Forex News Timeline

14:40 JPY soft but holding on to recent gains – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but holding on to recent gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but holding on to recent gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets eye supportive Fed/BoJ"The outlook for relative central bank policy remains supportive for the JPY, narrowing interest rate differentials in a manner that largely reflects repricing of the Fed rather than any developments at the BoJ. Messaging from the BoJ has been mixed, and hawkishness has been tempered on the back of trade policy uncertainty." "Comments from BoJ board member Takata have leaned toward a ‘temporary’ pause and a resumption of rate hikes later this year. The next BoJ policy decision is on July 31, and markets are pricing a hold. Pricing for year-end has slipped somewhat, with 13bpts of tightening vs. 20bpts one month ago." "For USD/JPY, technicals are neutral, reflecting the flat consolidation range that has been observed over the past couple of months with support in the mid-142s and resistance around 148."

14:37 GBP up modestly, recovering a portion of Wednesday losses – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up modestly, entering Thursday’s NA session with a 0.2% gain as it recovers a portion of Wednesday’s politically-driven losses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is up modestly, entering Thursday’s NA session with a 0.2% gain as it recovers a portion of Wednesday’s politically-driven losses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. GBP up modestly on relief over Reeves."The UK’s final services PMI came in slightly better than expected at 52.8 (vs. 51.3 exp. & prev.). Uncertainty around the future of Chancellor Reeves created a panic on Wednesday, as market participants expressed concerns about the UK’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and investors sold gilts in a manner the recalled the panic of 2022." "The situation appears to have settled – for now – and markets are breathing a sigh of relief at the government’s renewed commitment to Reeves. Shor-term yield spreads have remained steady, as Wednesday’s turmoil largely impacted yields at the back end of the curve. Rate expectations have also remained steady, with markets pricing about 22bpts (~90%) of easing at the next BoE decision on August 7." "The multi-month trend remains bullish but the momentum signals are hinting to exhaustion and an overall moderation in the trend as the RSI has failed to confirm the latest highs in spot (negative divergence). We continue to highlight the importance of the 50 day MA as a critical source of medium-term support, and see near-term support closer to the 1.3600/1.3620 area. Recent gains have struggled above resistance in the mid/upper 1.37s."

14:35 CAD holds gains through upper 1.35s – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) pushed smartly higher through late morning trade yesterday to retest Friday’s high versus the USD near 1.3590.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) pushed smartly higher through late morning trade yesterday to retest Friday’s high versus the USD near 1.3590. Fractionally more progress was made overnight before the CAD slipped off its peak to trade more or less unchanged on the day, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Risk mood, spreads, commodities help CAD"There were no major developments behind yesterday’s CAD gains. Rather, positive risk appetite, some narrowing in US/Canada spreads and firmer commodities (metals) lent the CAD a modest bid and are driving the CAD’s fair value estimate (1.3503) back to the lowest since late September." 'Factors behind the equilibrium estimate have been steadily tracking more positively for the CAD since the end of May, supporting our outlook for further, moderate (at least) gains in the CAD and limiting the upside potential in the USD for now. Canada releases May Trade data at 8.30ET. USD/CAD retains a negative undertone on the charts." "But the snap higher from the mid-June low at 1.3540 continues to represent a bit of a blot on the otherwise positive, technical landscape for the CAD and last Friday’s brief snap higher in the USD interrupted what was a promising developing move for the CAD. The broader technical tone for USD/CAD remains bearish, with trend strength indicators aligned negatively for the USD across a range of timeframes. That should limit scope for USD rebounds to the 1.37 area and continue to pressure spot lower. A push under the mid 1.35 area frees up spot for a return to the low 1.34s."

14:32 USD little changed versus core majors ahead of NFP – Scotiabank
Markets are not quite at a standstill but they are not far off. The US Dollar (USD) is mixed against its major currency peers but movement is minimal among the core majors, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Markets are not quite at a standstill but they are not far off. The US Dollar (USD) is mixed against its major currency peers but movement is minimal among the core majors, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. DXY price action has slipped into a short-term consolidation"Pound Sterling (GBP) is a minor outperformer, gilts more so, as yesterday’s local volatility is quelled. Stocks are narrowly mixed and Treasurys are very modestly firmer. There will be a burst of activity around this morning’s US data reports (jobs, trade, weekly claims, ISM, Factory Orders etc.) before things settle, at least in the short run, ahead of the July 4th US holiday. The outcome of the payrolls report may help set the tone for the USD beyond the next day or so, however." "Solid data will further temper still very limited risk (about 20%, according to swaps pricing) of a July Fed rate cut. Weak data, on the other hand, will likely turn White House criticism of Fed policymaking up to 11 and pressure the USD further. Note yesterday’s call from the head of the FHFA for Congress to investigate Chair Powell for 'malfeasance'. ADP data has been a poor guide for month-to-month NFP but it’s not irrelevant. Trends in private sector hiring are not particularly dynamic, even in NFP data terms, and there are concerns that smaller businesses that are unable to absorb tariffs have been cutting back on hiring." "Scotia forecasts a 160k gain in jobs, however (the high of the forecast range) against the economists’ consensus call for a 110k rise and a tenth gain in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, a marginal new cycle high after holding at of below 4.2% over the past year. The market feels that risks are geared towards a modest downside miss for the NFP print, if the Bloomberg, whisper number (96k) is any guide. The broader dollar mood appears to be shifting a little after the six successive months of decline seen through H1. Some consolidation is possible but we do not anticipate any major recovery at this point. DXY price action has slipped into a short-term consolidation pattern but it is one (a bear flag) that hints at weakness resuming shortly. DXY resistance remains 97.50 and key support 96.50."

14:27 USD little changed versus core majors ahead of NFP – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) as it continues to consolidate just below Monday’s fresh multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) as it continues to consolidate just below Monday’s fresh multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Near-term risks lean neutral"The euro area’s final services PMI offered a modest surprise, printing 50.5 (vs. 50 exp. & prev.). Germany and France also delivered modest surprises but printed readings just below 50, implying modest contraction in the services sector." "Comments from the ECB have continued to lean neutral and comments around the EUR have highlighted the disinflationary impact of currency strength. Markets are pricing a hold at the next ECB meeting on July 24." "The bull trend is intact but the near-term risks lean neutral as the momentum indicators peak around overbought levels. Longer-term resistance is limited ahead of 1.19 and the mid 1.22s."

14:25 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades firmly near weekly high around $3,360 with US NFP in focus
Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto gains near the weekly high around $3,365 during the European trading session on Thursday. The yellow metal trades firmly ahead of the United States (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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The yellow metal trades firmly ahead of the United States (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data as a few Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have expressed concerns regarding the labor market strength. Also, market experts believe that US business owners are reluctant for fresh hiring amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy imposed by President Donald Trump after his return to the White House.The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 110K fresh workers, significantly lower than fewer than 139K in May. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.3% from the prior reading of 4.2%.Market participants are anticipating weak set of NFP numbers, following the ADP Employment Change data released on Wednesday, which showed that the private sector laid-off 33K employees in June, while they were expected to hire 95K fresh workers. Additionally, the May reading was also revised lower to 29K from 37K.Soft US NFP data would prompt market expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates in the policy meeting later this month. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting clarity on trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners as the tariff deadline is approaching, which is July 9.Gold technical analysisGold price trades near the upward-sloping trendline of an Ascending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which is placed from the April 7 low of $2,957. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500. Theoretically, a breakdown of the asset below the upward-sloping trendline results in a sharp downfall.The precious metal trades wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,342, suggesting that the near-term trend is uncertain.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Looking up, the Gold price would enter in an unchartered territory after breaking above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.Alternatively, a downside move by the Gold price below the May 29 low of $3,245 would drag it towards the round-level support of $3,200, followed by the May 15 low at $3,121.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:20 OIL Price Forecast: WTI approaches the range top at the $67.00 area
WTI Crude Prices jumped on Wednesday following news that Iran suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and is holding gains on Thursday, despite the unexpected increase in US Oil stocks.Tehran announced on Web¡nesday that President Masoud Pezeshian approved a law

14:00 EUR/USD trade may be stretched between 1.2200 and 1.2800 – BBH
EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1800. ECB publishes the Account of its June 5 policy meeting (12:30pm London), BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1800. ECB publishes the Account of its June 5 policy meeting (12:30pm London), BBH FX analysts report. ECB is concerned about the pace of EUR appreciation"At that meeting, the ECB reduced the policy rate 25bps to 2.00%, as was widely expected. Only one Governing Council member didn’t support the decision to cut. Importantly, President Christine Lagarde’s stressed the ECB is likely 'getting to the end of the monetary-policy cycle.' Indeed, the swaps market implies just one 25bps rate cut over the next 12 months and the policy rate to bottom at 1.75%.""The Account may offer insights into the discussion around the euro’s appreciation. A couple of ECB policymakers are becoming wary of the EUR/USD rally. On Tuesday, Vice President Luis De Guindos cautioned that EUR/USD gains beyond 1.2000 'would be much more complicated' while Governing Council member Martins Kazaks warned that further EUR appreciation could tilt the balance toward another cut. We believe the ECB is more concerned about the pace of appreciation than about the level.""EUR/USD is overvalued and trading above our long-term equilibrium estimate of around 1.1100. However, EUR/USD has room to overshoot as the euro can play a greater role in foreign central bank reserves. Historically, 10% to 15% overshoot of equilibrium is not unusual, which would suggest EUR/USD could be stretched between 1.2200 and 1.2800."

13:50 USD/CNH: Any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge lower against Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge lower against Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500. In the longer run, downward momentum has increased further; if USD breaks below 7.1450, the next level to monitor is 7.1300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum has increased further24-HOUR VIEW: "We pointed out yesterday that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 7.1530 and 7.1730.' USD then traded in a tight range of 7.1607/7.1698, closing largely unchanged at 7.1623 (+0.02%). Despite the quiet price action, downward momentum appears to be increasing. Today, we expect USD to edge lower, but given the current mild downward pressure, any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500. On the upside, resistance levels are at 7.1655 and 7.1720." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 7.1570) that 'downward momentum has increased further, and if USD breaks below 7.1450, the next level to monitor is at 7.1300.' Although USD traded in a quiet manner over the past couple of days, we will hold on to our view as long as 7.1790 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) remains intact."

13:45 GBP: The damage is done – Commerzbank
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, who is committed to budgetary discipline, suddenly found herself alone when Prime Minister Keir Starmer unexpectedly withdrew his support for her in Parliament, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, who is committed to budgetary discipline, suddenly found herself alone when Prime Minister Keir Starmer unexpectedly withdrew his support for her in Parliament, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Keir Starmer's unexpected withdrawal damages the GBP"What had happened? The Prime Minister abandoned highly controversial welfare reform plans that would have meant cuts in some special expenditures, leaving Reeves suddenly having to cope with additional spending in her budget. In principle, she must quickly find £5 billion to meet the budget targets that have been set. At the same time, the Prime Minister appeared to be verbally distancing himself from her as finance minister.""The market reacted with shock and punished the pound, sending 10-year interest rates skyrocketing. The pound has already gone through a similar crisis once before, caused by concerns about lax fiscal policy in the UK.""Although Starmer repeatedly emphasized afterwards that he fully backed his finance minister, the damage has been done. The market can no longer be sure that budgetary discipline will really be maintained in the UK. It is irrelevant whether Reeves can continue, or whether and, if so, who Stamer will choose as her successor - the damage to the pound and long-term interest rates has been done."

13:39 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 143.00 and 144.10 – UOB Group
Further US Dollar (USD) consolidation would not be surprising against Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 143.00 and 144.10. In the longer run, further declines are not ruled out, but USD may consolidate for a couple of days first, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further US Dollar (USD) consolidation would not be surprising against Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 143.00 and 144.10. In the longer run, further declines are not ruled out, but USD may consolidate for a couple of days first, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further declines are not ruled out24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped to a low of 142.66 two days ago and then rebounded. Yesterday, when USD was at 143.50, we pointed out that 'the rebound in oversold conditions indicates that, instead of weakening, USD is more likely to consolidate in a range of 142.90/144.30 today.' USD subsequently traded between 143.31 and 144.24. Further consolidation would not be surprising, most likely between 143.00 and 144.10. Looking ahead, should USD break clearly below 143.00, it could trigger a deeper decline." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our USD view to negative two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 143.80), indicating that 'downward momentum is beginning to build, and a break of 143.50 could trigger further declines toward 142.70.' USD then dropped to a low of 142.66 before rebounding. Yesterday (02 Jul, spot at 143.50), we stated that 'while further declines are not ruled out, USD may consolidate for a couple of days first before heading lower.' We will maintain the same view as long as 144.60 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 144.85) is not breached."

13:31 USD: The next US ‘deal’ – Commerzbank
Yesterday, the US government presented another ‘deal,’ the third following agreements with the UK and China, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Yesterday, the US government presented another ‘deal,’ the third following agreements with the UK and China, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Import tariffs are likely to do more harm than good"An import tariff of 20% has been agreed with the Vietnamese government, which is a reduction on the originally announced reciprocal tariff of 46%. Tariffs of 40% will be levied on goods transshipped through Vietnam. This is probably intended to prevent China from diverting its exports. In return, the Vietnamese government is completely abolishing import duties on US products. At first glance, this looks like a victory for the US government – at least if one assumes that the idea of making imports less attractive by means of tariffs makes economic sense.""I have my doubts about that. In addition to numerous consumer goods, Vietnam exports coffee to the US, among other things. It is already questionable whether and how quickly the US can ramp up production of textiles, for example, which are imported from Vietnam. When it comes to coffee, that's where it ends, as the necessary climatic conditions simply do not exist (apart from in Hawaii)." "Therefore, the conclusion remains the same: import tariffs, even if they are no longer absurdly high, are likely to do more harm than good. Especially since the Vietnamese economy is hardly large enough and does not have the necessary purchasing power to significantly increase its imports from the US. And so it is not surprising that the dollar was unable to benefit from yesterday's news of the deal."

13:28 EUR/GBP pulls back to 0.8625 with the Pound trimming losses after Wednesday’s sell-off
The Euro is trading lower against the British Pound on Thursday, retreating from the 3 ½ month highs at 0.8670 hit on Wednesday as the uncertainty about Chancellor Rachel Reeves revived concerns about the UK’s fiscal health.UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, was forced to show the Government’s support

13:23 NZD/USD: Expected to trade in a range between 0.6065 and 0.611 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.6065 and 0.6115 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has largely faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6035 and 0.6130, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.6065 and 0.6115 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has largely faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6035 and 0.6130, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has largely faded24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD rose to 0.6120 two days ago and then pulled back. Yesterday, when NZD was at 0.6100, we highlighted the following: 'Conditions remain overbought. This, combined with slowing momentum, suggests NZD is likely to trade in a range today, most likely between 0.6075 and 0.6120.' We did not expect NZD to drop to a low of 0.6051. NZD rebounded from the low to close slightly lower at 0.6089 (-0.15%). The decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum. Today, we continue to expect NZD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.6065 and 0.6115." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After NZD reached our previous technical target of 0.6120, we indicated yesterday (02 Jul, spot at 0.6100) that 'while NZD may continue to rise, it must break and hold above 0.6120 before a move to 0.6145 can be expected.' We added, 'should NZD break below 0.6055 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that the NZD strength from late last week has run its course.' NZD subsequently fell to a low of 0.6051. While our ‘strong support’ level was only slightly breached, upward momentum has largely faded. For the time being, it is too early to expect a sizeable pullback. From here, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6035 and 0.6130."

13:20 Could the ECB prevent a rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate? – Commerzbank
In recent days, several members of the ECB Governing Council have expressed concern about the strength of the Euro (EUR). This marks a new tone from the central bankers.

In recent days, several members of the ECB Governing Council have expressed concern about the strength of the Euro (EUR). This marks a new tone from the central bankers. After all, not so long ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde was almost delighted with the development of the single currency which reflected increasing confidence in the euro economy, etc. But currently, the currency watchers are not so happy about the euro's appreciation after all. ECB Vice-President De Guindos even mentioned a specific exchange rate level: a EUR/USD rate above the 1.20 mark would be ‘problematic’, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. ECB can't prevent EUR to rise above 1.20 "Of course, the ECB does not pursue a specific exchange rate target, as this would violate the G20 agreement on exchange rate policy. What De Guindos means by this is not the level itself, but the speed at which the exchange rate reaches this level. It is primarily rapid and pronounced exchange rate movements that can impair companies' planning security and therefore become relevant to the real economy. So far, the trade-weighted euro exchange rate has appreciated by over 7% since its low in February. That is indeed a significant movement in such a short period of time. In its latest projections, the ECB expects only a slightly higher average value for its preferred measure. If the appreciation trend continues, it would have to adjust its forecasts, i.e. assume more subdued inflation, among other things. This, in turn, would open up scope for a more expansionary monetary policy.""De Guindos has drawn a fairly clear line in the sand by referring to the 1.20 mark. The problem with limits is that they tend to be tested. So if EUR/USD were to break through this mark soon, the market would be eagerly awaiting the ECB's response. If it remains inactive, the euro could appreciate even more strongly. If it lowers its interest rates in response (foreign exchange market interventions are ruled out in view of the G20 agreement), this could initially slow down the appreciation, but it is unlikely to cause a significant depreciation against the US dollar. After all, everyone knows that it cannot lower the key interest rate indefinitely.""The main problem, however, is that the rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate is not due to a discrepancy in monetary policy between the US and the eurozone, but primarily to US policies that are damaging to the US dollar. How far the EUR/USD exchange rate will rise depends largely on what certain people in the White House come up with. Unfortunately, Lagarde and her colleagues have no influence over this. I therefore doubt that they will be able to prevent a rise above 1.20 – at least if it is driven by USD weakness."

13:08 USD/JPY trades cautiously positive around 144.00 ahead of key US data
The USD/JPY pair edges higher to near 143.90 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair trades cautiously higher as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

12:56 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a range of 0.6550/0.6595 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6550/0.6595 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, should AUD break clearly above 0.6595, it could trigger a further rise toward 0.6620, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6550/0.6595 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, should AUD break clearly above 0.6595, it could trigger a further rise toward 0.6620, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 0.6595, AUD may rise toward 0.662024-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to test 0.6595 two days ago. After AUD rose to a high of 0.6590, we indicated yesterday that it 'may still test 0.6595, but given the slowing momentum, a sustained rise above this level is unlikely.' Our expectations did not materialise, as AUD traded in a range of 0.6544/0.6588, closing largely unchanged at 0.6585 (+0.05%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a range, albeit a higher one of 0.6550/0.6595." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 0.6575), we highlighted that 'should AUD break clearly above 0.6595, it could trigger a further rise toward 0.6620.' Since then, AUD has traded just below the 0.6595 level, and we continue to hold the same view. On the downside, a breach of 0.6530 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) will invalidate the scenario of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6595."

12:53 DXY: Eyes on payrolls, ISM services – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) traded mixed overnight, with losses seen vs. TWD, THB and precious metals but traded largely firmer against most currencies including GBP, AUD, NZD and MYR. DXY was last at 96.83 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) traded mixed overnight, with losses seen vs. TWD, THB and precious metals but traded largely firmer against most currencies including GBP, AUD, NZD and MYR. DXY was last at 96.83 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD to trade weaker"Chatters of markets adjusting their positions ahead of US payrolls data tonight and the long weekend (US markets closed for Independence Day holiday on Fri). The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) was returned to the House of Representatives, where it is being met with objections from certain GOP members, and Trump still intends to get it signed by 4 July. Overnight, Trump called for Fed chair Powell to ‘resign immediately’.""The big focus in the near term is US payrolls report tonight (830pm SGT). Consensus is looking for NFP to slow to 106k (vs. 139k prior), unemployment rate to pick up to 4.3% (vs. 4.2% prior) and hourly earnings to slow slightly to 0.3% m/m (vs. 0.4% prior). A softer print may weigh on USD, but an upside surprise print may see USD bounce ahead of 9th July trade truce deadline. Elsewhere, we also monitor initial jobless claims, ISM services data. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI shows tentative signs of turning around from near oversold conditions. "Support at 96.40, 96.10 levels. Resistance at 97.50/60 levels, 98.10 (21 DMA). Technically, we caution that the decline in the USD may see a slower speed or even pause in the interim. But more broadly over the medium term, we continue to expect USD to trade weaker as USD diversification/ re-allocation trend takes centre-stage while Fed cut cycle potentially comes into focus in 2H 2025. US policy unpredictability, and concerns of about the rising trajectory of debt and deficits in the medium term should continue to undermine sentiments and confidence in the USD."

12:40 GBP/USD: Likely to trade between 1.3585 and 1.3705 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.3585 and 1.3705. In the longer run, week-long positive outlook has been negated; for a continued down-move, GBP must first close below 1.3560, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.3585 and 1.3705. In the longer run, week-long positive outlook has been negated; for a continued down-move, GBP must first close below 1.3560, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Week-long positive outlook has been negated24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP rose to a multi-year high of 1.3787 two days ago and then pulled back to close largely unchanged at 1.3742 (+0.09%). Yesterday, we noted that 'momentum indicators are turning flat.' We expected GBP to 'consolidate in a range between 1.3700 and 1.3780.' Instead of consolidating, GBP plummeted to a low of 1.3563 before rebounding to close at 1.3635 (-0.78%). The sharp decline appears excessive. This, combined with the rebound from oversold conditions suggests that GBP is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.3585 and 1.3705." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a positive outlook on GBP for about a week, we highlighted yesterday (02 Jul, spot at 1.3745) that 'there are early signs that upward momentum is beginning to slow.' We also highlighted that GBP 'must break and hold above 1.3800 soon, or the probability of further GBP strength will diminish rapidly.' While our early signals were timely, we did not expect the sharp selloff in GBP that reached a low of 1.3563. The breach of our ‘strong support’ at 1.3670 has negated the positive outlook. Short-term downward momentum is increasing, but it is not strong enough to indicate a sustained decline just yet. For a continued down-move, GBP must first close below 1.3560. The likelihood of GBP closing below 1.3560 will remain in place as long as the ‘strong resistance’ level, now at 1.3750, is not breached."

12:38 USD/CHF upside attempts remain limited below 0.7945 ahead of the US NFP report
The US Dollar is trading with marginal gains for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but it seems unable to put any significant distance from the 14-year lows hit earlier this week, with price action limited below 0.7945.Earlier on Thursday, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index data revealed an un

12:31 USD: Too early to say we've reached 'peak bearishness' on the USD – ING
While forecasters are overwhelmingly bearish on the dollar now – and some are bearish on a multi-quarter basis too – one possible shoe still to drop is the possibility of early Fed rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

While forecasters are overwhelmingly bearish on the dollar now – and some are bearish on a multi-quarter basis too – one possible shoe still to drop is the possibility of early Fed rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. DXY to continue finding support in the 96.35/50 area"Today's US jobs data will have a major say in that story. Chair Powell, leading the camp for the Fed to keep rates on hold, argues that sticky inflation and a solid labour market mean that the policy rate should be kept mildly restrictive at 4.25-4.50% for the time being. Clearly, any downside surprise in the jobs report would weaken his position and allow the market to push on with pricing a rate cut at the July meeting. Currently, the market attaches a 26% probability to that outcome.""In terms of the jobs report, consensus expects a +106k number. The Bloomberg 'Whisper' number is now at +97k and has been edging lower, especially after yesterday's ADP private sector payrolls release saw the first decline in payrolls since March 2023. On the unemployment rate, jobs growth failing to keep pace with the labour force expansion is expected to see the unemployment rate nudge up to 4.3% from 4.2% – still very low. For reference, USD/JPY quickly fell 0.5% intra-day on the negative ADP release.""Barring a negative NFP release today or a big rise in the unemployment rate, we'd expect the dollar to continue consolidating ahead of tomorrow's 4 July US public holiday. The dollar does face further threats next week, however, when the 9 July deadline for trade deals passes and President Trump could start threatening 50% tariffs again for recalcitrant trading partners. Expect DXY to continue finding support in the 96.35/50 area, and we slightly favour consolidation over a long weekend. Any big miss in NFP could trigger sub-96 levels, however."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:09 AUD/JPY treads water above 94.50 due to signs of BoJ delaying rate hikes
AUD/JPY holds its positions for the second successive session, trading around 94.60 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross gains ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges, driven by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopting caution on interest rate hikes.

12:00 EUR/GBP eyes 0.8735 after breakout – Société Générale
EUR/GBP is extending its uptrend after defending the 200-DMA in May and breaking above recent consolidation, with momentum indicators pointing higher. The pair eyes the April high at 0.8735 and projections near 0.8780, while support rests at 0.8585/0.8575, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/GBP is extending its uptrend after defending the 200-DMA in May and breaking above recent consolidation, with momentum indicators pointing higher. The pair eyes the April high at 0.8735 and projections near 0.8780, while support rests at 0.8585/0.8575, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Steady uptrend points to 0.8780 next"EUR/GBP successfully defended the 200-DMA in May and has experienced a steady uptrend after this test. It has overcome the upper limit of recent brief consolidation at 0.8575 highlighting regaining upward momentum." "This is also denoted by the daily MACD which remains anchored within positive territory. Next objectives could be located at April high of 0.8735 and projections near 0.8780. Last month peak of 0.8585/0.8575 is a short-term support."

11:56 Central bank Gold buying recovers in May – ING
Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of Gold to global Gold reserves in May, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of Gold to global Gold reserves in May, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Central Banks buy more Gold "This is 66.7% higher than the previous month, but below the 12-month average of 27 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Kazakhstan remained the leading buyer in May. It bought 7 tonnes, taking its net purchases so far this year to more than 14 tonnes." "This was followed by the National Bank of Poland and the Central Bank of Turkey with net purchases of 6 tonnes each, taking total net purchases to 67 tonnes and 15 tonnes, respectively, in the first five months of the year."

11:54 GBP: Political noise takes its toll – ING
There was a surprisingly large sell-off in sterling yesterday after markets bought into the view that the fiscally responsible Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, could be forced to resign.

There was a surprisingly large sell-off in sterling yesterday after markets bought into the view that the fiscally responsible Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, could be forced to resign. In retrospect, perhaps PM Keir Starmer merely misjudged the mood of the House of Commons (and the markets) by not backing her straight away (he has now), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/GBP to trade in the 0.8600-0.8650 range for now"Clearly, the UK has some significant fiscal challenges which will come to the fore ahead of November's budget. Before then, however, and assuming there is no surprise exit from Reeves, the focus will be on upcoming Labour government policy." "Were the government to cave into the left wing of the party again and remove the two-child benefit cap, investors would rightly think that power had ebbed away from the Starmer-Reeves axis, and gilts would be under more pressure.""For today, Pound Sterling (GBP) is recovering a little and will take its cue from gilts. Any further suggestions from the Bank of England that it could slow its £100bn per year quantitative tightening/gilt sales programme – the decision to be taken in September – could help gilts and sterling. EUR/GBP could sink into a 0.8600-0.8650 range as it awaits further developments."

11:43 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 3.208% to 3.163%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 3.208% to 3.163%

11:43 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.118% to 2.159%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.118% to 2.159%

11:42 GBP/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC
Pound Sterling (GBP) fell, alongside Gilts on signs of division within Labour party. GBP was last at 1.3671 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) fell, alongside Gilts on signs of division within Labour party. GBP was last at 1.3671 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks remain somewhat skewed to the downside"A total of 49 rebel Labour MPs voted against the second reading of the Welfare Reform Bill – basically to scrap the cuts to welfare spending. To avoid defeat of the bill, PM Starmer was forced to do a U-turn, saying it would not change personal independence payment (Pip) rules until it had time to consider the review's conclusions." "This puts pressure on Chancellor Reeves' spending plans, as potential savings of around £5bn will now be delayed or lost entirely. There was also rumour that Reeves may lose her job as Chancellor though PM Starmer later told BBC that Reeves would remain in the job for 'a very long time to come'." "Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks remain somewhat skewed to the downside though we noted that a large part of the corrective move has taken place (in line with our caution from FX Weekly). Next support at 1.3580 (21 DMA), 1.3470 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3690, 1.3750 levels."

11:40 OPEC+ expected to go with another large supply hike – ING
Oil prices moved higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of a 3% gain on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil prices moved higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of a 3% gain on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC+ to decide on August production levels this weekend"Trade optimism is providing a boost to the market, following the Trump administration's announcement that it reached a trade deal with Vietnam. However, this optimism may be short-lived, with OPEC+ deciding on August production levels this weekend. The expectation is that the group will go with another large supply increase of 411k b/d. Given the uncertainty, market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long US weekend.""Furthermore, next week marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. We could see tariff increases reinstated on some US trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week.""The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.85m barrels over the last week, the first weekly increase since mid-May. The build was driven by a large decline in US crude oil exports, which fell by 1.97m b/d week on week. Meanwhile, crude oil imports increased by 975k b/d WoW. For refined products, gasoline inventories increased by 4.19m barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.71m barrels."

11:39 AUD/USD holds gains above 0.6560, the dollar eases ahead of the NFP report
The Australian Dollar remains consolidating gains near the year-to-date highs at 0.6590.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Aussie Dollar remains close to YTD highs despite downbeat Australian Trade Balance data.A weak US ADP employment report hurt the US Dollar on Wednesday as investors ramped up bets for Fed cuts.The Nonfarm Payrolls reading might boost US Dollar volatility later today..The Australian Dollar remains consolidating gains near the year-to-date highs at 0.6590. The negative impact from a lower-than-expected Australian trade Surplus in May has been contained above 0.6560 on Thursday, and the pair has retraced previous losses as the US Dollar drifts lower ahead of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.

Investors are wary of placing large US Dollar bets ahead of June’s Payrolls release, and more so after the disappointing ADP employment reading seen on Wednesday. The ADP report revealed a 33,000 net loss in private employment in June, against expectations of a 95,000 increase.

The market is now awaiting the NFP report for a more accurate assessment of the labour market’s health, and also on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plans. Today’s payrolls are likely to boost the US Dollar’s volatility.Technical Analysis: Potential Double Top at 0.6590Technical indicators remain positive, with the trend of higher highs and higher lows intact and the intraday RSI steady above 50. Price action, however, suggests a potential Double top at 0.6590 that might be anticipating a deeper correction.
The pair should breach the June 2 low, at 0.6546, to confirm the DT pattern. The figure’s measured target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 23-July 1 rally, at 0.6510.
On the upside, above the mentioned July 1 and 2 high, at 0.6590, the trendline resistance from May 24 lows, now around 0.6645, is a plausible target for bulls. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

11:37 EUR/USD: Near term consolidation – OCBC
Euro (EUR) gains slowed overnight, in line with our caution. EUR was last at 1.18 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) gains slowed overnight, in line with our caution. EUR was last at 1.18 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bias remains to buy dips"Technical readings and comments from ECB officials earlier likely marked the first hint of concern or slight discomfort around the EUR’s pace of appreciation. We noted that several ECB officials made remarks on currency this week. ECB Vice President Guindos said that a rise in the euro beyond $1.20 could make things 'much more complicated', though he sees current levels as no cause for concern. ECB’s Simkus also commented that the speed at which the EUR is rising is something the ECB must monitor particularly carefully." "That said, there are also ECB officials who do not seem overly concerned. ECB’s Centeno said, 'we need to think about the current exchange rate as reflecting the strength of the euro, what’s going on globally,' He also said 'we’re also pushing a lot to increase the international role of the euro debt. It will bring more investors to Europe. It will increase interest in the euro so that’s good'. Muller signalled he is less concerned about the latest movements in EUR while Nagel said that EUR has averaged 1.1829 since it was introduced in 1999, and policymakers 'are taking into account all the factors that are leading to higher and lower inflation and this is the relevant way we should see it'." "Our constructive outlook on EUR remains intact though we see risks of slower pace of appreciation in the interim due to event risks – recent ECB comments may imply an implicit cap, 9 th July truce deadline and from a positioning point of view (where EUR is stretched). Bias remains to buy dips. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but shows tentative signs of fading while RSI shows signs of turning lower from overbought conditions. Next resistance at 1.1820 levels, before 1.1920 levels. Support at 1.1630, 1.1550 (21 DMA). We continue to caution for slower pace of gains or even some consolidation in the interim."

11:34 EUR: ECB starting to express some concern over euro strength – ING
The Financial Times is running a story today on ECB officials questioning whether the euro has strengthened too much.

The Financial Times is running a story today on ECB officials questioning whether the euro has strengthened too much. The macro arguments here would be that with the trade-weighted euro now rising at a 4% YoY rate, lower import prices could see the eurozone CPI undershooting its 2% target, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Not much resistance until the 1.1900/1910 are"The ECB's response here would have to be earlier and larger rate cuts, given that unilateral intervention to sell EUR/USD is politically unacceptable and would not work. These macro concerns over euro strength are at odds with the view that Europe should be taking advantage of this 'global euro' moment – and we'd back the latter story here, where global portfolio re-allocated to the eurozone can only be a good thing for private sector borrowing costs.""As above, NFP is the big story today, although we will have the release of the June ECB meeting minutes. Recall there was one dissenter in the decision to cut rates by 25bp to 2.00%.""EUR/USD remains well bid and it seems foolish to try and pick a top. There really is not much resistance until the 1.1900/1910 area, which could be seen at a stretch if NFP were negative, for example. Barring that, the default position is probably a 1.1750-1.1820 trading range ahead of more trade-related volatility next week. For reference, the FX options market also prices a 70 pip range for EUR/USD today as well."

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (51.3) in June: Actual (52.8)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (51.3) in June: Actual (52.8)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (50.7) in June: Actual (52)
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (50.7) in June: Actual (52)

11:27 China: Q2 GDP growth likely stayed above 5% – Standard Chartered
Q2 growth to have moderated to 5.1% y/y (4.7% prior), eased below 1% on a q/q basis. Official PMI survey suggests demand improved m/m in June, supporting production activity. Front-loading activity likely supported export growth; higher oil prices may have lifted import growth.

Q2 growth to have moderated to 5.1% y/y (4.7% prior), eased below 1% on a q/q basis. Official PMI survey suggests demand improved m/m in June, supporting production activity. Front-loading activity likely supported export growth; higher oil prices may have lifted import growth. CPI inflation returned to positive territory in June; PPI deflation may have stayed above 3% y/y, Standard Chartered's economists report. Growth likely eased, but remained resilient in Q2"The official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May on improved new orders and production. Meanwhile, the average reading edged down 0.5pts from Q1 to 49.4 in Q2, indicating a q/q slowdown, partially reflecting the tariff impact. The average readings for services and construction PMIs moved marginally in Q2, suggesting a stable performance without a major improvement or downturn. We estimate seasonally adjusted GDP growth of 0.8% q/q in Q2, slowing from the official estimate of 1.2% in Q1. In turn, GDP growth may have moderated to 5.1% y/y in Q2 from stronger-than-expected growth of 5.4% in Q1.""Real activity performance likely stayed solid in June. Industrial production (IP) growth may have picked up seasonally at quarter-end. Fixed asset investment (FAI) monthly growth likely improved on a moderation in the housing investment decline. Retail sales growth may have normalised from the holiday boost and an early start to the online shopping festival in May.""We estimate CPI inflation recovered to 0.1% y/y on higher fuel prices and steady core CPI inflation. We estimate CPI inflation recovered to 0.2% y/y on higher fuel prices and steady core CPI inflation. Total social financing (TSF) growth may have edged up in June on a seasonal expansion in CNY loans, still-sizeable government bond issuance, and increased corporate bond financing."

11:27 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.3600 due to persistent bearish bias
The USD/CAD pair extends its losses after registering nearly 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3590 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:05 USD/MXN falls below 18.80 as US Dollar remains subdued ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
USD/MXN edges lower after registering gains in the previous two successive sessions, trading around 18.80 during the European hours on Thursday.

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The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, driven by the downbeat ADP national employment report.US ADP Employment Change fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000.Traders await highly anticipated labor market data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, due later in the day. Moreover, ISM Services PMI and S&P Global US PMI will also be eyed on Thursday.The Mexican Peso (MXN) received support as Banxico signaled that further rate cuts would only occur as inflation eases, keeping an attractive real interest rate. Additionally, the confidence is bolstered in the MXN as Mexico’s Fiscal Balance reported a $1.03 billion trade surplus in May, driven by a 1.8% rise in non-oil exports, while remittance inflows hit a record $5.5 billion.However, Mexico's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 46.3 in June, compared to the previous reading of 46.7. The reading marked the weakest quarterly average since early 2021, highlighting a sharp decline in new orders as companies cited sluggish demand, project delays, and the effects of US tariffs. Consumer Confidence for June will be eyed later in the day. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50) in June
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.2) in June
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.2) in June

10:56 US Dollar Index (DXY) languishes below 97.00 with all eyes on US payrolls data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Dollar against the world’s six most traded currencies, keeps wavering below the 97.00 area, unable to take off from multi-year lows, after having lost more than 2% during the last two weeks.

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.4) in June
Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.4) in June

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (50.4) in June
Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (50.4) in June

10:52 EUR/USD steadies in cautious markets ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls
The EUR/USD pair is practically flat on Thursday, trading right below 1.1800 at the time of writing, not far from the multi-year highs reached earlier this week.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro remains steady near highs with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of the NFP report.Downbeat ADP employment data heightened hopes of a Fed rate cut and curbed the US Dollar's recovery on Wednesday.A trade deal between the US and Vietnam boosted optimism and added some weight to the safe-haven USD.The EUR/USD pair is practically flat on Thursday, trading right below 1.1800 at the time of writing, not far from the multi-year highs reached earlier this week. Investors' appetite for risk is fading as optimism about the US deal with Vietnam gives way to caution heading into the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, which boosted hopes that more such deals could be reached ahead of the July 9 deadline. The US Dollar (USD) lost ground against its main peers before picking up again, as other Asian countries complain about the complex tariff negotiations with the US.

Beyond that, Trump continued with his attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell. The US president asked Powell to "resign immediately" in the latest episode of an unprecedented hammering of a Fed chief that puts into question the independence of the central bank and erodes the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency.

In the Eurozone, Unemployment data released on Wednesday showed an unexpected deterioration of the labour market, and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers underscored the risks of persistent low inflation stemming from a strong Euro (EUR) and lower energy prices.

The highlight this Thursday is the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which have been moved one day forward this month due to the Independence Day holiday in the US on Friday. Payrolls' data will attract particular interest, following an unexpected decline in the ADP Employment report on Wednesday. The risk is skewed to the downside for the US Dollar as a downbeat reading might practically confirm a Fed interest rate cut in the coming months.
Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% -0.07% 0.09% 0.01% 0.17% 0.31% 0.04% EUR 0.00% -0.07% 0.10% 0.01% 0.17% 0.28% 0.08% GBP 0.07% 0.07% 0.16% 0.10% 0.23% 0.34% -0.06% JPY -0.09% -0.10% -0.16% -0.07% 0.09% 0.15% -0.16% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.10% 0.07% 0.14% 0.25% 0.05% AUD -0.17% -0.17% -0.23% -0.09% -0.14% -0.06% -0.28% NZD -0.31% -0.28% -0.34% -0.15% -0.25% 0.06% -0.40% CHF -0.04% -0.08% 0.06% 0.16% -0.05% 0.28% 0.40% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Higher hopes of Fed rate cuts keep US Dollar rallies limitedThe ADP Employment report showed a 33K decline in private payrolls in June, against market expectations of a 95K increase. June's reading features the first contraction since the pandemic and has boosted investors' interest in the NFP report, due at 12:30 GMT, which will be read from a monetary policy perspective.
Wednesday's ADP reading increased bets for Fed rate cuts in the next two months. Futures markets are now pricing in a 25% chance of a July cut, up from 20% before the report, while the odds for at least a 25 basis points (bps) cut in September have risen to 96% from 90%, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool data.
The market consensus anticipates a 110K increase on Nonfarm Payrolls in June, following a 139K increase in May. The Unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 4.3% from 4.2%, with Average Hourly Earnings growing at a 3.9% yearly rate, unchanged from the previous month.
Later on, the US ISM Services PMI is expected to show that the sector's activity returned to growth levels in June, with a 50.5 reading from a slight contraction at 49.9 in May.The Eurozone HCOB Services PMI is set to be released at 8:00 GMT and is likely to show that business activity in the sector stagnated in June, with the index at the 50.0 level that divides expansion from contraction, following May's 49.7 reading.
EUR/USD consolidates gains near 1.1830 highs

EUR/USD is going through some consolidation, having rallied more than 2% in a 10-day rally, reaching its highest levels in nearly four years at 1.1830. The pair has failed to find significant acceptance above 11800, but so far, it remains steady near highs with the US Dollar on the defensive.

The 4-hour chart shows the bullish trend intact, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) well above the 50 level. Immediate support is at Wednesday's low, at 1.1745. Further down, the area between the June 27 low at 1.1680 and the June 26 low at 1.1650 offers significant support for a bearish correction. On the upside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.1810 ahead of the June 1 high at 1.1830. Above here, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the July 1-2 reversal is at 1.1850. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.5) in June: Actual (49.2)
France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.5) in June: Actual (49.2)

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.6, above forecasts (48.7) in June
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.6, above forecasts (48.7) in June

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.7) in June: Actual (52.1)
Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.7) in June: Actual (52.1)

10:42 Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill clears procedural hurdle in US House of Representatives
The United States (US) House of Representatives clears procedural hurdle, paving the way for the debate and the final vote on President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill.”

10:34 Pound Sterling regains composure after doubts over Chancellor Reeves fuel slump
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range around 1.3650 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling oscillates in a tight range around 1.3650 against the US Dollar after falling by a sharp 0.8% on Wednesday.Investors dumped UK assets, including the Pound, amid political jitters surrounding UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves.Surging UK bond yields due to higher welfare benefits have weighed on the Pound Sterling.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range around 1.3650 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair seems to have found a floor after Wednesday's slump, in a broad sell-off in UK assets due to growing question marks around the continuity of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.The Pound, which fell more than 1% before paring some losses, regained some ground after Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Reeves – who is seen by markets as a big defender of fiscal rules – would continue in her post.Looking at the economic calendar, investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Investors will closely monitor the US employment data as comments from a few Fed officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, have signaled increasing labor market risks.“It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate,” Bowman said in the last week of June and added, “We should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward.”According to the estimates, the US economy added 110K fresh workers, fewer than 139K in May. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.3% from the prior reading of 4.2%.Meanwhile, the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown steadily by 3.9% on year. Month-on-month wage growth measure is estimated to have risen at a slower pace of 0.3%, compared to a 0.4% growth seen in May.Signs of softening labor market conditions would allow traders to raise bets supporting early interest rate cuts from the Fed. On the contrary, upbeat numbers would allow Fed officials more time to assess the impact of new economic policies announced by US President Donald Trump on the economy.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling struggles amid surging bond yieldsThe Pound Sterling strives to stabilize against its peers on Thursday after underperforming in first three trading days of the week, following a sharp surge in United Kingdom (UK) gilt yields.10-year UK gilt yields surged 17 basis points (bps) or almost 4% to near 4.61% on Wednesday after Prime Minister Keir refrained from backing Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves till next elections, following the announcement of an increase in welfare schemes by the government. However, PMI Starmer stated later that “She [Chancellor Reeves] is going nowhere”.The Downing Street increases standard allowance for Universal Credit (UC) to provide additional support to low-income households, which has become effective this month. The welfare bill introduced at the House of Commons this week has put Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal commitment into question after vowing to cut benefits in the Autumn statement to strengthen country’s fiscal position.New welfare reforms are expected to wipe out governments’ plans to save £5.5 billion by 2029-2030, which it decided to raise through reducing the UC health element for new claimants, according to data from UK Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).Higher borrowing costs for the UK government at a time when the economy is battling with global trade war risk have jeopardized the economic outlook.On the monetary policy front, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor has supported five interest rate cuts this year against four as anticipated by market participants, citing downside economic risks in 2026 due to demand weakness and trade disruptions, while speaking at the European Central Bank (ECB) summit in Sintra on Wednesday. Taylor was one of three BoE officials who supported an interest rate cut in the June policy meeting.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling trades sideway to near 1.3650 against the US Dollar on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair recovers after sliding to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3600.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded.Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3500 will act as key support zone. On the upside, the three-and-a-half-year high around 1.3800 will act as key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:32 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $36.80 ahead of US NFP
Silver price revisits two-week high near $36.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price gains sharply to near the two-week high around $36.80 ahead of the US NFP data for June.The US private sector saw a reduction in the labor force in June as businesses laid-off 33K workers.Silver price aims to reclaim the over-a-decade-high around $37.32.Silver price revisits two-week high near $36.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.The US official employment data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook as officials have lately warned of downside labor market risks.Economists expect US employers to have added 110K fresh workers, fewer than 139K in May. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.3% from the prior reading of 4.2%. Soft labor market data could bolster market expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Latest US ADP Employment figures suggests that the official labor market data could be weaker. The data showed on Wednesday that the US private sector laid-off 33K employees in June, while they were expected to hire 95K fresh workers. Additionally, the May reading was also revised lower to 29K from 37K.“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said.On the global front, US President Donald trump has announced that his team has struck a trade agreement with Vietnam. This comes at a time when the July 9 tariff deadline is approaching.Theoretically, improving global trade conditions diminish demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver. However, the Silver price remains firm as the Asian country is not one of top major trading partners of the US with whom it is still negotiating bilateral deals.Silver technical analysisSilver price strengthens after a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern formed on a four-hour time. Theoretically, the breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern often leads to a volatility expansion, which results in higher volume and wider ticks on the upside.The downward-sloping trendline of the Descending Triangle formation is plotted from the June 18 high of $37.32, while the horizontal support is marked from the June 20 low of $35.51.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI holds above that level.Looking down, the March 28 high around $34.60 will act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the fresh over-a-decade high around $37.32 will be the key barrier.Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

10:18 WTI falls to near $66.00 due to concerns over weak US Oil demand
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $66.00 per barrel during the early European hours on Thursday.

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Crude Oil prices depreciate as a build in US crude stockpiles increased concerns over weak demand from the United States (US), the world’s largest Oil consumer.US Crude Oil Stocks Change reported a surprise increase of 3.845 million barrels in the week ended June 27, against market expectations of a 2.0 million-barrel decrease and a previous decline of 5.836M, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report.Additionally, Oil prices receive downward pressure from signs of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia, known as OPEC+, raising their production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at their meeting this weekend, per Reuters. This output increase will raise the total gain to 1.78 million barrels per day in 2025, equivalent to more than 1.5% of global oil demand.Traders adopt caution over the possibility of US tariffs being reinstated, which could cause lower fuel demand. Uncertainty increases around US trade policy as the 90-day pause on the implementation of higher tariffs will end on July 9 without any new trade deals with several large trading partners, such as the European Union and Japan.Moreover, China’s Caixin Services PMI declined to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, missing the market forecast of 51.0. The data indicated that service sector activity in the world’s largest oil-importing country grew at its slowest pace in nine months in June, as demand softened and new export orders declined. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

10:17 EUR/JPY stands firm near YTD peak; bulls await breakout through 169.70-169.75 hurdle
The EUR/JPY cross edges higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday and climbs back closer to a nearly one-year high touched earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 169.70-169.75 area, up 0.10% for the day amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).

10:15 NZD/USD attracts some sellers to below 0.6100 ahead of US NFP data
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.6070 during the early European session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Greenback as China's services activity growth hits a nine-month low in June.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.9 above expectations (51) in June
Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.9 above expectations (51) in June

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.37%, below expectations (1.45%) in June
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.37%, below expectations (1.45%) in June

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (35.2%) in June: Actual (35.05%)
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (35.2%) in June: Actual (35.05%)

09:56 Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 3:

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The US economic calendar will also offer weekly Jobless Claims data and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report for June. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.58% 0.48% -0.37% -0.71% -0.62% -0.35% -1.00% EUR 0.58% 1.03% 0.22% -0.14% -0.06% 0.24% -0.43% GBP -0.48% -1.03% -1.00% -1.17% -1.08% -0.80% -1.45% JPY 0.37% -0.22% 1.00% -0.34% -0.19% 0.07% -0.57% CAD 0.71% 0.14% 1.17% 0.34% 0.05% 0.37% -0.28% AUD 0.62% 0.06% 1.08% 0.19% -0.05% 0.28% -0.37% NZD 0.35% -0.24% 0.80% -0.07% -0.37% -0.28% -0.65% CHF 1.00% 0.43% 1.45% 0.57% 0.28% 0.37% 0.65% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). After starting the day on a bullish note on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) lost its recovery momentum in the American session to end the day with small gains. The data published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that employment in the private sector declined by 33,000 in June. This reading followed the 29,000 increase recorded in April and missed the market expectation of +95,000 by a wide margin. Financial markets in the US will close early on Thursday and remain closed on Friday in observance of the July 4 holiday. The USD Index stays relatively quiet in the European morning and moves up and down in a tight range below 97.00. Meanwhile, House Republicans are yet to approve US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill. Related news It could be make or break for the Greenback today with the June Payrolls Sizing the fuse: NFP looms, Dollar waits to detonate Focus on day-early US Jun NFP and Jun ISM services PMI EUR/USD moves up and down in a tight range at around 1.1800 after posting marginal losses on Wednesday. GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3650 after suffering large losses on Wednesday. UK government bonds and Pound Sterling came under heavy selling pressure during the European session on Wednesday after British finance minister Rachel Reeves seemed visibly upset during PMQs as Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to guarantee that she would remain in her position until the next election. Later in the day, Starmer said that Reeves would remain chancellor "for a very long time to come," easing concerns over a political turmoil.USD/JPY edges slightly higher early Thursday but stays below 144.00. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that Japan is close to achieving BoJ's price target but hasn't fully achieved it yet, so it needs to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.Gold extended its recovery into a third consecutive day on Wednesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase above $3,350 in the European morning on Thursday. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in June
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in June

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (0.1%)
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (0.1%)

09:16 EUR/GBP softens to near 0.8650 ahead of German, Eurozone PMI releases
The EUR/GBP cross loses ground to near 0.8650, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early European session on Thursday. The HCOB Services and Composite PMI reports from Germany and the Eurozone will be the highlights later on Thursday.

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Tariff uncertainty between the US and EU undermines the Euro against the Pound Sterling. Rising market anxieties over the UK's debt position might help limit the EUR/GBP’s losses. The EUR/GBP cross loses ground to near 0.8650, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early European session on Thursday. The HCOB Services and Composite PMI reports from Germany and the Eurozone will be the highlights later on Thursday.Inflation in the Eurozone edges up in June, hitting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target and raising expectations that policymakers will leave the key interest rate unchanged later this month. Financial markets forecast one more ECB rate reduction to 1.75% toward the end of the year, followed by a period of steady rates before potential hikes around the end of 2026.The US made a fresh proposal to the European Union’s (EU) negotiation team last week. European negotiators will meet with their US officials later this week, hoping to reach an agreement in the following days. European officials expect an update about trade talks on Friday, but the situation remains unsettled. The trade tariff uncertainty between the US President Donald Trump's administration and the Eurozone could dampen the sentiment and drag the shared currency lower in the near term.On the other hand, the British bonds had their biggest selloff since October 2022, and the Pound Sterling (GBP) faces some selling pressure after the UK government sharply scaled back plans to cut benefits. Recent market reaction reflects the market concerns about the credibility of the government to bring down fiscal deficits. Rising market anxieties over the UK's debt position might weigh on the GBP in the near term and create a tailwind for the major pair. “It’s not just the British pound that is sharply lower but the gilts are under a lot of pressure as well. I think it’s just a crisis of confidence in the Labour government,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:07 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.08 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $66.75.

09:01 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 49.2 in June from previous 52.2
Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 49.2 in June from previous 52.2

08:24 BoJ's Takata: Japan is close to achieving price target but hasn't fully achieved it yet
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that Japan is close to achieving BoJ's price target but hasn't fully achieved it yet, so it needs to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.

08:19 GBP/JPY remains under pressure around 196.00 amid rallying UK bond yields
The GBP/JPY pair trades cautiously near 196.00 during the Asian session on Thursday after posting a fresh weekly low around 195.40 the previous day.

08:06 FX option expiries for Jul 3 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jul 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1550 3.4b1.1600 5.6b1.1625 1.9b1.1650 1.4b1.1700 4.3b1.1725 1.4b1.1750 2.6b1.1770 1.3b1.1775 3.2b1.1800 8.4b1.1825 1.7b1.1850 2.4b1.1900 1.8bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3600 518mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 1.5b144.00 1b144.50 1b145.00 1.8bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6500 1b0.6550 622m0.6600 1.4bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3500 1.1b1.3600 2.5b1.3725 956mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8500 517m0.8590 473m0.8640 523m

08:02 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 60.4, below expectations (60.7) in June
India HSBC Services PMI came in at 60.4, below expectations (60.7) in June

08:02 India HSBC Composite PMI remains unchanged at 61 in June
India HSBC Composite PMI remains unchanged at 61 in June

08:00 Nonfarm Payrolls set to show hiring environment in US labor market remained subdued in June
The all-important United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise by 110K in June, lower than May’s 139K increase.The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the employment data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.The US jobs report could significantly impact the US Dollar’s performance as it provides key data to gauge the timing of the next Fed rate cut.The all-important United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.The June employment report will be closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next interest rate cut and the direction of the US Dollar (USD), which trades close to three-and-a-half-year lows against its major peers.What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 110,000 in June after reporting a 139,000 increase in May. The Unemployment Rate (UE) will likely tick higher to 4.3% during the same period, following May’s 4.2%.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in June, at the same pace as seen in May.Previewing the June employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “We expect NFP job gains moderated to 125K in June. Homebase data suggest a similar deceleration in gains as in May. We also expect the UE rate to tick up to 4.3% as continuing claims have risen between reference weeks.”“Last month just rounded down to 4.2%. AHE likely moderated to 0.2% MoM from 0.4% (3.8% YoY). Leading indicators suggest downside risks to employment data in June.,” they added.How will US June Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?Amidst renewed concerns over US President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill and tariffs, the US Dollar wallows near the lowest level since February 2022 against its major currency rivals.Markets pondered the prospects of the Fed rate cuts, especially after Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on central banking in Sintra on Tuesday.Powell noted that “we're taking time, for as long as the US economy is solid, the prudent thing is to wait."However, the Fed Chair clarified: “I wouldn't take any meeting off the table. Can't say if July is too soon to cut rates, will depend on data."On the data front, the JOLTS report on Tuesday showed that US Job Openings, a measure of labor demand, were up 374,000 to 7.769 million by the last day of May, way above expectations of 7.3 million in the reported period. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49 in June versus May’s 48.5 and the forecast of 48.8.In contrast, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed on Wednesday that the US private sector payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month, the first decline since March 2023, after a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May. The market forecast was for an increase of 95,000.Traders are now pricing in 64 basis points (bps) of cuts this year from the Fed, with the odds of a move in July at 25%, according to Refinitiv’s interest rate probabilities.Therefore, stakes are high heading into the June jobs data, as the Fed sticks to its ‘data-dependent’ rhetoric.A reading below the 100,000 level and an expected increase in the Unemployment Rate could indicate loosening labor market conditions, ramping up the odds of a Fed rate cut this month.This scenario will likely exacerbate the USD’s pain and bolster the Gold price recovery from monthly troughs.In case the NFP prints above 150,000 and the Unemployment Rate holds steady at 4.2%, Gold could continue its pullback from weekly highs as the data could push back against expectations of more than two Fed rate cuts this year.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “The main currency pair risks a pullback toward the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support at 1.1568 as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the overbought territory above the 70 level on the daily chart.”“Buyers must take out the September 2021 high of 1.1909 to extend the uptrend toward the 1.2000 psychological level. Conversely, EUR/USD could challenge the 21-day SMA at 1.1568 if a correction kicks off. The next downside targets are aligned at the 1.1500 round level and the 50-day SMA at 1.1414.” Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 110K Previous: 139K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

07:58 USD/CNF Price Forecast: Flat lines around 7.1620-7.1625; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus
The USD/CNH pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third straight day on Thursday and remains close to the year-to-date low touched earlier this week.

07:57 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains in play near 1.3600
The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3595 during the early European session on Thursday. The potential upside for the pair might be limited as weaker AUS ADP employment numbers supported market expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.

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The pair keeps the negative outlook below the 100-day EMA with a bearish RSI indicator. The initial support emerges at 1.3555; the first upside barrier is located at 1.3700.The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3595 during the early European session on Thursday. The potential upside for the pair might be limited as weaker AUS ADP employment numbers supported market expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut. The attention will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which will be published later on Thursday. According to the daily chart, the bearish outlook of USD/CAD remains in play as the pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The path of least resistance is to the downside, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index standing below the midline near 38.75. The first downside target for the pair emerges at 1.3555, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. Extended losses could see a drop to the 1.3505-1.3500 zone, the low of September 5, 2024, and the round mark. The next contention level for USD/CAD is seen at 1.3430, the low of September 24, 2024. On the bright side, the immediate resistance level is located at the 1.3700 psychological level. Sustained trading above this level could attract some buyers to 1.3767, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 1.3895, the 100-day EMA.USD/CAD Daily Chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:57 USD/INR edges higher at open ahead of US NFP data
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a cautious note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 85.75 ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 85.75 ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 110K fresh workers, fewer than 139K in May. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.3% from the prior reading of 4.2%.Financial market participants will also pay close attention to the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key indicator of wage growth, which is expected to have grown steadily by 3.9% on year. Month-on-month wage growth measure is estimated to have risen at a slower pace of 0.3%, compared to a 0.4% growth seen in May.Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data as a few Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have argued in favor of interest rate cuts as early as the July policy meeting, citing concerns over labor market strength."The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview in the last week of June.Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change data on Wednesday has shown cracks emerging in the labor market. The agency reported a decline in the labor force in the private sector for the first time since the pandemic era. Businesses laid off 33K employees in June, while they were expected to hire 95K fresh workers. Additionally, the May reading was also revised lower to 29K from 37K.“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee remains under pressure the entire weekThe Indian Rupee is down against its major peers this week as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned cautious ahead of the deadline of the tariff policy imposed by the US on July 9. Foreign investors have sold Indian equities worth Rs. 3,531.76 crores in the first two trading days of July.The uncertainty surrounding the reciprocal tariff policy, as the approaching deadline has forced investors to stay on the sidelines. While market experts struggle to gauge its likely impact on the global economy, Washington is still negotiating trade agreements with its major trading partners. Meanwhile, the US has stated that it has struck a deal with Vietnam.US President Donald Trump has also signaled that Washington will secure a deal with New Delhi before the tariff deadline. “I think we are going to have a deal with India. And that is going to be a different kind of a deal. It is going to be a deal where we are able to go in and compete. Right now, India does not accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we are going to have a deal for much lower tariffs,” Trump said on Wednesday, ANI News reported.The comments from US President Trump indicate that the trade deal is not a complete win for India as it will expose Indian manufacturers to competition from US companies, which are highly capital-intensive.Meanwhile, the clearance of Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate with a narrow majority has increased fears of ballooning already fat US debt. Market experts believe that Trump’s tax and spending cut bill will increase the debt burden to $40 trillion over a decade, a move that could bring further downgrades to US Sovereign Credit.Trump’s bill has been passed to the House of Representatives for further approval. If approved, it will march to the president’s desk.Technical Analysis: USD/INR oscillates around 85.75The USD/INR pair oscillates well inside Wednesday’s trading range at open on Thursday. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range between 85.56-86.00 over the last three trading days. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains bearish as it stays below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.90.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below 50.00, indicating that the trend is on the downside.Looking down, the 200-day EMA around 85.35 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, Wednesday’s high of 86.13 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:49 USD/CHF holds losses near 0.7900 ahead of Swiss CPI data
USD/CHF retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.7920 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair maintains its position around 0.7872, the lowest since September 2011, recorded on July 1.

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The pair maintains its position around 0.7872, the lowest since September 2011, recorded on July 1. Traders await Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to gain further impetus on the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy outlook, due later in the day.The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) officials suggested that both negative rates and currency interventions remain on the table. In June, the SNB cut rates to 0% to address easing inflationary pressures and indicated it could push rates into negative territory if downside risks persist.The Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday that Real Retail Sales remained flat at 0% year-over-year in May, falling short of market expectations of 0.8% and coming in below the previous 0.9% growth. Moreover, the SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved to 49.6 in June from 42.1 in May. The reading significantly surpassed market expectations of 44.0; however, the index remained below the 50-point expansion level for the 30th consecutive month.The downside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) extends its gains for the second successive session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading at around 96.80 at the time of writing.Traders await highly anticipated labor market data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, due later in the day. Moreover, ISM Services PMI and S&P Global US PMI will also be eyed on Thursday. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,219.75 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,243.10 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 107,537.80 per tola from INR 107,811.00 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,219.75 10 Grams 92,197.86 Tola 107,537.80 Troy Ounce 286,759.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold price climbs as US yields and US Dollar advanced Gold rally is set to remain, as data revealed by the World Gold Council said that central banks added 20 tonnes of the yellow metal in May, with Kazakhstan leading the way. The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported 7 tonnes, followed by the Central Bank of Turkey, which reported 6 tonnes, and the National Bank of Poland. Bullion edges higher even as US Treasury yields rise. The 10-year US Treasury note is yielding 4.296%, a five-basis-point increase. US real yields, which are calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the nominal yield, are also moving up close to six basis points to 2.006%. The ADP Employment Change report for June showed that private companies decreased hiring by 33,000 in June, well below estimates of 95,000. The report showed that service providers reduced payrolls by 66,000 in June due to declines in professional and business services. The approval of US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is in doubt as House Republican hardliners are eyeing modifications to the bill, which Trump wants signed by July 4. Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, under which US products could be exported with 0% tariffs. In contrast, the US imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnam's goods and 40% duties on transshipment. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that policy is modestly restrictive and added that he can’t say if July is too early to cut rates, though he wouldn’t rule anything out. He said that if not for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the US central bank probably would have cut rates further. Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 63.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:31 Gold price drifts lower on US-Vietnam trade deal, NFP in focus
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled a three-day-old recovery move from a one-month low touched earlier this week. A trade agreement between the US and Vietnam eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price retreats from over a one-week high touched during the Asian session.A US-Vietnam trade deal undermines demand for the safe-haven precious metal. A modest USD uptick also weighs on the commodity ahead of the US NFP report.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled a three-day-old recovery move from a one-month low touched earlier this week. A trade agreement between the US and Vietnam eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick turns out to be another factor exerting some downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal. Any meaningful depreciation for the commodity, however, seems elusive in the wake of dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.In fact, traders seem convinced that the US central bank would resume its rate-cutting cycle in the near future. The bets were reaffirmed by Wednesday's disappointing release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment. This, along with concerns that the US fiscal condition could worsen further in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s budget bill, should cap the USD and support the Gold price. Traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and determining the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by positive risk tone, modest USD uptickPresident Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States has struck a trade agreement with Vietnam. The US will impose a lower, 20% tariff on goods imported from the Southeast Asian nation, and the deal will give the US tariff-free access to Vietnam’s markets. Meanwhile, negotiators from the US and India are pushing to land a tariff-reducing deal ahead of Trump's July 9 deadline. The developments boost investors' confidence and prompt some profit-taking around the safe-haven Gold price following a three-day winning streak. However, Trump has indicated no signs of extending the negotiation deadline despite stalled discussions with Japan, another key trade partner. This keeps trade-related uncertainties in play, which, in turn, might continue to offer some support to the precious metal.On the economic data front, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that US private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years during June. In fact, the US private-sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33K compared to the downwardly revised rise of 29K. This comes on top of Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, and underscores a deteriorating trend in the US labor market. Moreover, a sluggish hiring environment might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start cutting interest rates again as early as this month. In fact, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 25% chance of a rate cut by the Fed at the July 29-30 monetary policy meeting. Moreover, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is all but certain, and expectations for two rate reductions by the end of this year are also high.Dovish Fed expectations should keep a lid on the US Dollar's attempted recovery from a three-and-a-half-year low and contribute to limiting losses for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Gold price bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buyingFrom a technical perspective, this week's breakout above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned near the $3,330-3,329 region (200-hour SMA). A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the commodity further towards the $3,300 round figure.On the flip side, the $3,363-$3,365 zone, or over a one-week high touched on Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter would negate any near-term negative outlook and lift the XAU/USD pair to the next relevant hurdle near the $3,435-$3,440 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:11 GBP/USD weakens below 1.3650 amid concerns over the UK debt position, US NFP data in focus
The GBP/USD pair extends the decline to near 1.3625 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces some selling pressure amid a selloff in British government bonds.

07:08 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Moves below 94.50, nine-day EMA acts as initial support
AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 94.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. As per the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a prevailing bullish bias.

06:39 EUR/USD trades around 1.1800, upside appears amid rising odds of Fed rate cuts
EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.1800 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

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The pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, driven by the downbeat ADP national employment report.US ADP Employment Change fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000.Traders await highly anticipated labor market data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, due later in the day. Moreover, ISM Services PMI and S&P Global US PMI will also be eyed on Thursday.Latest remarks from several European Central Bank (ECB) officials on the ECB forum highlighted increasing concern over the Euro's (EUR) strength and its potential dampening effect on inflation.ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Wednesday that “I am not uncomfortable with the market's interest rate expectations.” “There is an argument for providing a mildly supportive policy stance,” Wunsch added. Meanwhile, ECB member Olli Rehn said, “ECB should be mindful of the risk that inflation stays persistently below 2% target.” Rehn noted that the “joint European borrowing to finance defence could bolster the Euro's role by creating a new safe asset.” Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:59 EUR/JPY steadies around 169.50, with upside potential due to BoJ’s caution on rate hikes
EUR/JPY remains steady following recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 169.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:51 Silver Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above the $35.40 horizontal support
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers near the $36.55-$36.60 region during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up to the top end of the weekly range.

05:41 S. Korea’s President Lee: US tariff negotiations looking very difficult
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said on Thursday that “US tariff negotiations looking very difficult.”

05:22 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against a bearish USD, ahead of US NFP report
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild positive bias against a bearish US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to a nearly one-month peak touched earlier this week.

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Traders await the US NFP report before placing fresh directional bets around the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild positive bias against a bearish US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to a nearly one-month peak touched earlier this week. Despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike hesitations, investors seem convinced that the central bank will stay on the path of monetary policy normalization amid the broadening inflation in Japan. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to other major central banks' (including the US Federal Reserve (Fed)) push towards a more easing approach and benefits the lower-yielding JPY.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hinted at potentially ending trade talks with Japan and also threatened more tariffs on Japan over its alleged unwillingness to buy American-grown rice. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, is seen acting as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY. Furthermore, traders seem reluctant and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) and providing some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand as BoJ rate hike bets offset trade jittersBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the current policy rate was below neutral and additional interest rate hikes will depend on inflation dynamics. Consumer inflation in Japan has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for more than three years as companies continue to pass on rising raw material costs. This backs the case for further tightening by the central bank and acts as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. In contrast, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, when asked if July was too soon to consider rate cuts on Tuesday, answered that it’s going to depend on the data. Traders ramped up their bets and are now pricing in nearly a 25% chance of a rate cut by the Fed at the July 29-30 meeting. Moreover, a 25 basis points rate cut in September is all but certain, and expectations for two rate reductions by the end of this year are high. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on Powell and called for the Fed chief to quit immediately. This further raises concerns about the central bank's independence and keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive. Also weighing on the US currency is the disappointing release of the US ADP report on Wednesday, which showed that private payrolls unexpectedly lost 33,000 jobs in June.Moreover, the previous month's reading was revised down to show an addition of 29,000 jobs compared to 37,000 reported initially. The data suggested a sluggish hiring environment and fueled speculations that the US Unemployment Rate might tick up to at least 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due later this Thursday.On the trade-related front, Trump expressed frustration over stalled US-Japan trade negotiations and cast doubt about reaching an agreement before the July 9 deadline. Furthermore, Trump suggested that he could impose a tariff of 30% or 35% on imports from Japan, above the tariff rate of 24% announced on April 2, in retaliation for the latter's alleged unwillingness to buy American-grown rice.USD/JPY seems vulnerable while below 200-SMA on H4, around the 144.30 region From a technical perspective, the overnight rejection near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and negative oscillators suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 143.40-143.35 area would reaffirm the bearish outlook and drag spot prices further towards the 143.00 round figure. This is followed by the weekly low, around the 142.70-142.65 region, which, if broken, should pave the way for a fall towards the May monthly swing low, around the 142.15-142.10 region. On the flip side, any positive move back above the 144.00 mark might continue to face stiff resistance near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged near the 144.30 region. A sustained strength above the latter, however, could trigger a short-covering move and lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 144.65 horizontal zone, towards the 145.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 145.40-145.45 supply zone, which, if cleared decisively, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:20 NZD/USD holds below 0.6100 as China's services sector grows less than expected in June
The NZD/USD pair loses traction to near 0.6080 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) after the disappointing Chinese economic data. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June will be the highlight later on Friday.

05:14 Australian Dollar remains subdued following Trade Balance, China’s Services PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of key economic data.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains under pressure after the trade surplus narrowed to 2,238M MoM in May, against the expected 5,091M.China’s Caixin Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, missing the market expectations of 51.0.Traders expect the US Nonfarm Payrolls to increase by 110,000 in June.The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of key economic data. However, the downside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, driven by the downbeat ADP national employment report.Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that trade surplus narrowed to 2,238M month-over-month in May, against 5,091M expected and 4,859M (revised from 5,431M) in April. Meanwhile, Exports fell by 2.7% MoM from -1.7% (revised from -2.4%) prior. Imports increased by 3.8% MoM, against the previous increase of 1.6% (revised from 1.1%).The S&P Global Australia Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.6 in June from the previous reading of 50.5. The reading has marked a ninth successive month of growth and the fastest pace since March. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 51.8 from 50.6 prior, indicating the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024.In Australia’s close trading partner, China, Caixin Services PMI declined to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, missing the market forecast of 51.0.Australian Dollar declines despite a weaker US Dollar ahead of labor dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains and trading at around 96.70 at the time of writing. Traders await highly anticipated labor market data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, due later in the day. Moreover, ISM Services PMI and S&P Global US PMI will also be eyed on Thursday.US ADP Employment Change fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000.US President Donald Trump’s top trade officials were seeking phased tariff deals with the most engaged countries as they pushed on to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline, when Trump had vowed to reimpose his harshest levies, per the Financial Times.Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted on Tuesday that the US central bank will gauge more data before it initiates monetary policy easing, but he did not rule out a rate reduction in the July meeting.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he believes the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates earlier than the fall, but they will definitely cut rates by September at the latest, per Fox News.US ISM Manufacturing PMI advanced to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, coming in above experts' expectations of 48.8. The readings indicated that economic activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector improved in June. Meanwhile, US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.76 million in May, compared to 7.395 million reported in April. This figure came in above the market expectation of 7.3 million.The US Senate has narrowly passed President Trump’s “big, beautiful budget bill”, with a thin 51-50 margin. The bill now heads to the US House of Representatives, where it is expected to face a tight vote. Trump, who campaigned on eliminating the US federal deficit, is now set to sign a spending bill into law that will add trillions of dollars to the national debt over the next decade.China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The reading surpassed the market forecast of 49.0. It is important to note that any economic change in China could impact AUD as both countries are close trade partners.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Retail Sales rose 0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to a flat 0% in April (revised from -0.1%). The reading came in below the market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Building Permits rose by 3.2% in May, as compared to the previous decline of 4.1%, but fell short of the expected 4.8% increase.Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in June from the previous 51.0. The output declined to its lowest reading since February due to adequate client inventories and weaker market conditions, data showed on Tuesday.Australian Dollar pulls back from eight-month highs near 0.6600AUD/USD is trading around 0.6570 on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Additionally, the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that short-term price momentum is stronger.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could retest the eight-month high of 0.6590, which was marked on July 1. A successful breach above this level could support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6660.The nine-day EMA at 0.6549 appears as the primary support. A break below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6490, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 0.6466.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.05% -0.09% -0.09% -0.05% 0.11% 0.13% 0.00% EUR 0.05% -0.05% -0.02% -0.01% 0.16% 0.14% 0.09% GBP 0.09% 0.05% 0.02% 0.04% 0.19% 0.17% -0.07% JPY 0.09% 0.02% -0.02% 0.03% 0.20% 0.14% -0.03% CAD 0.05% 0.00% -0.04% -0.03% 0.16% 0.14% 0.10% AUD -0.11% -0.16% -0.19% -0.20% -0.16% -0.18% -0.26% NZD -0.13% -0.14% -0.17% -0.14% -0.14% 0.18% -0.25% CHF -0.01% -0.09% 0.07% 0.03% -0.10% 0.26% 0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Trade Balance (MoM) The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2,238M Consensus: 5,091M Previous: 5,413M Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

04:59 BoJ's Takata: Central bank is currently only pausing its policy rate hike cycle
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that the Japanese central bank is currently only pausing its policy rate hike cycle and it should continue to make a ‘gear shift’ after a certain period of ‘wait and see.’

04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI drops to 50.6 in June vs. 51 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Thursday.

04:45 China Caixin Services PMI came in at 50.6, below expectations (51) in June
China Caixin Services PMI came in at 50.6, below expectations (51) in June

04:35 Australia’s Trade Surplus narrows to 2,238M MoM in May vs. 5,091M expected
Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,238M MoM in May versus 5,091M expected and 4,859M (revised from 5,431M) in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

04:31 Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous -2.4% to -2.7% in May
Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous -2.4% to -2.7% in May

04:31 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 2238M below forecasts (5091M) in May
Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 2238M below forecasts (5091M) in May

04:30 Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous 1.1% to 3.8% in May
Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous 1.1% to 3.8% in May

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1523 vs. 7.1546 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1523 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1546 and 7.1618 Reuters estimate.

04:04 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price down to -2.3% in June from previous 1.9%
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price down to -2.3% in June from previous 1.9%

03:59 US Dollar Index edges lower below 97.00 on downbeat US job data, Fed rate cut bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, remains on the defensive near 96.70 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above expectations (51.5) in June: Actual (51.7)
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above expectations (51.5) in June: Actual (51.7)

03:04 WTI tumbles below $66.50 on surprise build in US stockpiles
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.40 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price declines on a surprise build in US crude supplies. Oil traders await cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's August output policy.

03:01 Ireland AIB Services PMI declined to 51.5 in June from previous 54.7
Ireland AIB Services PMI declined to 51.5 in June from previous 54.7

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥651.3B (June 27) vs ¥-524.3B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥651.3B (June 27) vs ¥-524.3B

02:30 GBP/USD struggles to regain balance ahead of key labor data
GBP/USD tumbled on Wednesday, falling back below the 1.3600 handle in a sharp plunge fueled by a sharp increase in UK bond yields.

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Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

02:10 USD/CAD extends downside below 1.3600 on downbeat US ADP employment data
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.3585 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure amid mounting US debt concerns, tariff policies uncertainty and rising interest rate cut bets.

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US June ADP private payrolls fell for the first time in two years. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report for June will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.3585 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure amid mounting US debt concerns, tariff policies uncertainty and rising interest rate cut bets. The US June Nonfarm Payrolls report will take center stage later on Thursday. Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax-and-spending bill, which could add 3.3 trillion in additional national debt. Rising fiscal worries have dampened optimism and weighed on the USD against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Additionally, the US private payrolls fell in June for the first time in over two years, signaling possible headwinds in the upcoming jobs report and contributing to the Greenback’s downside. Data released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday showed that private-sector payrolls decreased 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000. All eyes will be on the US employment data for June on Thursday. Economists expect data on Thursday to show the US NFP increasing by 110,000 in June. Also, the Unemployment Rate, ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released. Nonetheless, a decline in Crude Oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and help limit the pair’s losses. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

02:08 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 144.00 and falls, as Trump slams Powell again
The USD/JPY registered modest gains on Wednesday, with the pair closing up 0.18%, finishing the session below 143.70. As Thursday’s Asian session begins, the pair trades at 143.63, virtually unchanged.

02:01 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.6 (June) vs 51.2
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.6 (June) vs 51.2

02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.8, above forecasts (51.3) in June
Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.8, above forecasts (51.3) in June

00:35 AUD/USD steadies ahead of trade data from Australia and US NFPs
The Australian Dollar is trading flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday as both economies wait for the release of critical economic data on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) sets the stage for Fed rate expectations, serving as a key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair.Aussie Dollar turns cautious ahead of Australian trade data and China’s services PMIs.AUD/USD stalls below 0.6600 after rising above wedge resistanceThe Australian Dollar is trading flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday as both economies wait for the release of critical economic data on Thursday. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is hovering around 0.6584, with traders positioning ahead of upcoming catalysts that could drive volatility.Aussie Dollar turns cautious ahead of Australian trade data and China’s services PMITraders are cautious ahead of Australia’s May Trade Balance, expected to show a surplus of 5.09 billion AUD, slightly below April’s 5.41 billion AUD. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) for June is forecast at 51, down marginally from 51.1 in May.This matters because AUD/USD is highly sensitive to trade and Chinese growth data, and Thursday’s releases could set the tone ahead of key US labour market data due later in the day.A downside surprise in either figure may pressure the Aussie, while stronger-than-expected numbers could offer support for AUD/USD.Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may set the tone for Fed expectations and AUD/USD directionBut the real spotlight will fall on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). The report is expected to show that 110,000 jobs were added to the US economy in June, down from 139,000 in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. The report is highly anticipated, especially after Wednesday's ADP Employment Change report, which came in well below expectations with a net loss of 33K jobs.The Federal Reserve has held interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut rates to 3.85%, citing domestic weakness. The divergence in policy paths has capped Aussie upside in recent weeks.Speaking at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum on Tuesday, Powell stated that "It's going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting. I wouldn't take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It's going to depend on how the data evolves.”These comments suggest that the outcome of the June Nonfarm Payrolls could set the tone for the upcoming Fed interest rate decision.AUD/USD stalls below 0.6600 after rising above wedge resistanceAUD/USD is holding just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-April decline near 0.6550, with price action finding temporary support above the rising wedge formation. The pair remains above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6464 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6432, reinforcing the bullish bias. AUD/USD daily chartAt the time of writing, the psychological level of 0.6600 is acting as immediate resistance. A sustained break above this threshold could open the path toward the November high at 0.6688, aligned with the 78.6% retracement at 0.6722. On the downside, initial support lies near 0.6550, followed by the confluence zone around 0.6463–0.6428. A break below 0.6400 would invalidate the bullish structure and expose the pair to deeper losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 62, suggesting room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:29 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climbs above $36.00, gains more than 1%
The silver price printed solid gains on Wednesday, up 1.40%, yet it remains consolidating within the $36.00-$36.60 range for the second consecutive day. A positive market mood and broad US Dollar strength capped the grey metal’s advance.

00:05 EUR/USD holds near 1.1800 as soft US jobs data fuels Fed cut bets
The Euro (EUR) posts minimal losses of 0.08% against the US Dollar (USD), trading below the 1.1800 figure on Wednesday. A worse-than-expected US jobs report increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates amid growing recession fears in the world's largest economy.

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A worse-than-expected US jobs report increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates amid growing recession fears in the world's largest economy. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1795, virtually unchanged.On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) announced that private payrolls decreased in June, marking the first decline in two years. Although the US Dollar initially weakened, it recovered some ground, dragging EUR/USD back below 1.1800 as traders brace for the release of the latest employment figures.Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US are expected to come at 110K, below May’s 139K. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to be 4.3%, up from 4.2%, but well below the 4.4% projected by the Federal Reserve for the end of the year.A weaker-than-expected US jobs report might increase the odds for further easing by the Fed. Recently, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that there's no urgency to change policy at the moment, noting that a significant amount of incoming data is expected ahead of the July meeting.In the Eurozone, the latest Unemployment Rate report rose from 6.2% to 6.3% in May, exceeding estimates aligned with the previous reading.Meanwhile, Policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) made headlines. Mario Centeno said that the central bank remains cautious about the rate path, while Olli Rehn added that they should be mindful of the risk of inflation persistently standing below the 2% target. Pierre Wunsch said he’s not uncomfortable with market rate expectations.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD advance pauses ahead of Nonfarm PayrollsThe recovery of the Greenback caps the EUR/USD advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the advance of the buck against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.13% at 96.78.The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private sector employment in the US fell by 33K jobs in June, a stark miss compared to expectations for a 95K job gain. The decline was driven primarily by service-providing industries, which shed 66K positions, mainly due to a pullback in professional and business services.The approval of US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is in doubt as House Republican Hardliners are eyeing modifications to the bill, which Trump wants signed by July 4.Trade news revealed that Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, under which US products could be exported with 0% tariffs. In contrast, the US imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnam's goods and 40% duties on transshipment.Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that monetary policy remains “modestly restrictive” and declined to commit to a rate cut in July, stating it’s too soon to say, while not ruling it out. He added that absent President Trump’s tariffs, the Fed likely would have lowered rates further.The EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will visit China in August, said SCMP, citing sources. Chinese investment within Europe is seen as a potential area for discussion. On this, the SCMP piece references EVs and battery plants.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD to consolidate near 1.1800 in the near-termEUR/USD remains upwardly biased, after hitting a two-day low of 1.1746. Despite this, momentum remains bullish as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, if the pair clears 1.1800, look for a test of the yearly high of 1.1829. If surpassed, the next key supply zone would be 1.1850 and 1.1900.On the other hand, if EUR/USD falls below 1.1750, a further decline to 1.1700 can be expected. Key support lies below the latter, at the June 26 daily low of 1.1653 and 1.1600. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves: 410.2B (June) vs 404.6B
South Korea FX Reserves: 410.2B (June) vs 404.6B

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Forex News Timeline

14:40 JPY soft but holding on to recent gains – Scotiabank The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but holding on to recent gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

14:35 CAD holds gains through upper 1.35s – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) pushed smartly higher through late morning trade yesterday to retest Friday’s high versus the USD near 1.3590.

14:00 EUR/USD trade may be stretched between 1.2200 and 1.2800 – BBH EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1800. ECB publishes the Account of its June 5 policy meeting (12:30pm London), BBH FX analysts report.

13:50 USD/CNH: Any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge lower against Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any decline is likely limited to a test of 7.1500.

13:31 USD: The next US ‘deal’ – Commerzbank Yesterday, the US government presented another ‘deal,’ the third following agreements with the UK and China, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

13:20 Could the ECB prevent a rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate? – Commerzbank In recent days, several members of the ECB Governing Council have expressed concern about the strength of the Euro (EUR). This marks a new tone from the central bankers.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:56 Central bank Gold buying recovers in May – ING Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of Gold to global Gold reserves in May, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:54 GBP: Political noise takes its toll – ING There was a surprisingly large sell-off in sterling yesterday after markets bought into the view that the fiscally responsible Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, could be forced to resign.

11:43 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 3.208% to 3.163% Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 3.208% to 3.163%

11:43 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.118% to 2.159% Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.118% to 2.159%

11:42 GBP/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC Pound Sterling (GBP) fell, alongside Gilts on signs of division within Labour party. GBP was last at 1.3671 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:40 OPEC+ expected to go with another large supply hike – ING Oil prices moved higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of a 3% gain on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:39 AUD/USD holds gains above 0.6560, the dollar eases ahead of the NFP report The Australian Dollar remains consolidating gains near the year-to-date highs at 0.6590.

11:37 EUR/USD: Near term consolidation – OCBC Euro (EUR) gains slowed overnight, in line with our caution. EUR was last at 1.18 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:34 EUR: ECB starting to express some concern over euro strength – ING The Financial Times is running a story today on ECB officials questioning whether the euro has strengthened too much.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (51.3) in June: Actual (52.8) United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (51.3) in June: Actual (52.8)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (50.7) in June: Actual (52) United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (50.7) in June: Actual (52)

11:27 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.3600 due to persistent bearish bias The USD/CAD pair extends its losses after registering nearly 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3590 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:05 USD/MXN falls below 18.80 as US Dollar remains subdued ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls USD/MXN edges lower after registering gains in the previous two successive sessions, trading around 18.80 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50) in June Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.2) in June Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (50.2) in June

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.4) in June Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.4) in June

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (50.4) in June Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (50.4) in June

10:52 EUR/USD steadies in cautious markets ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls The EUR/USD pair is practically flat on Thursday, trading right below 1.1800 at the time of writing, not far from the multi-year highs reached earlier this week.

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.5) in June: Actual (49.2) France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.5) in June: Actual (49.2)

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.6, above forecasts (48.7) in June France HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.6, above forecasts (48.7) in June

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.7) in June: Actual (52.1) Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.7) in June: Actual (52.1)

10:42 Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill clears procedural hurdle in US House of Representatives The United States (US) House of Representatives clears procedural hurdle, paving the way for the debate and the final vote on President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill.”

10:34 Pound Sterling regains composure after doubts over Chancellor Reeves fuel slump The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range around 1.3650 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Thursday.

10:18 WTI falls to near $66.00 due to concerns over weak US Oil demand West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $66.00 per barrel during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.9 above expectations (51) in June Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.9 above expectations (51) in June

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.37%, below expectations (1.45%) in June Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.37%, below expectations (1.45%) in June

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (35.2%) in June: Actual (35.05%) Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (35.2%) in June: Actual (35.05%)

09:56 Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 3:

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in June Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in June

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (0.1%) Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (0.1%)

09:07 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.08 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $66.75.

09:01 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 49.2 in June from previous 52.2 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 49.2 in June from previous 52.2

08:19 GBP/JPY remains under pressure around 196.00 amid rallying UK bond yields The GBP/JPY pair trades cautiously near 196.00 during the Asian session on Thursday after posting a fresh weekly low around 195.40 the previous day.

08:06 FX option expiries for Jul 3 NY cut FX option expiries for Jul 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

08:02 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 60.4, below expectations (60.7) in June India HSBC Services PMI came in at 60.4, below expectations (60.7) in June

08:02 India HSBC Composite PMI remains unchanged at 61 in June India HSBC Composite PMI remains unchanged at 61 in June

08:00 Nonfarm Payrolls set to show hiring environment in US labor market remained subdued in June The all-important United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

07:58 USD/CNF Price Forecast: Flat lines around 7.1620-7.1625; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus The USD/CNH pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third straight day on Thursday and remains close to the year-to-date low touched earlier this week.

07:57 USD/INR edges higher at open ahead of US NFP data The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a cautious note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 85.75 ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

07:49 USD/CHF holds losses near 0.7900 ahead of Swiss CPI data USD/CHF retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.7920 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair maintains its position around 0.7872, the lowest since September 2011, recorded on July 1.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:11 GBP/USD weakens below 1.3650 amid concerns over the UK debt position, US NFP data in focus The GBP/USD pair extends the decline to near 1.3625 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces some selling pressure amid a selloff in British government bonds.

06:39 EUR/USD trades around 1.1800, upside appears amid rising odds of Fed rate cuts EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.1800 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:59 EUR/JPY steadies around 169.50, with upside potential due to BoJ’s caution on rate hikes EUR/JPY remains steady following recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 169.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:51 Silver Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above the $35.40 horizontal support Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers near the $36.55-$36.60 region during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up to the top end of the weekly range.

05:41 S. Korea’s President Lee: US tariff negotiations looking very difficult South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said on Thursday that “US tariff negotiations looking very difficult.”

05:22 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against a bearish USD, ahead of US NFP report The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild positive bias against a bearish US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to a nearly one-month peak touched earlier this week.

05:14 Australian Dollar remains subdued following Trade Balance, China’s Services PMI data The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of key economic data.

04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI drops to 50.6 in June vs. 51 expected China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Thursday.

04:45 China Caixin Services PMI came in at 50.6, below expectations (51) in June China Caixin Services PMI came in at 50.6, below expectations (51) in June

04:31 Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous -2.4% to -2.7% in May Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous -2.4% to -2.7% in May

04:31 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 2238M below forecasts (5091M) in May Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 2238M below forecasts (5091M) in May

04:30 Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous 1.1% to 3.8% in May Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous 1.1% to 3.8% in May

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1523 vs. 7.1546 previous On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1523 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1546 and 7.1618 Reuters estimate.

04:04 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price down to -2.3% in June from previous 1.9% New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price down to -2.3% in June from previous 1.9%

03:59 US Dollar Index edges lower below 97.00 on downbeat US job data, Fed rate cut bets The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, remains on the defensive near 96.70 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above expectations (51.5) in June: Actual (51.7) Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above expectations (51.5) in June: Actual (51.7)

03:01 Ireland AIB Services PMI declined to 51.5 in June from previous 54.7 Ireland AIB Services PMI declined to 51.5 in June from previous 54.7

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥651.3B (June 27) vs ¥-524.3B Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥651.3B (June 27) vs ¥-524.3B

02:30 GBP/USD struggles to regain balance ahead of key labor data GBP/USD tumbled on Wednesday, falling back below the 1.3600 handle in a sharp plunge fueled by a sharp increase in UK bond yields.

02:08 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 144.00 and falls, as Trump slams Powell again The USD/JPY registered modest gains on Wednesday, with the pair closing up 0.18%, finishing the session below 143.70. As Thursday’s Asian session begins, the pair trades at 143.63, virtually unchanged.

02:01 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.6 (June) vs 51.2 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.6 (June) vs 51.2

02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.8, above forecasts (51.3) in June Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.8, above forecasts (51.3) in June

00:35 AUD/USD steadies ahead of trade data from Australia and US NFPs The Australian Dollar is trading flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday as both economies wait for the release of critical economic data on Thursday.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves: 410.2B (June) vs 404.6B South Korea FX Reserves: 410.2B (June) vs 404.6B

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