estimated neutral range for interest rates, set between 2.25% and 3.25%.President Donald Trump's tariff agenda continues to be a significant global influence. Since his January return to the White House, he has dangled a slew of new levies that could ripple through global supply chains, and those threats will likely dominate Governor Tiff Macklem’s post‑meeting press conference.The BoC's Q2 Business Outlook Survey (BOS), out on July 21, indicated that Canadian firms are worried about the worst-case tariff situation but are still hesitant to hire and invest. The BOS revealed that companies' short-term inflation predictions have returned to where they were a year ago, and businesses now see a recession scenario as less likely. Earlier this year, businesses were worried that US tariffs would hurt the economy, but so far the effects have mostly been seen in the steel, aluminium, and vehicle industries.Consumers are feeling the economy’s slowdown in their own pay cheques, the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations shows. With the job market looking softer, more people say they’re uneasy about hanging on to their positions. This anxiety is permeating everyday life as households are reported to be tightening their budgets and altering their shopping habits as the trade war noise intensifies. While they don't anticipate a surge in prices in the near future, many express concern that a new set of tariffs could hinder the central bank's ability to control inflation.Previewing the BoC’s interest rate decision, analyst Taylor Schleich at the National Bank of Canada noted, "There’s growing momentum around the idea that the easing cycle is over. We disagree, and we don’t expect the Governing Council to validate this more hawkish view. Instead, they’re likely to keep guidance unchanged, reiterating that they’re proceeding carefully and monitoring the same four indicators: export demand; tariff impacts on investment, employment, and spending; inflation; and inflation expectations.” When will the BoC release its monetary policy decision, and how could it affect USD/CAD?The Bank of Canada will publish its policy decision on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT alongside its Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After that, Governor Tiff Macklem will attend a press conference at 14:30 GMT.Most economists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy rate anchored at 2.75% on July 30, extending the pause begun in May and June. The decision arrives as the Canadian Dollar quietly grinds higher, rebounding from winter lows near 1.4800 vs. its American counterpart to the current vicinity of 1.3700.Pablo Piovano, a Senior Analyst at FXStreet, said that "USD/CAD maintains its rebound from the area of yearly in the 1.3550-1.3540 range. While below its key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.4038, the bearish scenario is expected to prevail.”"USD/CAD hit a new YTD bottom of 1.3538 on June 16. Once this level is cleared, more losses could go all the way down to the September 2024 floor of 1.3418 (September 25)," Piovano said.Piovano adds that "on the upside, the pair should run into initial resistance at its June ceiling of 1.3797 set on June 23, prior to the May peak of 1.4015 reached on May 12.” The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded beyond the 52 level, which means that further upside appears on the cards over a short-term horizon. Piovano ends by saying, "The Average Directional Index (ADX) below 15 also shows that the trend lacks conviction." Economic Indicator BoC Monetary Policy Report A quarterly diagnostic review of the health of the Canadian economy, The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report is a study of the Canadian economy, including forecasts for all key metrics, as well as an assessment of future risks. Any changes in this report tend to affect Canadian Dollar (CAD) volatility. If the BoC presents a hawkish outlook, that is seen as bullish for CAD, while a dovish outlook is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 16, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Euro (EUR) is unlikely to weaken much further against US Dollar (USD); it is more likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1520/1.1600. In the longer run, the level to watch now is 1.1500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) is unlikely to weaken much further against US Dollar (USD); it is more likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1520/1.1600. In the longer run, the level to watch now is 1.1500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The level to watch now is 1.15024-HOUR VIEW: "EUR plunged and closed lower by 1.29% on Monday. Yesterday (Tuesday), we pointed out that “while the outsized drop appears excessive, there is a chance for EUR to test the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone before stabilisation can be expected.” EUR weakened more than expected, reaching a low of 1.1515 before rebounding to close at 1.1545 (-0.37%). The decline appears to be overstretched, and there are tentative signs of stabilisation. To put it another way, EUR is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, it is more likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1520/1.1600." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday, 29 Jul, when EUR was at 1.1595, we indicated that 'the strong surge in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to break the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone.' We added, 'the next level to watch is 1.1500.' EUR subsequently dropped to a low of 1.1515 and closed at 1.1545. As indicated, the level to watch now is 1.1500. Overall, only a breach of 1.1655 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1700 yesterday) would suggest that EUR is not weakening further."

This week’s strong USD performance has been driven by a combination of the US-EU deal, positioning adjustments, and month-end flows. These factors should start to fade now, shifting all the attention to data and the Fed.

This week’s strong USD performance has been driven by a combination of the US-EU deal, positioning adjustments, and month-end flows. These factors should start to fade now, shifting all the attention to data and the Fed. Before diving into the US calendar, it’s worth noting that the positioning squeeze means the dollar is in a less oversold position and therefore faces more balanced risks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Conditions for a dovish shift are in place"Yesterday’s US data was mixed. On the positive side, the US goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to $86.0bn in June from $96.4bn in May, driven by a 4.2% MoM drop in imports, while exports declined only 0.6%. Conference Board consumer confidence was also stronger than expected, although the current conditions index deteriorated, led by job market concerns. That was confirmed by soft JOLTS numbers.""Today, expect the ADP jobs figures to attract some interest despite their poor predictive ability for official payrolls, but the biggest release is the advanced 2Q GDP report. The narrower June trade deficit reported yesterday underpins our economists’ call for a 3.3% annualized growth, above the 2.5% consensus. Expect personal consumption figures to be in focus after the very soft 0.5% 1Q print. The latest consumer confidence figures are consistent with real consumer spending around 1-1.5%. The core PCE is the other major component to watch: it’s expected at 2.3% QoQ.""Following these releases, the Fed will take canter stage. A hold is the consensus call and markets are pricing near-zero probability of a cut. We doubt the conditions for a dovish shift are in place, and we suspect market pricing for September (-16bp) may be challenged by a broadly unchanged stance by the FOMC. Chair Powell is likely to face questions regarding his position amid increased political pressure from President Trump to cut rates or step down. To date, Powell has provided no indication of a policy shift, and we expect a reaffirmation of the Fed’s independence alongside his commitment to remain in office. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected GDP print, can add fuel to the dollar’s good momentum."

Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that it “hopes the US can meet China halfway.”

Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that it “hopes the US can meet China halfway.”Additional quotesMet with the US business delegation.

China welcomes US business to invest in China.

China, US still important trade partners.

Two sides exchanged views on China-US economic, trade relations.

Two sides exchanged views on us companies' development in China.

'Decoupling' will not work.

Dialogue and consultation on an equal footing are the key to resolving differences.

Before the Federal Reserve meeting this evening (European time), which will include a highly anticipated press conference, we will receive a series of exciting data releases. The ADP employment survey is likely to receive less attention.

Before the Federal Reserve meeting this evening (European time), which will include a highly anticipated press conference, we will receive a series of exciting data releases. The ADP employment survey is likely to receive less attention. This is because the survey is not a reliable predictor of the much more important payrolls, which will be published on Friday, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Fed is unlikely to take action this evening"The first estimate of second-quarter growth is likely to be more important. In the first quarter, we saw a contraction in the real economy, but this was mainly due to imports being brought forward in anticipation of approaching US tariffs. Our economists have therefore emphasised for several months that these figures must be viewed alongside the second-quarter figures, which are likely to show the reverse effect.""These special effects make forecasting growth even more difficult than usual. If growth turns out to be stronger than expected today, this will likely confirm the view of market participants urging a wait-and-see approach to the inflationary impact of US tariffs. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures are likely to reignite discussions about interest rate cuts. We would probably not have to wait long before hearing vehement calls for interest rate cuts from Donald Trump on social media again."Regardless of today's outcome, however, the Fed is unlikely to take action this evening. It will probably start to indicate that the first interest rate cut is imminent in September. On Monday, my boss, Thu Lan, hinted that the voting behaviour is likely to show at least one dissenting vote in favour of an interest rate cut, and possibly several. At the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is therefore likely to emphasise that the Fed's focus is on the slow weakening of the labour market and the real economy as a whole. Depending on how clearly he announces the interest rate cuts, the US dollar is likely to come under more or less pressure this evening (our economists expect a pronounced cycle of interest rate cuts starting in September).

Oil prices surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent up more than 3.5% and settling at the highest level in over a month. This was after President Trump confirmed that he’s giving Russia 10 days to come to a truce with Ukraine.

Oil prices surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent up more than 3.5% and settling at the highest level in over a month. This was after President Trump confirmed that he’s giving Russia 10 days to come to a truce with Ukraine. Failing to reach a deal risks additional sanctions on Russia and secondary tariffs on countries importing its Oil, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Buyers of Russian Oil might likely be reluctant to continue purchases"Russia exports more than 7m b/d of crude Oil and refined products. Thus, effective 100% secondary tariffs would lead to a dramatic shift in the Oil market. A number of key buyers of Russian Oil would likely be reluctant to continue purchases, particularly large US trading partners. The impact on the Oil balance and prices would be significant. While this gives OPEC+ room to start unwinding additional tranches of supply cuts, it would still leave the market in deficit under a worst-case scenario. It would reduce spare production capacity, leaving the market more vulnerable to supply shocks. In addition, any meaningful supply increases from the US would take time to come to the market.""The potential impact of secondary tariffs on Oil prices has us questioning whether Trump will actually follow through on such threats, at least at a 100% level. This would be a shock to the system. A significantly lower tariff level, which gradually increases over time, would be more manageable for the market.""Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute show that US crude Oil inventories rose by 1.5m barrels over the last week. Stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, also increased by 500k barrels. Meanwhile, for refined products, gasoline stocks declined by 1.7m barrels. Distillate stocks increased by 4.2m barrels, helping to ease some of the concerns over tightness in the middle distillates market."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has dropped less than other G10 currencies during this round of US Dollar (USD) appreciation.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has dropped less than other G10 currencies during this round of US Dollar (USD) appreciation. For the moment, domestic factors aren’t playing much of a role, and markets remain quite conservative on Bank of Canada rate cuts, pricing in only 15bp by year-end, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Today’s BoC meeting to generate some dovish repricing"As the BoC announces policy today, the chances of a cut appear quite low, but the risks in our view are tilted to the dovish side. The BoC Business Outlook shows limited pass-through from tariffs to Canadian consumers but signs of slower hiring, investment and consumer demand.""Then, there is the crucial point of US-Canada trade negotiations. From what has been reported, both Canadian and US officials think progress has been lackluster. And while we know that the market's baseline expectation is that trade deals will ultimately be agreed, the EU experience (and its spillover into EUR/USD) suggests the conditions of those deals aren’t secondary for the FX impact.""Given how conservative BoC pricing is and economic/trade risks, we expect today’s BoC meeting to generate some dovish repricing and add pressure on CAD. We continue to target 1.39 this quarter for USD/CAD."

US Dollar (USD) strength moderated overnight, following the pullback in UST yields. DXY was last at 98.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) strength moderated overnight, following the pullback in UST yields. DXY was last at 98.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 2-way trades in the interim"Focus shifts to FOMC tonight (2am Thursday SGT) – widely expected to maintain hold. Powell’s comments on inflation, labour market outlook will be scrutinized for timing on next cut. Markets still implied around 2 cuts this year." "On the data front, there are plenty of tier-1 data to watch out for, including conference ADP employment, 2Q GDP (Wednesday); FOMC, core PCE (Thursday); NFP, ISM manufacturing (Friday). Globally, there is BoJ, BoC policy decision and 1 Aug tariff deadline. Additionally, there may also be month-end flows distorting price action." "Daily momentum is mild bullish but rise in RSI slowed. 2-way trades in the interim. Resistance at 99.60 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 100 levels. Support at 98.30 (50 DMA), 97.80 (21 DMA), and 96.40 levels (2025 low)."

Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.6 to 2.8 in July

Portugal Consumer Confidence climbed from previous -17.6 to -15.7 in July

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous -0.5% to 0.6% in 2Q

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.9% (2Q) vs 1.6%

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 171.10 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds losses following key economic data from Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. Traders shift their focus toward Eurozone GDP data.

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The currency cross holds losses following key economic data from Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. Traders shift their focus toward Eurozone GDP data.Destatis released Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, showing that the German economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, as expected. The previous reading was a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the annual GDP rate climbed by 0.4% in Q2 after reporting no growth in Q1, while beating the market expectations of 0.2%.German Retail Sales rose 1.0% month-over-month in June, recovering from the revised 0.6% decline reported in May. The market forecast was for a 0.5% increase. Meanwhile, Retail Sales climbed 4.9% YoY, against the previous increase of 2.6%.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday as officials gauge the economic impact of US tariffs. The Japanese central bank is also expected to revise its inflation forecast higher in its quarterly outlook.Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decided to hold a joint parliamentary meeting after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resisted growing pressure to resign. On Tuesday, Ishiba agreed to convene the meeting of both houses of the parliament. However, Ishiba said on Monday that his position to remain in the office "has not changed," per NHK. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0% Previous: 0.6% Source: Eurostat

The New Zealand Dollar is showing a mild recovery attempt against its US counterpart, trimming losses after a four-day losing st¡treak, as investors brace for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later today.The Kiwi picked up from 0.5945 lows but remains trapped within Tuesday’s ra

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The New Zealand Dollar is showing a mild recovery attempt against its US counterpart, trimming losses after a four-day losing st¡treak, as investors brace for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later today.

The Kiwi picked up from 0.5945 lows but remains trapped within Tuesday’s range so far, with upside attempts capped at 0.5970. From a wider perspective, the pair has been moving back and forth within the last two months' range, roughly between 0.5900 and 0.6100.US Dollar is seen a slight profit-taking ahead of the Fed decision. The bank is widely expected to leave rates at the current 4.25%-4.50% range, but investors will be eager to know more about September’s decision. Futures markets are pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut after the summer, but recent data confirmed that the US economy remains resilient, which gives more leeway for the bank to keep its cautious stance until the economic impact of tariffs is evidenced. The risk is high for a hawkish message that might give an additional boost to the USDollar.
Somewhat earlier, the preliminary US GDP is expected to show that the US economy grew at a 2.4% in the second quarter after a 0.5% contraction in the first one, providing further support to the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a longer time. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: -0.5% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture. Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 30:

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In the European session, preliminary second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Eurozone will be watched closely. The US economic calendar will feature ADP Employment Change for July and Q2 GDP data. More importantly, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions. Related news Morning briefing: Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged BoC surveys show business fears of tariff impacts are easing The Fed is likely to pave the way for a rate cut in September Following Monday's impressive rally, the US Dollar (USD) Index preserved its bullish momentum and touched its highest level since late June above 99.00 on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the USD Index corrects lower and fluctuates at around 98.80. In the meantime, US stock index futures trade mixed, reflecting a cautious market stance. The Fed is widely anticipated to maintain policy settings after the July meeting. The statement language, and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell could influence market expectations for a rate reduction in September and drive the USD's valuation. Although no major breakthroughs were announced following two days of talks between Chinese and US officials in Stockholm, both sides noted that the meetings were constructive. According to Reuters, officials have agreed to seek an extension of the 90-day tariff truce. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Donald Trump will decide whether to extend the truce period. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.76% 0.50% 0.19% 0.43% 1.10% 0.97% 0.99% EUR -1.76% -1.27% -1.51% -1.31% -0.64% -0.78% -0.75% GBP -0.50% 1.27% -0.44% -0.04% 0.63% 0.49% 0.50% JPY -0.19% 1.51% 0.44% 0.24% 0.86% 0.75% 0.95% CAD -0.43% 1.31% 0.04% -0.24% 0.64% 0.54% 0.55% AUD -1.10% 0.64% -0.63% -0.86% -0.64% -0.14% -0.12% NZD -0.97% 0.78% -0.49% -0.75% -0.54% 0.14% 0.00% CHF -0.99% 0.75% -0.50% -0.95% -0.55% 0.12% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). In the Asian session, the data from Australia showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter. This reading followed the 0.9% increase recorded in the first quarter and came in below the market expectation of 0.8%. AUD/USD stays under modest bearish pressure after posting losses for four consecutive days and trades near 0.6500.USD/CAD climbed to its highest level in five weeks near 1.3790 on Tuesday before going into a consolidation phase. The BoC is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%. EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.1550 in the European morning on Wednesday after declining sharp to start the week. The data from Germany showed that the GDP expanded at an annual rate of 0.4% in the second quarter, coming in better than the market expectation of 0.2%. GBP/USD trades in a narrow channel above 1.3350 after posting small losses on Tuesday. After struggling to find direction on Tuesday, USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure on Wednesday and trades in negative territory at around 148.00.Following a four-day slide, Gold staged a rebound and gained about 0.4% on Tuesday. XAU/USD holds steady near $3,330 in the European morning. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The German economy contracted by 0.1% over the quarter in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.4% increase in the first quarter, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Wednesday. Markets expected a 0.1% contraction in the reported period.

German GDP declined 0.1% QoQ in Q2 vs. -0.1% anticipated.Annual German GDP rose 0.4% in Q2, beating estimates.EUR/USD keeps the green above 1.1550 after the German Q2 GDP report.The German economy contracted by 0.1% over the quarter in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.4% increase in the first quarter, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Wednesday. Markets expected a 0.1% contraction in the reported period.Meanwhile, the annual GDP rate climbed by 0.4% in Q2 after reporting a no growth in Q1, while beating the market expectations of 0.2%.

Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.6%) in 2Q

Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in 2Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) rose from previous -0.2% to 0% in 2Q

Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations increased to 2.4 in July from previous -2.1

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (-0.1%) in 2Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (0.2%) in 2Q: Actual (0.4%)

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades near 1.3350 against the US Dollar, with investors awaiting the Fed’s monetary policy announcement.Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates steady.A slowdown in the UK labor demand paves the way for more interest rate cuts by the BoE.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto gains near the new monthly high of 99.00 posted on Tuesday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, bond markets are almost fully pricing in that the Fed will leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the fifth straight policy meeting in which the US central bank will hold borrowing rates at the current levels.Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year. At least two out of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, are expected to support lowering interest rates. Before the blackout period, both policymakers argued in favor of an interest rate reduction as early as this month, citing downside risks to the labor market.On the contrary, other officials stated that there should be no rush for interest rate cuts as the impact of tariffs imposed by Washington on various imports has started feeding into prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June also showed that prices of products that are largely imported in the US have increased partly due to the levies.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling flattens against its peersThe Pound Sterling trades almost flat against its major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Wednesday. The British currency is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term as the Bank of England (BoE) is almost certain to cut interest rates in next week’s monetary policy meeting.Traders have become increasingly confident that the BoE will reduce its key borrowing rates on August 7 as United Kingdom (UK) labor market conditions have cooled down, following an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes.The latest survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed on Monday that households’ spending has diminished due to a slowdown in the labor demand. The agency reported that retail sales declined for the tenth straight month in July. However, the pace of decline in retail sales was less severe than what was seen in June. In the US, investors will also focus on the preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published during the North American session.The data is expected to show that the economy grew at 2.4% after contracting by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown at a more moderate pace of 2.4% compared to the 3.5% increase seen in the previous quarter.Economists expect the US private sector to have added 78K fresh workers in July after the 33K decline seen in June.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wobbles above 1.3300The Pound Sterling strives to hold the immediate support of 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bearish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes downwards to near 1.3473.The formation of a Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern also suggests that the overall trend is bearish. The neckline of the H&S formation is plotted near 1.3413.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, indicating that the bearish momentum is intact.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 1 high around 1.3790 will act as a key barrier.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) fell from previous 2.2% to 1.5% in 2Q

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price steadies after registering gains in the previous two successive sessions, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the early European hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price hovers near five-week highs amid rising supply concerns.President Trump threatened to tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.The Fed is anticipated to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in July.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price steadies after registering gains in the previous two successive sessions, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the early European hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices hover around five-week highs amid rising supply concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s threat to tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. President Trump said on Tuesday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline. Moreover, the United States warned China, the largest buyer of Russian Oil, it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm, per Reuters. Bessent also conveyed US concerns over China’s ongoing purchases of sanctioned Iranian Oil and its sale of more than $15 billion in dual-use technology to Russia, which has strengthened Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. Additionally, the US-EU trade deal, which has imposed a 15% import tariff on most European Union goods, helped avert a full-scale trade war between the two major allies that would have rippled across nearly a third of global trade and dampened the global Oil demand. However, the Oil prices could face challenges after the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed a surprise 1.539 million-barrel build in US crude inventories, defying expectations of a 2.5 million-barrel decline. Traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. The US Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% in July. Markets are now pricing in 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.7% to -0.1% in July

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) down to -0.4% in July from previous 0.7%

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.2% in June

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) remains at 0.1% in 2Q

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.7% in July

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous -3.5% to -0.9% in June

Turkey Economic Confidence Index fell from previous 96.71 to 96.3 in June

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in July

The EUR/GBP cross trades on a negative note near 0.8650 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) despite the upbeat German economic data.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP loses traction to around 0.8650 in Wednesday’s early European session.German Retail Sales rose 4.9% YoY in June vs. 1.6% prior. The UK central bank is poised to slow quantitative tightening after a rise in yields. The EUR/GBP cross trades on a negative note near 0.8650 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) despite the upbeat German economic data.  Data released by Destatis on Wednesday showed that German Retail Sales rose 1.0% month-over-month in June, compared to a 0.6% decline in May (revised from -1.6%). This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.5%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 4.9% in June versus 2.6% prior (revised from 1.6%). The EUR remains weak in an immediate reaction to the stronger-than-expected German Retail Sales data. The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are rushing to finalize the final details of a new trade agreement before US President Donald Trump's Friday deadline for reaching deals with countries other than China. Tariff uncertainty is likely to weigh on the shared currency in the near term. On the other hand, cooling labor market conditions and elevated inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom (UK) might convince the Bank of England (BoE) to cut the interest rate in its August meeting. This, in turn, might drag the GBP lower and act as a tailwind for the cross.Additionally, the BoE is expected to slow quantitative tightening, at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile, per Reuters.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

China’s Politburo held its latest meeting, with the key takeaways noted below.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} China’s Politburo held its latest meeting, with the key takeaways noted below.Key quotesTo hold the 4th plenum in October.
Calls to implement more proactive fiscal policy.
Will improve policy flexibility and foreseeability.
To keep policy continuity and stability in order to expand upwards momentum of the economy.
Will make efforts in stabilising jobs, businesses, markets and expectations.
Necessary to effectively release potential of domestic demand.
To implement special action to boost consumption.
Must stabilise fundamentals of trade and foreign investment.
To resolve local government debt risks.
Will promote governance of production capacity in key industries.Market reactionAt the time of writing, AUD/USD is holding higher ground near 0.6511, adding 0.03% on the day. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $68.72 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $68.91.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $71.56 after its previous daily close at $71.75.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $71.56 after its previous daily close at $71.75. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Retail Sales in Germany rose 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in June, following the revised 1.6% decline reported in May, according to official data released by Destatis on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Retail Sales in Germany rose 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in June, following the revised 1.6% decline reported in May, according to official data released by Destatis on Wednesday.The market forecast was for a 0.5% increase.On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 4.9% in June vs. May’s 1.6% revision.Market reactionThese data has limited impact on the Euro (EUR). At the press time, EUR/USD is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 1.1548. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% 0.04% -0.19% 0.04% 0.08% -0.05% -0.01% EUR -0.03% 0.03% -0.29% -0.02% 0.00% -0.08% -0.00% GBP -0.04% -0.03% -0.32% -0.00% 0.00% -0.09% -0.03% JPY 0.19% 0.29% 0.32% 0.29% 0.33% 0.21% 0.24% CAD -0.04% 0.02% 0.00% -0.29% 0.05% -0.08% -0.02% AUD -0.08% -0.00% -0.00% -0.33% -0.05% -0.08% -0.02% NZD 0.05% 0.08% 0.09% -0.21% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% CHF 0.01% 0.00% 0.03% -0.24% 0.02% 0.02% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in June: Actual (1%)

FX option expiries for Jul 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1525 1.2b 1.1550 1.6b 1.1700 1.2b 1.1710 1.3b USD/JPY: USD amounts                                  147.50 919m 148.30 935m 148.65 1.1b 149.00 1.9b AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6500 789m 0.6550 1.3b 0.6600 1.1b USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3700 764m 1.3770 980m 1.3775 1.6b

Germany Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 4.9% in June from previous 1.6%

The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US GDP is seen expanding at an annualised 2.5% rate in Q2.Investors will analyse the data from a monetary policy perspective.The US Dollar needs a strong release to take off from multi-year lows.The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting the data to show annualized growth of 2.5%, following the 0.5% contraction seen in the first three months of the year.Markets expect a solid GDP report to eliminate stagflationary fears One of the main highlights in this week’s economic calendar is the US’s second-quarter preliminary GDP figures, widely considered the most market-moving estimate of the three issued each quarter. The GDP will be released a few hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, and is likely to have some impact on the central bank’s monetary policy stance. After the unexpected economic contraction seen in the first three months of the year, investors will be particularly attentive to the extent of the economic rebound in the second quarter. A steady labor market has contributed to keeping healthy consumption levels, while the tariff outlook is starting to clarify. Traders are eager to forget the stagflationary fears that gripped markets earlier this year.Wednesday’s Gross Domestic Product report will frame the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, due a few hours later on the same day. The bank will, highly likely, keep interest rates on hold, but markets will be attentive to spot any change in the bank’s stance, and more specifically, on the chances of a rate cut in September.Together with the economic performance data, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the GDP Price Index – also known as the GDP deflator – which measures inflation across all domestically produced goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. This is expected to have moderated to 2.4% in the second quarter from the 3.8% reading seen in the previous one. These figures are important because they remove the effect of inflation, allowing for a more accurate assessment of real growth.In the same line, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model – closely watched for its real-time tracking of economic activity – foresees a 2.4% growth in Q2 GDP as of its July 25 update.When will the Gross Domestic Product print be released, and how can it affect the US Dollar Index?The US GDP report, due at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday, might have a significant impact on the US Dollar (USD). Investors need hard data to consolidate the positive feelings triggered by recent macroeconomic releases and certify that the economy is out of the woods as trade uncertainty starts to dissipate. The US Dollar is likely to be more sensitive to a strong GDP reading than to a lower-than-expected one. A strong economic performance, combined with a robust labor market and with business activity accelerating, would provide a favourable fundamental background to the US Dollar’s recovery. Bear in mind, however, that the immediate market reaction might be limited, as markets might wait for the Fed to make investment decisions.
The most positive combination for the US Dollar would be a strong GDP reading and a hawkish Fed. Not an unlikely scenario. With the economy growing at 2.5% or higher, and consumer inflation closer to 3% than to the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to hint at the September interest rate cut the market is wishing for.This might give the US Dollar the necessary impulse to take off from the year lows and create the conditions for a deeper bullish reversal. A lower-than-expected reading, on the contrary, might keep hopes of a September cut alive and keep the US Dollar recovery limited.The broader US Dollar Index (DXY) technical outlook remains bearish, but the immediate bias is showing signs of a potential bottom, after having depreciated about 12% from January´s high to July’s bottom. Technically, a higher low in late July combined with a bullish divergence and the improving bullish momentum seen on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators suggest that the downtrend has exhausted and that the US Dollar might be ready for a deeper recovery.
Bulls, however, need to breach the mid-July highs, at the 99.00 area, to confirm a trend shift, and set sail to 99.40, where the index was limited on June 10 and June 23, ahead of the psychological 100.00 level.On the downside, the July 24 low, at 97.10, is a key level to defend the multi-year low of 96.40 hit in early July, keeping US Dollar recovery attempts alive. A bearish reaction below these levels might target the 161% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May recovery, at 95.40. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: -0.5% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

France Consumer Spending (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (-0.1%) in June

France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.1%) in 2Q

The USD/CHF pair trades in negative territory around 0.8055 during the early European session on Wednesday. Markets turn cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and the US tariff deadline. 

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Markets turn cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and the US tariff deadline. The Fed is anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting later on Wednesday, though it could see a rare dissent by some Fed officials in favor of lower borrowing costs. Investors are already pricing in the odds of a rate cut in September at more than 60%, according to pricing in federal funds futures contracts.  "With labor market conditions near full employment, most Fed officials want to wait and see how tariffs impact inflation," said Tom Kenny, senior international economist at ANZ in Sydney.The Greenback edges lower after trade talks between the US and China ended without any substantive agreement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Any signs of escalating trade tensions could boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the Swiss Franc. Traders will also keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The US economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter (Q2), compared to a contraction of 0.5% in Q1. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term.  Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The EUR/JPY pair slumps to near 171.00 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The pair falls sharply as the Euro (EUR) continues to underperform its peers, following the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on Sunday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY falls sharply to near 171.00 dur to continuous underperformance from the Euro.Investors await the flash Eurozone inflation data for July.The BoJ is expected to leave interest rates steady on Thursday.The EUR/JPY pair slumps to near 171.00 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The pair falls sharply as the Euro (EUR) continues to underperform its peers, following the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on Sunday. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.77% 0.60% 0.21% 0.43% 1.01% 0.92% 1.04% EUR -1.77% -1.18% -1.51% -1.33% -0.75% -0.85% -0.73% GBP -0.60% 1.18% -0.51% -0.15% 0.44% 0.34% 0.44% JPY -0.21% 1.51% 0.51% 0.23% 0.76% 0.69% 0.98% CAD -0.43% 1.33% 0.15% -0.23% 0.55% 0.49% 0.60% AUD -1.01% 0.75% -0.44% -0.76% -0.55% -0.10% -0.01% NZD -0.92% 0.85% -0.34% -0.69% -0.49% 0.10% 0.10% CHF -1.04% 0.73% -0.44% -0.98% -0.60% 0.00% -0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Officials from the US and the EU agreed to a 15% baseline tariff rate on Brussels, which is similar to what Washington has imposed on Japan. The 15% baseline tariff rate is half of what US President Donald Trump threatened in the mid of the month."While the U.S. dollar’s strength may reflect the perception that the new US-EU deal is lopsided in favour of the US, analysts at Macquarie group said, Reuters reported.In Eurozone, investors await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July from the shared continent and its major economies. Price pressures are expected to have grown at a moderate pace.In Japan, investors await the announcement of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy on Thursday. The BoJ is expected to leave interest rates steady at 0.5%. Investors will pay close attention to BoJ’s guidance on the interest rate outlook in the remainder of the year.The tariff deal between the US and Japan is expected to be a big relief for BoJ officials, which has diminished uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.  Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 31, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan

USD/CAD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 1.3770 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD tests the upper boundary of the rectangle around 1.3780.The market outlook is bullish as the 14-day RSI remains above the 50 level.The primary support appears at the 50-day EMA of 1.3738.USD/CAD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 1.3770 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair moves sideways within the rectangular pattern, indicating a neutral bias in play. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, indicating a bullish outlook. Additionally, the USD/CAD pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting the short-term price momentum is stronger. The USD/CAD pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangle around 1.3780, followed by the two-month high of 1.3798, which was recorded on June 23. A break above this resistance zone could cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the three-month high of 1.4016, which was reached on May 13. On the downside, the USD/CAD pair could find the primary support at the 50-day EMA of 1.3738, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3713. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the rectangle’s lower boundary at 1.3560, aligned with the nine-month low of 1.3539. USD/CAD: Daily Chart Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. The Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.05% -0.02% -0.21% -0.01% 0.03% -0.11% -0.07% EUR 0.05%   0.06% -0.24% 0.01% 0.04% -0.06% 0.02% GBP 0.02% -0.06%   -0.28% 0.00% 0.01% -0.09% -0.03% JPY 0.21% 0.24% 0.28%   0.28% 0.31% 0.18% 0.21% CAD 0.00% -0.01% -0.01% -0.28%   0.04% -0.10% -0.02% AUD -0.03% -0.04% -0.01% -0.31% -0.04%   -0.10% -0.05% NZD 0.11% 0.06% 0.09% -0.18% 0.10% 0.10%   0.07% CHF 0.07% -0.02% 0.03% -0.21% 0.02% 0.05% -0.07%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third straight day, though it manages to hold above the $38.00 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Against the backdrop of the recent pullback from a multi-year peak, this could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. However, positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant some caution before positioning for deeper losses. Meanwhile, a sustained strength beyond the $38.25-$38.30 region, or the top boundary of the trading range, has the potential to lift the XAG/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $38.70 area en route to the $39.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the $39.50 area, or the highest since February 2012 touched last month. On the flip side, acceptance below the $38.00 mark would reaffirm the negative bias and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall further toward the $37.35-$37.30 region. The latter represents the lower end of a short-term ascending channel and should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken, should pave the way for deeper losses.  Silver 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downside against the US Dollar (USD) at open on Wednesday, sliding to near 87.30.

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The USD/INR pair was anticipated to gain further as the Indian Rupee weakens, following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump pointing out that exports from India could face tariffs ranging between 20% and 25%.On Tuesday, US President Trump said, “I think so” while responding to reporters after they asked about the possibility of 20%-25% tariffs on imports from India.Such a scenario is unfavorable for the Indian Rupee as the tariff rate signaled by President Trump is significantly higher than what he has agreed to in deals with Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, and the European Union (EU). A higher import duty on goods from India could diminish the competitiveness of Indian exports in the international market.Meanwhile, President Trump also stated that tariffs charged by New Delhi on imports from Washington have been significantly higher than those charged by other countries, and this should come to an end.The Indian Rupee has remained an underperformer this week as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold their stakes in Indian equity markets relentlessly. So far, FIIs have sold Rs. 41,227.73 crores worth of shares in Indian bourses. On Tuesday, there was an outflow of Rs. 4,636.60 crores worth of shares by foreign portfolio investors in the cash market.A significant weakness in the Indian currency against the US Dollar has paved the way for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention into the Forex markets. A report from Reuters showed that the Indian central bank will likely sell US Dollars to limit Rupee depreciation.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee continues to underperform against US DollarAn outperformance by the US Dollar, following the announcement of a tariff deal between the US and the European Union (EU), has also been a key factor behind the sheer strength in the USD/INR pair.This weekend, officials from both sides of the Atlantic approved a trade agreement, which diminished fears of global trade disruption.Meanwhile, investors have shifted their focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the fifth straight policy meeting when the US central bank will hold borrowing rates at their current levels.As the Fed is expected to maintain the status quo, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the central bank’s guidance on inflation and the interest rate outlook for the remainder of the year.Lately, a string of Fed officials warned that the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Trump has started feeding into prices, which diminishes the appeal of monetary policy adjustments in the current scenario. Fears of a resurgence in price pressures escalated after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that prices of goods that are largely imported into the economy have increased.In Wednesday’s session, investors will also focus on the preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades firmly above 20-day EMAThe USD/INR pair trades close to a fresh four-month high near 87.30 on Wednesday. The pair trades firmly as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher to near 86.45, indicating a strong uptrend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting a strong bullish momentumLooking down, the 20-day EMA will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the February 28 high around 87.70 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,331.63 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 9,324.35 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 108,842.50 per tola from INR 108,757.40 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,331.63 10 Grams 93,316.34 Tola 108,842.50 Troy Ounce 290,246.10   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders opt to wait for cues about Fed’s rate-cut path The US Dollar bulls take a brief pause following the recent sharp rally to over a one-month peak touched on Tuesday and ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy decision later this Wednesday. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range despite relentless pressure from US President Donald Trump. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference. There is still a possibility of a more hawkish tone amid the upside risks to inflation from higher US tariffs. Investors, however, still expect the Fed to signal a rate cut in September. Nevertheless, the outlook will drive the USD and influence the non-yielding Gold price.  Heading into the key central bank event, traders will take cues from the US ADP report on private-sector employment amid signs of a slowdown in the labor market. In fact, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings stood at 7.43 million in June, compared to May's downwardly revised print of 7.71 million and 7.55 million expected.  Separately, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from 95.2 the previous month, suggesting that consumers are feeling optimistic. This could translate into increased consumer spending and play a significant role in stimulating economic activity. Hence, investors on Tuesday will also keep a close eye on the Advanced Q2 GDP print, which could provide some impetus to the buck and the XAU/USD pair.  Market players this week will also confront the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday and Friday, respectively. This should continue to infuse some volatility through the second half of the week and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the commodity. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1560, snapping the four-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited ahead of the crucial US events.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD strengthens to around 1.1560 in Wednesday’s Asian session. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting on Wednesday. Traders will take more cues from the Eurozone/Germany Q2 GDP reports, which are due later on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1560, snapping the four-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited ahead of the crucial US events. Investors will closely monitor trade deals over the line before the August 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Also, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are rushing to finalize the final details of a new trade agreement before US President Donald Trump's Friday deadline for reaching deals with countries other than China. French Prime Minister François Bayrou called the deal a "submission," while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of "substantial damage" to the domestic economy. Tariff uncertainty might continue to undermine the shared currency in the near term. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Analysts believe that the US central bank may opt to leave its options open until there’s more clarity about the direction of the economy and the right path for policy. Investors are already pricing in the odds of a rate cut in September at more than 60%, according to pricing in federal funds futures contracts.  The preliminary reading of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) from the Eurozone and Germany will be released on Wednesday. If the reports show stronger-than-expected outcomes, this might help limit the EUR’s losses against the Greenback.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

GBP/USD edges higher after four days of losses, trading around 1.3360 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD inches higher, extending its recovery after rebounding from Tuesday’s two-month low of 1.3307.The Fed is anticipated to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in July.The Pound Sterling faced headwinds amid cooling labor market conditions and persistent inflationary pressures.GBP/USD edges higher after four days of losses, trading around 1.3360 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued ahead of US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the North American session. The US Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% in July. Traders are now pricing in 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The FOMC press conference will be observed for any signs that rate cuts may start in September. Traders are also awaiting key economic data this week, including the Q2 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for further insight into the health of the US economy. However, the GBP/USD pair faced challenges as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggled due to cooling labor market conditions and elevated inflationary pressures. This scenario could force the Bank of England (BoE) to perform a balancing act in its monetary policy decision next week. Meanwhile, lifted food sales, overall economic momentum remains weak, with disappointing PMI data fueling expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in August, and another likely by year-end as it pivots toward supporting growth. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Wednesday, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of this week's bounce from the $3,300 neighborhood.

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Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting, due to be announced later today. In the meantime, the market nervousness ahead of the key central bank event offers support to the safe-haven Gold price. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from its highest level since June 23, touched on Tuesday, turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity. However, the growing acceptance that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer limits the USD corrective slide and caps the non-yielding yellow metal. Furthermore, trade optimism warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bulls.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders opt to wait for cues about Fed’s rate-cut path The US Dollar bulls take a brief pause following the recent sharp rally to over a one-month peak touched on Tuesday and ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy decision later this Wednesday. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range despite relentless pressure from US President Donald Trump. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference. There is still a possibility of a more hawkish tone amid the upside risks to inflation from higher US tariffs. Investors, however, still expect the Fed to signal a rate cut in September. Nevertheless, the outlook will drive the USD and influence the non-yielding Gold price.  Heading into the key central bank event, traders will take cues from the US ADP report on private-sector employment amid signs of a slowdown in the labor market. In fact, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings stood at 7.43 million in June, compared to May's downwardly revised print of 7.71 million and 7.55 million expected.  Separately, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from 95.2 the previous month, suggesting that consumers are feeling optimistic. This could translate into increased consumer spending and play a significant role in stimulating economic activity. Hence, investors on Tuesday will also keep a close eye on the Advanced Q2 GDP print, which could provide some impetus to the buck and the XAU/USD pair.  Market players this week will also confront the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday and Friday, respectively. This should continue to infuse some volatility through the second half of the week and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the commodity. Gold price seems vulnerable while below 100-SMA on H4; $3,300 holds the key for bulls  From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, negative oscillators on the said chart suggest that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped. However, a modest bounce from the $3,300 neighborhood, or a nearly three-week low touched on Monday, warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a convincing break below the said handle before positioning for any further losses towards the $3,260-3,255 support, representing the 100-day SMA.  On the flip side, the $3,345 area (100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart) could act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,367-3,368 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. The momentum could extend further, though it is likely to face a stiff hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 region. Some follow-through buying, however, would negate any near-term negative bias and pave the way for a move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is halting its four-day winning streak and trading around 98.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Dollar Index halts its winning streak ahead of Fed rate decision.The Fed is anticipated to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in July.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is halting its four-day winning streak and trading around 98.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the North American session. The US Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% in July. Traders are now pricing in 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The FOMC press conference will be observed for any signs that rate cuts may start in September. Traders are also awaiting key economic data this week, including the Q2 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for further insight into the health of the US economy. Trump and his administration have kept up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sparking concerns about the central bank’s traditional independence and resistance to political influence. Trump has been particularly critical of Powell, fueling speculation in Washington and on Wall Street that he might attempt to remove the Fed chair. For the moment, however, Trump appears to have stepped back from that notion. On Tuesday, US-China talks in Stockholm ended without an extension of the current truce. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the United States (US) and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Bessent tamped down any expectation of Trump rejecting the extension. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.16% -0.11% -0.27% -0.04% -0.12% -0.23% -0.23% EUR 0.16%   0.08% -0.17% 0.10% 0.00% -0.07% -0.02% GBP 0.11% -0.08%   -0.24% 0.07% -0.05% -0.12% -0.08% JPY 0.27% 0.17% 0.24%   0.29% 0.21% 0.10% 0.12% CAD 0.04% -0.10% -0.07% -0.29%   -0.08% -0.19% -0.14% AUD 0.12% -0.00% 0.05% -0.21% 0.08%   -0.07% -0.02% NZD 0.23% 0.07% 0.12% -0.10% 0.19% 0.07%   0.05% CHF 0.23% 0.02% 0.08% -0.12% 0.14% 0.02% -0.05%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the retreating US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a one-week low touched the previous day.

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The upside for the JPY, however, seems limited as traders might opt to move to the sidelines ahead of key central bank events. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting later today. This will be followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Thursday. Given that both central banks are expected to keep interest rates steady, investors will look for cues about the policy outlook. This will influence the USD and the JPY price dynamics, which should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.  In the meantime, diminishing odds for an immediate interest rate hike by the BoJ, amid signs of cooling inflation in Japan and domestic political uncertainty, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, the optimism led by the recent US trade deals with Japan and the European Union (EU) might contribute to capping the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that the Fed will keep borrowing costs higher for longer amid a still resilient US labor market and expectations that higher US tariffs would reignite inflationary pressure during the second half of the year. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/JPY pair.  Japanese Yen attracts some safe-haven flows amid market nervousness ahead of Fed/BoJ policy updates Investors move to the sidelines heading into this week's key central bank events, which is evident from a softer tone around the equity markets and drives some safe-haven flows towards the Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, any meaningful JPY appreciation seems elusive in the wake of reduced bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.  In fact, data released last Friday showed that consumer inflation in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – eased more than expected in July. Moreover, Japan's ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito – suffered a defeat in the upper house elections earlier this month, which adds a layer of uncertainty and could further complicate the BoJ's policy normalization path.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range at the end of a two-day meeting later this Wednesday, despite rising political pressure to lower borrowing costs. Hence, investors will scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting presser for cues about the future rate-cut path.  The BoJ is also scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday and is set to hold off raising interest rates. The central bank, however, may offer a less gloomy outlook on the back of the recent trade agreement with the US last week and signal that rate hikes may resume later this year. The focus will also be on the BoJ's quarterly outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda's news conference. Market participants will look for fresh clues about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike, which will influence the near-term JPY price dynamics. Apart from this, investors this week will confront important US macro releases – the Advanced Q2 GDP print on Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.  In the meantime, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday that the number of job openings on the last business day of June stood at 7.43 million. This follows the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 7.71 million and came in below the market expectation of 7.55 million, pointing to a slowdown in the labor market. Separately, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from 95.2 the previous month, suggesting that consumers are feeling optimistic. This could translate into increased consumer spending and play a significant role in stimulating economic activity, which, in turn, contributed to the US Dollar's overnight strong follow-through rally to the highest level since June 23. USD/JPY needs to break below 147.75-147.70 support to back the case for deeper losses Any subsequent slide is likely to find decent support near the 147.75-147.70 area, below which the USD/JPY pair could test the 147.00 round figure before dropping to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the 146.70 region. The latter coincides with last week's swing low, which, if broken decisively, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and make spot prices vulnerable to retest sub-146.00 levels.  On the flip side, the 148.50 area, followed by the overnight swing high near the 148.80 region, now seems to act as immediate hurdles. This is followed by the 149.00-149.10 region, or the monthly top, and the very important 200-day SMA, around the 149.55 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bulls and pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

The AUD/JPY cross edges lower to near 96.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the softer-than-expected Australian inflation data.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the softer-than-expected Australian inflation data. Traders will take more cues from the Australian June Retail Sales report, which is due later on Thursday.Data released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday revealed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.7% QoQ in the second quarter (Q2), compared to a rise of 0.9% in Q1. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.8% in the reported period.Meanwhile, Australia’s CPI inflation eased to 2.1% YoY in Q2 from 2.4% in Q1 and was softer than the expectation of 2.2%. The monthly Consumer Price Index rose by 1.9% YoY in June versus 2.1% prior. The Aussie attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the softer inflation data. The Japanese Yen remains weak as political risks mount. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s defeat in the July 20 elections creates a headwind for the JPY and might cap the downside for the cross. Analysts believe that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resort to populist spending to shore up support for his weakened coalition. “While the election has passed, there are still some political risks with the potential for PM Ishiba to step down and for an LDP leadership election in September,” said Derek Halpenny, MUFG Bank’s head of global markets research.  Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, halting its four-day losing streak.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar rises as China plans to increase fiscal support aimed at boosting domestic consumption and countering economic challenges.Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose by 0.7% QoQ in Q2, compared to the expected rise of 0.8%.The US Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, halting its four-day losing streak. However, the AUD/USD pair maintains its position following the release of consumer inflation data from Australia. Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, against the 0.9% increase in Q1 and the expected growth of 0.8%. Annually, CPI inflation eased to 2.1% in Q2, compared to 2.4% prior and below the market consensus of 2.2%. The monthly Consumer Price Index rose by 1.9% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 2.1% increase. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q2 rose 0.6% and 2.7% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. Markets estimated an increase of 0.7% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the quarter to June. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Bessent tamped down any expectation of Trump rejecting the extension. It is important to note that any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD as China and Australia are close trade partners. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an said on Tuesday that the country will ramp up fiscal support to bolster domestic consumption and mitigate mounting economic headwinds. He emphasized that uncertainty around China’s development environment is growing and Beijing will adopt more proactive fiscal policies to help stabilise growth. Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar weakens ahead of Fed decision The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is halting its four-day winning streak and trading around 98.80 at the time of writing. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday, with no change in rates expected. Analysts expect the US Fed will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% in July. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The United States and European Union reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that sets 15% tariffs on most European goods, taking effect on August 1. This deal has ended a months-long stand-off, per Bloomberg. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said earlier that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of the Trump administration's tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting. The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes indicated that the board agreed further rate cuts were warranted over time, with attention centered on the timing and extent of easing. The majority believed it was best to await confirmation of an inflation slowdown before easing. Most members felt cutting rates three times in four meetings would not be "cautious and gradual.” Australian Dollar finds support at 50-day EMA near 0.6500 AUD/USD is trading around 0.6520 on Wednesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates a bullish bias is active as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, indicating a bullish outlook. Additionally, the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weaker. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6536. A break above this level could strengthen the short-term price momentum and support the pair to test the eight-month high at 0.6625, followed by the ascending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6700. The AUD/USD pair could find the primary support at the 50-day EMA of 0.6503, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6490. A break below this crucial support zone would weaken the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to approach the monthly low at 0.6454. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.17% -0.11% -0.22% -0.04% -0.10% -0.23% -0.22% EUR 0.17%   0.09% -0.12% 0.11% 0.03% -0.06% -0.01% GBP 0.11% -0.09%   -0.20% 0.07% -0.03% -0.12% -0.08% JPY 0.22% 0.12% 0.20%   0.26% 0.19% 0.06% 0.07% CAD 0.04% -0.11% -0.07% -0.26%   -0.06% -0.21% -0.16% AUD 0.10% -0.03% 0.03% -0.19% 0.06%   -0.09% -0.05% NZD 0.23% 0.06% 0.12% -0.06% 0.21% 0.09%   0.04% CHF 0.22% 0.00% 0.08% -0.07% 0.16% 0.05% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (QoQ) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: QuarterlyActual: 0.7%Consensus: 0.8%Previous: 0.9%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.8%) in 2Q: Actual (0.7%)

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in 2Q

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (0.7%) in 2Q

Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in 2Q

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1441 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1511.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1441 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1511. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.75 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI climbs to the highest levels in over a month amid growing concerns over global supply risks. 

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The WTI climbs to the highest levels in over a month amid growing concerns over global supply risks. US President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States (US) may impose additional tariffs on Russia if Moscow does not make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine within 10 days. Rising fears over tighter supplies due to additional sanctions on Russia boost the WTI price. “The new deadline caught many analysts by surprise and, if enforced, could tighten Russian crude and fuel supplies to the global market,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities.About the data, US crude oil inventories rose last week, which might cap the upside for the WTI’s price. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, compared to a decline of 577,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would fall by 2.5 million barrels. So far this year, crude oil inventories are up nearly 13 million barrels, according to Oilprice calculations of API data.Oil traders will keep an eye on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)  weekly crude oil stock report later on Wednesday. Also, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage. The US central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 47.8 in July from previous 46.3

China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an said on Tuesday that the country will ramp up fiscal support to bolster domestic consumption and mitigate mounting economic headwinds. 

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Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The NZD/USD pair extends its downside to around 0.5955 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) and China tariff truce continues to undermine the China-proxy Kiwi.

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Uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) and China tariff truce continues to undermine the China-proxy Kiwi. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday, with no change in rates expected. Analysts expect the US Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 97% odds of no change to interest rates at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed members remain cautious about the potential inflationary impact of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive new tariff policy. Traders will keep an eye on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference after the policy meeting. A more hawkish-than-expected outcome from the meeting could boost the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair. The attention will shift to the US employment data for July, which is due later on Friday. The US economy is projected to add 110K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to tick higher to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Bessent tamped down any expectation of Trump rejecting the extension. Trade optimism and a possible extension of the US-China trade truce could provide some support to the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the near term, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The EUR/USD resumed its downtrend for the second straight day as market participants digest softer-than-expected economic data from the United States (US).

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This and the trade agreement of the European Union (EU) and the US boosted the Dollar and weighed on the Euro, which posted a loss of more than 1.30% on Monday, the biggest since December 2024. The pair hovers around 1.1550, down 0.33% daily.Sentiment turned slightly negative on trade news, that the US and China trade talks have not finished, though both countries agreed to extend the trade truce, which needs to be authorized by US President Trump, revealed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.On the data front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June showed the labor market is cooling, as vacancies missed the mark by more than 200K, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Consumer Confidence for July improved, though the survey showed that people are struggling to find jobs.Across the pond, the lack of economic data keeps the Euro underperforming, following the US-EU trade deal. Traders await the release of Retail Sales data for Germany, growth figures for Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. Furthermore, traders await the release of HCOB Manufacturing PMIs for Spain, Italy, Germany, and the bloc, jobs data, and inflation figures in Germany and the EU.In the meantime, traders' focus is on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy release, set to conclude on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, though attention will be on possible dissenters, especially in light of recent remarks from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in favor of a 25-bps rate cut.Daily digest market movers: Dollar shrugs off weak jobs data, pushes Euro downJune JOLTS report showed job openings fell to 7.437 million, down from 7.769 million in May and below the consensus of 7.5 million, according to the BLS. The drop underscores increased business caution in hiring, driven by uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies.The data was released ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show a moderation in hiring, with forecasts pointing to 102K new jobs—down from June’s 147K gain.The Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence improved in July, with the index increasing to 97.2 from 93.0 in June, surpassing market expectations of 95.0.The Dollar prolonged its gains as portrayed by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.24% at 98.89.This week, further US economic data is awaited. The release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index for June, along with jobs and growth data, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, is expected to provide insight into the current state of the economy.The European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey for June showed that households expect inflation at 2.6%, down from 2.8% for 1-year, at 2.8% unchanged for 3-years, and 2.1% as the May print for a 5-year period.Regarding the ECB’s monetary policy, Deutsche Bank does not expect further cuts and hints that the next move would be a hike by the end of 2026.US President Trump said the US is going to impose a tariff on the rest of the world, and that's what they will have to pay, while he would love to see China open up its country. Furthermore, Trump said the world tariff would be somewhere between 15% and 20%.Technical outlook: EUR/USD downtrend intact, tumbles beneath 1.1600EUR/USD dropped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1574, after clearing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1678 and the 1.1600 figure, on Monday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, suggesting that further downside on the pair is seen.If EUR/USD tumbles below the 50-day SMA of 1.1550, traders would target 1.1500. If surpassed, the next stop would be 1.1400. Conversely, if the pair climbs above 1.1600, the 20-day SMA would be up for grabs at 1.1678. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Silver price post back-to-back doji candles, near the $38.00 figure, as the grey metal market consolidates ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.

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The XAG/USD trades at 38.18, virtually unchanged.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver found a bottom near $38.00, slightly above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a strong demand area near $37.88. Momentum shows that neither buyers nor sellers are rocking the boat, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), staying bullish but flat. However, the latter were the ones that drove XAG/USD from around yearly highs of $39.52 toward the current spot price.If XAG/USD climbs back above $38.50, $39.00 would be the next area of interest. Overhead lies the YTD high at $39.52. On the other hand, a drop below $38.00 exposes the 20-day SMA at $37.88, followed by the June 18 peak at $37.31, before challenging $37.00.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

GBP/USD found some balance on Tuesday, pumping the brakes on an extended backslide but falling just short of snapping its losing streak.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3770 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later in the day as traders brace for the imminent interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). 

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Markets might turn cautious later in the day as traders brace for the imminent interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Bloomberg reported late Tuesday that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before the deadline in two weeks, and that US President Donald Trump will make the final decision on any extension. Trade negotiations with China have been less certain and this might undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).The Fed is widely anticipated to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, the same as it has been since December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in nearly a 97% possibility of no change to interest rates at the July meeting. Traders await the FOMC's policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference afterward, as they might offer some hints about the interest rate outlook in the coming months. The cautious stance from the Fed officials amid the tariff uncertainty might help limit the Greenback’s losses in the near term.On the Loonie’s front, economists expect the BoC to keep the policy rate at 2.75% at the July meeting later on Wednesday, a third consecutive pause. The Canadian central bank said its decisions would be “less forward looking” due to several “layers of uncertainty” surrounding the trade war. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Gold price recovered some ground on Tuesday after falling for the fourth straight day as the Greenback trimmed some of its earlier gains, which boosted appetite for the yellow metal.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}XAU/USD recovers on soft labor data and easing Dollar after a four-day slide.JOLTS job openings fell to 7.437M, stoking hiring concerns amid tariff uncertainties.Treasury yields retreat, helping gold bounce off a three-week low near $3,300.The Fed is expected to hold rates on Wednesday; focus on possible dissent and inflation outlook.Gold price recovered some ground on Tuesday after falling for the fourth straight day as the Greenback trimmed some of its earlier gains, which boosted appetite for the yellow metal. A drop in US Treasury yields and a soft labor market report in the United States (US) prompted investors to buy Bullion.The XAU/USD trades at $3,330, up by 0.50% after reaching a three-week low of $3,301 on Monday and a daily low of $3,308.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June missed estimates as companies seemed reluctant to hire, spurred by tariff uncertainty. Nevertheless, trade news improved the tone as Beijing and Washington are going to continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks, according to Bloomberg, as revealed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.Other data showed that Consumer Confidence improved in July, according to the Conference Board (CB), though some comments from the survey showed households are struggling to find jobs.In the meantime, traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, which would end on Wednesday, with the central bank expected to hold rates unchanged. Worth noting, if there are dissenters on the decision, following the latest remarks from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.After this, the US economic docket would be packed, with the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, jobs data, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Daily digest market movers: Gold rallies in tandem with the Dollar as US yields tumbleThe June JOLTS report revealed that job openings dropped to 7.437 million, down from 7.769 million in May and below expectations of 7.5 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline reflects growing business hesitancy to hire amid uncertainty over future tariff levels. The data arrives just before the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting and the release of July’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job creation to 102,000 from June’s 147,000.Separately, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence rose in July, with the index climbing to 97.2 from 93.0 in June, topping estimates of 95.0.The Dollar prolonged its gains as portrayed by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.25% at 98.91.US Treasury yields are down on Tuesday, providing a tailwind for Gold prices. The US 10-year T-note yield drops nine bps to 4.183%. US real yields are also falling nine basis points to 1.884%.Last week's US economic data, particularly employment, reaffirmed the Fed’s stance to keep the fed fund rate unchanged. This is because inflation metrics had not resumed their downward trend towards the US central bank 2% goal.A Reuters poll revealed that market participants expect the Gold price to average $3,320 a troy ounce in 2025, and $3,400 for 2026.The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 meeting.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold bounces back above $3,300, below the confluence of 20-, 50-day SMAsGold price shows signs of recovery, after a string of four days of losses, which dragged XAU from around $3,438 to $3,301. Momentum shows that sellers are taking a breather, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Still, further downside is seen as the RSI turned bearish, and XAU/USD is still below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,336.If the 50-day SMA is cleared, look for a test of the 20-day SMA at $3,345, $3,350, and the $3,400 mark. Otherwise, if XAU/USD extends its losses below $3,300, the next support would be the confluence of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the June 30 low, around $3,242-3,246, respectively. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Ireland Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 62.5 to 59.1 in July

Australia will release inflation updates on Wednesday, two weeks ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting, scheduled for August 11-12.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian monthly Consumer Price Index is foreseen stable at 2.1%.Quarterly CPI inflation is expected to have modestly decreased in Q2.The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the OCR at 3.85% at its May meeting.The Australian Dollar is set to post lower lows vs its American rival.Australia will release inflation updates on Wednesday, two weeks ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting, scheduled for August 11-12. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish two different inflation gauges: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter of 2025 and the June Monthly CPI, which measures annual price pressures over the past 12 months. The quarterly report includes the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, policymakers’ favorite inflation gauge. The RBA’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) stands at 3.85% after policymakers delivered two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts throughout the first half of the year. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades at around the 0.6500 mark against its American rival. What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?The ABS is expected to report that the monthly CPI rose by 2.1% in the year to June, matching the May reading. The quarterly CPI is foreseen to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, the central bank’s preferred gauge, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, is expected to rise by 2.7% YoY in the same quarter, easing from the 2.9% advance posted in Q1.Finally, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is forecast to increase by 0.7% QoQ, matching its previous quarterly reading. As it happened in Q1, the figures will fall within the RBA’s goal to keep inflation between 2 and 3%, which means the central bank could deliver additional interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future. The RBA’s statement on monetary policy released after the July meeting shows officials remained concerned about the global trade conflict launched by the United States (US). While they consider the worst of it will likely be avoided, it is still a source of uncertainty. Additionally, most officials “believed that lowering the cash rate a third time within the space of four meetings would be unlikely to be consistent with the strategy of easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner to achieve the Board’s inflation and full employment objectives. While the flow of recent data had been broadly in line with earlier forecasts, they judged that some data had been slightly stronger than expected.”However, “A minority of members judged that there was a case to lower the cash rate target at this meeting. These members placed more weight on downside risks to the economic outlook – stemming from a likely slowing in growth abroad and from the subdued pace of GDP growth in Australia.”Such concerns are real, considering the ABS reported that the Australian economy expanded by 0.2% in the three months to March 2025, down from the 0.6% posted in the final quarter of 2024 and missing the expected 0.4%. On a positive note, annualised growth held at 1.3%, although missing estimates of a 1.5% gain. At the same time, labor costs are a source of concern. According to the latest information available, wage inflation rose by 3.4% in the year to March, and by 0.9% in the first quarter of the year. Tepid growth combined with upside risks to inflation amid labor costs growing at a faster rate than the RBA’s inflation target leaves policymakers between a rock and a hard place. While further interest rate cuts before year-end remain on the table, the most likely scenario will be another on-hold decision in August. Meanwhile, concerns about the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade war continue to ease. The US announced deals with Japan and the European Union in the last few days, while progressing in talks with China. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) surged across the FX board, leading to the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6500, its lowest in two weeks. How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?The anticipated inflation readings would have no actual impact on the upcoming RBA decision, while easing price pressures should support officials’ wait-and-see stance. However, higher-than-anticipated inflationary pressures could prompt policymakers to make an earlier interest rate cut.As previously said, the AUD/USD pair struggles at around 0.6500 ahead of the announcement, under pressure amid broad USD strength coming from trade-deal announcements.Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The AUD/USD pair keeps posting lower lows and lower highs on a daily basis, in line with a continued decline. Speculation that the RBA may go for additional interest rate cuts should weigh on the Aussie, and push the pair towards the 0.6450 region, where it bottomed in July. Additional downward strength could result in AUD/USD falling towards the 0.6390 price zone.”Bednarik adds: “The AUD/USD pair could surge should inflation results in line or lower than anticipated, yet with persistent USD demand, the uptick could be short-lived. The daily 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides dynamic resistance at around 0.6545, while further gains expose the July peak at 0.6625.” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative. Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.1% Previous: 2.1% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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